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新力量NewForce总第4898期
First Shanghai Securities· 2025-11-07 07:19
Group 1: Coinbase Global (COIN) - Q3 2025 total revenue reached $1.869 billion, up 55% year-over-year and 25% quarter-over-quarter[5] - Adjusted EPS was $1.44, exceeding expectations by 40%[5] - Subscription and service revenue increased to $747 million, contributing to a more balanced revenue structure[6] - Target price adjusted to $370.00, representing a 15.88% upside from the previous closing price[8] Group 2: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) - Q3 2025 revenue was $9.25 billion, a 35.6% increase year-over-year, slightly above Bloomberg consensus of $8.74 billion[14] - Non-GAAP net income reached $1.97 billion, a 30.7% increase year-over-year[14] - Target price set at $300.00, indicating a 17.04% potential upside from the current price[18] Group 3: China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was CNY 339.47 billion, a 0.81% increase year-over-year[21] - Net profit for the same period was CNY 28.53 billion, up 6.11% year-over-year[21] - Target price set at HKD 25.98, suggesting a 25.0% upside from the current price[26]
新力量NewForce总第4896期
First Shanghai Securities· 2025-11-05 08:14
Company Research: New Oriental (EDU) - Adjusted operating profit margin improved, with Q1 FY26 net revenue at $1.52 billion, up 6.1% year-on-year, slightly exceeding guidance of $1.46 to $1.51 billion[6] - Non-GAAP operating profit reached $336 million, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%, with a Non-GAAP operating profit margin of 22.0%, up 1.0 percentage points[6] - The company plans to return at least 50% of the previous fiscal year's net profit to shareholders, with a total shareholder return plan of $490 million, including $190 million in cash dividends and $300 million in share buybacks[9] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - For FY26Q2, net revenue is expected to be between $1.132 billion and $1.163 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 9% to 12%[8] - FY26 total net revenue is projected to be between $5.145 billion and $5.39 billion, indicating a growth of 5% to 10%[8] - Target price adjusted to $74.50, maintaining a "Buy" rating, based on a 25x PE for FY26E net profit[10] Company Research: China Shenhua (1088) - For the first three quarters of 2025, revenue was CNY 213.15 billion, down 16.6% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders at CNY 41.37 billion, a decrease of 13.8%[15] - Coal sales volume decreased by 8.4% to 316.5 million tons, with Q3 revenue at CNY 75.04 billion, down 13.1% year-on-year[16] - Despite challenges, the company maintained a strong cost control, with unit production costs down 3.1% year-on-year[16] Future Outlook and Valuation - Target price set at HKD 47.70, with a "Buy" rating, reflecting a potential upside of 15.1% from the current price[18] - Expected net profit for 2025-2027 is projected at CNY 58.8 billion, CNY 58.7 billion, and CNY 58.9 billion respectively[18] - The company is viewed as a "cash cow" with a generous dividend policy, providing a stable cash return to investors[18]
时代电气(03898):轨交业务平稳释放,看好反内卷政策下新兴业务发展
First Shanghai Securities· 2025-11-03 11:33
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 55.0, indicating a potential upside of 39% from the current price of HKD 39.62 [4][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a steady performance in the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue of RMB 18.83 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, and a net profit of RMB 2.72 billion, up 10.9% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit grew by 30.9% year-on-year to RMB 2.61 billion [2][3]. - The rail transit business showed stable growth, with maintenance services accounting for approximately 22% of rail transit revenue, reflecting a significant increase compared to the previous year. The company is expected to benefit from the growing demand for maintenance services in national rail and urban rail systems [3]. - The semiconductor factory reached full production capacity, generating significant revenue growth. The new energy generation division has started to operate independently and has achieved slight profitability, with plans for further business expansion in solar and energy storage sectors [3]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 27.83 billion, RMB 30.92 billion, and RMB 34.63 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 11.7%, 11.1%, and 12.0% [4][7]. - Net profits are expected to be RMB 4.10 billion, RMB 4.58 billion, and RMB 5.06 billion for the same years, with growth rates of 10.7%, 11.8%, and 10.4% [4][7]. - The report estimates a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 15 times for 2026, supporting the target price of HKD 55.0 [4].
