买了点 $sapien 和 $met ，感觉币安的合约和现货上新最近有些收紧的趋势。包括天亡级mon也没上现货，前两天的port3合约下架处理也非常快。币安的策略如果调整为熊市谨慎上币的状态话，我觉得币安里的山寨币是很可能有一波财富效应的，毕竟山寨已经熊了很久了，估值也都被杀的极低。而且这样还能拯救一下我们的币安人生😭而 $sapien 和 $met 这两个新币一个是币安机器人赛道的唯一币，一个是有长期稳定可观收入的链上基石dex，感觉可以试试熊市谨慎出手，我自己买的也不多 ...

我真的很好奇，币安为什么给庄币上现货。这个bank是纯纯的庄币，上了给别人框框出货。@heyibinance ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a Maike Futures basis statistics table dated November 7, 2025, at 9:00, sourced from Wind Financial Terminal and Steel Union Data Terminal [2][3] Group 2: Core Data Metals - Copper (CU): The basis rate is 0.03%, with a spot price from SMM 1 electrolytic copper [4] - Aluminum (AL): The basis rate is -0.70%, and the spot price is 21360 from SMM A00 aluminum [4] - Zinc (ZN): The basis rate is -0.42%, and the spot price is 22500 from SMM 0 zinc ingot [4] - Lead (PB): The basis rate is -0.26%, and the spot price is 17225 from SMM 1 lead ingot [4] - Tin (Sn): The basis rate is 0.00%, and the spot price is 282800 from SMM 1 tin [4] - Nickel (NI): The basis rate is 0.95%, and the spot price is 120500 from SMM 1 electrolytic nickel [4] - Industrial Silicon: The basis rate is 4.30%, and the spot price is 9450 from SMM Hualetong Oxygen 553 silicon [4] - Lithium Carbonate: The basis rate is 0.78%, and the spot price is 80340 from domestic 99.5% [4] - Gold (AU): The basis rate is 0.27%, and the spot price is 917.51 from AuT+D: Shanghai Gold Exchange [4] - Silver (AG): The basis rate is 0.27%, and the spot price is 11421 from Ag(T+D): Shanghai Gold Exchange [4] Building Materials - Rebar (RB): The basis rate is 0.54%, and the spot price is 3200 from HRB400: 20mm: Shanghai [4] - Hot Rolled Coil (HC): The basis rate is -0.18%, and the spot price is 3250 from Q235B: 4.75mm: Shanghai [4] - Iron Ore: The basis rate is 6.36%, and the spot price is 826.9 from PB powder: 61%: Qingdao [4] - Coke: The basis rate is -1.30%, and the spot price is 1723 from quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse price: Rizhao Port [4] - Coking Coal (JIM): The basis rate is 0.99%, and the spot price is 1610.0 from Shanxi medium - sulfur main coking coal S1.3 [4] - Steam Coal (ZC): The basis rate is 2.00%, and the spot price is 810.0 from Shanxi Q5500: Qinhuangdao Port [4] - Ferrosilicon (SF): The basis rate is 0.46%, and the spot price is 5210 from FeSi75 - B: Inner Mongolia [4] - Ferromanganese (SM): The basis rate is -0.38%, and the spot price is 5850 from FeMn68Si18: Hebei [4] - Stainless Steel: The basis rate is 1.67%, and the spot price is 12800 from B04/2B: 2.0*1219: Angang Lianzhong Wuxi [4] - Glass (FG): The basis rate is -0.37%, and the spot price is 1130 from North China 5mm float glass market price [4] Agricultural Products - Soybeans: The basis rate is -0.53%, and the spot price is 3920 from domestic third - grade soybeans: Harbin [4] - Soybean Meal (M): The basis rate is 0.81%, and the spot price is 3000 from ordinary protein soybean meal: Zhangjiagang [4] - Rapeseed Meal (RM): The basis rate is -0.49%, and the spot price is 2660 from ordinary rapeseed meal: Nantong [4] - Rapeseed Oil (Ol): The basis rate is -1.39%, and the spot price is 9780 from rapeseed oil: Jiangsu [4] - Peanuts (PK): The basis rate is 0.20%, and the spot price is 8600 from Baisha: 45% oil content, 9% water content, Changtu [4] - Palm Oil (P): The basis rate is -1.13%, and the spot price is 8540 from 24 - degree palm oil: Guangdong [4] - Corn (C): The basis rate is -0.75%, and the spot price is 2165 from second - grade national standard corn at Bayuquan Port [4] - Corn Starch (CS): The basis rate is 1.66%, and the spot price is 2510 from factory price of corn starch: Changchun [4] - Apples (AP): The basis rate is 0.21%, and the spot price is 7800 from Qixia, Luochuan paper - bagged red apples above 80 [4] - Eggs (JD): The basis rate is 2.84%, and the spot price is 2800 from eggs: Hebei Cangzhou [4] - Live Pigs (LH): The basis rate is -0.80%, and the spot price is 11850 from three - way crossbred pigs in Henan [4] - Cotton (CF): The basis rate is 0.04%, and the spot price is 14820 from cotton price index 328: Xinjiang [4] Chemicals - Sugar (SR): The basis rate is -0.14%, and the spot price is 5720 from white sugar: Liuzhou [4] - Methanol (MA): The basis rate is 0.86%, and the spot price is 2118 from methanol: East China [4] - Ethanol (EG): The basis rate is 1.94%, and the spot price is 4000 from ethanol: East China [4] - PTA: The basis rate