[Table_Page] 投资策略|点评报告 2025 年 12 月 3 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 晨会精选 ——观点全追踪（12 月第 2 期） [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： | [分析师： Table_Author]郑恺 | | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260515090004 | | SFC CE No. BUU989 | | 021-38003559 | | zhengkai@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 黄晓萍 | | SAC 执证号：S0260525060003 | | 0000-000 | | huangxiaoping@gf.com.cn | | 请注意，黄晓萍并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注 | | 册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | [联系人： Table_Contacts] 毕露露 bilulu@gf.com.cn 972918116公共联系人2025-12-03 00:20:31 1 / 3 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 ⚫ 机械：散货船与油轮的行业新船订单显著改善。根据 clarksons，25 年 10 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report analyzes how overseas banks have managed risks, categorizing risk causes into four main types: foreign exchange risk and domestic macroeconomic pressure affecting asset quality, real estate risk and credit exposure under subprime debt, national debt burden and high leverage leading to capital and profit decline, and liquidity risk stemming from weak asset liquidity and liability runs [16][17][18] - The report highlights a shift in government risk management strategies, moving from substantial risk resolution to liquidity support, with a focus on early detection and response to risks. The primary methods for addressing credit risk in overseas banking have become "banks saving banks" and self-rescue [17][18] - The evolution of overseas banking risks has transitioned from external to internal and liquidity-driven issues, with a growing emphasis on managing interest rate risk, liquidity risk, and single customer structure risk [18] Summary by Sections Section 1: How Overseas Banks Address Credit Risk - The report reviews the historical context of overseas banking risks from 1990 to the present, identifying four main categories of risk [16] - It discusses the role of government in risk management, noting a trend towards less direct intervention and more emphasis on liquidity support [17] Section 2: Asian Financial Crisis (1998-2006) - The macroeconomic background of the Asian financial crisis is outlined, detailing how the crisis spread from Thailand to other Southeast Asian nations [20] - The case of the Long-Term Credit Bank of Japan is examined, highlighting its reliance on real estate lending and the consequences of the economic bubble burst [29][30] Section 3: Subprime Crisis (2007-2009) - The report discusses the subprime crisis, focusing on the failures of Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns, and the impact of high leverage and real estate exposure [16][17] Section 4: European Sovereign Debt Crisis (2010-2013) - The report analyzes the European sovereign debt crisis, particularly the experiences of Deutsche Bank and Dexia, emphasizing the need for improved risk management practices [18] Section 5: Post-Pandemic Interest Rate Risks - The report addresses the liquidity risks and interest rate volatility faced by banks in the aftermath of the pandemic, noting the vulnerabilities of certain banks due to weak customer structures and profit models [18]

[Table_Page] 投资策略|点评报告 2025 年 12 月 2 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 晨会精选 ——观点全追踪（12 月第 1 期） ⚫ 策略：港股通高股息全收益将迎来一年中日历效应最强的时候（12 月 -次年 1 月中旬），该阶段获得绝对收益/超额收益的概率较大、收益率 较高。为何港股红利在岁末年初日历效应如此之强？我们理解原因有 三：（1）最核心原因是可能是公募基金等追求相对收益的资金，在年 底进行资产再平衡的关键窗口期。为了锁定当年收益，部分机构可能会 卖出一些短期估值较高、波动较大的成长股，短期转向高股息、高安全 边际的港股红利板块。比较典型的是 2016-2017 年蓝筹白马、2021 年 新能源车牛市、2022 年 10 月政策放松后 TMT 快速上行，均在年末至 次年初，出现前期强势板块调整，市场风格短期偏移至港股红利板块。 （2）潜在因素之一是 12 月-1 月是保费高峰，面对增量资金，部分险 资可能会在高股息资产里快速建仓以匹配负债成本，形成刚性买盘。 （3）潜在因素之二是年末政策催化/出台期，一旦支持提高分红政策落 地或者是稳增长政策低于预期，都可能会催生 ...

