Group 1: Company Research - The company, CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093), is rated as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 10.03, representing a potential upside of 31.3% from the current price of HKD 7.64[5][6]. - The market capitalization of CSPC Pharmaceutical Group is HKD 880.32 billion, with 11.522 billion shares issued[5]. - The adjusted net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 decreased by 15.2%, with revenue at HKD 19.89 billion, down 12.3% year-on-year[6]. Group 2: Financial Performance - The gross profit margin for the company is 65.6%, with a decrease in sales and administrative expense ratios by 4.4 and 0.8 percentage points to 31.1% and 3.1%, respectively[6]. - R&D expenses as a percentage of revenue increased by 6.3 percentage points to 27.1%[6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 3.51 billion, down 7.1%, with a net profit margin of 15.5%, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points[6]. Group 3: Segment Performance - The revenue from the finished drug segment was HKD 15.45 billion, down 17.2%, with a 25.5% decline in drug revenue to HKD 13.91 billion[6][7]. - The raw material drug segment saw revenue of HKD 1.79 billion, up 22.3%, while the functional food segment reported revenue of HKD 1.43 billion, up 11.2%[6][7]. - The profit margin for the finished drug segment was 20.9%, down 1.8 percentage points, while the vitamin C segment's profit margin increased by 3.6 percentage points to 11.0%[6][7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company plans to maintain dividends in the second half of the year at least at the same level as the first half, which was HKD 0.14 per share[6]. - The target market value for CSPC Pharmaceutical Group is estimated at HKD 116.5 billion, with a corresponding price-to-earnings ratio of 25.2 times for 2025 and 29.4 times for 2026[9].

亚马逊（AMZN） 更新报告 买入 2025 年 12 月 4 日 唐伊莲 852-25321539 alice.tang@firstshanghai.com.hk 李倩 852-25321539 chuck.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 第一上海证券有限公司 2025 年 12 月 图表 1：主营收入（按业务类型） 图表 2：主营收入占比（按类型） 图表 3：主营收入占比（按地区） 主要数据 | 行业 | 电商/云计算 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 股价 | 233.00 美元 | | | 目标价 | 303.50 美元 | | | | （+30%） | | | 股票代码 | AMZN US | | | 总股数 | 107 亿股 | | | 市值 | 2.5 万亿美元 | | | 52 周高/低 | 259/161 美元 | | | 每股账面值 | 34.59 美元 | | | 主要股东 | Jeff Bezos | 8.25% | | | Vanguard | 7.95% | | | Blackrock | 6.75% | | 盈利摘要 | | | | | | 股价 ...

新力量 New Force 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com 第一上海证券有限公司 香港中环德辅道中 71 号永安集团大厦 19 楼 咨询热线：400-882-1055 服务邮箱：Service@firstshanghai.com 网址：www.mystockhk.com 总第 4917 期 2025 年 12 月 4 日 星期四 研究观点 【公司评论】 亚马逊（AMZN，买入）：AI 驱动云计算和电商业务双引擎 Meta Platforms（META，买入）：持续优化 AI 算法推动增长飞轮，资本开支增 速将显著提升 寒武纪-U(688256，买入）：推理应用加速落地，算力缺口亟待缓解 速腾聚创（2498，买入）:ADAS 业务收入承压，机器人业务需求强劲 评级变化 | 公司 | 代码 | 评级 | | 目标价(港元） | | | 2025年EPS(港元) | | | 2026年EPS(港元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 新 旧 | ...