is -1.44%, and the spot price is 4550 from PTA: East China [4] - Polypropylene (PP): The basis rate is 0.33%, and the spot price is 7000 from Hangzhou Shaoxing Sanyuan T30S market price [4] - Styrene (EB): The basis rate is 0.00%, and the spot price is 6300 from styrene: East China [4] - Short - fiber (PF): The basis rate is -1.13%, and the spot price is 6400 from Fangxiang semi - bright natural white 1.56*38mm polyester [4] - Plastic: The basis rate is 0.14%, and the spot price is 7120 from Yangzi Petrochemical DFDA - 7042: Hangzhou [4] - PVC (V): The basis rate is 0.20%, and the spot price is 5405 from calcium carbide method: East China region [4] - Rubber (RU): The basis rate is -1.25%, and the spot price is 14350 from Thai - produced: Qingdao Free Trade Zone [4] - 20 - number Rubber (NR): The basis rate is -1.22%, and the spot price is 13037 from Thai 20 standard rubber: Qingdao Free Trade Zone [4] - Soda Ash (SA): The basis rate is 0.04%, and the spot price is 1157 from Shahe Chongqing market price [4] - Urea (UR): The basis rate is -0.64%, and the spot price is 1570 from small - particle urea: Henan [4] - Pulp (SP): The basis rate is -0.15%, and the spot price is 5500 from bleached softwood pulp: Silver Star: Chile [4] Energy - Crude Oil (SC): The basis rate is -0.02%, and the spot price is 431.8 from Chinese Shengli: Pacific Rim [4] - Fuel Oil (BU): The basis rate is -0.54%, and the spot price is 2821 from bonded marine fuel oil 380CST: Zhoushan [4] - Asphalt: The basis rate is 0.53%, and the spot price is 3100 from heavy - traffic asphalt: market price: Shandong [4] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil (LU): The basis rate is 0.79%, and the spot price is 3281 from marine fuel oil 0.5% low - sulfur Singapore [4] - LPG (PG): The basis rate is 1.49%, and the spot price is 4448 from market price: Guangzhou [4] Stock Index Futures - CSI 300 (IF): The basis rate is 0.48%, and the spot price is 4693.4 [4] - CSI 500 (IC): The basis rate is -0.34%, and the spot price is 7345.7 [4] - SSE 50 (IH): The basis rate is -0.07%, and the spot price is 3044.7 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating with a target price of 515.00 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 21% from the current price of 425.6 HKD [2][9]. Core Insights - The company reported record-high total revenue of 21.9 billion HKD in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 37%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 13.4 billion HKD, up 45% year-on-year, and EBITDA reached 17.2 billion HKD, reflecting a 48% increase year-on-year [6][9]. - The report highlights strong performance across various business segments, with significant growth in spot trading and derivatives, driven by increased international capital inflow into the Hong Kong market [6][9]. - The report projects continued growth in net profit for the years 2025 to 2027, with expected figures of 17.8 billion HKD, 19.9 billion HKD, and 21.3 billion HKD respectively, indicating year-on-year growth rates of 36%, 12%, and 7% [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2025 total revenue was 21.9 billion HKD, with a 37% year-on-year increase. Net profit was 13.4 billion HKD, up 45% year-on-year, and EBITDA was 17.2 billion HKD, reflecting a 48% increase year-on-year. The EBITDA margin improved to 79%, up 5 percentage points year-on-year [6][9]. - The revenue breakdown for Q3 2025 shows significant contributions from various segments: spot trading (11.1 billion HKD, +75% YoY), equity securities and derivatives (5.3 billion HKD, +17% YoY), and others [6][9]. Market Activity - The report notes that the Hong Kong IPO market remains robust, with 69 new listings in Q3 2025, raising 188.3 billion HKD, more than three times the amount raised in Q3 2024 [7][9]. - The average daily trading volume (ADT) for the Hong Kong Stock Exchange reached 238.7 billion HKD in Q3 2025, a 132% increase year-on-year, indicating heightened trading activity [6][9]. Investment Outlook - The report emphasizes the favorable macroeconomic environment, including easing US-China tensions and supportive national policies, which are expected to sustain investor interest in Hong Kong and Asian assets [9]. - The projected financials for the upcoming years indicate a strong growth trajectory, with total revenue expected to reach 29.3 billion HKD in 2025, a 31% increase from 2024 [8][9].