Core Insights - The real estate sector is experiencing significant pressure with high base growth rates leading to a decline in market performance [1] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, indicating potential investment opportunities despite current challenges [2] Market Performance - In October 2025, the transaction volume of commodity residential properties in 46 cities decreased by 33.3% year-on-year, with a notable decline in first-tier cities at 39.1% [11][12] - The cumulative transaction volume from January to October 2025 shows a 10.9% year-on-year decrease [11] - The second-hand housing market also faced challenges, with transaction volumes in 11 cities down by 21.3% year-on-year [35] Market Sentiment - The second-hand housing prices fell by 1.7% month-on-month in October 2025, marking a total decline of 13.0% since the beginning of the year [5][35] - Inventory levels in the new housing market showed a slight decrease, with a 2.1% reduction in short-term inventory in 10 key cities [5] Policy Environment - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes promoting high-quality development in real estate, shifting from suppression to encouragement of reasonable demand [5][29] - The government is gradually lifting restrictive measures, which may positively impact market sentiment in the long term [5] Land Market Dynamics - In October 2025, the land transfer revenue in 600 cities dropped by 27.8% year-on-year, indicating a cooling land market [5] - The average land premium rate fell to 3.3%, the lowest since 2025, reflecting cautious bidding behavior among developers [5] Company Performance - The top 100 real estate companies reported a sales amount of 276.6 billion yuan in October 2025, a 41% year-on-year decline [29] - State-owned enterprises showed a year-on-year sales decline of 37%, while private enterprises faced a more severe drop of 52% [30] Investment Outlook - The SW Real Estate Index fell by 2.37% in October 2025, underperforming the broader market by 2.4 percentage points [5] - The report suggests holding quality real estate development companies, as the market is expected to stabilize and recover gradually [5]

Report Basic Information - Reported Company: Jilin Aodong [16] - Industry: Chemical Pharmaceuticals [2] - Research Date: July 17, 2025 [16] - Company Representatives: Wang Zhenyu (Director, Deputy General Manager, Secretary of the Board), Zhao Renhe (Director of the Board Office, Securities Affairs Representative) [16] Participating Institutions - "Innovation Sailing, King's Moment - The 20th Pharmaceutical Hundred Listed Companies Exchange Meeting (Beijing Station)" [17] - Guosheng Securities (Representative: Zhang Yu) [17] - Beijing Hongdao (Representative: Tang Yulin) [17] - Yimin Fund (Representative: Gui Guan) [17] - CITIC Securities Asset Management (Representative: Peng Kang) [17] - Ginkgo Capital (Representative: Zhang Haijun) [17] Institution Proportion - Others: 33% [21] - Securities Companies: 17% [21] - Investment Companies: 17% [21] - Fund Management Companies: 17% [21] - Asset Management Companies: 17% [21] Core Business Highlights Business Revenue Structure in 2024 - Total revenue from three major business segments (traditional Chinese medicine, chemical drugs, and chain pharmacy wholesale and retail) reached 2.273761 billion yuan, with traditional Chinese medicine contributing 1.6055413 billion yuan (61.50%), chemical drugs 276.8538 million yuan (10.61%), and chain pharmacy business 391.366 million yuan (14.99%) [22] - Revenue from the health - care business was 212.1299 million yuan, accounting for 8.13% of the total revenue [22] Key Product Analysis - **An Shen Bu Nao Ye**: With a large target audience due to the increasing number of insomnia sufferers, its sales growth is supported by consumer trust in the brand and product efficacy, and the unique geographical advantage of its raw materials. It is mainly sold outside hospitals. The company implements an "An Shen +" combination strategy to drive performance growth [22][23] - **Xue Fu Zhu Yu Kou Fu Ye**: A well - recognized product with multiple honors. Its selection in the national Chinese patent medicine procurement alliance's volume - based procurement in 2024 is expected to expand sales. The company will continue brand building, strengthen cooperation with major pharmaceutical chains, and promote clinical use [24] Project Progress - **Chinese Medicine Formula Granule Project**: As of December 31, 2024, 228.776 million yuan of the raised funds had been used. Multiple workshops passed the GMP compliance inspection on January 23, 2025. The company has obtained 525 "Listing Filing Certificates for Chinese Medicine Formula Granules" and is focusing on market development [25] Investment in GF Securities - As of March 31, 2025, the company and its wholly - owned subsidiaries held 1,529,911,767 shares of GF Securities, accounting for 20.11% of the total shares. In 2024, the company's investment income from GF Securities was 174.94045 million yuan, a 40.69% increase from the previous year [25][26] Dividend Policy - The company has formulated a "Three - Year (2024 - 2026) Shareholder Return Plan", increasing the frequency and optimizing the rhythm of dividends. It has a 17 - year history of cash dividends, with a cumulative cash dividend of 4.505 billion yuan since listing. It aims to enhance the stability and predictability of dividends in the future [26]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The recent trade agreement between the US and Vietnam is favorable for Chinese manufacturers with production capacity in Vietnam, such as Ruiming Technology and Daotong Technology. This agreement clarifies tariff situations, allowing these companies to benefit from lower tariffs when exporting to the US [6] - Ruiming Technology has invested in a smart manufacturing center in Vietnam since 2022, which began production in May 2023. The company estimates that the US market will account for nearly 15% of its total revenue in Q1 2025, supported by strong bargaining power due to high product technology content and deep customer ties [6] - Daotong Technology has diversified its production capacity, which will mitigate the impact of tariffs. The company has established an SMT production line in Vietnam since 2020 and aims for 50% of its total revenue to come from the US by 2024. The company is also expanding its presence in Mexico, benefiting from zero-tariff advantages under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement [6] Summary by Sections Trade Agreement Impact - The US-Vietnam trade agreement imposes a 20% tariff on goods imported from Vietnam to the US, while Vietnam will exempt US imports. Products from other countries transiting through Vietnam will face a 40% tariff [6] - This agreement is expected to benefit companies like Ruiming Technology and Daotong Technology, which have established production facilities in Vietnam [6] Company Performance - Ruiming Technology's high product technology content and strong customer relationships enhance its pricing power, leading to high gross margins and potential profit growth [6] - Daotong Technology's AI initiatives and diversified production strategies are expected to drive further performance improvements [6] Financial Analysis - Ruiming Technology's estimated EPS for 2025 is 2.41 CNY, with a PE ratio of 20.37x, while Daotong Technology's estimated EPS is 1.79 CNY, with a PE ratio of 17.88x [7]

