声明：本系列文章基于原期刊目录和摘要内容整理而得，仅限于读者交流学习。如有侵权，请联系 删除。 期刊介绍： 《Journal of Risk and Insurance》为季刊，每年4期，每期发表文章8-10篇左右。2024年影响因子为 2.1，是风险管理与保险领域的顶级权威学术期刊。该期刊主要发表保险经济学和风险管理主题的理 论和实证方面的学术论文，可以为保险市场的实践、决策和监管以及企业和家庭风险管理提供重要 的信息。 本期看点： ●欧美保险公司的投资策略存在差异：在市场收缩的第一个月，保险公司会顺周期地将投资组合转 向低信用风险资产。随着危机持续，欧洲保险公司表现出逆周期的风险投资行为（尤其青睐高收益 工具），押注市场复苏，而美国公司不存在这种逆周期行为。 ●德国寿险公司的数据表明，保险公司公开报告的偿付能力比率会影响保费增长和退保率，支持通 过公共风险披露来加强市场约束的结论。 ●系统重要性银行机构的系统性风险受多重冲击驱动，而系统重要性保险机构的系统性风险主要源 于新冠疫情的影响。 ●保额保险产品形式日益复杂，其每当出现良性创新后，便会涌现混淆性产品（隐性包装）。 ●保险会计信息对低破产风险企业更具 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic commodity market experienced a widespread decline on November 21, primarily influenced by external market weaknesses, with significant drops in various sectors, particularly lithium carbonate and precious metals [1][2][3]. Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1458.04 points, down 16.46 points or 1.12% from the previous trading day [1]. - The China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 2015.90 points, down 22.76 points or 1.12% from the previous trading day [1]. - Most active commodities, except for some agricultural products, saw declines, with lithium carbonate hitting a daily limit down of 9% [1][2]. Group 2: Lithium Carbonate Market - The lithium carbonate market faced a rapid cooling, with multiple contracts, including the main contract, closing at the daily limit down, leading the commodity market decline on November 21 [2]. - The market's downturn was exacerbated by the announcement from the Guangxi Futures Exchange to raise trading fees and margin requirements for certain lithium carbonate contracts, further dampening bullish sentiment [2]. - The main contract saw a significant reduction in positions, with over 68,000 contracts reduced and a net outflow of more than 2.2 billion yuan [2]. Group 3: Precious Metals Market - Precious metals also suffered from the overall market weakness, with the main silver contract dropping 3.7% and gold down 1.4% [3]. - The release of better-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data diminished expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, contributing to the decline in precious metals [3]. - Despite short-term pressures, analysts believe the long-term fundamentals supporting precious metals remain intact, suggesting a potential rebound after adjustments [3]. Group 4: Agricultural Products Performance - In contrast to industrial commodities, certain agricultural products showed resilience, with starch and corn contracts rising over 1%, leading the commodity market [4]. - The strength in the corn market is attributed to reduced new grain supply from Northeast China and strong demand from feed enterprises, with average feed enterprise inventory increasing by 2.42% week-on-week [4][5]. - The oilseed sector exhibited mixed performance, with soybean oil and meal generally declining, while rapeseed meal saw a rebound after reaching a low point [5].

点击【樱桃大房子】关注并 一方面，1-10月国有土地使用权出让收入24982亿元，同比下降7.4%。 可能单说7.4%，大家没感觉。但要知道，卖地收入可是地方政府的"钱袋子"，占地方政府性基金预算本级收入的比重很大。它一感冒，整个经济可能都要 跟着打喷嚏，直接影响地方基金收入整体下降3.3%。 另一方面，全国政府性基金预算支出却高达80892亿元，同比大幅增长15.4%。 是不是觉得很分裂？一边是卖地收入这个进水口在缩小，另一边是预算支出这个出水口在猛增。 这感觉就像，家里工资收入明明少了，但房贷、车贷、孩子学费的支出却不减反增。钱从哪来？缺口怎么补？ 今天，咱们就把这个"财务清单"掰开，讲清楚我们正站在怎样的节点上。 为什么会出现这么分裂的数据？ 近日，财政部发布2025年1—10月财政收支情况，其中有一组数据极具对比性。 卖地收入下降7.4%，是趋势，不是偶然。数据显示，2024年全国土地出让金收入为48699亿元，较2021年的高峰时期（8.7万亿元）已经下滑了44%。 原因也很简单： 销售端淤塞，市场预期下降，老百姓捂着钱包，不买房了。 房企集体躺平，房子卖不动，销售回款速度减缓，拿那么多地干什么？ ...