新力量NewForce总第4893期
First Shanghai Securities· 2025-10-31 09:34
Group 1: China Ping An (2318) - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 132.856 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 11.5%[6] - The new business value (NBV) for life and health insurance grew significantly to 35.724 billion CNY, up 46.2% year-on-year[7] - The first-year premium income was 141.769 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.3%[7] - The operating profit for the first three quarters was 116.264 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%[6] - The target price is set at 92.7 HKD, representing a potential upside of 65% from the current price[11] Group 2: Pop Mart (9992) - The company reported a revenue growth of 245%-250% year-on-year for Q3 2025, exceeding expectations[17] - Domestic revenue increased by 185%-190%, while overseas revenue surged by 365%-370%[17] - The target price is set at 400.0 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 75.3% from the current price[25] Group 3: Alphabet (GOOGL) - Alphabet achieved a revenue of 102.3 billion USD in Q3 2025, a 16% increase year-on-year, marking its first quarter with over 100 billion USD in revenue[30] - The net profit for the quarter was 35 billion USD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33%[30] - The target price is raised to 350 USD, suggesting a potential upside of 27% from the current price[34]
腾讯控股(00700):新力量NewForce总第4891期
First Shanghai Securities· 2025-10-28 10:51
Group 1: Netflix (NFLX) - Investment Rating: Buy with a target price of 1,319.00 USD, representing a 20.5% upside from the current price of 1,094.69 USD [3][13] - Core Viewpoint: Short-term tax issues and industry consolidation do not alter the long-term growth logic of Netflix, as global users continue to shift towards streaming, with cable TV market share declining [8][9] - 2025 Q3 Performance Summary: Revenue grew 17% year-on-year to 11.51 billion USD, with a diluted EPS increase of 9% to 5.87 USD. Free cash flow rose 21% to 2.66 billion USD [11][12] Group 2: 伟仕佳杰 (856) - Investment Rating: Buy with a target price of 14.8 HKD, indicating a 47.6% upside from the current price of 10.03 HKD [4][18] - Core Viewpoint: The company is deeply engaged in the Asian ICT distribution market, with rapid growth in cloud and AI businesses, projecting a 28% increase in cloud revenue for 2024 [17][18] - Financial Performance: The company has maintained a consistent revenue growth rate of 24% since its listing, with a return on equity (ROE) above 10% for 23 consecutive years [20][22] Group 3: Uranium Industry - Core Viewpoint: The uranium sector is entering a new development cycle driven by increased demand, midstream capacity constraints, and a decrease in secondary supply [34][35] - Investment Opportunities: Companies like Cameco (CCJ) are well-positioned to benefit from the supply-demand imbalance, with a target price of 101 USD and a buy rating [37] - Market Dynamics: The nuclear energy sector contributes significantly to global electricity generation, with uranium demand expected to rise due to geopolitical factors and energy transition policies [35][36]
新力量NewForce总第4890期
First Shanghai Securities· 2025-10-27 11:18
Group 1: Company Research - Cameco (CCJ.US) is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of $101, indicating a potential upside of 20.9% from the current price of $83.5[7] - The company holds an 18% global market share in uranium production, with a 2023 average extraction cost of $26–32 per pound U3O8, which is competitive compared to other regions[5] - Expected revenues for Cameco are projected at RMB 348.9 billion, RMB 403.7 billion, and RMB 436.7 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of RMB 70.7 billion, RMB 111 billion, and RMB 133.5 billion[7] Group 2: Industry Commentary - Centrus Energy (LEU.US) is rated as a "Sell" with a target price of $231, reflecting a downside of 26.6% from the current price of $314.8[11] - The company is one of only two authorized to produce commercial low-enriched uranium (LEU), with a significant market opportunity due to U.S. policies reducing reliance on Russian uranium[11] - Oklo (OKLO.US) is also rated as a "Sell" with a target price of $92.5, indicating a potential downside of 23% from the current price of $120.1[17]
新力量NewForce总第6889期
First Shanghai Securities· 2025-10-24 10:19
Group 1: Zijin Mining (2899) - Q3 2025 revenue reached HKD 864.89 billion, up 8.14% year-on-year[7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2025 was HKD 145.72 billion, a 57.14% increase year-on-year[7] - For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue was HKD 2542 billion, up 10.33% year-on-year, with net profit at HKD 378.64 billion, a 55.45% increase[7] - Gold production for the first three quarters reached 65 tons, a 20% increase year-on-year[8] - Target price raised to HKD 43.29, maintaining a "Buy" rating, reflecting a 36% upside potential[10] Group 2: Meituan-W (3690) - Q2 2025 revenue was HKD 918.4 billion, up 11.7% year-on-year, slightly below market expectations[15] - Operating profit dropped to HKD 2.26 billion, down 98% year-on-year, with a margin of 0.2%[15] - Adjusted net profit for Q2 2025 was HKD 14.93 billion, down 89% year-on-year[15] - Target price reduced from HKD 230 to HKD 153, maintaining a "Buy" rating despite short-term profit pressures[18]
紫金矿业(02899):业绩超市场预期,金铜双轮驱动彰显强大韧性
First Shanghai Securities· 2025-10-24 10:06
