当华尔街最老练的投行之一在"平静市场"里单日暴跌 7.47%，这不是一次普通的波动，而更 像是一根提前震动的压力测试针。 在美股市场看似风平浪静的表象下，资金的暗流往往比指数更能说明问题。 回顾过去 26 年，高盛共计经历了 6621 个交易日。 【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】 在这漫长的时间跨度里，单日跌幅超过 7% 的情况仅出现过 45 次，触发概率低至 0.68%。 这意味着，平均每 147 个交易日，才会发生一次如此剧烈的波动。 从统计学的角度看，这属于典型的"黑天鹅"边缘事件。然而，更关键的不是"罕见"本身，而是 它出现的背景与时间节点。 如果我们将这 45 次极端下跌的时间轴展开，会发现它们高度集中在人类现代金融史上的几次 重大危机时刻。 在 2000 年互联网泡沫破裂期间，此类大跌出现了 7 次，那是科技股估值幻灭的开端；在 2008 年至 2009 年的全球金融危机中，这一数字高达 22 次，那是雷曼兄弟倒下后，整个银 行业信用体系崩塌的至暗时刻；而在 2020 年新冠疫情引发的市场熔断阶段，类似波动出现了 7 次，那是全球流动性瞬间枯竭的恐慌记忆。 上周五，高盛集团（Goldman Sa ...

劳拉·瓦尔德拉玛和理查德·瓦加席 欧洲银行业系统中的风险传染 非银行金融（NBFIs）的放大效应与市场风险 WP/26/33WP/26/33 国际货币基金组织工作论文 描述作者（们）正在进行 的研究，并已发表以引发评论和促进辩论。 国际货币基金组织工作论文中表述的观点是作者的观点 ，并不一定代表国际货币基金组织、其执行董事会或基 金管理层的观点。 2026 二月 份 WP/26/33WP/26/33 © 2026 国际货币基金组织 国际货币基金组织工作论文 欧洲部门 欧洲银行系统风险传播：非银行金融机构和市场风险的放大效应 （*由劳拉·瓦尔德拉玛和理查德·瓦格希泽准备） 授权由Malhar Nabar分发，2026年2月 F工作论文 IM 描述作者（们）正在进行的研究，并已发表以引发评论和促进辩论。 国际货币基金组织工作论文中 表述的观点是作者的观点，不一定代表国际货币基金组织、其执行董事会或基金管理层的观点。 摘要： 网络分析以检验非银行金融机构的影响 本文研究了非银行金融机构（NBFIs）和金融市场压力对银行间网络传染 风险的影响。利用基于网络的模拟分析欧元区银行的监管数据，我们发现银行强劲的资本和流动性 ...

春节回来，黄金白银又涨了。 尽管价格尚未突破前期高点，但在大类资产中，累计涨幅依旧一骑绝尘，让金银的市场热度居高不下。 开年以来，金银始终在高位持续剧烈震荡，一边是不断刷屏的涨价新闻，一边是多空激烈博弈，市场情 绪在狂热看涨与恐慌焦虑之间剧烈摇摆。 在这轮行情中，两种极端心态尤为典型。 一种是神化金银，将其包装成"永不崩盘、绝对安全、能穿越所有周期"的终极资产，仿佛只要持有就能 稳赚不赔，无视估值、无视波动、无视风险。 白银则兼具金融属性与工业属性，既是贵金属，也是新能源、光伏、电子产业的重要原材料，此轮大幅 上涨，正是双重需求共振下的结果，也让白银成为这波行情里的"弹性之王"。 但再硬的逻辑，也改变不了一个基本常识：市场上没有只涨不跌的资产。 当前金银价格，已充分计价降息预期、地缘冲突、工业需求等多重利好，高位震荡本身，就是风险累积 的信号。 杠杆交易看似能放大收益，一旦趋势反转，便会快速吞噬本金。追高重仓看似能抓住红利，实则是把主 动权交给市场波动。 盲目信仰看似坚定，实则是对风险的视而不见。即便白银的工业需求亮眼，也同样面临技术替代、周期 回落、供需格局改变的长期隐忧，不存在永远刚性的逻辑。 对普通投资 ...

