Tech stocks rebounding here after three straight days of losses as investors brace for any signs of an AI bubble. But could the private AI markets be the source of any froth. Our DOSA digs into that for today's tech check.Happy Friday D. >> Hey, happy Friday Carl. So yes, if you are worried about a bubble in AI, you really can't ignore what's happening in private markets because startup losses, they are the engine of this boom.every dollar they burn on compute turns into revenue for Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidi ...

Monetary Policy Outlook - The FOMC is divided on future rate cuts, with some members favoring additional cuts and others believing they have done enough [4] - The differing views within the FOMC reflect disagreements on how to conduct policy given the current economic outlook [5] - Market participants anticipate further rate cuts, influenced by forecasts that consider macroeconomic fundamentals and potential political influence on the Federal Reserve board [10][12] FOMC Communication and Decision-Making - FOMC participants engage in public speaking to communicate and attempt to convince each other regarding policy decisions [6] - The market may react adversely if the case for another rate cut is not well explained by Chair Powell [9] Economic Conditions and Inflation - The FOMC's view of economic activity and inflation is expected to remain consistent with the summary of economic projections from September [2] - Inflation remains a concern, with some FOMC members arguing that it is not at the desired level and that there are upside risks [5] Future Considerations - A new chair and voting members will join the FOMC next year, potentially influencing future policy decisions [10] - Political factors, such as the White House's ability to appoint a majority to the Federal Reserve board, could significantly impact future interest rate policy [12]

Market Trends & Economic Outlook - The S&P 500 experienced a recovery from an earlier dip, currently down about 033% [1] - The Nasdaq is also recovering, trading near the flatline, led by Micron, Microsoft, and Nvidia [1] - The consensus expects inflation to remain around 3% for the next 18 months [3][4] - A rebound in the economy is expected next year, with a bill potentially adding almost a full percentage point to GDP growth due to accelerated depreciation [17] Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy - The debate around the Federal Reserve's actions is causing anxiety, particularly in the tech sector [2] - The majority of FMC members are communicating that they are not done fighting inflation, making interest rate cuts in December unlikely [2][3][4] - Upside pressure on inflation is expected due to the dollar's decline and potential pass-through from tariffs [5] - The speaker anticipates the Fed to hold in December due to concerns about upside risks to inflation, which is already at 3% [18] Labor Market Analysis - The true health of the labor market is complex to assess due to data challenges and the timing of the employment report [5][6][7] - Companies predict 2026 will be the worst college grad job market in 5 years [9] - Unemployment rate data for college graduates aged 22-27 shows a divergence, with the rate decreasing for women and increasing for men [9] - The narrative that AI is causing widespread job losses is questioned, as jobless claims are not increasing [10] International Trade & AI Impact - China has been able to adjust its exports, doubling sales to other Asian countries to offset declines to the US [11][12] - The AI story's burden is now on seeing more earnings growth, particularly in the S&P 493, to benefit from AI [15][16] - Service sector companies' input costs have been rising significantly, potentially leading to upside pressure on service inflation next year [20]

on the Walmart news at least. Let's bring in Walmart analyst joining us this morning. Uh Greg Melich has a buy rating on Walmart targeted 111.Greg, it's good to talk to you. Thanks for the help today. >> Thanks for having me.>> Um what do we know about Ferner. Tell us. >> Uh look at Ferner is is of the culture and of the organization.Been there 30 years. uh and since running Walmart uh uh US since 2019, he's been integral to leading a lot of the changes that have gone on there to to not only get Walmart uh ...

We're getting some breaking news out of Washington. For that, we'll turn to Aean Jabvers. Morning, Aean.>> Carl, a new social media post here from the President of the United States. He is calling for a Department of Justice investigation into JP Morgan, former President Bill Clinton, and others uh involved in relationships with Jeffrey Epstein. Here's what the president said on social media just a short time ago.So he says, "Now that the Democrats are using the Epstein hoax involving Democrats, not Republi ...

More than $1.4% billion dollar worth of art coming up for auction next week in the big auction sales. The hope is that next week will finally end three years of decline. And if they reach that sales total, that will be up over 50% last year.The hope is that these rising stock markets, increased wealth creation, and lower interest rates will finally turn the tide and increase demand. Now, on that supply side, one of the big factors this season are some very big collections that are coming up, including two h ...

Let's continue that conversation with Muhammad Ali and this morning chief economic adviser at Aliance who I'm sure has been listening in. Muhammad, happy Friday. It's good to see you.Do you think this wave of unleashed data can be definitive. >> No. Um, you have deep divisions and you heard Steve say that you're likely to get three descents if they don't cut, four to five descents if they do cut.These are deep divisions getting deeper. They're getting deeper for three good reasons and one awful reasons. The ...

And Dave Cody is the chairman of Verdictive, which I think is when I think of data center, I think of you because you were the first one that explained to me at $16 that this was $16. Dave says, you know, Jim, have you looked at this verd. I said, oh man, it's all the way at $16.He goes, have you thought about it the other way. It's all the way at $16. Dave Cody, thanks for being on the show.>> But actually, the one that I've always liked, you sent me this clip once that said, I feel like I'm sitting on a g ...

What I committed to the board of our mutual funds is that I was the last purchaser. I haven't really invested in stock since 1992 in public companies. And I told the board, if you let me invest in this, when I tried to get everyone else to invest, nobody else wanted to at Baron Capitals.So I said, if you let me invest uh uh a certain amount of money, uh then what I will do is I will promise that I won't sell any of my stock. And I told you I wouldn't invest, but let me break my promise. and uh let me invest ...

Market Overview & Investment Thesis - Tech industry is in a bull market expected to continue for another two years, presenting golden buying opportunities [2] - Current nervousness is shortsighted, with street underestimating numbers by 20-30% over the next 12-18 months [2] - US is ahead of China in tech for the first time in 30 years, indicating a fourth industrial revolution [8] - Focus on long-term potential rather than short-term valuations to avoid missing transformational tech stocks [15] AI & Capex - Demand for chips is significantly outstripping supply, with demand increased approximately 30% since June [2] - Hyperscalers are in a capex super cycle, building a new economy on the consumer and enterprise front [2] - For every $1 spent on Nvidia chips, there's an 8 to 10 times multiplier across the rest of tech [10] - For every $1 invested in capex, companies are expected to make $8 to $10 in return over the coming years [2] Company Specific Analysis - Meta and Oracle are table pounders, with sell-offs representing golden buying opportunities [3] - Oracle is only 2% penetrated within its install base when it comes to AI, indicating massive renaissance potential [4] - Expects US enterprise AI adoption to increase from 3% to 20% over the next 18-24 months [5] - Tesla could reach a $2 trillion to $3 trillion market cap due to its dominance in autonomous technology [7]