So here you can see home sellers versus home buyers and there's a a big imbalance developing here suggesting that the market is very weak and that the buyers are probably not going to move unless they have a good reason. Either interest rates come down or prices come down and you can see here what's going on with volume very low by historical standards. I can tell you in in the late 70s when I was in college and started in this business, this metric was at five million units.And to see it at 4 million now a ...

Infrastructure Development - Starlink provides internet infrastructure to communities lacking fiber optics or government investment [1] - This enables internet access in previously unconnected regions at low friction and cost [1] Financial Infrastructure - Stablecoins provide financial infrastructure to regions lacking formal property rights or digital infrastructure [1] - Crypto and blockchain rails enable financial transactions via smartphone [1] - These transactions are frictionless, similar to Starlink's internet service [1]

Stablecoin Definition and Types - Stablecoins are tokens minted on-chain pegged to a dollar value, leveraging blockchain benefits without the volatility of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin [4] - There are two main types: reserve-backed stablecoins (e.g., Circle, USDT) with claims to underlying reserves, and collateralized debt positions (e.g., DAI) requiring over-collateralization [5] Market Dynamics and Dominance - Stablecoins reinforce the US dollar's dominance, as Bitcoin and Ether are often quoted in USD-denominated stablecoins, creating demand [7] - Tether and Circle dominate the market with approximately 85% market share, with Tether having a market cap of about 160 billion and Circle around 60 billion [10] - Circle is more regulated, especially with its IPO and the Genius Act in the US, while Tether operates overseas with a different user base and is not fully backed by Treasury bills or cash [11] Use Cases and Adoption - Stablecoin usage has expanded beyond speculation, with real adoption in emerging markets as a store of value and for commerce [7][8] - Stablecoins can provide financial infrastructure to regions lacking formal property rights, enabling financial transactions via smartphones [21] Business Model and Revenue Streams - The primary business model involves reserve backing, where issuers earn revenue from yield-bearing T-bills in their reserves [26] - Additional revenue streams include transaction fees, redemption fees, and tokenized money market (USDYC) take rates [26][29] - Circle is developing a Circle Payment Network (CPN) for cross-border payments with compliance modules, targeting financial institutions and fintech companies [29][30] Future Trends and Convergence - Stablecoins are likely to be the rails for AI agent transactions due to their programmability, finality, and digitally native nature [33][36] - The Genius Act may prevent big tech companies from launching their own stablecoins [15] - The total stablecoin supply is projected to reach approximately 1.4% to 1.5% trillion in the next 5 years, indicating exponential growth from the current 250 billion [45] Risks and Concerns - Risks include the potential for de-pegging and liquidity issues, as seen during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis when USDC de-pegged to 85 cents [38] - Privacy is a concern, as stablecoin transactions on blockchain rails are not fully private, and Circle can freeze accounts for illicit activities [40][41]

Well, that big beautiful bill is causing a bit of a ruckus out there, as I'm sure you all know, with President Trump and Elon Musk uh having having different points of views. I think the way this is evolving is Elon, Tesla, and investors understand, are beginning to understand more and more just how much the government has control here. SpaceX has $22 billion in contracts, government contracts.Regulation will impact the transportation sector. We are hoping that the regulation for autonomous taxi platforms t ...

In this episode of FYI – For Your Innovation, ARK's Director of Research Brett Winton sits down with Brad Feld — co-founder of Foundry, Techstars, and longtime venture capitalist — to unpack his latest thinking on startup communities, mentorship, and how founders can build better networks by giving first. After taking time away from public life to reflect, Brad returns with a new book, Give First: The Power of Mentorship, and a sharpened view on the distinction between transactional ecosystems and community ...

Hi everyone, my name is Lorenzo Valente. I'm the head of research uh of digital assets at Arc Invest. We have just published our latest blog on stable coins.uh with the circle IPO this week uh and the supply almost hitting 250 billion, we've published uh this research blog where we go over uh dollar dominance overseas uh why we think you know both tether circle and the broader digital uh the stable coin complex are going to be one of the biggest allies of the US government going forward. And we also talk ab ...

[Music] Greetings everyone. It is uh in the know day as well employment Friday uh and uh we have a lot to discuss as usual we'll we'll go through fiscal policy monetary policy economic indicators market indicators and uh we'll talk a little bit about uh some real breakthroughs in terms of uh the market recognizing how much innovation is taking place. Um so uh starting w with fiscal policy and I'll I'll go through and and just uh make a few observations before we flip to charts.So um on fiscal policy, well t ...

AI发展趋势 - AI发展迅速，远超预期 [1][3][41] - AI用户增长速度超过以往任何消费产品，但需区分有意使用和无意接触AI的用户 [8][9] - AI在图像和视频领域的应用日益普及 [18] - 中国在AI领域发展迅速，与美国积极竞争 [33] AI技术与应用 - AI性能日益逼真，能够模拟人类行为，图灵测试已不再适用 [14] - 反向图灵测试可能成为现实，AI可用于评估人类知识水平 [15][16] - AI可用于定制化评估，尤其是在教育领域 [18] - Gemini上的查询长度是Google搜索的两到三倍，表明用户对AI聊天机器人的使用方式不同 [23] AI成本与收益 - AI所需的能源成本大幅下降，自2014年以来，每个LLM token的能源需求降低了105,000倍 [28] - 尽管资本支出巨大，但AI的货币化方式正在发生变化，从前期投入大量资金进行训练，转变为训练加推理，更接近运营支出 [30][32] - 市场对AI产品的可接受价格正在上涨，例如每月200美元到2000美元 [32][33] 自动驾驶 - 特斯拉计划推出Robotaxi [34] - Waymo的自动驾驶服务即使在小范围内运营，其增长趋势也可能在未来12个月内超过Uber [34] - 自动驾驶的普及将取决于价格、可用性和用户体验 [36]

Valuation Analysis - Innovation-based strategies are trading at near record low valuations relative to their history [1] - Innovation strategies are selling at a very low premium to the S&P 500, as measured by enterprise value to adjusted EBITA [1] - The average valuation premium over ARK's life is roughly 90%, or 75% excluding the COVID distortion [2] Methodology - S&P 500 and various innovation strategies were adjusted for stock-based compensation and R&D [2]

But one point I would like to make is that all of these findings on brain algorithms are also going to enable next generation AI because AI right now as much as it is exciting has very severe limitations which is that it uses unbelievable amount of energy for tasks that are relatively easy for human beings. And so us as human beings the human brain is designed to have very good energy efficiency. I believe after like learning a lot about how the brain algorithm works, the brain's main design principle is en ...