Group 1: Kuaishou Financial Performance - Kuaishou's Q3 2025 revenue reached 35.554 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%[9] - Gross profit for Q3 2025 was 19.434 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 54.7%, up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year[9] - Adjusted profit for Q3 2025 was 4.986 billion RMB, exceeding consensus expectations by 3.1%[9] Group 2: E-commerce and AI Growth - Kuaishou's e-commerce GMV grew by 15.2% year-on-year to 385 billion RMB in Q3 2025[11] - The AI business, Keling AI, generated over 300 million RMB in revenue in Q3 2025, contributing to marketing material consumption exceeding 3 billion RMB[12] - Kuaishou's cash reserves stood at 12.9 billion RMB, with total cash exceeding 106.6 billion RMB, indicating strong liquidity[9] Group 3: Stock Ratings and Price Targets - Kuaishou's target price is set at 82.4 HKD, maintaining a "Buy" rating, reflecting an 18 times PE valuation for 2025[13] - Ideal Auto's target price is 20.69 USD (87.85 HKD), with a "Buy" rating, indicating a potential upside of 15%[22] - Apple's target price is raised to 330.00 USD, suggesting a 15.31% upside from the current price[29] Group 4: Market Trends and Risks - The report highlights risks including macroeconomic downturns, intensified competition in short videos, and overseas business performance not meeting expectations[14] - The high-dividend stock investment strategy is gaining traction amid market volatility, with a focus on cyclical high-dividend stocks benefiting from policy expectations[46]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating with a target price of $330.00, indicating a potential upside of 15.19% from the current price of $286.19 [3][31]. Core Insights - The report highlights that iPhone 17 sales have reached a record high, and the service business continues to show strong growth, with service revenue increasing by 15.1% year-over-year [5][23]. - The company is expected to experience a robust product cycle over the next three years, driven by effective user upgrade demand, with a projected revenue CAGR of 7.0% and an EPS CAGR of 10.9% [5][31]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending September 28, 2024, total revenue is projected to be $391.035 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 2.02% [4]. - Net profit for FY2024 is estimated at $93.736 billion, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $6.1, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.84% [4]. - The company reported total revenue of $102.47 billion for the latest quarter, a 7.9% increase year-over-year, surpassing Bloomberg consensus estimates [5][7]. - Gross profit for the quarter was $48.34 billion, with a gross margin of 47.2%, exceeding expectations [5][7]. Product Performance - iPhone revenue for the latest quarter was $49.03 billion, showing a year-over-year increase of 6.1%, with an average selling price (ASP) of $837 [16][20]. - The introduction of the iPhone 17 series has effectively stimulated user upgrade demand, with expectations of sales approaching 250 million units due to favorable product upgrades and low inventory levels [18][19]. Service Business Growth - Service revenue reached $28.75 billion, accounting for 28.1% of total revenue, with significant growth across various service segments [5][23]. - The company is experiencing a surge in customer engagement, with the number of paid accounts reaching historical highs [23]. Regional Performance - Revenue from the Americas, Greater China, Europe, Japan, and other Asia-Pacific regions for the latest quarter was $44.2 billion, $14.5 billion, $28.7 billion, $6.6 billion, and $8.4 billion, respectively [9][14]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a revenue growth of approximately 10%-12% for FY26Q1, with iPhone revenue expected to achieve double-digit growth [8]. - The gross margin for the next quarter is projected to be between 47%-48%, with a manageable impact from tariffs due to a reduction in Chinese tariffs [8].

Revenue Growth - Total revenue increased by 30% year-on-year to $1.756 billion[7] - Revenue growth in Greater China reached 47%, while Asia-Pacific saw a 54% increase[7] - Functional apparel revenue grew by 31% to $683 million, and outdoor sports revenue increased by 36% to $724 million[7] Store Expansion - Total store count increased by 85 to 631, with a year-on-year increase of 178 stores[7] - Same-store sales growth for functional apparel improved from 15% to 27%[5] Profitability Metrics - Gross margin improved by 1.6 percentage points to 56.8%[7] - Operating profit margin was reported at 12.3%, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 15.7%[7] Strategic Outlook - The company expects full-year revenue growth of 23-24% and a gross margin of 58.0%[8] - Projected earnings per share for 2025 is between $0.88 and $0.92[8] Valuation and Rating - Target price set at $43.80, representing a 20% upside from the current stock price of $36.60[9] - The stock is rated as "Buy" based on a 27x price-to-earnings ratio[9] Risks - Increased competition in the mature outdoor market in Europe and the U.S. poses a risk to performance[10] - High dependency on single brands and markets could impact stability[10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Sands China (1928) with a target price of HKD 25.11, reflecting a potential upside of 27.9% from the current price [2][8]. Core Insights - Sands China's new promotional strategies are beginning to show results, with expectations for continued market share and EBITDA growth [5][7]. - The company reported a net revenue of USD 1.9 billion for Q3 2025, recovering to 90% of 2019 levels, with a year-on-year growth of 7.3% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 6.1% [5]. - The adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 increased by 2.7% year-on-year and 6.2% quarter-on-quarter to USD 600 million, recovering to 80% of 2019 levels [5][7]. Summary by Sections Company Research - Sands China (1928) is rated "Buy" with a target price of HKD 25.11, reflecting a 12x EV/EBITDA for 2025 [2][8]. - The company’s market share in the gaming sector has rebounded to 25.4%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.4% [5][7]. Financial Performance - Q3 2025 net profit increased by 1.5% year-on-year and 27.1% quarter-on-quarter to USD 270 million [5]. - The company holds approximately USD 1.13 billion in cash, with net debt reduced by USD 150 million to USD 5.79 billion [5][7]. Market Dynamics - The VIP segment saw a year-on-year decline of 16.3%, while the mass market segment grew by 12.1% year-on-year, indicating a shift in customer preferences [5][6]. - The company is benefiting from the full service of the Londoner project and new promotional strategies, which are expected to enhance market share and EBITDA further [7][8]. Other Key Points - The report highlights the importance of the new strategies and the expected growth in EBITDA to reach USD 2.7-2.8 billion in the short term [7]. - Sands China has repurchased USD 340 million worth of shares, increasing its ownership stake to 74.76% [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Sands China (1928) with a target price of HKD 25.11, representing a potential upside of 27.9% from the current price of HKD 19.63 [3][5]. Core Insights - The new promotional strategies are beginning to show results, with expectations for continued market share and EBITDA growth. The company is projected to achieve EBITDA of USD 2.7 to 2.8 billion in the short term [5][6]. - The third quarter of 2025 saw net income increase by 7.3% year-on-year and 6.1% quarter-on-quarter, reaching USD 1.9 billion, recovering to 90% of 2019 levels [5]. - The company holds approximately USD 1.13 billion in cash, with net debt reduced to USD 5.79 billion [5]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023: USD 6,534 million - 2024: USD 7,080 million (8.4% increase) - 2025: USD 7,356 million (3.9% increase) - 2026: USD 8,010 million (8.9% increase) - 2027: USD 8,476 million (5.8% increase) [4][6] - **EBITDA Forecast**: - 2023: USD 2,225 million - 2024: USD 2,329 million (4.7% increase) - 2025: USD 2,321 million (-0.4% decrease) - 2026: USD 2,595 million (11.8% increase) - 2027: USD 2,793 million (7.6% increase) [4][6] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023: USD 692 million - 2024: USD 1,045 million (51.0% increase) - 2025: USD 1,004 million (-4.0% decrease) - 2026: USD 1,303 million (29.8% increase) - 2027: USD 1,432 million (9.9% increase) [4][6] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023: 15.86 cents - 2024: 19.99 cents - 2025: 12.40 cents - 2026: 16.09 cents - 2027: 17.69 cents [4][6] - **Dividend Per Share**: - 2024: 3.2 cents - 2025: 3.7 cents - 2026: 4.8 cents - 2027: 5.3 cents [4][6] Market Performance - The company has regained market share in the mid-market and gaming machine segments, reaching 25.4%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.4% [5]. - The performance of various casinos includes: - Venetian Macao: USD 692 million - Londoner: USD 686 million - Parisian: USD 218 million - Four Seasons: USD 206 million - Sands Macao: USD 72 million [5].

