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Coinbase Global Inc-A:高增长驱动业绩超预期,监管与市场波动仍是关键挑战-20250320
First Shanghai Securities· 2025-03-20 06:48
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Coinbase Global with a target price of $245.00, representing a potential upside of 29.12% from the current price of $189.75 [3][19]. Core Insights - Coinbase experienced significant revenue growth in Q4 2024, with total revenue reaching $2.272 billion, exceeding market expectations by 22%. This growth was driven by a substantial increase in trading volume and stable fee performance [5][19]. - The total trading volume increased by 137% quarter-over-quarter, with retail trading volume rising by 176%. Non-BTC/ETH asset trading volume surged by 245%, contributing to market share expansion [5][19]. - Adjusted EBITDA reached $1.289 billion, with a profit margin of 56.82%, and adjusted EPS was $4.67, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 144% [5][19]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the fiscal years ending December 31st are as follows: - 2023: $3.108 billion - 2024: $6.564 billion - 2025E: $8.079 billion - 2026E: $8.286 billion - 2027E: $8.780 billion - Year-over-year growth rates are projected at: - 2023: -2.69% - 2024: 111.17% - 2025E: 23.08% - 2026E: 2.57% - 2027E: 5.95% [4][21]. Q1 2025 Guidance - Management provided guidance for Q1 2025, estimating subscription and service revenue between $685 million and $765 million. Total expenses for T&D and G&A are expected to be between $750 million and $800 million, while S&M expenses are projected at $235 million to $375 million [18][19]. - As of February 11, 2025, the company reported approximately $750 million in trading revenue [18]. Market Context - The report highlights that Coinbase's revenue is highly dependent on cryptocurrency price fluctuations, and potential market corrections could impact both trading volume and fees. Increased competition and regulatory uncertainties in the U.S. are also noted as potential challenges [19][5].
华润啤酒:业绩筑底完成,静待消费复苏弹性释放-20250320
First Shanghai Securities· 2025-03-20 06:48
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 34.19, representing a potential upside of 20% from the current price of HKD 28.5 [4][5]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong operational resilience during the industry adjustment period, achieving a total revenue of RMB 38.635 billion in 2024, a slight decline of 0.8% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 8.0% to RMB 4.739 billion [5][6]. - The company is focusing on premiumization in its beer segment, with high-end product sales growing over 9%, and the overall sales volume of beer reaching 10.87 billion liters, a decline of only 2.5%, which is significantly better than major competitors [5][6]. - The company plans to leverage the recovery in the dining scene and expand into overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, to drive future growth [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profitability: - Revenue for 2023 was RMB 38.932 billion, with a projected increase to RMB 39.751 billion in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 2.9% [3][6]. - Net profit for 2023 was RMB 5.153 billion, expected to rise to RMB 5.374 billion in 2025, indicating a growth of 13.4% [3][6]. - The adjusted EBITDA for 2024 was RMB 6.34 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [5][6]. - Earnings Per Share and Dividends: - Basic earnings per share for 2023 was RMB 1.59, projected to increase to RMB 1.66 in 2025 [3][6]. - The dividend per share for 2024 is expected to be RMB 0.76, with a payout ratio of 52%, and the company aims to increase this to over 60% in the next three years [5][6]. - Cash Flow and Efficiency: - The net cash flow from operating activities surged by 67% year-on-year to RMB 6.93 billion, marking a five-year high [5][6]. - The company has improved its overall gross margin to 42.6%, up by 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [5][6]. Strategic Focus - The company is committed to a "three precision strategy" aimed at enhancing operational efficiency and competitiveness, which includes streamlining organization, optimizing costs, and refining operations [5][6]. - The focus on premiumization and product innovation is expected to solidify the company's leading position in the high-end market segment [5][6].
