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再度缩量,北交所本轮会回调多少?
北证三板研习社· 2025-05-28 13:33
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in the Bei Zheng market, highlighting a significant reduction in trading volume and the impact of regulatory actions on market sentiment [1][3][5]. Market Performance - The Bei Zheng market experienced a trading volume of 24.1 billion, a decrease of 1.3 billion from the previous day, indicating a bearish sentiment with selling pressure dominating [1]. - The Bei Zheng 50 index has retraced approximately 6.86% from its peak of 1500 points [3]. - Historical data shows that regulatory interventions have led to market corrections of 15-20%, suggesting potential support levels around 1200-1275 points based on the recent high of 1500.31 [12]. Regulatory Impact - Recent regulatory actions by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) and the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) targeted "illegal stock recommendations," which are expected to dampen the activity in small-cap stocks [3][7]. - The article notes that similar regulatory crackdowns occurred in December 2022, leading to significant market declines [5]. Historical Context - The article references a previous market correction that began on November 8, 2024, which saw a decline of about 20% following regulatory actions [5]. - The market's response to extreme events, such as the "equal tariffs" incident, resulted in rapid fluctuations, but the market quickly recovered, indicating resilience [9]. Support Levels - The article identifies key support levels for the Bei Zheng 50 index, suggesting that the range of 1200-1275 could serve as a reference for potential stabilization after the recent declines [14].
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北证三板研习社· 2025-05-27 12:12
①入群请遵守群公告; ⑤如果您很希望短期内加入群聊,请在后台留言时一并留下微信号,仅提出入群要求我们无法拉您进 群。 ②短期内创建大量相似的群聊会导致被限制的可能性增加,如果您同时加入多个群聊,会进一步增大被 限制的概率,因此请只加入任意一个群; 我们开放新的微信粉丝群如下,欢迎各位粉丝加入。如若您加群时发现人数已满,或群状态异常,请勿 着急,我们会保证每位活跃粉丝入群。 如果您已加入任意群聊,请勿重复添加。 再次声明: ④群聊只是供大家基于公开信息进行合理、正面的交流讨论,不涉及北研君原创的更多内容,请各位粉 丝不必执着于短期内必须入群; ③未来我们会以较低频率建群,请各位粉丝不要过度焦虑,我们已采取多方面措施降低本公众号再次被 限制的概率,短期内不会再丢失,最终我们会保证所有活跃粉丝都在群内; ...
临近端午,北证会给大家“包粽子”吗?
北证三板研习社· 2025-05-27 12:12
这周过完就是端午节了,A股即将迎来又一个具有强"窗口效应"的节假日——统计历史表现, 端午前后 股市普遍表现不佳 ,因而被股民们戏称为"端午劫"。 那咱北交所,会不会给大家包个翠绿的粽子呢? 再看2023年,表现为节前涨、节后跌。拉长到2~3个月看, 这个端午假期充当了下跌"中继"的角色 。 ③在每个A股停盘、但全球市场开市的假期,市场都会博弈假期期间的全球事件影响,市值下半年开启 前,经济数据密集出炉,因此 端午的节假日效应较其他节假日更剧烈 。 当然,这些都是从某些角度去尝试解释端午节A股"包粽子"的现象,如果从情绪和交易的角度来看, 当 市场上信"窗口效应"的人够多,这个"窗口效应"就越有可能发生 ,不论底层逻辑立不立得住,我们都不 应该忽视其发生的概率,尤其是北交所这样的"交易市"和情绪"宣泄口"。 以北证50指数为例,去年端午前,指数一波下跌7.58%,节后涨了一周,随后继续下跌。不过当时北交 所整体在不断缩量、持续向下创新低, 也不能全部归结为端午窗口的原因 。 再往前,2022年的北交所和北证50指数的参考意义就比较小了,我们用 小盘成长(399376.SZ)和中证 2000(932000.CS ...
弱势行情,次新股现在可以参与吗?
