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新高之后何去何从?关注隐藏的分化信息
北证三板研习社· 2025-05-19 13:14
Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the North Exchange 50 Index, reaching a closing price of 1456.19 points, marks a new high since March 18, 2023, but the overall market sentiment remains cautious due to low trading volumes and a lack of broad-based recovery among stocks [1][3]. Trading Volume and Market Dynamics - The trading volume on the day of the index's rise was only 326 billion, which is 73% of the 448 billion seen on March 18, indicating insufficient support for a sustainable breakout to new highs [1]. - The divergence between the North Exchange 50 Index and the overall North Exchange A Index suggests a preference for large-cap stocks, with only 23% of stocks in the North Exchange showing gains exceeding the index's rise [4][5]. Historical Comparisons - Historical data shows that previous successful breakouts of the North Exchange 50 Index were accompanied by stronger performances from the North Exchange A Index, indicating a more unified market movement [5]. - The current market is characterized by increasing divergence, with the North Exchange 50 Index outperforming the North Exchange A Index significantly during recent attempts to reach new highs [3][5]. Concentration of Trading Activity - There is a noticeable trend of trading activity concentrating on non-North Exchange 50 component stocks, suggesting a lower psychological threshold for the overall market compared to the North Exchange 50 Index [7]. - The market's current state, with significant individual stock divergence and a lack of broad profitability, indicates that investors should be cautious and wait for more favorable entry points rather than chasing high prices [7].
【说明】请各位粉丝入群
北证三板研习社· 2025-05-19 13:14
③未来我们会以较低频率建群,请各位粉丝不要过度焦虑,我们已采取多方面措施降低本公众号再次被 限制的概率,短期内不会再丢失,最终我们会保证所有活跃粉丝都在群内; ④群聊只是供大家基于公开信息进行合理、正面的交流讨论,不涉及北研君原创的更多内容,请各位粉 丝不必执着于短期内必须入群; ⑤如果您很希望短期内加入群聊,请在后台留言时一并留下微信号,仅提出入群要求我们无法拉您进 群。 我们开放新的微信粉丝群如下,欢迎各位粉丝加入。如若您加群时发现人数已满,或群状态异常,请勿 着急,我们会保证每位活跃粉丝入群。 如果您已加入任意群聊,请勿重复添加。 再次声明: ①入群请遵守群公告; ②短期内创建大量相似的群聊会导致被限制的可能性增加,如果您同时加入多个群聊,会进一步增大被 限制的概率,因此请只加入任意一个群; ...
又一次逼近新高,这次能冲过去吗?
北证三板研习社· 2025-05-15 13:29
Core Viewpoint - The North Exchange's recent performance indicates a potential breakthrough above the 1500-point mark, driven by significant trading volumes during key index movements [1][9][14] Trading Volume Analysis - Historical peaks of the North Exchange 50 Index were accompanied by high trading volumes, with notable instances including a record of 303 billion on November 27, 2023, and 332 billion on October 8, 2024 [1][3] - The index approached new highs with trading volumes of 334 billion on October 18 and 454 billion on October 21, indicating strong market interest [4] - The highest closing price of 1408.9 on November 7, 2024, was supported by a trading volume of 585 billion, while the following day saw a volume of 512 billion [6] Patterns in Trading Volume - Two key patterns were identified: 1. Breaking historical highs requires a corresponding increase in trading volume, although it does not need to exceed previous records [9] 2. Near historical highs, achieving 70-80% of the volume from the last peak is often sufficient for further upward movement [9][12] Recent Trading Dynamics - Recent trading volumes during upward movements have shown a consistent pattern of being 70-80% of previous peak volumes, suggesting potential challenges in breaking new highs [12][14] - The North Exchange 50 Index has experienced consecutive trading volumes that are significantly lower than required for a sustained breakout, indicating a possible decline in momentum [14] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The analysis suggests that without substantial new positive catalysts, the North Exchange may struggle to maintain upward momentum and break new highs, as current trading volumes reflect a cautious market sentiment [14]
首日涨幅创纪录,北证再现市值“倒挂”?
北证三板研习社· 2025-05-14 13:53
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the exceptional performance of TianGong Co., Ltd. on its debut at the Beijing Stock Exchange, with a first-day increase of 411.93%, marking it as the largest first-day gain for a new stock this year [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - TianGong's first-day increase of 411.93% surpasses other notable stocks such as XingTu Measurement Control (+407.23%) and HongHai Technology (+246.14%) [1]. - The stock continued to rise the next day with a trading volume turnover rate of 53%, indicating strong investor interest and higher expectations [1]. - In the historical context of the Beijing Stock Exchange, TianGong's performance ranks fifth, with the top four stocks experiencing significant declines in subsequent days, suggesting potential "bubble" characteristics in their initial gains [1]. Group 2: Market Capitalization and Parent-Child Company Dynamics - After two days of trading, TianGong's total market capitalization reached 13.2 billion, placing it in the top five of the Beijing Stock Exchange [2]. - TianGong is the first company to be listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange as a spin-off from a Hong Kong-listed parent company, TianGong International, which has a market cap of 5.2 billion [4]. - The article notes instances of "market cap inversion" where the child company (TianGong) has a higher market cap than its parent company (TianGong International), reflecting the market's preference for high-growth prospects [5][6]. Group 3: Market Trends and Implications - The article suggests that the enthusiasm for low-priced new stocks and favorable market conditions, such as the easing of trade disputes, contributed to TianGong's successful debut [2]. - The significant pricing difference between the primary and secondary markets may attract more companies to list on the Beijing Stock Exchange, enhancing its capacity to accommodate new listings [6]. - The liquidity premium observed in the market indicates a robust environment for new stocks, fostering a positive cycle of stock performance and investor interest [6].