中国联通:AIDC强劲增长,派息比例稳步提升至60%-20250320
First Shanghai Securities· 2025-03-20 06:47
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 13, representing a potential upside of 38% from the current price of HKD 9.6 [4][7]. Core Insights - The company's revenue and profit performance are in line with expectations, with a steady increase in the dividend payout ratio to 60%. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of HKD 389.6 billion (+4.6% YoY) and a net profit of HKD 20.7 billion (+10.1% YoY) [3][7]. - The company is experiencing robust growth in its AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) orders, with a significant increase in its cloud and data center revenues driven by advancements in artificial intelligence [7]. - The capital expenditure structure is optimized, with a reduction in overall capital spending while maintaining growth in computing power investments [7]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Projections**: The company expects revenues to grow from HKD 372.6 billion in 2023 to HKD 389.6 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.6% over the next few years [3][12]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit is projected to increase from HKD 18.9 billion in 2023 to HKD 20.7 billion in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 10.1% [3][12]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is expected to rise from HKD 0.65 in 2023 to HKD 0.72 in 2024, indicating a growth of 11.8% [3][12]. - **Dividend Growth**: The company has consistently increased its dividend per share, with a projected dividend of HKD 0.43 for 2024, up 20.1% YoY, and a target payout ratio increasing to over 75% in the coming years [7][12]. - **Capital Expenditure**: The capital expenditure is forecasted to decrease from HKD 613.7 billion in 2024 to HKD 550 billion in 2025, while investments in computing power are expected to grow by 28% [7][12]. Market Position - The company holds a strong position in the telecommunications sector, with significant growth in its IoT (Internet of Things) connections and a leading position in the automotive IoT market [7]. - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on AI and cloud services, which are anticipated to drive future revenue growth [7].
特步国际:2024年全年利润增长20.2%,今年加大DTC业务的投入-20250320
First Shanghai Securities· 2025-03-20 06:47
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 7.03, representing a potential upside of 23.5% from the current stock price of HKD 5.69 [2][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 20.2% in 2024, driven by increased investment in Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) business [2][6]. - The main brand, Xtep, showed stable growth with a revenue increase of 3.2% to RMB 12.3 billion, benefiting from strong online channel performance [6][7]. - The professional sports segment experienced significant growth of 57.2%, with revenue reaching RMB 1.25 billion, supported by the acquisition of Saucony and Merrell [6][7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: RMB 12,743 million in 2023, RMB 13,577 million in 2024, RMB 14,940 million in 2025, RMB 16,410 million in 2026, and RMB 17,962 million in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 10.5%, 6.5%, 10.0%, 9.8%, and 9.5% respectively [3][7]. - Operating profit is forecasted to grow from RMB 1,798 million in 2023 to RMB 2,587 million in 2027, with a notable increase of 91.9% in 2023 [3][7]. - Net profit is expected to rise from RMB 1,030 million in 2023 to RMB 1,732 million in 2027, with a growth of 161.3% in 2023 and 20.2% in 2024 [3][7]. - The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with net cash of RMB 980 million and a dividend payout ratio of 50% [6][7]. Market Position and Strategy - The company plans to continue focusing on the running segment, aiming to solidify its position as the leading running brand in China [6][7]. - The strategy includes enhancing operational efficiency by reclaiming distribution rights for approximately 400-500 stores and directly operating flagship stores to improve customer experience [6][7]. - The company anticipates capital expenditures of RMB 500 million for 2025-2026 to support growth initiatives [6][7].
海天国际:全球经济复苏分化下的稳健增长-20250320
First Shanghai Securities· 2025-03-19 23:36
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 30.00, representing a potential upside of 29% from the current price of HKD 23.25 [3]. Core Insights - The company has achieved a record high in performance, with total revenue reaching RMB 16.128 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 23.4%. The gross margin slightly improved to 32.5%, and net profit rose by 23.6% to RMB 3.08 billion [5]. - The main product lines, particularly the Mars series, saw significant sales growth, with units sold increasing by 37.5% to 47,527 units and revenue rising by 31.2% to RMB 10.47 billion. The company is also benefiting from a recovery in consumer demand and has maintained stable gross margins due to lower raw material costs [5]. - The domestic market revenue surged by 27.7% to RMB 10.11 billion, driven by demand from daily consumer goods and the automotive sector. The overseas market also experienced stable growth, with revenue increasing by 16.8% to RMB 6.02 billion [5]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are set at RMB 17.918 billion for 2025, with a growth rate of 11.1% year-on-year. The net profit is expected to reach RMB 3.374 billion, reflecting a 9.5% increase [2][14]. - The company maintains a strong balance sheet with net cash of RMB 4.12 billion at year-end, and plans to distribute a dividend of HKD 0.73 per share [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to grow from RMB 1.93 in 2024 to RMB 2.11 in 2025, indicating a year-on-year growth of 9.5% [2][14].
