Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 19.35, indicating a potential upside of 35.4% from the current price of HKD 14.30 [4][6]. Core Insights - The company maintains a strong position in sales and investment, ranking second in contract sales for the first half of 2025, with a total contract sales amount of approximately RMB 120.15 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 19.0% [2]. - The company has a robust land reserve, with a total land bank of approximately 40.47 million square meters as of June 2025, and 86% of new land investments concentrated in first-tier and strong second-tier cities [2]. - Despite a decline in profit margins, the company continues to lead the industry with a gross margin of 17.4% and a core net profit margin of 10.6% [3]. - The company has made significant progress in commercial operations, with a commercial operating income of RMB 3.54 billion, and its first REIT has been accepted for review by regulatory authorities [4]. Summary by Sections Sales and Investment - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved contract sales of approximately RMB 120.15 billion, with a sales area of about 5.12 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 19.0% and 5.9% respectively. The average selling price increased by 1% to RMB 23,500 per square meter [2]. Land Reserve - The company acquired land worth RMB 40.37 billion in the first half of 2025, with a total land bank of approximately 40.47 million square meters as of June 2025. The new land investments are primarily in first-tier and strong second-tier cities, accounting for 86% of the total [2]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 decreased by 4.3% to RMB 83.22 billion, with a gross margin of 17.4%, down by 4.7 percentage points year-on-year. The core net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 17.5% to RMB 8.78 billion [3]. Commercial Operations - The company reported a commercial operating income of RMB 3.54 billion, with a rental rate of 96.2% for shopping centers and 78.3% for office buildings. The first REIT has been accepted for review, marking a significant milestone in asset management capabilities [4].

Group 1: Company Research - China Overseas Development - In H1 2025, the company achieved contract sales of approximately CNY 120.15 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 19.0%, ranking second in the industry[5] - The average selling price increased by 1% to CNY 23,500 per square meter, with a market share of 2.72%[5] - The company acquired land worth CNY 40.37 billion, with 86% of new land in first-tier and strong second-tier cities, leading the industry in land acquisition[6] - Revenue decreased by 4.3% to CNY 83.22 billion, with a gross margin of 17.4%, down 4.7 percentage points year-on-year[7] - The target price is set at HKD 19.35, with a buy rating, reflecting a potential upside of 35.4% from the current stock price of HKD 14.30[11] Group 2: Company Research - NetDragon - In H1 2025, NetDragon's revenue was CNY 2.38 billion, down 28% year-on-year, with a gross profit of CNY 1.7 billion, a decrease of 24.7%[17] - The gaming business generated revenue of CNY 1.74 billion, down 18% year-on-year, but showed signs of stabilization with a 11% increase in MAU for "Magic Domain"[18] - The company announced an interim dividend of HKD 0.5 per share and plans to return at least HKD 600 million to shareholders through dividends and buybacks over the next year[17] - The target price is adjusted to HKD 20.24, maintaining a buy rating, indicating a potential upside of 71% from the last closing price of HKD 11.14[20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $48.4, representing a potential upside of 21.5% from the current stock price of $39.8 [6][7]. Core Insights - The company has shown strong growth in retail performance, with a revenue guidance increase for the full year from 50% to 60%, leading to an overall revenue guidance adjustment from 25-30% to 30% [5][6]. - The hotel business is experiencing sequential improvement, and the retail business continues to outperform expectations, contributing to a second growth curve for the company [6]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY25Q2, total revenue reached 2.469 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 29.69%. The breakdown includes rental store revenue of 150 million RMB (down 17.0%), franchise store revenue of 1.299 billion RMB (up 23.5%), and retail business revenue of 965 million RMB (up 79.8%) [3][5]. - The GAAP net profit for Q2 was 425 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, with a net profit margin of 17.2%. The Non-GAAP net profit was 427 million RMB, up 30.2%, with a Non-GAAP net profit margin of 17.3% [3][5]. - The company reported a GMV of 1.144 billion RMB for Q2 in its retail business, reflecting an 84.6% year-on-year increase, with online channel revenue exceeding 90% and a gross margin growth to 53.3% [5][6]. Store Expansion and Brand Development - As of the end of Q2, the total number of stores was 1,824, with 118 new openings and 20 closures, maintaining a rapid expansion pace. The company has a record high of 816 reserve stores, indicating strong interest from franchisees [4][5]. - The company has successfully launched over 30 Atour 4.0 hotels and opened its flagship hotel in Shenzhen, achieving a RevPAR exceeding 800 RMB in its first month [4]. Membership Growth and Hotel Performance - The overall occupancy rate (OCC) for the hotel business was 76.4%, with an average daily rate (ADR) of 433 RMB and a revenue per available room (RevPAR) of 343 RMB, showing a narrowing decline compared to previous quarters [5]. - The number of registered members reached 10.26 million, a year-on-year increase of 34.7%, with corporate agreement sales accounting for 20.0% of total sales nights [5].

