外汇交易员
Search documents
X @外汇交易员
外汇交易员· 2025-07-29 08:30
Policy Overview - China's childcare subsidy plan will provide RMB 3,600 per child per year for infants under 3 years old, starting January 1, 2025 [1] - The subsidy will be distributed annually until the child reaches 3 years old [1] Potential Economic Impact - Citi estimates the total one-time subsidy could reach RMB 117 billion by the second half of 2025 [1] - This is equivalent to approximately 0.23% of the total social consumer goods retail sales during the same period [1] - Assuming the policy remains unchanged, the total subsidy amount may decrease to around RMB 90 billion by 2030 due to a decline in the eligible population [1] Considerations - It is uncertain whether the policy can effectively increase China's birth rate, as the subsidy amount needs to be substantial enough to influence people's decisions to have children [1]
X @外汇交易员
外汇交易员· 2025-07-29 02:43
Market Overview - UBS estimates recent global growth momentum corresponds to an annualized growth rate of only 13% [1] - UBS anticipates a short-term consolidation in global stock markets, with potential for further upside in the medium term, but also an increasing probability of a bubble [1] US Market Analysis - US stock market demonstrates resilience due to strong structural buying forces like corporate stock buybacks and individual pensions [2] - UBS expects continued positive earnings growth for US companies, driven by AI and a weaker dollar [2] Emerging Markets Analysis - UBS suggests emerging market stocks face downside risk as new reciprocal tariff rates are announced, with over 35% of their overall revenue coming from overseas [2] - Emerging markets do not appear to have priced in this risk [2] Monetary Policy - UBS anticipates potential for significant Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year due to a weakening labor market, leading to lower US Treasury yields [2] - UBS believes investors are overestimating the short-term increase in Treasury supply [2] - Stronger labor market data could lead the Federal Reserve to postpone rate cuts [2]