亿万富翁Peter Thiel旗下基金、桥水基金、软银纷纷减仓英伟达，美国公共债务不断攀升、地缘政治紧张局势以及央行干预措施共同推高了系统性风险，促 使顶级投资者在高估值科技股上采取更为谨慎的立场。尽管如此，市场对英伟达周三即将公布的财报仍抱有乐观期望。 英伟达将于周三美股收盘后公布财报。尽管真金白银的投资者正在撤出，华尔街分析师仍预期公司将交出亮眼业绩。FactSet分析师调查显示，市场预计英 伟达10月季度调整后每股收益为1.23美元，营收548.3亿美元。 01 顶级对冲基金集体减仓 Peter Thiel的Thiel Macro LLC在截至9月30日的季度内出售了全部537，742股英伟达股票。这位硅谷最具影响力的投资者之一的撤离时机引人注目——正值 英伟达市值突破5万亿美元，华尔街分析师普遍将其视为AI领域"不可动摇"的领头羊之际。 桥水基金的调仓更为激进。最新13F文件显示，截至9月30日，桥水持有英伟达251万股，较二季度末的723万股暴降65.3%。这一转变尤为剧烈——就在第 二季度，桥水才对英伟达持仓大幅加码逾150%。两个季度的急转弯标志着明显的策略转向：从"追随趋势"到"风险管理优先" ...

Core Viewpoint - Major institutional investors are selling off Nvidia shares, indicating a shift towards risk management despite the ongoing AI hype [1][2][5]. Group 1: Institutional Investor Actions - Billionaire Peter Thiel's hedge fund, Thiel Macro LLC, sold all 537,742 shares of Nvidia by the end of Q3, coinciding with Nvidia's market cap surpassing $5 trillion [1][4]. - Bridgewater Associates significantly reduced its Nvidia holdings by 65.3%, from 7.23 million shares to 2.51 million shares, marking a strategic shift from trend-following to risk management [4][6]. - SoftBank also disclosed the sale of all its Nvidia shares, reflecting a broader trend among top institutional investors towards cautious repositioning [5][7]. Group 2: Macro Risks and Strategy Shift - The collective withdrawal of institutional investors aligns with warnings from Bridgewater's founder Ray Dalio about the global debt cycle entering a late-stage risk phase, with potential financial crises stemming from sovereign debt issues [3][6]. - Rising U.S. public debt, geopolitical tensions, and central bank interventions are increasing systemic risks, prompting investors to adopt a more cautious stance on high-valuation tech stocks [7]. Group 3: Analyst Expectations for Nvidia - Despite the sell-off by major investors, Wall Street analysts maintain optimistic expectations for Nvidia's upcoming earnings report, with projected adjusted earnings of $1.23 per share and revenue of $54.83 billion for the October quarter [3][8]. - Analysts from D.A. Davidson and Morgan Stanley reaffirmed their buy ratings and set target prices of $250 and $215, respectively, citing strong demand trends in cloud services and potential for robust earnings surprises [9][10].

在经历数日抛售后，从华尔街到普通投资者，几乎所有人都在为AI进行有力辩护，而且，他们的理由都非常有说服力。 然而，多项指标显示当前AI投资已达到极端水平。大型成长股和科技股的持仓回到多季度高点，对冲基金的偏好股票已与散户投机者 趋同。更令人担忧的是，家庭股票敞口创下历史新高，一旦AI科技估值出现裂缝，仅财富效应就可能拖累美国GDP下滑2.9%。 Mag 7期权偏斜度仍处于历史高位 大型科技股的期权偏斜度已达到91百分位数。LSEG数据显示，自2012年5月以来，科技巨头七强(Mag 7)的3个月25 delta看涨期权偏斜 度处于历史高位，反映投资者对上涨的极度乐观预期。 科技股持仓大幅回升 德银数据进一步证实了这一趋势。大型成长股和科技股的持仓水平重新回到多季度高点，显示资金大量涌入这一领域。 对冲基金和散户已别无二致 最值得关注的是对冲基金行为的变化。Empirical Research Partners指出，基本面对冲基金已"拥抱高贝塔股票"，即大型科技AI宠儿。换 言之，对冲基金的偏好股票已与散户投机者别无二致，专业投资与投机资金在同一赛道上拥挤不堪。 系统性风险加剧 产业集中度同样令人担忧。CB I ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS Chairman Colm Kelleher highlighted two major disconnections in global regulation: the lack of oversight in the shadow banking system and inconsistent regulatory speeds across regions [1] Group 1: Regulatory Concerns - Kelleher called for a relaxation of regulations in the banking sector to enable more capital to support credit provision to the real economy [1] - He cited the regulatory failures surrounding the Silicon Valley Bank incident, emphasizing that regulators have been overly rigid in applying rules [1] - The U.S. has recognized the need for effective regulatory mechanisms to promote economic growth after addressing banks' capital issues, with the UK gradually following suit [1] Group 2: Shadow Banking and Systemic Risks - Kelleher pointed out that excessive regulation has led to a significant shift of financial products from the banking system to the shadow banking sector, which is not subject to the same regulatory standards [1] - The U.S. government lacks a comprehensive understanding of the shadow banking situation, as it increasingly favors state-level regulation of the insurance industry over federal oversight, posing systemic risks [1]

