Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of the company [4]. Core Views - The company expects a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2024, estimated between CNY 101.135 billion and CNY 108.767 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 184.6% to 206% [2]. - The substantial growth in profit is primarily driven by a recovery in the stock market, which has led to a significant increase in investment income, nearly doubling the net profit compared to the same period last year [2]. - The company holds a considerable proportion of equity and fund assets, with 11.8% in public market equities, which has been positively impacted by the market's recovery [2]. - The report anticipates that the new business value growth will continue to expand, supported by a decline in the cost of liabilities and favorable policies [2]. Summary by Sections Profit Forecast - The company forecasts an EPS of CNY 3.96, CNY 4.08, and CNY 4.28 for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively [3][10]. - The expected growth rates for net profit attributable to shareholders are 142.08%, 3.13%, and 4.84% for the years 2024 to 2026 [3][10]. Valuation - The report assigns a PEV of 0.90X for A-shares and 0.30X for H-shares, with a corresponding fair value of CNY 46.25 per share for A-shares and HKD 16.84 per share for H-shares [10]. - The valuation reflects a recovery in the capital market and stable growth in value, which is expected to drive the company's valuation upward [10]. Business Performance - The company anticipates a total premium income growth of 2.3%, 5.8%, and 6.0% over the next three years, with individual insurance channels showing a positive trend [9]. - The report highlights that the investment performance is expected to improve significantly due to favorable market conditions and the company's strategic asset management [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 76.77 CNY per share, compared to the current price of 57.01 CNY [2]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2024 results with revenue of 3.561 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 14.90%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 179 million CNY, up 19.88% year-on-year, meeting expectations [1]. - The shipping rates remained relatively strong in Q3, with the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) averaging 3082 points, a year-on-year increase of 12.67% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.26%. This favorable shipping rate environment supports the company's global freight forwarding and mobility operations [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in chemical demand, as domestic and international chemical inventories are at relatively low levels. The ongoing policy support in China is anticipated to boost chemical demand, leading to increased operating rates and inventory replenishment, which will enhance the company's trade volume and warehouse capacity utilization [1]. - The integrated logistics service model is expected to drive continuous performance release, with the company expanding its distribution services for chemical products. The new warehouses launched in 2023 are still ramping up capacity utilization, indicating significant profit potential [1]. - Earnings forecasts for the company are optimistic, with expected EPS of 3.84 CNY, 4.77 CNY, and 5.52 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively. The report assigns a 20x PE valuation for 2024, leading to a reasonable value of 76.77 CNY per share [1]. Financial Summary - For 2024E, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 12.349 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 26.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 622 million CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 44.1% [6][8]. - The EBITDA for 2024E is forecasted at 1.521 billion CNY, with a significant increase in profitability anticipated in the following years [6][8]. - The report highlights a projected increase in EPS from 3.68 CNY in 2022 to 5.52 CNY by 2026, indicating a strong growth trajectory [8].

Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on the construction and decoration industry, particularly focusing on the benefits of debt resolution for construction companies, which is expected to improve order acquisition, financial structure, and valuation [2][3] Core Views - Local debt resolution is progressing smoothly, with a clear five-year debt clearance target. The central government has allocated significant funds to support debt resolution, including 2.2 trillion yuan in 2023 and 1.2 trillion yuan in 2024 [2] - Regions with better economic foundations are expected to see marginal improvements in their economic environment, especially those with significant fixed investment gaps and past central government support [2] - Areas with high expenditure pressure and debt burdens, such as Sichuan, Guangdong, Shandong, and Henan, are likely to receive policy support to alleviate their financial stress [2] - Policy relaxation and endogenous growth in regions where financing platforms have exited are expected to improve local financing capabilities, benefiting local construction companies [2] Regional Selection and Investment Strategies Strategy 1: Regions with Strong Economic Foundations - Regions with better economic foundations, such as Shandong, Sichuan, Anhui, and Shaanxi, are expected to see significant improvements in their fundamentals due to fiscal support and fixed investment gaps [2][17] - These regions have faced pressure on local government revenues, particularly due to declines in land sales revenue, but are expected to benefit from future policy support [17] Strategy 2: Regions with High Expenditure Pressure - Regions with high expenditure pressure, such as Yunnan, Guizhou, Shanxi, and Chongqing, are likely to receive policy support to address their financial gaps and high debt burdens [2][21] - These regions have significant fiscal deficits and high debt service pressures, making them key targets for debt resolution