Group 1: Core View - The continuous decrease in internal and external lead inventories supports the price [1] Group 2: Fundamental Tracking Price and Volume - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 17,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.03%; the closing price of the LME 3M electronic lead contract was 2,019 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.30% [1] - The trading volume of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 39,452 lots, a decrease of 6,873; the trading volume of LME lead was 6,134 lots, an increase of 299 [1] - The open interest of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 69,287 lots, a decrease of 4,231; the open interest of LME lead was 153,088 lots, an increase of 318 [1] Premium and Discount - The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 10; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -35.12 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.12 [1] - The PB00 - PB01 spread was 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5; the import premium was 90 dollars/ton, unchanged [1] Import Profit and Loss - The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -188.65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27.3; the import profit and loss of the third - consecutive Shanghai lead futures contract was -138 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.43 [1] Inventory - The Shanghai lead futures inventory was 21,645 tons, a decrease of 1,352; the LME lead inventory was 224,175 tons, a decrease of 700 [1] - The LME lead cancelled warrants were 141,425 tons, a decrease of 5,025 [1] Other Data - The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,025 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of recycled refined lead was 17,150 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - The comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was 160 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Group 3: News - Xi Jinping met with US President Trump in Busan, and the China - US economic and trade teams reached consensus on three aspects of achievements [1] - The European Central Bank "stood pat" for the third time, keeping the deposit rate at 2% unchanged, and the economic resilience withstood the trade headwinds [1] Group 4: Lead Trend Intensity - The lead trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) is expected to report strong earnings growth for Q3 2025, driven by high trading activity and increased revenue from main fee categories, despite a decline in investment income due to margin pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Earnings Forecast - Q3 2025 earnings are projected to increase by 49% year-on-year and 5% quarter-on-quarter, reaching HKD 46.8 billion [1]. - Total revenue for Q3 2025 is expected to rise by 40% year-on-year and 4% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 75.3 billion, with main fee income increasing by 57% year-on-year and 18% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 65.1 billion [1]. Group 2: Trading Activity - Trading activity remains robust, with Q3 average daily turnover (ADT) expected to rise by 141% year-on-year and 20% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 2,864 billion [1]. - Southbound ADT is anticipated to increase by 285% year-on-year and 36% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 1,525 billion, accounting for 26.6% of Hong Kong stocks [1]. - Northbound ADT is projected to grow by 144% year-on-year and 77% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 2,687 billion, representing 7.1% of A-shares [1]. Group 3: Investment Income and Margin Pressure - Investment income for Q3 2025 is expected to decline by 18% year-on-year and 36% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 9.9 billion due to margin pressures [2]. - The narrowing of margin interest spreads is anticipated as long-term yields decline while short-term costs rise, alongside a decrease in derivative margin requirements due to lower market volatility [2]. Group 4: Market Conditions and Future Outlook - The basic fundamentals of the market remain solid, with October ADT reaching HKD 2,880 billion, indicating sustained high trading activity [2]. - The potential for a rapid interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in Q4 could support liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market [2]. - The company is advised to focus on the valuation adjustments following changes in risk appetite among investors [2]. Group 5: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025 has been raised by 3% to HKD 171 billion, while the 2026 forecast remains unchanged [2]. - The current trading multiples are at 31x for both 2025 and 2026 earnings, with a target price maintained at HKD 500, indicating an 18% upside potential [2].

