憨巴龙王
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憨巴龙王· 2025-10-13 12:01
Industry Perspective - The cryptocurrency industry is currently in an era of significant consolidation and collaboration, driven by the increasing number of cryptocurrencies and blockchain networks [1] - Individual investors may find it challenging to comprehensively monitor the entire cryptocurrency market landscape [1] Investment Strategy - Forming small, agile online groups of less than 10 people for real-time information sharing and mutual support is crucial for success in the current market [1] - The most valuable insights are often found within smaller, exclusive groups where members actively contribute and exchange expertise [1] - Actively participating and contributing value within a group is more beneficial than passively waiting for information dissemination [1] Operational Efficiency - Prioritizing efficiency and dedication is essential for success in the cryptocurrency space [1] - Real-time monitoring and responsiveness to market alerts are critical for informed decision-making [1]
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憨巴龙王· 2025-10-13 11:29
Investment Strategy - Suggests limiting investment in LUNA to 30% due to lack of understanding of its mechanism [1] - For those with expertise, shorting LUNA is the recommended strategy [1] Risk Management - Highlights the importance of understanding investment mechanisms before investing [1] - Emphasizes caution even when LUNA did not experience a margin call at the time of writing [1]
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憨巴龙王· 2025-10-13 11:25
Investment Strategy in Cryptocurrency Market - During extreme market downturns in the cryptocurrency space, the occurrence of ADL (Auto-Deleveraging) triggers presents near 100% opportunities for bottom-fishing with high probability of significant rebound [3] - The deeper the market decline, the higher the probability of success and the greater the potential return, justifying larger investment positions [3] - For inexperienced traders, a gradual approach is recommended, such as investing 5% of capital every minute, up to a maximum of 30% [3] - The optimal times to maximize cryptocurrency holdings are during "black swan" events, when perceived probabilities of success and potential returns are at their highest [3] - Overcoming fear and embracing a data-driven approach are crucial for making bold investment decisions [4] Risk Management - It is advisable to avoid leverage when implementing these strategies [4] - Even with high probability setups (e.g., 90% win rate with 2x payout), proper position sizing is critical; the Kelly Criterion suggests wagering 86% of funds for maximum expected value, but more conservative allocations (e.g., 40%, 10%-20%) are also viable [2] Market Anomalies - Identifying situations with high win rates and favorable odds is essential for profitable trading [2][3] - "Black swan" events can present unique opportunities for outsized returns [1][3]
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憨巴龙王· 2025-10-12 11:58
DeFi Risk Analysis - The report highlights concerns regarding potential systemic risks associated with WETH's oracle mechanism modification scheduled for the 16th [1] - The report suggests Binance may not have adequately considered the systemic risks posed by excessive circular loans in its USDE operations [1] - The author dismisses the conspiracy theory that Binance intentionally created risks for USDE [1] Oracle Mechanism - The report mentions a potential conflict if Binance modifies the USDE oracle lower limit after WETH's oracle mechanism change [1] Project Evaluation - The report uses the term "草台班子" (roughly translates to "makeshift team" or "incompetent team") to describe Binance's handling of USDE, implying a lack of foresight [1]
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憨巴龙王· 2025-10-12 11:38
Market Stability & Risk Management - The question is raised about the absence of a dedicated organization for market making in stablecoins like USDE, USDC, WETH, and other self-packaged cryptocurrencies to prevent cascading liquidations [1] - The potential benefits of market making are highlighted, suggesting it could minimize losses compared to the costs associated with widespread liquidations [1] - A question is posed regarding whether Binance prohibits such market making activities [1]