憨巴龙王
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憨巴龙王· 2025-10-13 12:01
Industry Perspective - The cryptocurrency industry is currently in an era of significant consolidation and collaboration, driven by the increasing number of cryptocurrencies and blockchain networks [1] - Individual investors may find it challenging to comprehensively monitor the entire cryptocurrency market landscape [1] Investment Strategy - Forming small, agile online groups of less than 10 people for real-time information sharing and mutual support is crucial for success in the current market [1] - The most valuable insights are often found within smaller, exclusive groups where members actively contribute and exchange expertise [1] - Actively participating and contributing value within a group is more beneficial than passively waiting for information dissemination [1] Operational Efficiency - Prioritizing efficiency and dedication is essential for success in the cryptocurrency space [1] - Real-time monitoring and responsiveness to market alerts are critical for informed decision-making [1]
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憨巴龙王· 2025-10-13 11:25
有关黑天鹅的事情我以前说过很多次。马云跟你玩梭哈,你把把拿AA。这肯定有90%的胜率。赔率是2,那根据凯乐公式,下注86%资金就是最大ev。如果你怕波动,可以只下注40%,如果你胆小如鼠,也应该下注10%-20%的资金,这是明显的送钱机会。在币圈大量穿仓,极速下跌的时候,大量adl订单出现后,抄底胜率近乎100%,一定有大反弹。而跌的越多,胜率也越高,赔率也越大。所以应该下注的仓位也越大。如果你实在没经验,可以分批,可以1分钟买5%资金,最多只买30%。最后说一句,我在币圈仓位占比最大的时候都是黑天鹅的时候,因为我觉得这时候是胜率最大,赔率最大的时候,如果你不猛猛下注,只能说你不相信数学。不敢下注,只有恐惧,相信科学,自然会疯狂下注。(当然,最好不加杠杆) ...
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憨巴龙王· 2025-10-12 11:58
DeFi Risk Analysis - The report highlights concerns regarding potential systemic risks associated with WETH's oracle mechanism modification scheduled for the 16th [1] - The report suggests Binance may not have adequately considered the systemic risks posed by excessive circular loans in its USDE operations [1] - The author dismisses the conspiracy theory that Binance intentionally created risks for USDE [1] Oracle Mechanism - The report mentions a potential conflict if Binance modifies the USDE oracle lower limit after WETH's oracle mechanism change [1] Project Evaluation - The report uses the term "草台班子" (roughly translates to "makeshift team" or "incompetent team") to describe Binance's handling of USDE, implying a lack of foresight [1]
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憨巴龙王· 2025-10-12 11:38
Market Stability & Risk Management - The question is raised about the absence of a dedicated organization for market making in stablecoins like USDE, USDC, WETH, and other self-packaged cryptocurrencies to prevent cascading liquidations [1] - The potential benefits of market making are highlighted, suggesting it could minimize losses compared to the costs associated with widespread liquidations [1] - A question is posed regarding whether Binance prohibits such market making activities [1]