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 43.29, representing a potential upside of 36% from the current price of HKD 31.76 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated strong resilience with performance exceeding market expectations, driven by both gold and copper production [5]. - The company has a diversified global mineral portfolio, effectively mitigating risks associated with price fluctuations of individual metals [5]. - The long-term growth strategy is clear, with ongoing expansions at major mines expected to support production growth in the coming years [5]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, the company reported revenues of CNY 293.4 billion, a 9% increase year-over-year, and a net profit of CNY 21.1 billion, reflecting a 5.4% growth [3][6]. - The forecast for 2025 predicts revenues of CNY 363.2 billion, a 20% increase, and net profit of CNY 53.1 billion, a significant 65.7% growth [3][6]. - The company achieved a third-quarter revenue of CNY 86.5 billion in 2025, an 8.14% year-over-year increase, with net profit reaching CNY 14.6 billion, up 57.14% [5]. Production and Operational Highlights - Gold production in the first three quarters of 2025 reached 65 tons, a 20% increase, primarily from projects in Ghana, Shanxi, Guizhou, and Serbia [5]. - Copper production for the same period was 830,000 tons, a 5.1% increase, despite a slight decline due to flooding at the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo [5]. - The company is set to enhance copper production by 150,000 to 200,000 tons with the completion of the tailings dam at the Jilong copper mine by the end of 2025 [5]. Financial Metrics - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to grow from CNY 0.80 in 2023 to CNY 2.00 in 2025, reflecting a 65.1% increase [3][6]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 40.9 in 2023 to 16.4 in 2025, indicating improved valuation as earnings grow [3][6]. - The dividend per share is forecasted to rise from CNY 0.26 in 2023 to CNY 0.64 in 2025, with a dividend yield increasing from 0.8% to 1.9% [3][6].
即时零售行业竞争趋稳,美团保持领跑
First Shanghai Securities· 2025-10-23 11:17
Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable competitive landscape in the instant retail industry, with Meituan maintaining its leading position [2]. Core Insights - The instant retail industry is experiencing a slowdown in growth, but competition is stabilizing, with expectations that quarterly losses may peak in Q3 [2]. - Meituan continues to lead the market with a share of 68% as of the second week of October, while Alibaba (Ele.me) holds 22% and JD.com remains stable at 10% [3]. - User growth is highlighted, with JD.com showing a remarkable weekly DAU growth of 35%, which is crucial for order volume increase [2][3]. Summary by Sections Instant Retail Industry - The competition in the instant retail sector is stabilizing, with Meituan leveraging its first-mover advantage [2]. - The cost of acquiring riders is normalizing, with a notable decrease in the overlap of 3P riders as of September [2]. - Meituan's delivery efficiency is particularly strong in lower-tier cities, while JD.com has achieved efficient fulfillment in certain areas, although its overall coverage needs improvement [2][3]. User Engagement - JD.com has the highest weekly DAU growth at 35%, while Alibaba's Taobao relies on its membership system for steady growth [2][3]. - Meituan has a large user base but needs to enhance user activity levels [2]. Competitive Strategies - Meituan focuses on quality competition and upgrading its 1P flash warehouses to strengthen branding [3]. - Alibaba is integrating resources to enhance collaboration between Tmall and offline merchants, while JD.com is deepening its supply chain advantages [3]. Market Performance - As of October 20, JD.com reported over 52,000 brands with transaction amounts increasing by over 300% year-on-year, with significant growth in consumer electronics and AI-related products [7]. - The global sales segment of JD.com is also experiencing rapid growth, with over 100% increase in transaction volume for various categories [7]. Cloud Services Expansion - Alibaba Cloud has launched its second data center in Dubai to meet the growing demand for cloud and AI services in the Middle East, expanding its global footprint to 29 regions and 92 availability zones [4][5]. Gaming Sector - Tencent's new game "Gray Realm Walker" has generated significant attention, showcasing its exploration in the global FPS market [6]. International Expansion - ByteDance's overseas app "Cici" has topped download charts in several countries, reflecting a strategic approach to leverage AI technology while minimizing geopolitical risks [8].
新力量NewForce总第6888期
First Shanghai Securities· 2025-10-23 10:48
Group 1: TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) - TSMC's revenue for Q3 2025 reached NT$989.92 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30.3%, equivalent to USD 33.1 billion, exceeding the company's guidance of USD 32.4 billion and Bloomberg's consensus of USD 31.5 billion[6] - The company's gross margin for Q3 2025 was 59.5%, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, with operating profit increasing by 38.8%[6] - TSMC's AI revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of over 45% over the next five years, driven by the migration of customers to advanced process nodes[7] Group 2: Ningde Times (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited) - Ningde Times reported Q3 2026 revenue of RMB 104.19 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.9%, with net profit rising by 41.21%[14] - The company's gross margin for Q3 2026 was maintained at around 28%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, supported by an increase in high-margin energy storage business[15] - Ningde Times aims to expand production capacity significantly, with plans for new facilities in multiple regions, including a projected 100 GWh increase in Shandong by 2026[17]