外汇交易员
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外汇交易员· 2025-07-30 00:32
Trade Negotiations - US and China are expected to extend the trade truce for another three months, agreeing not to impose additional tariffs or escalate the trade war [1] - The extension involves the reinstatement of the suspended 24% portion of US tariffs and corresponding Chinese countermeasures for 90 days [1] - Trade teams will maintain close communication [1] Key Issues - Discussions will focus on major sticking points, such as US concerns about China's excess industrial capacity [1] - China is expected to pressure the US regarding fentanyl tariffs [1]
X @外汇交易员
外汇交易员· 2025-07-29 08:30
Policy Overview - China's childcare subsidy plan will provide RMB 3,600 per child per year for infants under 3 years old, starting January 1, 2025 [1] - The subsidy will be distributed annually until the child reaches 3 years old [1] Potential Economic Impact - Citi estimates the total one-time subsidy could reach RMB 117 billion by the second half of 2025 [1] - This is equivalent to approximately 0.23% of the total social consumer goods retail sales during the same period [1] - Assuming the policy remains unchanged, the total subsidy amount may decrease to around RMB 90 billion by 2030 due to a decline in the eligible population [1] Considerations - It is uncertain whether the policy can effectively increase China's birth rate, as the subsidy amount needs to be substantial enough to influence people's decisions to have children [1]