北证三板研习社· 2025-05-25 12:51
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of newly listed stocks (次新股) during the recent adjustment periods of the North Exchange 50 Index (北证50), questioning whether these stocks can provide investment opportunities in a weak market environment. Group 1: Market Performance Analysis - The North Exchange 50 Index has experienced five adjustment periods in the last two years, with varying degrees of decline, including -11.67%, -18.91%, -5.05%, -11.38%, and -4.60% during these periods [3][9]. - In the first adjustment period (2024.11.8 to 2024.11.28), the average return of five newly listed stocks was -2.54%, significantly outperforming the index [4][9]. - In the second period (2024.12.10 to 2025.1.06), the index fell by -18.91%, while the average return of seven newly listed stocks was -20.33%, indicating a lack of resilience compared to the index [6][9]. - The third period (2025.1.17 to 2025.2.5) saw the index decline by -5.05%, with newly listed stocks averaging a drop of -4.75%, again showing no superior performance [7][9]. - In the fourth period (2025.3.18 to 2025.4.3), the index fell by -11.38%, while newly listed stocks averaged a decline of -16.35% [9]. - The fifth period (2025.4.23 to 2025.4.29) had the index down by -4.60%, with newly listed stocks declining by -11.59%, further confirming the trend of underperformance [9]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Newly Listed Stocks - The significant outperformance of newly listed stocks in the first adjustment period was attributed to the strong performance of a specific stock, 聚星科技, which saw consecutive price increases following its listing [11][14]. - The article suggests that the initiation of a rally in newly listed stocks often depends on the performance of a new stock on its second trading day, which can lead to a broader positive impact on other newly listed stocks [14][16]. - It is noted that when a newly listed stock exceeds market expectations on its first trading day, it can positively influence the performance of nearby newly listed stocks, although this effect is limited in a declining market [15][16].
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北证三板研习社· 2025-05-25 12:51
③未来我们会以较低频率建群,请各位粉丝不要过度焦虑,我们已采取多方面措施降低本公众号再次被 限制的概率,短期内不会再丢失,最终我们会保证所有活跃粉丝都在群内; 我们开放新的微信粉丝群如下,欢迎各位粉丝加入。如若您加群时发现人数已满,或群状态异常,请勿 着急,我们会保证每位活跃粉丝入群。 如果您已加入任意群聊,请勿重复添加。 再次声明: ①入群请遵守群公告; ②短期内创建大量相似的群聊会导致被限制的可能性增加,如果您同时加入多个群聊,会进一步增大被 限制的概率,因此请只加入任意一个群; ④群聊只是供大家基于公开信息进行合理、正面的交流讨论,不涉及北研君原创的更多内容,请各位粉 丝不必执着于短期内必须入群; ⑤如果您很希望短期内加入群聊,请在后台留言时一并留下微信号,仅提出入群要求我们无法拉您进 群。 ...
-6%巨震!北交究竟该如何生存?
北证三板研习社· 2025-05-22 13:11
Core Viewpoint - The recent significant decline in the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) is attributed to the overvaluation of key stocks and insufficient trading volume, leading to a market correction [1][5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - Only 21 stocks rose in the recent market downturn, with the "BSE 50" index dropping by 6.15% and the "BSE All A" index falling by 5.62%, marking the largest single-day decline of the year, excluding the "reciprocal tariffs" event [1]. - The stock "Jinbo Biological" (832982.BJ) significantly influenced the index, having risen over 150% since March, leading to a valuation of over 60 times earnings, prompting profit-taking and contributing to the index's decline [2][4]. Group 2: Trading Volume and Market Dynamics - The trading volume during the recent rally was insufficient to support new highs, with the BSE All A index not surpassing previous highs despite a notable increase since early April [4]. - A lack of strong market leaders following the end of speculative trading in certain sectors has led to a predictable market retreat, as indicated by various objective indicators [6]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Future Outlook - Historical patterns suggest that significant declines are not uncommon in the BSE, and the current environment may not lead to prolonged downturns, presenting potential buying opportunities [5]. - The recent spike in trading volume for the CSI 2000 index raised concerns about a repeat of past market behaviors, contributing to heightened fear and accelerating the market's decline [7].
