Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates aggressively in early 2026 due to labor market weakness, inflation uncertainty, and political pressure, according to Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi [1][2]. Group 1: Labor Market and Economic Conditions - The job market is still flagging, particularly in early 2026, which will lead to insufficient job growth and rising unemployment, prompting the Fed to cut rates [2]. - Zandi anticipates three cuts of a quarter percentage point each before mid-year 2026, contrasting with market expectations of only two cuts later in the year [1][3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Outlook - Current market pricing indicates a first cut not until at least April 2026, with a second cut likely around September, while Fed officials are even more cautious, expecting only one cut throughout the year [3][4]. - The Fed's individual officials' expectations suggest a tepid pace for any potential reductions, with recent minutes indicating that the decision for a cut was a close call [4]. Group 3: Political Influence - The potential for President Trump to reshape the Fed's hierarchy adds uncertainty, as he currently has three appointees on the board and is likely to appoint another loyalist soon [5][6]. - Trump's advocacy for lower interest rates may lead to increased political pressure on the Fed, especially with midterm congressional elections approaching [7].

Core Insights - Nike shares experienced a 3% increase in premarket trading following insider purchases, indicating potential confidence in the company's future performance [1] - Apple CEO Tim Cook significantly increased his stake in Nike by acquiring approximately 50,000 shares, representing a nearly 90% rise in his holdings [1] - Other board members also increased their investments, with Robert Holmes Swan adding around 8,700 shares, a 24% increase, and Nike CEO Elliott Hill acquiring about 16,400 shares valued at $1 million, resulting in a personal stake growth of over 7% [2]

One kilogram and a five hundred gram gold bars next to one kilogram silver bars at The Vaults Group gold dealers arranged in Barcelona, Spain, on Monday, April 28, 2025.Gold and silver prices lost ground on Wednesday as investors booked profits after a historic annual rally and exchange operator CME Group hiked the margins on precious metal futures for the second time in the space of a week.Spot gold prices fell 0.8% to $4,313.59 per ounce at 7:50 a.m. ET, extending losses in the run-up to the new year. The ...

This is CNBC's Morning Squawk newsletter. Subscribe here to receive future editions in your inbox.Happy Wednesday and New Year's Eve. I've decided that there are three main groups of holiday observers this year: Those going to parties or watching the Times Square ball drop at home; those doing late-night workout classes or races; and those going to AMC viewings of the "Stranger Things" finale.This newsletter normally walks you through five things to know before the market opens. Today, that list would inclu ...

In this articleSATSVSATPLONDSATROCharlie ErgenKarl Gehring | Dever Post | Getty ImagesWall Street grew increasingly obsessed with the artificial intelligence boom this year, pouring money into chips, data centers and applications. But investors looking beyond Silicon Valley found outsized returns in another location: Space. Some of the year's biggest market winners were defense companies that benefited from renewed interest in space exploration and military reindustrialization. President Donald Trump's mili ...

On Dec. 8, Federal prosecutors in Texas unsealed documents that revealed an investigation into a massive smuggling network that stretched across the U.S. and the world. Dubbed "Operation Gatekeeper" by the feds, the investigation wasn't focused on drug smuggling or stolen goods but rather an alleged secret, underground network of suppliers for Nvidia's graphic processing units, or GPUs. Such chips are the backbone of the AI race, and can be used for military or civilian purposes. The government said a hidde ...

