A real estate project under construction along the ancient Huai River in Huai'an City, Jiangsu Province, China on January 29, 2026.BEIJING — S&P Global Ratings has lowered its forecast for China property sales this year, barely two months into 2026.The firm said Sunday that primary real estate sales will likely drop by 10% to 14% this year, worse than the 5% to 8% decline for 2026 sales predicted back in October."This is a downturn so entrenched that only the government has capacity to absorb the excess inv ...

Core Viewpoint - Big Tech stocks experienced significant market cap losses, totaling over $1 trillion, leading to cautious trading in the premarket session Group 1: Market Performance - As of 6:12 a.m. ET, Oracle increased by 1.5% and Microsoft by 0.8%, while Meta decreased by 0.3%, Amazon by 0.1%, Alphabet by 0.6%, and Nvidia by approximately 1% after a previous rebound of 7.9% [1] Group 2: Capital Expenditure Trends - The market reacted negatively to rising expenditure outlooks from Big Tech companies, which reported a combined capital expenditure of around $120 billion for the fourth quarter, with projections reaching $660 billion by 2026, surpassing the GDP of nations like the UAE, Singapore, and Israel [2] Group 3: Industry Insights - Cloud companies are seeing increasing margins but face potential stock volatility due to macroeconomic challenges; however, management teams express confidence in their demand forecasting and capacity utilization by 2026 [3]

Core Insights - Lyft has officially launched teen accounts nationwide to compete with Uber, focusing on safety and communication tools for parents and drivers [1][2] - The new program allows passengers aged 13 to 17 to be matched with drivers, incorporating safety features like pin verification, real-time tracking, and recordings [2] - Lyft's CEO David Risher emphasized the importance of thoughtful development based on feedback from parents and teens [1] Company Strategy - The launch of teen accounts is part of Lyft's strategy to differentiate itself from competitors, particularly Uber, which introduced similar accounts in May 2023 [3] - Risher highlighted that drivers eligible to transport teens must have a high star rating and should not have a significant number of rider blocks [2] Market Context - Lyft's initiative comes after Uber expanded its teen account offering to over 50 countries last year, indicating a growing trend in the rideshare industry to cater to younger passengers [3]

Core Viewpoint - The European Commission is considering imposing interim measures on Meta to prevent the exclusion of third-party AI assistants from WhatsApp, indicating a preliminary view that Meta has breached EU antitrust rules [1][2]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions - The European Commission has informed Meta of its intention to impose "interim measures" to ensure that third-party AI assistants can continue to access WhatsApp during an ongoing investigation [1][2]. - Commissioner Teresa Ribera emphasized the need for swift action to protect effective competition in rapidly developing AI markets, stating that the interim measures aim to prevent Meta from harming competition irreparably in Europe [2]. Group 2: Policy Changes by Meta - In October, Meta updated its WhatsApp Business Solution Terms, effectively banning third-party general-purpose AI assistants from the application, with the new policy taking effect in January [3]. - The Commission's interim measures would require Meta to maintain access for third-party AI assistants under the previous terms while the investigation is ongoing [3]. Group 3: Meta's Response - A Meta spokesperson argued that there is no justification for EU intervention in the WhatsApp Business API, claiming that various AI options are available through app stores and other platforms [4]. - The spokesperson contended that the Commission's logic incorrectly assumes that the WhatsApp Business API is a key distribution channel for chatbots [4].

Core Viewpoint - NatWest announced a £2.7 billion ($3.7 billion) acquisition of Evelyn Partners, one of the U.K.'s largest wealth managers, leading to a decline of over 4% in its shares [1][2] Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition will double NatWest's total assets under management to £127 billion, increasing from £59 billion [1] - The deal is positioned to create the UK's leading Private Banking and Wealth Management business, enhancing scale and capabilities in a market with significant growth potential [2] Group 2: Executive Commentary - NatWest Group's CEO Paul Thwaite emphasized the strategic importance of the transaction for success in a growing market [2] - Evelyn Partners' CEO Paul Geddes described the acquisition as marking an "exciting new chapter" for the wealth manager [2]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. Treasury yields increased at the start of the week as investors anticipated upcoming economic data, including the delayed January jobs report [1] Treasury Yields Summary - The 10-year Treasury yield rose over 2 basis points to 4.231% [1] - The 30-year Treasury yield increased by 1 basis point to 4.874% [1] - The 2-year Treasury note yield climbed more than 1 basis point to 3.514% [1] - It is noted that one basis point is equivalent to 0.01%, and yields and prices move in opposite directions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Novo Nordisk shares increased by 8% following Hims & Hers' decision to withdraw its copycat weight-loss pill from the market due to potential legal threats from Novo Nordisk and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration [1] Group 1: Company Actions - Hims & Hers announced it would stop offering the compounded semaglutide pill, emphasizing its commitment to providing safe and affordable care to millions of Americans [2] - The decision came after constructive discussions with industry stakeholders regarding the compounded semaglutide pill [1] Group 2: Market Impact - The withdrawal of Hims & Hers' weight-loss pill positively impacted Novo Nordisk's stock, resulting in an 8% increase in share price [1]

Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) speaks to the media at the LDP headquarters on general election day in Tokyo, Japan, Feb. 8, 2026.Japan's Sanae Takaichi and her ruling Liberal Democratic Party secured an overwhelming mandate in Sunday's election, sweeping a supermajority — which means the LDP holds two-thirds or more seats in the Lower House — and ushering her back as the country's prime minister.The outcome gives Takaichi broad latitude to pursue h ...

Core Viewpoint - Japanese stocks are experiencing record highs following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's landslide victory, which is expected to lead to a weaker yen, rising equities, and higher government bond yields due to her dovish monetary policy stance and anticipated fiscal stimulus [1][3][4]. Group 1: Election Results and Market Reactions - Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) secured a supermajority with 316 seats, marking the largest election victory since World War Two, allowing her to push her legislative agenda more effectively [2]. - The Nikkei 225 index surpassed 57,000, reaching a record high, while the Topix index also hit an all-time peak of 3,825.67, exceeding pre-election expectations [4]. - Analysts believe the strong LDP win will enable more growth-friendly policies, boosting investor sentiment [4][5]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Bond Market Implications - Takaichi's victory is expected to revive the "Takaichi trade," characterized by a weaker yen and rising long-dated government bond yields, reflecting her dovish monetary policy [3]. - The yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond rose by 4 basis points to 2.27% following the election, indicating potential pressure on bonds due to increased government spending [6]. - Takaichi announced a record budget of 122 trillion yen for the upcoming financial year, marking a second consecutive year of record spending [6]. Group 3: Debt Concerns and Currency Movements - Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio is nearly 230%, making it the most indebted nation globally, which raises concerns about fiscal sustainability [7]. - Despite expectations of increased spending, Takaichi indicated that newly issued government bonds would remain below 30 trillion yen for the second consecutive year [13]. - Interestingly, the yen strengthened by 0.4% to 156.55 against the dollar after the election, reflecting Takaichi's commitment to fiscal sustainability [14].

Core Viewpoint - The private credit markets are experiencing increased uncertainty due to the emergence of AI-driven tools that may disrupt traditional software business models, particularly affecting software companies that are significant borrowers in the private lending space [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of AI on Software Companies - AI tools developed by Anthropic are designed to perform complex tasks that many software companies currently charge for, raising concerns about the potential weakening of traditional software business models [2]. - The software sector, which has been a favored area for private credit lenders since 2020, is now facing pressure as AI adoption could accelerate faster than companies can adapt [5][7]. - Software companies account for approximately 17% of loans held by U.S. business development companies, making them a significant focus for private credit lenders [6]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Financial Implications - Shares of major asset managers with substantial private credit franchises have declined significantly, with Ares Management falling over 12%, Blue Owl Capital losing over 8%, and KKR declining almost 10% [3]. - UBS Group has warned that default rates in U.S. private credit could rise to 13% in an aggressive disruption scenario, which is notably higher than the projected stress for leveraged loans and high-yield bonds [7]. - The private credit industry, valued at $3 trillion, is facing concerns over leverage, opaque valuations, and the risk of isolated problems becoming systemic issues [9]. Group 3: Credit Risk and Future Outlook - The potential for credit risk varies among software and services sector borrowers, depending on their position relative to AI advancements [10]. - Payment-in-kind (PIK) loans, which allow borrowers to defer interest payments, are prevalent among software companies, posing risks if their financial situations deteriorate [11]. - Experts indicate that while the private credit industry may currently absorb losses, ongoing credit growth could lead to significant credit problems in the future [13].