6 特步国际（1368） 更新报告 买入 2024 年 08 月 22 日 2024 年上半年业绩符合预期, 预计全年利润能达 20%的增长 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|----------------|----------------|--------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Telecom with a target price of HKD 6.0, indicating a potential upside of 31% from the current price of HKD 4.6 [2][3]. Core Insights - China Telecom's service revenue growth exceeded expectations, achieving RMB 268 billion in revenue for H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, with service revenue at RMB 246.2 billion, up 4.3% year-on-year [2]. - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of 70%, with plans to increase this to over 75% within three years [2]. - The mobile ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) showed steady growth, reaching RMB 46.3, a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year, while broadband ARPU was RMB 48.3, also up 0.2% year-on-year [2]. - The company is focusing on digital transformation, with digital revenue accounting for 30% of service revenue, and cloud services revenue growing by 20.4% year-on-year [2]. - Capital expenditures are projected to be around RMB 96 billion for the year, with a capital expenditure to revenue ratio expected to remain below 20% [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2024, EBITDA was RMB 76.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, and net profit reached RMB 21.8 billion, up 8.2% year-on-year [2]. - The company forecasts revenue growth rates of 4.4%, 4.2%, and 3.9% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profit growth rates of 9.0%, 8.8%, and 8.2% for the same years [3]. Market Position - China Telecom continues to lead in mobile and broadband ARPU growth compared to industry peers, indicating a strong competitive position [2]. - The company is actively expanding its 5G network, with over 1.31 million 5G base stations built, ensuring coverage in towns and above nationwide [2]. Future Outlook - The report expresses optimism about China Telecom's role in national digital infrastructure development and its potential for future growth, particularly in cloud computing and AI applications [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 55, representing a potential upside of 37.5% from the last closing price of HKD 40 [1]. Core Insights - The company's Q2 2024 performance exceeded market expectations, with revenue reaching RMB 30.9 billion (QoQ +5.3%, YoY +11.6%) and adjusted net profit at RMB 4.68 billion (QoQ +6.6%, YoY +73.7%), marking a historical high [1]. - The growth in online marketing revenue was significant, amounting to RMB 17.5 billion (QoQ +5.2%, YoY +22.1%), driven by improvements in advertising strategies and algorithms [1]. - E-commerce GMV for Q2 2024 was RMB 305.3 billion (QoQ +6.0%, YoY +15.0%), with a notable increase in the share of general merchandise GMV [1]. Financial Performance - The gross profit for Q2 2024 was RMB 17.1 billion, with a gross margin of 55.3%, up 5.1% year-on-year [1]. - The adjusted net profit margin reached 15.1%, indicating strong profitability despite challenges in e-commerce growth [1]. - The company reported a significant reduction in overseas losses, with overseas revenue of RMB 1.1 billion (QoQ +11.0%, YoY +141.4%) [1]. User Metrics - Daily active users (DAU) for Q2 2024 were 395 million (QoQ +0.4%, YoY +5.1%), while monthly active users (MAU) were 692 million (QoQ -0.8%, YoY +2.7%) [1]. - The average daily usage time per user was 122 minutes, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.3% [1]. Market Position - The company is positioned in the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector, with a current market capitalization of HKD 174.1 billion [1]. - Major shareholders include Tencent, holding 15.7% of the company [1].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 21.00, indicating a potential upside of 23.55% from the current stock price of HKD 17.00 [1][3]. Core Insights - The company reported Q2 2024 revenue of USD 1.90 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.6%, slightly above market expectations [1]. - The guidance for Q3 2024 indicates a revenue increase of 13%-15% to USD 2.15-2.19 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of USD 1.87 billion, with a gross margin expected between 18%-20% [1]. - The demand for consumer electronics is recovering, contributing to a 35.6% revenue increase, particularly in gaming, toys, and smart furniture [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q2 2024 operating profit was USD 90 million, a 9.2% increase year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 59.1% to USD 160 million, resulting in a net profit margin of 8.7% [1]. - The average monthly capacity for 8-inch wafers is projected to reach 850,000 pieces in 2024, with a capital expenditure guidance of USD 7.5 billion for the year [1][4]. Market Outlook - The semiconductor cycle is expected to recover, driven by a gradual increase in capacity utilization rates and a rebound in consumer electronics