证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 08 月 20 日 香港交易所（00388.HK） 交投热烈带动业绩创半年度历史新高 总量研究/非银行金融 港交所公布 25 年中报：25H1 营业总收入为 141 亿港元，同比+33%；归母净 利润为 85 亿港元，同比+39%；EBITDA 为 109 亿港元，同比+43%。 强烈推荐（维持） 目标估值：515.00 港元 当前股价：441.2 港元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 1268 | | --- | --- | | 香港股（百万股） | 1268 | | 总市值（十亿港元） | 559.4 | | 香港股市值（十亿港元） | 559.4 | | 每股净资产（港元） | 41.0 | | ROE（TTM） | 25.1 | | 资产负债率 | 86.2% | | 主要股东 | JPMorgan Chase & | | | Co. | | 主要股东持股比例 | 6.8756% | 股价表现 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 2 29 95 相对表现 0 19 52 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 A ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The LME lead inventory has decreased, providing support for lead prices [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE lead main contract was 16,775 yuan/ton, down 0.45%; the closing price of LME lead 3M electronic disk was 1,981 dollars/ton, also down 0.45% [1]. - **Volume**: The trading volume of SHFE lead main contract was 30,595 lots, a decrease of 2,006 lots; the trading volume of LME lead was 3,833 lots, a decrease of 1,426 lots [1]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of SHFE lead main contract was 49,496 lots, a decrease of 1,711 lots; the open interest of LME lead was 159,114 lots, a decrease of 522 lots [1]. - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was -25 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -43.24 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.37 dollars/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: SHFE lead futures inventory was 62,225 tons, an increase of 441 tons; LME lead inventory was 260,475 tons, a decrease of 625 tons [1]. - **Scrap Battery and Refined Lead**: The price of scrap electric vehicle batteries was 10,175 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of recycled refined lead was 16,675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [1]. - **Profit and Loss**: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -486.03 yuan/ton, an increase of 48.91 yuan/ton; the SHFE lead continuous third - month import profit and loss was -536.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.92 yuan/ton [1]. News - The US PPI in July increased by 0.9% month - on - month, the highest monthly growth rate in three years, far exceeding the Wall Street expectation of 0.2%, indicating that enterprises are passing on the rising import costs related to tariffs [1]. - Trump told Zelensky that if everything goes well, a tri - lateral meeting between the US, Russia, and Ukraine will be held [1]. Lead Trend Intensity The lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [1].

轻资本属性保证高利润率和高ROE，业绩与交投活跃度高度关联。现货、股本证券及金融衍生品、商品 分部、数据业务为公司主要来源，前两者收入贡献较大、24 年占比达七成；与交投活跃度关联较高的 交易费及系统使用费、结算及交收费用收入占比达到53%。平台化轻资本的商业模式和高水平的股东派 息率，一方面保证了港交所成本相对收入较为刚性、规模优势显著，使得港交所净利润率、EBITDA 利 润率长年维持在58%、75%左右；另一方面使得港交所净资产增速相对温和、保证了ROE 维持在相对高 位，近十余年ROE 中位数可达23%。 资产、资金的双重共振，驱动港交所估值提升。资产端，港股资产结构更优、多数行业基本面更佳，加 之"新经济"叙事逻辑为资金接受、盈利改善/兑现预期渐强，带动港股相关板块交投热度和估值提升； 政策支持A 股公司赴港二次上市、香港市场桥头堡地位凸显；中美潜在的地缘政治压力持续加强在美优 质资产回流预期，有效增厚港股市值和成交。资金端，互联互通持续畅通、港股估值折价优势，吸引高 换手率的南向资金涌入；联系汇率制下，美联储降息周期将近保证HIBOR 维持较低水平，充裕的市场 流动性一方面支持市场活跃度持续、另一 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term supply and demand of lead are both weak, while the medium - term outlook is bullish [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 16,765 yuan/ton, down 0.09%; the closing price of the LME 3M electronic lead futures was 1,974 US dollars/ton, down 0.35%. The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 27,538 lots, a decrease of 3,315 lots; the trading volume of LME lead futures was 4,570 lots, an increase of 285 lots. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 49,567 lots, a decrease of 408 lots; the open interest of LME lead futures was 146,481 lots, a decrease of 670 lots [1]. - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was - 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium was - 22.25 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1.25 US dollars/ton. The PB00 - PB01 spread was - 45 yuan/ton, unchanged; the import premium was 105 US dollars/ton, unchanged [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai lead futures was 41,799 tons, unchanged; the LME lead inventory was 279,975 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons. The LME lead cancelled warrants were 93,700 tons, an increase of 48,700 tons [1]. - **Other Indicators**: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was - 852.42 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.16 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous - three contract was - 745.64 yuan/ton, an increase of 23.62 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,125 yuan/ton, unchanged; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was - 502 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. 