Group 1: Company Research - China Resources Land (1109) achieved a revenue of HKD 949 billion in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.9%[5] - The overall gross margin improved to 24.0%, up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, with the development business gross margin rising 3.2 percentage points to 15.6%[5] - The company maintained a buy rating with a target price of HKD 39.20, representing a potential upside of 21.7%[9] Group 2: Financial Performance - China Power (2380) reported a total revenue of RMB 238.6 billion in H1 2025, a decrease of 9.9% year-on-year, while EBITDA increased by 5.6% to RMB 155 billion[12] - The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was RMB 25.9 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.7%[12] - The company maintained a buy rating with a target price of HKD 4.73, indicating a potential upside of 37%[16] Group 3: Retail and Hotel Sector - Atour Hotel (ATAT) reported a total revenue of RMB 2.469 billion in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 29.69%[19] - The retail business revenue reached RMB 9.65 billion, up 79.8% year-on-year, leading to an upward revision of the annual revenue guidance from 50% to 60%[24] - The company maintained a buy rating with a target price of USD 48.40, representing a potential upside of 21.5%[25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 4.73, representing a potential upside of 37% from the current price of HKD 3.46 [5][7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to enhance its earnings stability through the integration of hydropower assets, which will significantly boost profits. The restructuring will position the company as a comprehensive clean energy flagship platform while focusing on green energy transformation [3][7]. - Despite short-term fluctuations in hydropower water levels and market electricity prices, the diversified generation portfolio is anticipated to lead to improved earnings certainty in the future [7]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, the company reported revenue of HKD 44.26 billion, with a projected increase to HKD 54.21 billion in 2024, followed by a slight decline to HKD 50.56 billion in 2025 [4][8]. - The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is expected to grow from HKD 2.66 billion in 2023 to HKD 3.36 billion in 2024, reaching HKD 3.85 billion in 2025 [4][8]. - The company’s EBITDA margin is projected to improve from 45.1% in 2024 to 55.6% by 2027, indicating strong operational efficiency [8]. Operational Performance - The company’s total installed capacity reached 53.9 GW as of the first half of 2025, marking an 11.6% year-on-year increase, with clean energy accounting for 81.8% of the total capacity [7]. - The average fuel cost decreased by 14.4% year-on-year, contributing to positive profit growth despite a decline in coal and hydropower sales volumes [7]. Market Position - The company is positioned to benefit from the high valuation and liquidity of the market, particularly through the integration of its core hydropower assets into a dedicated platform [7]. - The company’s dividend payout ratio has remained stable at around 60%, with expectations for further increases in earnings and dividends following the completion of asset integration [7].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Tencent Holdings [2] Core Insights - Tencent is restarting its offshore financing channels by issuing approximately 8 billion RMB in "dim sum bonds," marking its first bond issuance since 2021. This financing aims to optimize its debt structure and support long-term investments in AI and cloud computing [3] - The Tencent Global Digital Ecosystem Conference highlighted significant advancements in AI technology, showcasing improvements in modeling precision and user growth in AI applications. Tencent is transforming AI from a conceptual technology into a quantifiable productivity tool [4] - Tencent Cloud has doubled its overseas customer base in the past year, expanding its global infrastructure and local services to support Chinese enterprises going abroad. This includes the establishment of new data centers in the Middle East and Japan [5] - Tencent Cloud has fully adapted to mainstream domestic chips and is actively participating in open-source community development, enhancing AI technology accessibility and affordability for clients [6] Summary by Sections Financing and Debt Management - Tencent plans to issue 80 billion RMB in "dim sum bonds" to optimize its debt structure and fund long-term investments in AI and cloud computing. The bonds will have maturities of 5, 10, and 30 years with initial interest rates of 2.6%, 3.0%, and 3.6% respectively [3] AI Technology and Applications - The Tencent Global Digital Ecosystem Conference showcased AI breakthroughs, including a threefold increase in modeling precision and a 150% growth in AI meeting minutes users. Tencent's AI capabilities are being integrated into various sectors, enhancing productivity [4] Global Expansion and Services - Tencent Cloud's overseas customer base has doubled, with services now covering over 80 countries. The company is expanding its global infrastructure, including new data centers, to support Chinese enterprises in international markets [5] Chip Adaptation and AI Infrastructure - Tencent Cloud has adapted to mainstream domestic chips and is focused on creating a unified computing power pool through its self-developed heterogeneous computing platform. This strategy aims to lower costs and enhance compatibility during the domestic chip replacement process [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings (700.HK) with a target price of 800 HKD, reflecting confidence in the company's growth potential and market position [19]. Core Insights - Tencent is restarting its offshore financing channels by issuing approximately 8 billion RMB in "dim sum bonds," marking its first bond issuance since 2021. This move aims to optimize its debt structure and support long-term investments in AI and cloud computing [4]. - The 2025 Tencent Global Digital Ecosystem Conference highlighted significant advancements in AI technology, showcasing improvements in modeling accuracy and the integration of AI capabilities across various applications, including customer service and enterprise solutions [5][7]. - Tencent Cloud has doubled its overseas customer base over the past year, expanding its global infrastructure and local services to support Chinese enterprises going abroad [6]. - The company has fully adapted to mainstream domestic chips, enhancing its AI computing capabilities and addressing the industry's need for cost-effective and reliable computing power [12]. Summary by Sections Company Review - Tencent is issuing 80 billion RMB in "dim sum bonds" to optimize its debt structure and fund long-term investments in AI and cloud computing [4]. - The company has a current outstanding bond size of approximately 17.7 billion USD, with over 1.5 billion USD maturing in the next two years [4]. AI Technology - The conference showcased Tencent's AI advancements, including a threefold increase in modeling precision and significant user growth in AI-driven applications [5][12]. - Tencent's AI capabilities are being integrated into various sectors, including gaming and enterprise solutions, demonstrating a shift from technology concepts to quantifiable productivity tools [5][7]. Global Expansion - Tencent Cloud's overseas customer base has increased significantly, with new data centers established in Saudi Arabia and Japan, enhancing its global service capabilities [6]. - The company is leveraging its cross-border payment and localization services to support Chinese enterprises in international markets [6]. Chip Adaptation - Tencent Cloud has fully adapted to mainstream domestic chips, focusing on software optimization to ensure compatibility and performance across different chip types [12]. - This adaptation is seen as essential for the sustainable development of China's AI industry, moving from reliance on external hardware to a complete domestic ecosystem [12].

