憨巴龙王
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憨巴龙王· 2025-10-09 16:35
Market Sentiment - The crypto trading game is becoming increasingly difficult, as evidenced by a trader's quick profit reversal [1] - Fewer "韭菜" (newbie investors) are entering the market, leading to a higher proportion of experienced traders and faster market cycles [1] Profitability & Trader Performance - Some traders are still profiting, suggesting a disparity in skill or strategy [1] - A trader experienced a significant profit swing, quickly losing a large portion of gains [1]
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憨巴龙王· 2025-10-08 20:56
Market Analysis & Risk Assessment - Arbitrage opportunities arise from mechanism vulnerabilities, but are inherently risky, often leading to losses for early participants and gains for later ones [1] - High-yield arbitrage in 2025 carries significant risk [1] - Bybit's lack of limit orders in contracts can lead to 400% premiums, but implementing limit orders is not a guaranteed solution, as manipulation can still occur [1] - All mechanisms are susceptible to manipulation; imperfect mechanisms create opportunities [1] - Manipulators are not infallible and can also incur losses; participants can choose to avoid or align with manipulators [1] Case Studies & Examples - Recent liquidations on Bybit involving tokens like $SERAPH, $RFC, and $GROK resulted in over $10 million in customer losses [1] - OKEx's FIL futures in 2020 and STAR in 2023 experienced manipulation where limit orders prevented stop-loss execution [1] Investor Behavior & Platform Responsibility - Individuals should not blame platforms for losses incurred during arbitrage attempts if the platform mechanisms have vulnerabilities [1] - The article is a good analysis of the recent Bybit liquidations [1]
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憨巴龙王· 2025-10-07 01:51
Market Manipulation & Trading Strategies - Prior to 2021, retail investors primarily engaged in long positions, freely utilizing high leverage in altcoins [1] - By 2022, retail investors began shorting, leading market makers to manipulate altcoin prices by pumping them to induce short positions and then continuously raising spot prices [1] - As of 2025, with retail investors aware of the risks of shorting altcoins, market makers have shifted to exploiting arbitrage opportunities [1] Risk Management & Liquidation - Large-scale liquidations, such as the "pumpbtc" event, exemplify the risks of arbitrage, where a significant price surge led to substantial losses for leveraged traders [1] - Market makers are allegedly targeting large accounts with substantial margin to trigger liquidations by manipulating prices [3] - Even with high leverage (e g, 100x), smaller accounts can manage risk by quickly cutting losses, but larger accounts face challenges in reducing positions due to the potential for accelerated price movements and targeted liquidations [3] Examples of Exploitation - Examples of arbitrage exploitation include Hype on XPL and Seraph on Bybit [2]