3.2 News - In May, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and changed from an increase to a decrease month - on - month. The year - on - year decline of PPI widened to 3.3%. China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 4.8% year - on - year, while imports decreased by 3.4%. In May, China's rare earth export volume increased by nearly 23% month - on - month, soybean import volume increased by 129% month - on - month, reaching a record high, and coal and oil import volumes decreased [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lead is 1, indicating a neutral - to - bullish trend [2].

Group 1 - The core concept of options hedging is to use the characteristics of options to offset potential losses in spot or futures positions, thereby achieving risk management and profit protection [6][4] - Options hedging involves establishing an options position that generates returns to compensate for losses in the underlying spot or futures, aiming to lock in or reduce price risk [6][4] - The principle of futures hedging is based on the high correlation between the prices of the same underlying asset in the spot, futures, and options markets, where futures prices generally move in the same direction as spot prices [3][4] Group 2 - Protective hedging can be classified into two types based on the intent of the hedger: purchasing call options for consumers to prevent price increases, and purchasing put options for producers to prevent price decreases [7][6] - The protective hedging strategy allows for locking in losses while retaining the potential for profit, functioning as an insurance strategy against adverse price movements [6][7] - The number of options contracts for hedging should typically match the size of the underlying spot or futures position, but adjustments can be made based on market volatility assessments for better hedging effectiveness [8][7]

投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 资料来源：同花顺期货通（日线图表） 1 【冠通研究】 下游承接力度不足，盘面承压 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 27 日 【策略分析】 沪铜今日低开低走震荡收跌。刚果大型铜矿（卡库拉）因地震停产，并撤回 2025 年 产量指引，加深矿端供应趋紧预期。供给方面，截止 5 月 23 日，我国现货粗炼费(TC)- 44.3 美元/干吨，RC 费用-4.44 美分/磅，TC/RC 费用依然处于负值，但下滑幅度明显放 缓，冶炼厂暂时没有大幅检修，主要系长协订单及副产品弥补亏损，但利润负值状态 下，市场偏紧预期依然存在。4 月精炼铜(电解铜)产量 125.4 万吨，同比增加 9%;进口精 炼铜数量 30.02 万吨，同比降低 11.97%，国内精炼铜产量维持高位，同比增速大幅增 加，位于历年同期高位水平，目前市场对铜供应紧张预期尚未兑现，实质供应尚未减 弱。需求方面，下游对高价铜持谨慎态度，对价格接受度转弱，需求目前环比减弱，进 入消费淡季，下游补库力度偏弱势。除地产板块外,终端需求表现依然向好，截至 4 月 底，全国累计发电装机容 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View The market sentiment is cautious, and the non - ferrous metals sector is oscillating. For copper, although there are some positive trade news, the upward momentum of copper prices is weak after a recent rebound. For zinc, the long - term bearish logic remains, and zinc prices are under pressure in the short term. For nickel, it is expected to be strong in the short term, but there is still pressure of supply surplus in the long term [8][88][206]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01. Non - ferrous Metals Price Monitoring - Various non - ferrous metals have different price changes. For example, the US dollar index is at 100.4 with a daily decline of 0.21%, a weekly increase of 0.38%, and an annual decline of 7.43%. Industrial silicon is at 8,205 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 1.32%, a weekly decline of 3.92%, and an annual decline of 25.31% [5]. 