Group 1: Pinduoduo (PDD) Analysis - Pinduoduo's Q3 revenue reached RMB 108.276 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9%, aligning with market expectations[8] - Online marketing services revenue was RMB 53.348 billion, up 8% YoY, while transaction services revenue was RMB 54.929 billion, up 10% YoY, indicating a deepening commercial model[8] - The company maintained a net profit of RMB 29.328 billion, a 17% increase YoY, with a net profit margin of 27.1%[8] - Target price for Pinduoduo is set at USD 148.90, reflecting a 31% upside potential from the current price of USD 113.24[11] Group 2: Xiaomi Group (1810) Analysis - Xiaomi's Q3 smartphone revenue was RMB 45.97 billion, a decline of 3.1% YoY, with global smartphone shipments at 43.3 million units, a 0.5% increase YoY[16] - The automotive business achieved revenue of RMB 29.01 billion, with a gross margin of 25.5%, marking the first quarterly profit of RMB 700 million[18] - Xiaomi's IoT revenue increased by 5.6% YoY to RMB 27.6 billion, with a gross margin of 23.9%[17] - Target price for Xiaomi is set at HKD 50.20, indicating a potential upside of 31.83% from the current price of HKD 38.08[22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 50.06, representing a potential upside of 30.36% from the current stock price of HKD 38.40 [3]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 2025 performance met expectations, with net revenue increasing by 14.0% year-on-year and 1.0% quarter-on-quarter, reaching HKD 12.16 billion, recovering to 95.7% of the same period in 2019 [3]. - The VIP gaming table turnover increased by 46.28% year-on-year and 16.6% quarter-on-quarter, while mass gaming revenue grew by 12.8% year-on-year and 7.4% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The adjusted EBITDA for the group grew by 13.6% year-on-year but decreased by 6.4% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 3.34 billion, recovering to 81.3% of the same period in 2019 [3]. - The company holds a strong balance sheet with net cash of HKD 34.8 billion, the strongest in the industry [3]. Financial Summary - Total net revenue is projected to grow from HKD 35,683.6 million in 2023 to HKD 55,764.5 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.5% [2][4]. - EBITDA is expected to increase from HKD 9,955.0 million in 2023 to HKD 16,439.8 million in 2027, with an EBITDA margin improving from 27.9% to 29.5% over the same period [2][4]. - Net profit is forecasted to rise from HKD 6,828.0 million in 2023 to HKD 12,317.4 million in 2027, indicating a CAGR of 9.6% [2][4]. - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout, with dividends per share expected to increase from HKD 0.5 in 2023 to HKD 1.6 in 2027, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.3% by 2027 [2][4]. Operational Highlights - The performance of "Galaxy Macau™" and the StarWorld Hotel showed a net revenue increase of 20% and a decrease of 6% year-on-year, respectively, with hotel occupancy rates at 98% and 99% [3]. - The company is progressing with the construction of the fourth phase of "Galaxy Macau™," expected to be completed in 2027, which will introduce several high-end hotel brands and a theater with 5,000 seats [3]. - The company hosted approximately 260 entertainment, sports, arts, and cultural events from January to September 2025, leading to a 41% year-on-year increase in visitor traffic to "Galaxy Macau™" [3].