来源：经济观察网 经济观察网 中原银行于2026年2月16日及19日发布公告，调整董事会战略发展委员会委员构成，周锋先 生和李文强先生获选为新委员，冯若凡先生因工作安排辞任。这一公司治理变动发生在近期高管频繁更 迭的背景下，引发市场对内部管控效能的关注。 财报分析 机构观点 牛刀财经分析指出，中原银行盈利能力持续塌陷、资产质量"表好里差"及公司治理失效构成系统性风 险，尤其需警惕房地产敞口和隐性不良资产的冲击。该行在区域市场份额下滑，转型压力凸显。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 根据2025年中期报告，中原银行营收同比下降3.1%至135.62亿元，归母净利润微降0.8%至20.34亿元， 呈现"营收净利双降"态势。资产质量方面，不良贷款率虽表面稳定在2.01%，但关注类贷款占比高达 11%以上，远高于行业平均水平，且风险集中于房地产和地方政府融资平台，潜在减值压力较大。非利 息收入大幅下滑30%以上，反映出业务结构单一、抗周期能力弱的问题。 股票近期走势 近一周（2月16日至20日），中原银行港股股价从0.34港元跌至0.33港元，区间跌幅1.49%，成交额仅 32.2万港元，流动性较低。技术 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strategy of yen carry trade is described as a "ticking time bomb" in global financial markets, facing significant risks of large-scale unwinding due to rising expectations of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan and potential increases in long-term government bond yields [1][2]. Group 1: Yen Carry Trade Dynamics - The yen carry trade involves borrowing in low-yielding yen to invest in higher-yielding assets, benefiting from stronger carry returns from overseas investments [1]. - The strategy is vulnerable to market downturns or a strengthening yen, which could lead to rapid unwinding of positions and significant market impacts [1][3]. - Rising expectations for interest rate hikes and fiscal stimulus in Japan are contributing to upward pressure on long-term bond yields, weakening the foundation of the carry trade [1][2]. Group 2: Historical Context and Risks - The BCA Research team warns that the current carry trade model could collapse similarly to events in 2008, 2015, and 2020, where rapid deterioration in global risk sentiment triggered sudden deleveraging [2][5]. - The combination of increased interest rate expectations, weakened risk sentiment, and a stronger yen is seen as a potential catalyst for large-scale unwinding of carry trades [2][3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - BCA advises long-term investors to go long on yen and short on the dollar, especially as expectations for interest rate hikes rise and the yen begins to rebound from historically weak levels [3][4]. - The yen has appreciated over 1% against the dollar in 2026, moving away from levels that could trigger intervention by the Bank of Japan or the Ministry of Finance [3]. Group 4: Systemic Risk Implications - The yen carry trade represents a systemic risk to global markets, as it is highly leveraged and interconnected across various asset classes [4][6]. - A significant unwinding of these trades could lead to sharp increases in yen value and declines in global risk asset prices, creating a feedback loop that tightens market liquidity and heightens risk aversion [5][6]. - Historical market turmoil has often been linked to the unwinding of carry trades, indicating the potential for widespread market disruptions [5][6].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 地缘风险溢价下降叠加系统性风险共振，美原油近两日跌幅接近5%，国内SC原油继周一跌停后，其主 力合约周二盘中大跌5%。美伊局势进入"军事威慑+外交谈判"并行的关键窗口期，本周五（2月6日）伊 斯坦布尔谈判为关键节点，决定局势走向（缓和或升级），当前双方核心诉求分歧较大，美方要"彻底 去核+限制导弹+停止代理人活动"，伊朗要"保留核权利+解除制裁+不涉国防议题"。地缘事件存在不确 定性，短期原油以震荡市对待。 据伊朗媒体报道，伊朗总统2日下令同美国启动核谈判，伊朗可能在未来几天同美国举行高规格谈判。 白宫和以色列政府官员2日分别证实，美国总统特使威特科夫将于3日抵达以色列。周六美总统向记者表 示伊朗正与华盛顿进行"严肃对话"，此前几个小时，伊朗最高国家安全委员会主席拉里贾尼表示，正在 推动谈判的安排。美方多次威胁称，若伊朗拒绝核协议或继续镇压抗议者，美方将进行干预。 OPEC+周日会议决定维持3月原油产量不变。该联盟去年11月已冻结2026年1月至3月期间的增产计划， 因季节性需求疲软。综上，地缘局势变化依旧是扰动油价的重要因素，一旦美伊局势升级 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-03 板块集体回调，镍不锈钢价格大幅回撤 镍品种 市场分析 2026-02-02日沪镍主力合约2603开于138000元/吨，收于129650元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-11.00%，当日成交量 为808140（-204303）手，持仓量为110945（-21503）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约以跌停收盘，核心驱动是宏观紧缩预期升温、外盘大跌传导与产业高库存共振，叠 加多头恐慌性平仓，技术面破位加剧抛压。宏观方面，特朗普提名沃什任美联储新掌门，鹰派预期升温，美元走 强、美债收益率回升，大宗商品全线下挫，沪镍受系统性风险冲击。伦镍大跌形成外盘负向传导，加剧内盘抛压。 此外，国内精炼镍库存连续三周累库，供应宽松而下游节前备货意愿不足，高库存压制价格。精炼镍对镍铁溢价 偏高，镍铁转产高冰镍增加，进一步冲击现货市场。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，菲律宾方面，受上周北方矿山高价成交的坚实支撑，贸易商挺价意愿坚决，国内CIF 价格议价重心被迫上移。1.3%品位镍矿价格上涨至48美元/湿吨，1.5%品位价格区间也上探至59-62美元，表明市场 正在逐步消化极端成本。印尼 ...