【说明】有关近期微信粉丝群事项的说明
北证三板研习社· 2025-05-14 13:53
④群聊只是供大家基于公开信息进行合理、正面的交流讨论,不涉及北研君原创的更多内容,请各位粉 丝不必执着于短期内必须入群; ⑤如果您很希望短期内加入群聊,请在后台留言时一并留下微信号,仅提出入群要求我们无法拉您进 群。 ②短期内创建大量相似的群聊会导致被限制的可能性增加,如果您同时加入多个群聊,会进一步增大被 限制的概率,因此请只加入任意一个群; ③未来我们会适度放慢建群节奏,请各位粉丝不要过度焦虑,我们已采取多方面措施降低本公众号再次 被限制的概率,短期内不会再丢失,最终我们会保证所有活跃粉丝都在群内; 近期我们陆续创建了一些微信粉丝群聊,大家入群的积极性很高,其中有部分群聊状况不太稳定,导致 有粉丝在后台急切询问,现我们做一个统一回复和说明: ①入群请遵守群公告; ...
天工股份今日上市,超低价的消费电子钛件厂商
北证三板研习社· 2025-05-12 12:10
Core Viewpoint - Tian Gong Co., Ltd. has listed today with an issue price of 3.94 CNY per share, corresponding to a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 14.99 times, indicating a potential undervaluation compared to peers in the titanium alloy industry [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The company is a producer of titanium alloy materials, primarily used in the consumer electronics sector [1] - The expected total market capitalization after listing is 2.548 billion CNY, with a circulating market value of 282 million CNY [1] Group 2: Market Valuation - The company's 15 times issuance valuation is significantly lower than that of peers such as BaoTi Co., Ltd. (26 times) and Western Superconducting Technologies (38 times) [1] - Based on industry pricing, a price-to-earnings ratio of 30-40 times suggests a potential stock price range of 8-12 CNY [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Trading Strategy - From a trading perspective, it is advisable to take profits on the first day of trading, with specific price levels dependent on market sentiment [1] - The company's titanium materials are linked to themes in consumer electronics, Apple concepts, and 3D printing, which may drive market interest [1] - Historical patterns indicate that the spring and autumn product launch windows in May and September could enhance stock activity, as discussions around new product technologies and materials typically arise about a month after these events [1]
北证50指数6月版名单预测,哪5家公司或将入选?
北证三板研习社· 2025-05-12 12:10
根据北证50指数调整规则,6月第二个周五的下一个交易日(即6月16日),北证50指数样本股将进行今 年第二次调整。关于指数调整规则详见: 究竟多少总市值才能保住北证50指数样本股地位? 按照样本股调整规则,在剔除上市时长和日均成交额不达标的公司后,按照日均总市值从高往低排序, 得出排名前50中有10家为新进公司。由于每次调整不超过10%,按照我们一贯的算法,10家公司按从前 往后的顺序排列如下, 其中前五只是利尔达、万源通、铜冠矿建、万达轴承和ST云创 ,6-10名为一诺 威、林泰新材、同惠电子、纬达光电和雷神科技。 免责声明: 文章中的数据和资料来自于公司财报、券商研报、行业报告、企业官网、公众号、百度百科等公开资料, 本人力求报告文章的内容及观点客观公正,但不保证其准确性、完整性、及时性等。文章中的信息或观点不构成任何 投资建议,投资人须对任何自主决定的投资行为负责,本人不对因使用本文内容所引发的直接或间接损失负任何责 任。 另外特别说明,我们尊重知识产权,如认为内容侵犯您的权益,请及时在后台联系我们(可私信"侵权沟通"获得我们 的联系方式),我们将第一时间核查处理。 标、同享科技和凯德石英 。被调出北证 ...
北证一季度报掘金,哪些低估值价值股正等待被挖掘?速看!