Group 1: Insurance Industry Risks - The chairman of UBS warns that the U.S. insurance industry is facing potential risks due to weak and complex regulation, exacerbated by unprecedented private financing growth [1] - There is a significant increase in the allocation of private debt investments by U.S. life insurance companies, with nearly one-third of their $5.6 trillion assets invested in this area last year, up from 22% a decade ago [1] - The rise of small rating agencies, which may be driven by commercial motives, poses a risk of inflated credit assessments, leading to systemic risks in the insurance sector [2] Group 2: Financial System Concerns - Recent bankruptcies of Tricolor Holdings and First Brands Group have raised concerns about potential hidden risks within the financial system, prompting warnings from JPMorgan's CEO [1] - The International Bank for Settlements (BIS) highlights that insurance companies often seek higher ratings to lower capital requirements, which can lead to reliance on smaller rating agencies [2] Group 3: Wealth Management Landscape - UBS chairman criticizes the Swiss market for losing its attractiveness as a wealth management center, facing significant competition from Hong Kong and Singapore [2] - By 2031, the private wealth managed in Hong Kong is expected to nearly double to $2.6 trillion, with Hong Kong projected to surpass Switzerland as the largest cross-border wealth management center this year [2] Group 4: UBS Strategic Moves - UBS is currently integrating Credit Suisse following a rescue plan agreed upon earlier this year, while also seeking to persuade the Swiss government to relax proposed banking regulatory reforms [3]

Core Insights - MiCA regulation aims to end the "Wild West" era of stablecoins but may inadvertently legitimize systemic risks associated with them [1] - The distinction between crypto markets and traditional finance is blurring as stablecoins gain regulatory approval, transforming into mainstream payment instruments [2] - Trust in stablecoins as money could lead to competition with bank deposits, affecting the traditional credit-creating mechanisms [3] Group 1: Regulatory Framework - MiCA addresses micro-prudential issues by ensuring issuers do not collapse but overlooks macro-prudential risks related to large-scale shifts from bank deposits to stablecoins [4] - The Bank of England suggests that widely-used stablecoins should be regulated like banks, proposing caps on holdings to mitigate risks [4] Group 2: Economic Implications - A significant transition from commercial bank deposits to stablecoins could threaten banks' balance sheets, reduce credit availability, and complicate monetary policy transmission [5] - Even regulated stablecoins may pose destabilizing risks as they scale, with MiCA's safeguards not fully addressing these structural concerns [5] Group 3: Offshore Risks - The UK's regulatory approach is cautious towards domestic issuers but lenient on offshore stablecoins, leaving consumers vulnerable to risks from overseas entities [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the international precious metals market experienced widespread selling due to profit-taking by investors after gold prices rose for nine consecutive weeks [1] - On October 21, the most actively traded December 2025 gold futures price fell by $235.8, closing at $4138.5 per ounce, representing a decline of 5.39% [1] - The drop in gold and silver prices was triggered by panic selling from short-term speculators and margin calls, alongside a rebound in market risk appetite earlier in the week [1] Group 2 - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has introduced uncertainty into the precious metals market, affecting the timely release of the CFTC weekly report, which reflects hedge fund and money manager positions in U.S. gold and silver futures [1] - Analysts from ANZ Bank noted that the positions in these futures have accumulated to significant levels, ultimately leading to the sell-off [1] - The market is also awaiting the delayed release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September, which is expected to show a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [2] Group 3 - The December silver futures price fell by 324 cents, closing at $48.160 per ounce, with a decline of 6.30% [3]