02. Copper (CU) - **Influencing Factors and Drives** - Macro factors are neutral to bearish due to China's monetary policies, the Fed's stance, and Sino - US talks. The raw material end is bullish as copper mine processing fees decline and port inventories increase. The smelting end is neutral with increased losses for smelters. The demand end is neutral with fluctuating downstream demand. The inventory is bullish as domestic copper inventories decrease [8]. - **Price and Market Conditions** - Copper prices are oscillating at a high level. The structural squeeze - out market of Shanghai copper continues, and the import window is opened periodically. The refined copper output is increasing, while the copper rod processing fee is declining, and the copper rod production rate is changing [13][24][52]. - **Investment and Trading** - The investment view is oscillating to bearish. The trading strategy is to be short - term bearish for unilateral trading and no arbitrage [8]. 03. Zinc (ZN) - **Influencing Factors and Drives** - Macro factors are bearish considering China's trade data, the Fed's decision, and domestic policies. The raw material end is neutral with changes in processing fees and inventory. The smelting end is neutral with a slight reduction in supply. The demand end is bearish as downstream demand is weak. The inventory is bullish as the social inventory increase during the festival is limited [88]. - **Price and Market Conditions** - Zinc prices are weakening due to the stalemate in Sino - US tariff negotiations. The domestic processing fee is increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the refined zinc import window is opened [90][106]. - **Investment and Trading** - The investment view is oscillating. The trading strategy is to be bearish for unilateral trading and wait - and - see for arbitrage [88]. 04. Nickel (NI) - **Influencing Factors and Drives** - Macro factors are neutral with China's policies and the Fed's stance. The raw material end is bullish with the impact of policies and inventory changes. The smelting end is neutral with different production situations of various nickel products. The demand end is neutral to bearish as stainless steel production is reduced and the new - energy demand has its own characteristics. The inventory is neutral with a slight decline [206]. - **Price and Market Conditions** - The news of the Philippines' potential nickel - mining ban has affected the market, and nickel prices rose sharply on Friday night. Nickel - iron prices have dropped significantly, and the prices of other related products also have certain changes [208][225]. - **Investment and Trading** - The investment view is short - term bullish. The trading strategy is to conduct short - term range trading for unilateral trading and go long on nickel and short on stainless steel for arbitrage [206].

Group 1 - Coinbase has agreed to acquire Deribit for $2.9 billion, marking the largest acquisition in the history of the digital market [1] - The transaction structure includes $700 million in cash and the remainder in stock [2] - Following the announcement, Coinbase's stock rose nearly 5% to about $206, although it has declined approximately 20% since the beginning of the year [2] Group 2 - Bitcoin's price surpassed $100,000 for the first time since February [4] - Greg Tusar, Coinbase's head of institutional products, believes that the crypto options market is on the verge of significant expansion, similar to the stock options boom in the 1990s [7] - The acquisition is subject to regulatory approval and is expected to be completed by the end of the year [7] Group 3 - The acquisition reflects a broader trend of mergers and acquisitions in the crypto market, with Ripple acquiring Hidden Road for $1.25 billion and MGX injecting $2 billion into Binance [8] - Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers stated that the acquisition will accelerate their established foundation and provide more opportunities for traders across various products [8] - Mark Palmer, a senior analyst at Benchmark Company, noted that this deal will position Coinbase as a leader in the high-growth derivatives space, anticipating increased institutional adoption of digital assets [8] Group 4 - The derivatives market has seen significant borrowing by traders to enhance their cryptocurrency investment leverage, despite facing challenges three years ago [9] - The industry experienced a series of high-profile bankruptcies and hacks in 2022, severely undermining investor confidence, notably the collapse of FTX [9]