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北证三板研习社· 2025-05-22 13:11
我们开放新的微信粉丝群如下,欢迎各位粉丝加入。如若您加群时发现人数已满,或群状态异常,请勿 着急,我们会保证每位活跃粉丝入群。 如果您已加入任意群聊,请勿重复添加。 再次声明: ④群聊只是供大家基于公开信息进行合理、正面的交流讨论,不涉及北研君原创的更多内容,请各位粉 丝不必执着于短期内必须入群; ⑤如果您很希望短期内加入群聊,请在后台留言时一并留下微信号,仅提出入群要求我们无法拉您进 群。 ②短期内创建大量相似的群聊会导致被限制的可能性增加,如果您同时加入多个群聊,会进一步增大被 限制的概率,因此请只加入任意一个群; ③未来我们会以较低频率建群,请各位粉丝不要过度焦虑,我们已采取多方面措施降低本公众号再次被 限制的概率,短期内不会再丢失,最终我们会保证所有活跃粉丝都在群内; ①入群请遵守群公告; ...
北证何以破新高?复盘本轮题材轮动节奏
北证三板研习社· 2025-05-21 13:24
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant divergence in the North Exchange market, highlighting the rise of the North Exchange 50 Index to a historical closing price of 1479.81 and a peak of 1500.31, while the North Exchange All A Index experienced a decline, indicating a selective market performance driven by specific stocks and themes [1][3]. Group 1: Index Performance - The North Exchange 50 Index has increased by 4% over the past three days, with Jinbo Bio contributing significantly to this rise, accounting for half of the index's gains with a 20% increase [3]. - Jinbo Bio's stock surged by 9.17% in a single day, reaching a total market capitalization of 500 billion, which represents a 10% weight in the North Exchange 50 Index [1][3]. Group 2: Market Themes and Stock Movements - Following the "May Day" holiday, military stocks began to show unusual activity, with Qifeng Precision becoming a leader, experiencing a cumulative increase of 119% over three days [3][7]. - The shipping theme gained traction after a trade agreement between China and the U.S., with Guohang Ocean's stock rising by 81.09% from May 12 to May 14 [7]. - A fusion device completion at a laboratory in Hefei led to a 51.54% increase in Changfu Co., a key player in nuclear technology stocks, over four days [10]. Group 3: Regulatory Impact - The release of the new merger and acquisition regulations by the China Securities Regulatory Commission prompted significant market reactions, with Wuxin Tunnel Equipment experiencing a 69% increase following two strong trading days [13].
定向可转债发行加速,北证再融资的新方向?
北证三板研习社· 2025-05-20 09:50
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence and characteristics of targeted convertible bonds in the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE), highlighting their differences from those in the A-share market and their implications for financing and corporate restructuring [1][6]. Group 1: Introduction of Targeted Convertible Bonds - In February, Youji Co., Ltd. announced the issuance of targeted convertible bonds, marking a precedent for the BSE [1]. - The BSE has established regulatory guidance for refinancing, supporting companies in issuing targeted convertible bonds [1]. Group 2: Historical Context of Targeted Convertible Bonds - The history of targeted convertible bonds in A-shares dates back to 2018, initially aimed at supporting mergers and acquisitions [2]. - As of now, 63 targeted convertible bonds have been issued in A-shares, with a total scale of approximately 21.5 billion, accounting for about 5% of the overall convertible bond market [2]. Group 3: Characteristics of Targeted Convertible Bonds - Targeted convertible bonds can be categorized into payment tools for mergers and acquisitions and financing tools, with the former being more prevalent [3]. - The three targeted convertible bonds issued this year by companies like Fulede and Poly Developments are significant in size, with Fulede's bond amounting to 6.56 billion, used as a payment tool for major asset restructuring [4]. Group 4: Features of BSE Targeted Convertible Bonds - The initial conversion price for BSE bonds is set at 120% of the average price over 20 trading days, making conversion more challenging and enhancing the bond's characteristics [5]. - The redemption and repurchase thresholds for BSE bonds differ from those in the A-share market, with BSE bonds having higher redemption thresholds [5]. Group 5: Implications for Companies - The targeted convertible bonds in the BSE are closely related to the companies' main business, aiming to enhance their competitive edge [6]. - The higher debt characteristics of these bonds may reduce their attractiveness, suggesting that targeted placements could be a more favorable option for companies [6].