腾讯控股:腾讯2024业绩前瞻-20250318
First Shanghai Securities· 2025-03-18 08:49
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to report a revenue of 168.9 billion RMB for Q4 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, and an annual revenue of 656.5 billion RMB, reflecting a 7.8% increase [2] - The core business's Non-GAAP net profit is projected to reach 54.1 billion RMB in Q4, up 26.7% year-on-year, and 220.6 billion RMB for the full year, marking a 39.9% increase [2] - The gaming segment is anticipated to see continued revenue growth due to the implementation of evergreen game strategies and the introduction of new titles [3] - Marketing services revenue is expected to rise significantly, driven by the growth of video accounts and the optimization of the WeChat e-commerce ecosystem [4] - The cloud business aims for operational efficiency while reducing costs, with a focus on high-quality growth and an expected balance between revenue and expenses [5] Revenue Forecast - Q4 revenue forecast: 168.9 billion RMB, up 8.8% YoY [2] - Full-year revenue forecast: 656.5 billion RMB, up 7.8% YoY [2] - Value-added services revenue for Q4: 77.1 billion RMB, up 11.6% YoY; full-year: 317.2 billion RMB, up 6.3% YoY [2] - Marketing services revenue for Q4: 33.8 billion RMB, up 13.6% YoY; full-year: 120.2 billion RMB, up 18.46% YoY [2] - Cloud and financial services revenue for Q4: 55.9 billion RMB, up 2.7% YoY; full-year: 211.7 billion RMB, up 3.9% YoY [2] Gaming Segment Insights - The number of evergreen games is expected to increase from 8 to 10, contributing to sustained revenue growth [3] - Key titles like "Honor of Kings" and "PUBG MOBILE" continue to lead in revenue generation [3] - The overseas business is showing robust growth, with overseas revenue expected to approach half of total revenue [3] Marketing Services Insights - Video account advertising is becoming a significant revenue source, second only to Moments ads [4] - The integration of WeChat mini-stores and video accounts is expected to enhance social e-commerce traffic [4] - AI technology is anticipated to improve advertising precision and increase ROI for advertisers [4] Cloud Business Insights - The cloud segment is focusing on achieving operational balance while enhancing AI-related services [5] - The commercialization of SaaS tools like Tencent Meeting is expected to accelerate growth [5] - Overall revenue improvement is anticipated, with cost reduction efforts continuing [5]
特斯拉:周报-20250318
First Shanghai Securities· 2025-03-18 05:55
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Tesla (TSLA) [2]. Core Insights - Tesla claims it will be a victim of the U.S. government's tariff strategy, which may lead to increased electric vehicle prices due to rising costs and supply chain constraints [3]. - Tesla is collaborating with Baidu to enhance its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software by integrating Baidu's navigation map information [4]. - Initial details of Tesla's "affordable model" indicate it will be produced at the Shanghai Gigafactory, based on the Model Y but at a lower production cost, expected to be at least 20% cheaper than the new Model Y [5]. - Tesla has officially stopped accepting new orders for the old Model Y, which is now only available through existing inventory [6]. - In February, Tesla's wholesale deliveries in China were estimated at 30,000 vehicles, a decrease of approximately 53% month-over-month and 50% year-over-year [7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Tesla's stock price is reported at $249.98, with a market capitalization of $804.1 billion and a total share count of 3.217 billion shares [8]. Delivery Data - For the week of March 3 to March 9, 2025, Tesla's domestic insurance registrations were approximately 13,800 vehicles, reflecting a quarter-over-quarter decline of about 37% but a year-over-year increase of about 5% [11].
腾讯控股:周报-20250318
First Shanghai Securities· 2025-03-18 05:55
Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on Tencent Holdings with an expected revenue growth of 8.8% year-on-year for Q4 2024 and 7.8% for the entire year [4]. Core Insights - Tencent is anticipated to report a Q4 revenue of 168.9 billion RMB, with a full-year revenue forecast of 656.5 billion RMB, reflecting strong growth in value-added services and marketing services [4]. - The Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to reach 54.1 billion RMB in Q4, marking a 26.7% increase year-on-year, and 220.6 billion RMB for the full year, representing a 39.9% growth [5]. - The company is expected to benefit from cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with lower-than-expected sales and management expense ratios [5]. Revenue Breakdown - Value-added services are expected to generate 77.1 billion RMB in Q4, up 11.6% year-on-year, and 317.2 billion RMB for the full year, an increase of 6.3% [4]. - Marketing services are projected to grow by 13.6% year-on-year in Q4 to 33.8 billion RMB, with a full-year growth of 18.46% to 120.2 billion RMB [4]. - Cloud and financial services are expected to record 55.9 billion RMB in Q4, a 2.7% increase, and 211.7 billion RMB for the full year, up 3.9% [4]. AI and Product Development - Tencent's new feature in Tencent Yuanbao allows users to upload and export Tencent documents, enhancing productivity and collaboration [6]. - Tencent Games is set to showcase new products at the 2025 Game Developers Conference, including the highly anticipated multiplayer adventure game "Honor of Kings World," which could contribute 1 to 1.5 billion RMB monthly if successful [7].