新力量 New Force 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com 总第 4860 期 2025 年 9 月 16 日 星期二 研究观点 【公司研究】 中国黄金国际 (2099，买入）：甲玛矿"三步走"规划奠定增长基石，盈利释放进入 快车道 【宏观经济评论】 第一上海——First Call 九月策略（二） 第一上海证券有限公司 www.mystockhk.com 评级变化 咨询热线：400-882-1055 服务邮箱：Service@firstshanghai.com 网址：www.mystockhk.com | 公司 | 代码 | 评级 | 目标价(港元） | | 2025年EPS(港元) | | | 2026年EPS(港元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 新 旧 新 | 旧 | 变动 | 新 | 旧 | 变动 | 新 | 旧 | 变动 | | 中国黄金国际 | 2099 | 买入 买入 167.07 | 100.00 | 67% | 0.940 ...

行业评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 2025 年 9 月 15 日 星期一 【行业评论】 黄晨 +852-2532 1954 chen.huang@firstshanghai.com.hk +852-2532 1962 mianlu.zhao@firstshanghai.com.hk 行业 TMT 科技行业周报：推理应用驱动算力投资，中美博弈持续利好国产半导体 核心观点： 我们强烈看好 AI 应用驱动的算力需求持续高增长，海内外 AI 应用进入普及的拐点 时刻。当前时点，我们提示投资者在标的上优中选优，关注业绩的持续兑现能力。 提示出货节奏、份额波动、资本开支变化等引发的短期波动风险。 通信能力持续升级机会： 上周，Oracle 发布业绩，其"剩余履约义务"（RPO）同比大增 359%，达 4,550 亿 美元，带动公司股价大涨。背后反映了 OpenAI、xAI、Meta 等 AI 行业巨头中长期 的旺盛需求。博通业绩会带动 XPU 热度上升，一方面其主要客户谷歌 TPU 需求上调， 另一方面 CEO 陈福阳透露其定制化芯片业务出现第四家大客户，该客户承诺了价 ...

Company Review - The report on Chaoyun Group (1760, not rated) highlights a doubling growth in its pet business and a consistent high dividend payout to shareholders [6][7] - The company reported a revenue of 1.339 billion HKD for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.2% [6] - The gross profit reached 660 million HKD, with a year-on-year increase of 14.0% [6] - The pre-tax profit was 232 million HKD, up by 5.3% year-on-year [6] - The interim dividend declared was 0.0521 HKD per share, maintaining a stable payout ratio of 40.0% [6] Industry Review - The technology industry report emphasizes strong growth in AI application-driven computing power demand, marking a pivotal moment for AI application proliferation both domestically and internationally [11][15] - The report suggests investors focus on high-quality targets and monitor the sustainability of performance [11] - The domestic computing power supply chain is expected to improve as bottlenecks in advanced process capacity and packaging are gradually addressed [15] - The report indicates a significant increase in demand for AI-related hardware, with companies like Cambricon (688256) and SMIC (0981.HK) highlighted as investment opportunities [16][22] - NAND storage prices are expected to rise, with SanDisk announcing a 10% price increase for NAND Flash modules [17][23]