demand [1]. - The company anticipates a revenue CAGR of 27% and a net profit CAGR of 14.1% over the next three years [1]. Valuation Metrics - The report estimates a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.0 for valuation purposes, supporting the target price of HKD 21.00 [1][3]. - The company holds a 5.5% market share in the global wafer foundry industry, which is expected to increase to 8.0% by year-end [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for the company with a target price of **HKD 29.40**, representing a **23.0%** upside from the current price [3][4] Core Views - The company maintains its **leading position** in the industry despite intense competition in the personal care market [2] - Revenue decreased by **3.0%** to **RMB 11.84 billion** in H1 2024, but key upgraded and premium products grew by over **10%**, and e-commerce channels grew by **6.5%**, now accounting for **32%** of total revenue [2] - Gross margin improved by **2.3 percentage points** to **33.73%**, driven by lower raw material costs and growth in premium products [2] - Operating profit and net profit attributable to shareholders increased by **11.4%** and **15.0%** to **RMB 1.89 billion** and **RMB 1.41 billion**, respectively [2] - The company has a strong balance sheet with **RMB 5.41 billion** in net cash [2] Business Performance - Tissue business revenue decreased by **3.1%** to **RMB 6.95 billion**, with volume growing by double digits but average selling price (ASP) declining by **12%** [2] - Tissue gross margin improved by **1.9 percentage points** to **19.6%** [2] - Sanitary napkin business revenue decreased by **2.2%** to **RMB 3.15 billion**, with volume flat and ASP declining by **2%** [2] - Sanitary napkin gross margin improved by **0.9 percentage points** to **62.7%** [2] - Diaper business revenue grew by **7.0%** to **RMB 710 million**, with gross margin improving from **36.0%** to **45.3%**, driven by strong growth in the premium product "Q•MO" [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to decline by **1.6%** in 2024 to **RMB 23.38 billion**, but grow by **2.3%** and **2.1%** in 2025 and 2026, respectively [5] - Net profit is forecasted to decline by **3.6%** in 2024 to **RMB 2.70 billion**, but grow by **5.9%** and **4.4%** in 2025 and 2026, respectively [5] - Basic EPS is projected to be **RMB 2.33** in 2024, **RMB 2.46** in 2025, and **RMB 2.57** in 2026 [5] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to be **9.5x** in 2024, **9.0x** in 2025, and **8.6x** in 2026 [5] Financial Health - The company has a strong balance sheet with a **net cash position** of **RMB 5.41 billion** [2] - Net debt ratio is expected to improve from **-0.07** in 2022 to **-0.48** in 2026, indicating a strong cash position [6] - ROE is projected to increase from **34.1%** in 2022 to **36.0%** in 2026 [6] Dividend Policy - The company has consistently paid a dividend of **RMB 1.40** per share, with a dividend yield of **6.3%** [1][3] - The interim dividend for H1 2024 is **RMB 0.70** per share [2]

金蝶国际（0268） 更新报告 持有 2024 年 8 月 19 日 公司营收和盈利受短期宏观影响，云订阅模式转型持续推进 24H1 亏损逐步缩窄，回购力度加大：2024 年上半年公司实现营业收入 28.7 亿元，同比增长 11.9%，其中云服务收入 23.9 亿元，同比增长 17.2%，云订阅服务年经常性收入(ARR)约为 31.5 亿元，同比增长 24.2%， 云订阅服务相关合同负债实现同比增长 28.2%。归属于股东应占亏损 2.2 亿 元，去年同期亏损 2.8 亿元，亏损同比缩窄 23.2%，主要是大型企业业务规 模效应所致。上半年经营现金净流出 1.7 亿元,公司年初至今回购 4730 万 股，回购金额达 4 亿港元。 大企业客户保持高增长，加速国际化布局：上半年云服务收入 23.9 亿元， 同比增长 17.2%，占收入比为 83.2%。其中企业云服务收入 16.8 亿元，同 比增长 19.9%。大型企业方面，金蝶云·苍穹和星瀚上半年录得收入 5.5 亿 元，同比增长 38.9%，签约合同金额 9 亿元，签约新客户 275 家，订阅 ARR 增速超过 29%，净金额续费率达 97%。中型企业方面，金 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Unicom with a target price of HKD 7.6, representing a potential upside of 17% from the current stock price of HKD 6.5 [1][3]. Core Insights - China Unicom has achieved double-digit profit growth for eight consecutive years, with a dividend payout ratio increased to 55% [1]. - The company's revenue for the first half of 2024 reached RMB 197.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, while service revenue was RMB 175.7 billion, up 2.7% year-on-year [1]. - The EBITDA for the same period was RMB 55 billion, reflecting a 2.7% year-on-year growth, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 13.8 billion, marking an 11.3% increase year-on-year [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, China Unicom's operating income was RMB 197.3 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 2.9%. The service revenue was RMB 175.7 billion, growing by 2.7% year-on-year. EBITDA reached RMB 55 billion, also up by 2.7% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 13.8 billion, reflecting an 11.3% increase year-on-year [1][6]. - The company reported a return on equity of 3.7%, an increase of 0.26% year-on-year, and a debt-to-asset ratio of 45.5%, down by 1% year-on-year [1]. Business Segments - The internet communication service revenue for the first half of 2024 was RMB 125.