policies [21] Strategy 3: Policy Relaxation and Endogenous Growth - Regions where financing platforms have exited, such as Chongqing, are expected to see improved financing capabilities, which will benefit local construction companies [2][29] - The exit of financing platforms in these regions is expected to lead to better financing conditions and increased demand for construction projects [29] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading state-owned construction companies in key provinces, central construction enterprises with significant infrastructure projects, and design consulting firms in key regions [3][31] - Specific companies highlighted include Anhui Construction Engineering, Tunnel Co, Sichuan Road & Bridge, and China Communications Construction, among others [3][31] Financial Analysis of Key Companies - The report provides detailed financial analysis of key companies, including their debt levels, asset structures, and profitability metrics [5][31] - Companies such as China State Construction Engineering, China Railway Construction, and China Communications Construction are highlighted for their strong financial positions and potential for improvement [5][31]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The life insurance premium growth has generally expanded due to low year-on-year comparisons and high household savings willingness. The original premium growth rates for major listed life insurance companies from January to September are 9.8% for Ping An, 5.1% for China Life, 1.9% for New China Life, and 2.4% for China Pacific, showing an increase from August's rates of 8.9%, 5.9%, 1.9%, and 1.5% respectively. However, the single-month premium growth in September saw a decline, with rates of 20.1%, -4%, 2.1%, and 12.6% respectively, primarily due to the reduction in the guaranteed interest rate of traditional insurance products, which led to some savings demand being brought forward [3][3]. - The property insurance premium growth continues to accelerate, with the year-on-year growth rates for major property insurers from January to September being 4.6% for PICC Property, 5.9% for Ping An Property, and 7.7% for China Pacific Property, all showing an increase from August's rates of 4.3%, 5.3%, and 7.7% respectively. The growth in auto insurance premiums is expected to gradually expand due to a recovery in macroeconomic conditions and an increase in average premiums [3][3]. Summary by Sections Life Insurance - The life insurance premium growth for major companies has shown a general expansion, with Ping An leading in cumulative premium growth due to new business driving renewal premium growth. The shift in product structure towards participating insurance is anticipated due to the reduction in guaranteed interest rates, with a focus on the 2025 new product situation [3][3]. Property Insurance - The property insurance sector has seen a continued acceleration in premium growth, with significant contributions from both auto and non-auto insurance segments. The growth in auto insurance premiums is expected to improve as the average premium stabilizes and macroeconomic recovery takes place [3][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a "Buy" rating for the insurance sector, highlighting that the growth in liabilities and the expected improvement in asset performance, combined with favorable policies, support this outlook. Specific stocks to watch include China Pacific Insurance, New China Life, Ping An, China Life, China Taiping, China Property, and AIA [3][3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Viewpoints - The implementation of the water resource tax reform pilot program aims to encourage water conservation and increase local fiscal revenue. The reform will differentiate tax rates based on water resource conditions and usage types, with higher rates for groundwater extraction in areas of severe water scarcity [1] - The total estimated water resource tax revenue nationwide is projected to be 48.2 billion CNY, with local government fiscal revenue expected to increase by 4.8 billion CNY [1] - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in recycled water, water-saving technologies, and water utility companies, particularly focusing on companies like Jinko Environment, Sanda Membrane, and Beikong Water Group [1][2] Summary by Sections Policy Changes - On October 16, the Ministry of Finance, State Taxation Administration, and Ministry of Water Resources jointly issued the "Implementation Measures for the Pilot Program of Water Resource Tax Reform," which will be fully implemented nationwide starting December 1 [1] - The reform aims to replace the previous water resource fee system with a tax system that varies based on water type and economic development [1] Financial Implications - The report estimates that the total water resource tax for both domestic and industrial use in 2022 was approximately 482.21 billion CNY, with surface water accounting for 83.3% and groundwater for 13.8% of total water usage [1][7] - The minimum average tax rates for surface and groundwater vary by province, with surface water rates ranging from 0.1 to 1.6 CNY per cubic meter and groundwater rates from 0.2 to 4 CNY per cubic meter [7] Company Focus - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in recycled water and water-saving technologies, such as Jinko Environment, which specializes in recycled water equipment, and Beikong Water Group, which is expected to benefit from improved local fiscal capabilities post-reform [1][2]