Core Viewpoint - CICC has raised its profit forecast for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) for 2025 by 3% to HKD 17.1 billion, while maintaining the 2026 forecast largely unchanged. The current trading multiples are at 31x for both 2025 and 2026 P/E, with a target price of HKD 500, indicating an 18% upside potential [1]. Group 1 - The forecast for Q3 2025 indicates a year-on-year profit increase of 49% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5% [2]. - CICC expects Q3 revenue to rise by 40% year-on-year and 4% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 75.3 billion, with core fee income projected to increase by 57% year-on-year and 18% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 65.1 billion [2]. - CICC anticipates total revenue and profit for the first three quarters of 2025 to increase by 35% and 42% year-on-year, reaching HKD 216.1 billion and HKD 132.0 billion, respectively [2]. Group 2 - Trading activity remains robust, with Q3 average daily turnover (ADT) expected to rise by 141% year-on-year and 20% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 286.4 billion [2]. - Southbound ADT is projected to increase by 285% year-on-year and 36% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 152.5 billion, accounting for 26.6% of Hong Kong stocks [2]. - The number of IPOs in Q3 is expected to reach 25, raising HKD 73.5 billion, which is a 74% year-on-year increase but a 19% quarter-on-quarter decrease [2]. Group 3 - Investment income is expected to decline by 18% year-on-year and 36% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 9.9 billion in Q3 2025 [3]. - The narrowing of margin interest spreads is anticipated due to a decline in long-term yields and a rise in short-term borrowing costs, which may negatively impact investment income [3]. - Market volatility is expected to decrease, leading to a reduction in margin requirements for derivatives trading, further affecting investment income performance [3]. Group 4 - The fundamental outlook for HKEX remains strong, with high trading activity supported by a favorable liquidity environment for foreign capital [4]. - The average daily turnover for Hong Kong stocks reached HKD 288 billion in October, indicating sustained high trading activity [4]. - CICC suggests that the anticipated easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve could support liquidity in the Hong Kong market, presenting potential investment opportunities [4].

有人知道，这种情况，bybit爆仓是按指数价格（现货）触发的吧？那跟3.12一样，100%不会爆，随便滚仓空？憨巴龙王 (@dotyyds1234):不知道啥情况啊，看到晚了，正好空在山顶，有点后怕啊。我要是0.6看到，肯定也空了，后面拉3倍，给我拉爆了（bybit没钱）。运气好....正好看到的时候就在最高点。 https://t.co/ni8VvxLH0k ...

Core Viewpoint - The Indonesian central bank aims to stabilize the Indonesian Rupiah and ensure sufficient market liquidity through market operations and a "triple intervention" strategy involving various financial instruments [1] Group 1: Central Bank Actions - The Indonesian central bank will utilize offshore/onshore non-deliverable forward (NDF) contracts, spot markets, and bond markets as part of its intervention strategy [1] - The bank plans to provide liquidity support to banks through repurchase agreements, foreign exchange swaps, and loan instruments to stabilize the Rupiah exchange rate [1] Group 2: Currency Performance - As of September 1, the exchange rate of the Indonesian Rupiah against the US Dollar was reported at 16,472, reflecting an increase of 28 points or 0.17% compared to the closing price on August 29 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) with a target price of HKD 515.00, indicating a potential upside of 17% from the current price of HKD 441.2 [2][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights that HKEX achieved record half-year results in H1 2025, with total revenue of HKD 14.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 8.5 billion, up 39% year-on-year [1][5]. - The report emphasizes strong trading activity in both the cash and derivatives markets, contributing to the revenue and profit growth [5][8]. - The report projects continued growth in net profit for HKEX, estimating HKD 16.6 billion, HKD 18.1 billion, and HKD 19.5 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 27%, 9%, and 7% respectively [8]. Financial Performance Summary - H1 2025 financial highlights include: - Total revenue: HKD 14.1 billion, +33% YoY - Net profit: HKD 8.5 billion, +39% YoY - EBITDA: HKD 10.9 billion, +43% YoY, with an EBITDA margin of 79%, up 6 percentage points YoY [1][5][8]. - Revenue breakdown by business segment for H1 2025: - Cash market: HKD 6.7 billion, +62% YoY - Equity securities and financial derivatives: HKD 3.55 billion, +15% YoY - Other segments also showed positive growth [5][8]. Market Activity - The report notes that the cash market saw record trading volumes, with average daily turnover (ADT) reaching HKD 222.8 billion, a 122% increase YoY [5][6]. - The primary market experienced a strong momentum with 44 new listings in H1 2025, raising HKD 109.4 billion, which is more than eight times the amount raised in H1 2024 [8][34]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides projected financial metrics for HKEX: - Revenue growth forecast for 2025: HKD 27.8 billion, +24% YoY - Projected PE ratio for 2025: 22.23 [7][33]. - The report indicates a strong return on equity (ROE) of 25.1% and a book value per share of HKD 41.0 [2][7].