Core Viewpoint - Retail investors have demonstrated significant growth and sophistication in their trading strategies, achieving strong returns in 2025 by effectively buying the dip during market downturns, challenging previous perceptions of their investing capabilities [2][3][12]. Retail Investor Performance - Retail investors capitalized on market dips, with 2025 being the second-best year for dip-buying since the early 1990s, according to Bespoke Investment Group [3]. - Individual traders purchased over $3 billion in equities on April 3, 2025, during a market decline, showcasing their willingness to invest amid volatility [7]. - Retail investors' portfolios outperformed institutional baskets tied to artificial intelligence and software, indicating a higher profit-to-loss ratio [5]. Shift in Investment Focus - From May 2025 onward, retail investors shifted their focus from single stocks to exchange-traded funds (ETFs), particularly the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), which saw inflows surpassing the last five years combined [4]. - The gold-focused ETF experienced a record surge of over 65% in 2025, reflecting the growing interest in commodities amid market fluctuations [4]. Market Sentiment and Strategy - Retail investors have been more accurate in their market reactions compared to institutional investors, particularly during emotionally driven trades [9]. - The "TACO trade" strategy, which encourages buying stocks during market downturns caused by policy decisions, has gained traction among retail investors [10]. Evolution of Retail Investors - The participation of retail investors surged in 2025, with flows increasing over 50% from the previous year, reaching levels not seen since the meme stock craze of early 2021 [13]. - More than one-third of 25-year-olds moved significant sums to investment accounts since turning 22, indicating a growing trend of younger investors entering the market [12]. Changing Perceptions - The narrative surrounding retail investors has shifted from being viewed as "dumb money" to being recognized for their increasing sophistication and ability to make informed investment decisions [14][15]. - Retail investors are now seen as central to market dynamics, with their strategies aligning more closely with those of institutional investors [18].

Core Viewpoint - Renowned investor Michael Burry has denied shorting Tesla's shares despite labeling the company as "ridiculously overvalued" [1][2]. Group 1: Investor Insights - Burry clarified his position on Tesla after previously expressing concerns about its stock valuation in a paid Substack newsletter [2]. - He has recently made headlines for a tech short bet, indicating that major U.S. companies may be using aggressive accounting practices to inflate profits related to the AI boom [2]. Group 2: Company Performance - Burry's comments on Tesla coincided with the company's unusual decision to publish sales estimates, which suggest a lower-than-expected outlook for vehicle deliveries [3].

Core Insights - The Champagne industry is facing significant challenges related to labor exploitation and declining sales, particularly due to recent scandals involving the treatment of migrant workers and external economic pressures [2][5][15]. Labor Conditions - Approximately 120,000 seasonal workers harvest grapes across 34,000 hectares in France, but reports have emerged of exploitation and mistreatment, particularly of foreign and undocumented migrants [2][3]. - The 2023 harvest was marred by the deaths of at least four migrant workers during an extreme heatwave, highlighting poor working conditions, including excessive hours, low pay, and inadequate safety measures [3][5]. - A trial in 2025 resulted in convictions for human trafficking and exploitation of over 50 West African workers, revealing "hellish" living conditions and the use of subcontractors by Champagne houses to evade responsibility [6][7][9]. Industry Response - The Comité Champagne acknowledged the damage to the industry's reputation from the court case and has committed to a "zero tolerance" approach towards future abuses, launching a "Together for the Champagne Harvest" action plan to improve worker conditions [9][10]. - Major producers like Moët & Chandon have begun investing in better accommodations for workers, with a reported investment of €1.5 million ($1.76 million) to increase capacity for seasonal workers [11]. Sales and Market Trends - The Champagne industry has seen a decline in shipments, with 299 million bottles shipped in 2023, down 8.2% from the previous year, and 271 million bottles in 2024, attributed to falling global demand and U.S. import tariffs [15][16]. - The 2024 harvest was affected by adverse weather conditions, resulting in lower yields, while the 2025 harvest was noted for its high quality due to better weather [4][14]. Internal Challenges - Labor unions have called for strikes over issues such as the cancellation of year-end bonuses and demands for better pay, indicating ongoing tensions within the workforce [16][17]. - The industry is under pressure to address both external market challenges and internal labor disputes, which could further impact sales and reputation [17].

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on Dec. 30, 2025 in New York City.The U.S. 10-year Treasury was slightly lower on Wednesday as investors await economic data and take stock ahead of the New Year.The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped by 2 basis points to 4.108%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was also last seen more than 1 basis point lower at 3.442%. Yields and prices move in opposite directions. One basis point equals 0.01%. ...