昂跑:24年第四季度增长依然强劲,预计25年的销售额能最少增长27%-20250318
First Shanghai Securities· 2025-03-18 02:59
Investment Rating - The report assigns a strong buy rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [5][6]. Core Insights - The company, On Running (ONON), experienced a robust sales growth of 35.7% year-on-year in Q4 2024, reaching 606.6 million Swiss Francs, driven by increased global brand recognition [5]. - Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) sales surged by 43.4% to 296.2 million Swiss Francs, while wholesale business grew by 29.1% to 310.4 million Swiss Francs, benefiting from selective expansion with key clients [5]. - The company anticipates a sales growth of at least 27% for 2025, projecting total sales of 2.94 billion Swiss Francs [8]. Financial Overview - In FY 2024, total sales reached 2.318 billion Swiss Francs, marking a 29.4% increase, with DTC sales growing by 40.3% and wholesale by 22.8% [6]. - The gross margin improved by 1.0 percentage point to 60.6%, and net profit increased by 204.5% to 242.3 million Swiss Francs, with a net profit margin of 10.4% [6]. - The company reported a diluted earnings per share of 0.97 Swiss Francs for FY 2024 [6]. Regional Performance - EMEA market sales grew by 18.2% to 577.8 million Swiss Francs, the Americas by 27.4% to 1.480 billion Swiss Francs, and the Asia-Pacific market surged by 84.5% to 260.2 million Swiss Francs [6]. - The Asia-Pacific region showed particularly strong growth, indicating a significant opportunity for expansion [6]. Product Performance - Footwear sales increased by 28.5% to 2.199 billion Swiss Francs, with specific models like Cloudmonster, Cloudsurfer, and Cloudrunner recording growth rates between 60% and 140% [6]. - Apparel sales rose by 46.7% to 101 million Swiss Francs, while accessories saw a 49.5% increase to 17.7 million Swiss Francs [6]. Future Outlook - For 2025, the company expects a gross margin around 60.5% and an EBITDA margin between 17.0% and 17.5% [8]. - The company plans to expand its production capacity in Zurich and build a larger facility in South Korea, aiming to enhance operational efficiency [7]. - The number of stores in China is projected to increase from 58 to 80, with a target market share of 10% by 2026 [7].
Legend Biotech Corp ADR:历史爬坡最快的Car-T疗法,25年继续销售放量-20250317
First Shanghai Securities· 2025-03-17 07:04
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $56.0, indicating a potential upside of 47.2% from the current stock price of $38.05 [4][3]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing rapid growth in its CAR-T therapy, CARVYKTI, with a projected revenue increase of 93% in 2024, reaching $963 million. The total revenue for the company is expected to grow significantly, with estimates of $1.07 billion, $1.70 billion, and $2.35 billion for the years 2025 to 2027 respectively [1][3][5]. - The company is expanding its production capacity, with new facilities in New Jersey and Belgium, and plans to reach an annual production of 10,000 doses by the end of 2025, increasing to 20,000 doses by 2027 [2]. - CARVYKTI is the first CAR-T therapy to demonstrate improved overall survival compared to standard treatment in multiple myeloma, with label updates expected in Europe and the U.S. in 2025 [3]. Financial Summary - The company reported a total revenue of $285 million for 2023, with projections of $627 million for 2024 and $1.068 billion for 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 143.7% and 70.2% respectively [5][6]. - The net profit is expected to improve from a loss of $518 million in 2023 to a profit of $392 million by 2027, indicating a significant turnaround in profitability [5][6]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 49% in 2023 to 60% by 2027, while the SG&A expense ratio is expected to decrease from 70% to 23% over the same period [6].