Oil Market - On Monday, oil prices saw a significant decline, with WTI March contract closing down by $3.07 to $62.14 per barrel, a drop of 4.71% [2] - Brent April contract closed down by $3.02 to $66.3 per barrel, a decrease of 4.36% [2] - SC2603 closed at 450 yuan per barrel, down by 22.7 yuan, a decline of 4.8% [2] - Iranian President ordered to initiate nuclear negotiations with the U.S., which may lead to high-level talks in the coming days [2] - OPEC+ decided to maintain March oil production unchanged due to weak seasonal demand [2] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil FU2603 fell by 7.01% to 2679 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil LU2604 dropped by 5.92% to 3128 yuan/ton [3] - Supply from Western arbitrage shipments is expected to remain high, keeping the low-sulfur market well supplied [3][4] - Demand for marine fuel oil is anticipated to increase before the Spring Festival [3] Asphalt - The main contract for asphalt BU2603 decreased by 4.879% to 3299 yuan/ton [5] - Northern regions are primarily focused on downstream stocking, while overall refinery inventory levels are expected to rise as transportation halts during the Spring Festival [5][6] Rubber - Shanghai rubber main contract RU2605 fell by 380 yuan/ton to 15980 yuan/ton, with NR main contract down by 310 yuan/ton to 12925 yuan/ton [6] - Natural rubber inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone increased by 3.32% to 10.57 million tons [6] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5092 yuan/ton, down 3.38%, while EG2605 closed at 3767 yuan/ton, down 3.73% [7] - PX futures closed at 7150 yuan/ton, also down 3.38% [7] - The overall polyester production and sales are estimated to be low, around 20-30% [7] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were at 2230 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices ranging from $269 to $273 per ton [8] - Domestic production is expected to slightly decrease in February, while imports are anticipated to decline from high levels [8] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polypropylene in East China ranged from 6600 to 6780 yuan/ton, with various production margins reported [9] - The market is entering a holiday phase, leading to an increase in inventory [9] PVC - PVC prices in East China increased, with prices for calcium carbide method ranging from 4770 to 4860 yuan/ton [10] - The demand for PVC in downstream construction is expected to weaken as real estate activity declines [10] Urea - Urea prices remained stable, with some regions experiencing slight adjustments [11] - Daily production is fluctuating above 210,000 tons, with expectations for further supply increases [11] Soda Ash - Soda ash prices remained mostly stable, with some regions seeing slight declines [12] - The industry operating rate was reported at 82.29%, down 2.69 percentage points [12] Glass - Glass prices slightly decreased, with the average price at 1106 yuan/ton [14] - The market is facing pressure from declining demand as the Spring Festival approaches [14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the paradox of rising metal prices, particularly gold, while simultaneously revealing systemic risks in the market, exemplified by the recent collapse of a jewelry company in Shenzhen [1][5][12] - The Shenzhen-based jewelry company, Shenzhen Jie Wo Rui Jewelry Co., has reported severe operational abnormalities, with unpaid funds exceeding 13.3 billion yuan, affecting multiple provinces [3][10] - The market sentiment has shifted from cautious observation to frenzied speculation, leading to a rush for investments in metals, despite the underlying risks [1][12] Group 2 - Jie Wo Rui, established in 2014, is a well-known player in the gold raw material trading sector, with a traditional business model of sourcing and recycling precious metals [6][8] - The company has built a high level of trust over the years, which has ironically contributed to the current crisis as it faced liquidity issues amid rising gold prices [8][12] - The operational failure is attributed to three dangerous gray market practices, including betting against gold prices, delaying deliveries, and using high leverage in financial transactions [12][13][16] Group 3 - The article discusses the transformation of the Water Bay area from a legitimate industrial base into a financial gambling hub, driven by the pressures of rising costs and intense competition [20][21] - The current market environment poses significant risks, especially if gold prices experience a normal correction, which could lead to catastrophic losses for highly leveraged investors [22][27] - The article concludes that for ordinary investors, the safest strategy is often the simplest one: avoiding complex investments in a high-risk environment [23][29]

贾舒畅认为，若将黄金置于全球资产组合中考量，其涨幅仍处于相对温和水平。与权益市场对比， 黄金ETF总持仓加期货净多仓占比全球股票市值不足1.5%；以MSCI全球股票指数为参照，黄金的相对 价值并未出现显著偏离；在全球配置占比方面，目前黄金ETF、期货及现货合计在全球股票+债券总资 产中的占比依然较低。 王立新呼吁，投资者应以长期战略配置心态参与，不要将黄金作为短期投机工具，防止在非理性状 态下超越自身风险承受能力进行交易。 根据世界黄金协会发布的2025年全年《全球黄金需求趋势报告》，全球黄金投资需求增至2175吨的 里程碑水平，成为推动2025年黄金总需求刷新历史纪录的主要驱动力。全球范围内，寻求避险和资产多 元化的投资者大量涌入黄金ETF，全年净增801吨。同时，实物黄金投资需求也保持强劲，全球金条和 金币需求达到1374吨，按价值计为1540亿美元。其中，中国和印度市场表现突出，分别实现同比增长 28%和17%，合计占该板块需求的50%以上。 2025年，全球央行购金需求依然保持高位，官方机构增持863吨黄金。尽管全年需求未能突破此前 连续三年超年均1000吨的水平，但央行购金仍是2025年全球黄金需求 ...