北证三板研习社· 2025-05-11 13:12
Core Viewpoint - The overall valuation level of the Beijing Stock Exchange is considered high, with a median P/E ratio of 50.34 and an average of 68.9, but some companies still show investment value based on their performance and valuation [1] Group 1: Continuous High-Performance Stocks - This group consists of companies that have maintained positive growth in non-recurring net profit for three consecutive years, with Q1 growth not based on a low base from the previous year [2] - Among these, Tongli Co. has the lowest valuation at 11.2 times, with a Q1 non-recurring net profit growth rate of 60.66%, driven by increased sales of high-value products in the new energy and unmanned sectors, as well as overseas market expansion [2] - Other companies in this group, such as Kaifa Technology and Deyuan Pharmaceutical, also show double-digit growth in revenue and net profit, with Kaifa's growth primarily due to increased overseas demand [2][3] Group 2: Companies with High Exposure to the U.S. Market - This group includes companies with a high proportion of sales to the U.S., facing uncertainty in Q2 performance due to tariff impacts, with Q1 growth possibly influenced by preemptive stocking by U.S. clients [4] - Litong Technology has the lowest valuation in this group at 18.98 times, benefiting from recovery in downstream demand in the traditional engineering machinery sector [5] - Other companies like Jianbang Technology and Bond Co. also have significant sales exposure to the U.S. automotive parts market, with varying degrees of performance influenced by last year's low base [4][5] Group 3: Companies with Low Last Year’s Performance Base & Others - This group features companies with low performance bases from the previous year, leading to impressive Q1 growth, as well as those with relatively low valuations but promising full-year outlooks [6] - Qingju Technology, with the lowest valuation, is focused on debt restructuring but has shown a decline in Q1 performance, despite having a substantial order backlog [6][7] - Kangnong Seed Industry, despite a decline in Q1 revenue and net profit, remains a strong contender in the seed industry with expectations for future growth [7]
北交一季报揭牌,揭秘股东名单隐藏信息——
北证三板研习社· 2025-05-08 12:55
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the financial performance of companies listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) for the year 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, highlighting a decline in revenue and profit, as well as changes in shareholder structure and institutional investment behavior [1]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, out of 265 listed companies on the BSE, 225 were profitable, representing 85%, a decrease of 4 percentage points from 89% in 2023 [1]. - Total revenue for 2024 was 180.845 billion, and net profit was 11.062 billion, reflecting year-on-year declines of 2.34% and 22.18% respectively [1]. - Excluding three companies, total revenue and net profit saw declines of 2.68% and 24.18% respectively [1]. - Among the 265 companies, 170 experienced revenue growth year-on-year, but only 105 saw profit growth, indicating significant pressure on BSE companies [1]. Shareholder Structure and Trends - In the first quarter of 2025, the average number of shareholders per company increased from 6,412 to 7,016, a growth of 15.97%, while the average shareholding per shareholder decreased by approximately 10% [1]. - The proportion of shares held by the top ten shareholders dropped from 26.59% to 23.90%, indicating a trend towards a more dispersed shareholding structure [1]. - The average institutional ownership of circulating shares fluctuated between 17% and 19%, showing a strong correlation with the overall market trend [1]. Notable Investor Activity - The article highlights the activities of a prominent investor, Zhou Xinga, known for his significant involvement in small-cap stocks, with a notable presence in the top ten shareholder lists [3][4]. - Zhou's portfolio in the first quarter of 2025 included 19 stocks, with 12 outperforming the BSE 50 index, achieving a success rate of 63% [4][5]. - His holdings showed an average increase of 42.53% over a quarter, with a success rate of 100% for the stocks held [5][6]. Investment Strategy Insights - Zhou's investment strategy appears to focus on small market capitalization stocks with high volatility and poor performance metrics, suggesting a preference for speculative trading rather than fundamental analysis [7]. - The article suggests that while Zhou's approach may yield short-term gains, it may not be suitable for all investors due to varying risk tolerances and market conditions [5][7].
华为鸿蒙掀涨停潮,北证谁的血统最纯正?
北证三板研习社· 2025-05-06 23:47
2.艾融软件: 公司与华为在硬件、数据库、欧拉操作系统、鸿蒙操作系统、鸿蒙生态等领域 开展了全 面合作 ,公司具有华为开发者联盟的生态市场服务商和 HarmonyOS 开发服务商的资质,曾获华 为"2024 年度鸿蒙生态开发服务商卓越奖"。 3.荣亿精密: 公司生产用于3C的金属零部件,终端用于华为产品。 4.豪声电子: 公司生产电声元器件/音响类产品, 华勤技术为公司核心客户之一 ,公司产品终端用于华 为产品。 "红五月"第一天,沪深京三市放量大涨,北证50指数全天收涨3.21%,1373.90点的收盘价创下今年3月 18 日 1441.88 点 ( 历 史 最 高 ) 以 来 的 最 高 值 。 这 日 大 涨 的 "C 位 " 非 华 为 鸿 蒙 莫 属 , 常 山 北 明 (000158.SZ)等老牌"纯血"鸿蒙概念股再掀涨停潮。 行情主要的催化就是华为官宣要在5月22日的春季发布会上发布系列新产品,其中最受关注的是鸿蒙PC (北研君之前在 《5月北交所有哪些催化事件?》 一文中提到)。当前微软对华为的Windows系统授权 即将到期,华为恰在此时正式推出首款鸿蒙PC,完成了"1+8+N" 全场景生态 ...