[Table_Title] 牛市中的市价订单与相关因子 海量 Level 2 数据因子挖掘系列（五） [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： 限价订单是指投资者设定一个指定价格，只有当市场价格达到或超过 这一价格时，订单才会被执行。在中国 A 股市场中，绝大部分的订单 类型为限价订单。 市价订单则是指提交订单时以当时订单簿中最优价格完成交易，其撮 合顺序将优于限价订单，所以市价单的执行可能性大于限价订单，也 不像限价单那样具有较高的逆向选择成本。当市场参与者的成交意愿 十分强烈时，提交市价订单是成交机会最高的订单方式。 在深证 A 股内，2019 年 3 月至 2024 年 9 月期间，采用 5 日平滑因子 以 20 日换仓进行选股，其中 6 个因子的 RankIC 均值大于 6.0%，胜 率大于 70%。其中，MarketSellOrder_LimitSellOrder_ratio 因子的选 股性能最优，分档组合收益的单调性显著，其 RankIC 均值为-6.6%、 胜率为 25%，根据该因子构建的 Top-30 组合在双边千三计费后的年化 收益率为 13.66%、最大回撤率为 36.72%、夏普比率为 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [5] Core Insights - The report highlights that the central bank's monetary policy has exceeded expectations, with significant net liquidity absorption observed in the market [3][28] - A series of fiscal counter-cyclical policies have been announced, including increasing debt limits and issuing special government bonds to support major state-owned banks [3][28] - The liquidity in the banking sector is expected to remain stable, with a focus on the upcoming financial data for September [3][28] Summary by Sections 1. Focus on Strengthening Fiscal Policies - The central bank conducted 3,701 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos at a rate of 1.50%, resulting in a net absorption of 13,250 billion yuan [3][28] - Government bond net payments were 3,462.34 billion yuan, with expectations for an increase in the pace of government bond financing due to new fiscal policies [3][28] 2. Central Bank Dynamics and Market Rates - The end-of-period rates for DR001, DR007, and DR014 were 1.32%, 1.45%, and 1.81%, showing decreases of -19.7bp, -10.0bp, and -18.0bp respectively [4][28] - The liquidity in the interbank market has improved, leading to a decline in funding rates [4][28] 3. Bank Financing Tracking - The issuance of negotiable certificates of deposit (NCD) was 896 billion yuan, with a net financing of -2,482 billion yuan [4][29] - The weighted average issuance rate for NCDs was 1.92%, remaining stable compared to the previous period [29][30] - The total outstanding amount of interbank certificates of deposit reached 17.55 trillion yuan, with an average remaining maturity of 160 days [30]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Hold" [4] Core Insights - The home appliance retail sector experienced significant growth during the National Day holiday, with sales reaching 17.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 149% [2][13] - The "old-for-new" policy has effectively boosted home appliance consumption, with over 8.23 million consumers purchasing 11.78 million units since the policy's implementation in August, generating over 55.7 billion yuan in sales [2][15] - White goods are expected to see stable growth, benefiting from the "old-for-new" policy, with recommendations for Gree Electric, Haier Smart Home (A/H), and Hisense Home Appliances (A/H) [2][18] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that white goods will maintain steady growth, with stable ROE and high dividend advantages, and recommends Gree Electric, Haier Smart Home (A/H), and Hisense Home Appliances (A/H) as key investment opportunities [2][18] Weekly Market Review (2024.10.07-2024.10.11) - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 3.3%, while the home appliance sector index decreased by 2.3% [3][21] - The black appliance index dropped by 7.2%, and the white appliance index saw a slight decline of 0.1% [3][22] Industry Performance Data - During the National Day holiday, 2.519 million consumers purchased over 3.74 million units of eight major appliance categories, with significant increases in sales across various channels [2][13] - The online and offline retail data for major categories showed substantial year-on-year growth, particularly in air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines [23][24] Industry Dynamics - The "Two New" policy has been a strong support for high-quality economic development, significantly impacting consumer behavior and market vitality [35][36] - The policy aims to enhance energy efficiency and reduce carbon emissions through the replacement of outdated appliances [35][36] Company Dynamics - Bosch Home Appliances has been recognized for its sustainable practices, winning the "Green Point Award" for three consecutive years, highlighting its commitment to environmental responsibility [37]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" with a previous rating of "Buy" as well [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the upcoming fiscal policy measures aimed at stabilizing growth, expanding domestic demand, and mitigating risks, including significant debt replacement for local governments and support for the real estate market [2]. - The "risk mitigation" strategy is highlighted as a key focus, with over 22 trillion yuan allocated for local government debt support and an additional 1.2 trillion yuan planned for 2024 [2]. - The report suggests that the debt resolution efforts will positively impact construction companies' order acquisition, financial structure improvement, and project funding availability [2]. Summary by Sections Fiscal Policy Measures - The Ministry of Finance plans to introduce targeted policies to address local government debt and support the real estate market, which includes issuing special bonds to bolster bank capital and enhance credit capacity [2]. - Emphasis on maintaining government investment levels to stimulate economic development [2]. Construction Industry Outlook - The report anticipates that debt resolution will lead to improved cash flow for construction firms and enhance the profitability of leading state-owned enterprises [2]. - It predicts a recovery in valuations for the construction sector due to improved fundamentals and new infrastructure investment opportunities [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading state-owned construction companies in key provinces, central construction enterprises with high infrastructure ratios, design consulting firms, and specialized engineering state-owned enterprises [2]. - Specific companies to watch include Anhui Construction, Tunnel Co., China Communications Construction, and China State Construction Engineering [2].

调等影响导致储蓄类产品需求被前置，预计三季度新单增速有望继续 提升。当前预定利率虽然已经下调，但考虑到竞品类产品收益率也在持 [Table_Contacts] 续走低，2025 年新单保费有望保持相对稳定。个股建议关注：中国太 保（A/H）、新华保险（A/H）、中国平安（A/H）、中国太平（H）、 中国人寿（A/H）、中国财险（H）、友邦保险（H）。 ⚫ 港股金融：建议关注受益于流动性改善及政策优化的香港交易所以及 资产端量价稳步上行、负债端成本有望下行的中银航空租赁。 ⚫ 风险提示：资本市场大幅波动、行业竞争加剧、行业政策变动等。 [Table_Page] 投资策略周报|非银金融 证券研究报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...