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, accounting for three-quarters of the main business. The mobile user base reached 340 million, with a net addition of 6 million users, and the penetration rate of 5G packages exceeded 80% [1]. - The smart network business saw rapid growth, with revenue of RMB 43.5 billion, up 6.6% year-on-year, contributing over 60% of the new service revenue. Cloud revenue was RMB 31.7 billion, growing by 24.3% year-on-year [1]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a gradual increase in the dividend payout ratio to 70% in the future, despite a downward adjustment in revenue growth expectations for 2024-2026 to 3.8%, 3.7%, and 3.6% respectively [1][4]. - The target price of HKD 7.6 is based on a 10x earnings multiple for 2024 profits, reflecting the company's solid fundamentals and potential for increased dividends [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 15.77, representing a potential upside of 20.3% from the current price of HKD 13.10 [2]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first half of 2024 was RMB 14.35 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.3%. The growth rates for various segments were as follows: retail (+2.7%), wholesale (-1.9%), e-commerce (+11.3%), and overseas business (-15.9%). Notably, the running category saw a significant increase of 25% [1]. - Gross margin improved by 1.6 percentage points to 50.4%, attributed to better discount management on new products and a higher proportion of revenue from direct-to-consumer channels [1]. - Operating expenses increased by 2.5 percentage points to 34.9%, primarily due to higher marketing, advertising, rent, and salary costs, as well as increased investments in information systems and depreciation [1]. - The company declared an interim dividend of RMB 0.3775 per share, with a payout ratio increased to 50% [1]. - The company’s cash flow from operations was RMB 2.73 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 40.6%, and net cash stood at RMB 17.6 billion [1]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year 2022, the company reported revenue of RMB 25.80 billion, which increased to RMB 27.60 billion in 2023, with a forecast of RMB 28.28 billion for 2024, indicating a growth rate of 2.5% [3]. - The net profit for 2022 was RMB 4.06 billion, which decreased to RMB 3.19 billion in 2023, with a forecast of RMB 3.16 billion for 2024 [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) were RMB 1.55 in 2022, dropping to RMB 1.22 in 2023, with a forecast of RMB 1.21 for 2024 [3]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve gradually, reaching 50.2% by 2026 [4]. Operational Metrics - The company’s inventory turnover was reported at 3.9 months, with 87% of inventory being less than six months old. Total inventory increased by 9% year-on-year to RMB 2.46 billion [1]. - The average monthly sales per store were RMB 310,000, with a total of approximately 1,650 stores [1]. - The company’s debt-to-asset ratio is projected to decrease from 0.29 in 2023 to 0.26 in 2024, indicating a strengthening balance sheet [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 43.54, equivalent to 14 times the 2024 EV/EBITDA [1][2]. Core Insights - The company's net revenue for Q2 2024 increased by 26.1% year-on-year and 3.5% quarter-on-quarter, reaching HKD 10.92 billion, recovering to 82.9% of the same period in 2019 [1]. - The VIP gaming table turnover rose by 58.9% year-on-year and 20.0% quarter-on-quarter, while mass gaming revenue grew by 31.9% year-on-year and 7.3% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The adjusted EBITDA increased by 28.4% year-on-year and 12.0% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 3.18 billion, with an EBITDA margin of 29.1% [1]. - The company announced an interim dividend of HKD 0.5 per share, increasing the payout ratio to 50% [1]. - The company is expanding its offerings with the introduction of a new hotel brand and ongoing construction projects, which are expected to enhance its market position [1]. Financial Summary - Total net revenue for 2023 was HKD 35.68 billion, with a projected increase to HKD 43.91 billion in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 23.1% [3][4]. - The EBITDA for 2023 was HKD 9.96 billion, with a forecasted increase to HKD 12.62 billion in 2024, indicating a growth of 26.8% [3][4]. - Net profit for 2023 was HKD 6.83 billion, expected to rise to HKD 9.72 billion in 2024, showing a growth of 42.3% [3][4]. - The company’s cash position remains strong, with net cash of HKD 25.2 billion, one of the strongest in the industry [1].

Blackrock (2.25%) 总营业收入（人民币百万元） 554,552 609,015 660,135 720,379 778,596 变动 -0.99% 9.82% 8.39% 9.13% 8.08% 经调整净利润 115,649 157,688 226,524 259,907 284,799 变动 -6.57% 36.35% 43.65% 14.74% 9.58% 经调整每股盈利（人民币元） 11.93 16.41 24.00 27.83 30.66 变动 -6.05% 37.55% 46.23% 15.97% 10.17% 股息 2.40 3.40 4.30 5.00 5.60 市盈率368.4港元（估） 28.39 20.64 14.11 12.17 11.05 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 盈利能力持续改善，游戏业务企稳回升 富达 (1.59%) 截至12月31日止财政年度 22年实际 23年实际 24年预测 25年预测 26年预测 来源: 公司资料, 第一上海预测 来源: Bloomberg 游戏业务企稳回升: 2024Q2 国际市场游戏业务录 ...