Employment Data Summary - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 106,000[3] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and previous value of 4.2%[3] - The average increase in non-farm jobs over the past three months is 150,000[3] Sector Analysis - Private sector job growth was 74,000, below the expected 100,000[3] - State and local government sectors added 80,000 jobs, with healthcare contributing 59,000 and leisure and hospitality adding 20,000, accounting for 96% of total job growth[3] - Manufacturing, wholesale trade, and federal government sectors each lost 7,000 jobs, indicating weaknesses in these areas[4] Unemployment Insights - The unemployment rate (U3) decreased from 4.24% to 4.12%, with the permanent unemployment rate dropping from 1.12% to 1.11%[4] - Initial jobless claims fell by 4,000 to 233,000, while continuing claims remained steady at 1.964 million[4] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate was 62.3%, slightly below the expected 62.4%[7] - Job leavers contributed 0.07 percentage points to the unemployment rate, while other factors negatively impacted it[6] - The employment diffusion index fell below 50 for the second time since August 2024, indicating a slowdown in job growth[6] Wage Growth Trends - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.7% year-over-year, slightly below the expected 3.8%[7] - The Index of Aggregate Payrolls Private showed a year-over-year increase of 4.5%, down from 4.9% but still above the average of 4.8% for 2024[8] Federal Reserve Outlook - The likelihood of the Federal Reserve not lowering interest rates in July is high, with a 63.8% probability of a rate cut in September[8] - Strong employment data and policy stimulus have alleviated concerns about economic downturns, supporting risk assets[8]

Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of deep-sea wind power development in China, with a significant increase in both onshore and offshore wind installations expected in 2025, projecting 100GW for onshore and 15GW for offshore [5][15][19] - The transition from a "price war" to a "value war" in the wind turbine market is noted, emphasizing the importance of technology development and cost control to achieve a reasonable price recovery for equipment [5][15] - The global wind power market is expected to add 170GW in new installations in 2025, with China contributing 115GW, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32.20% [5][15] Policy Support and Market Dynamics - Domestic policies are driving the rapid development of offshore wind power, with various provinces setting ambitious targets for wind energy installations under the 14th Five-Year Plan [15][19] - The report indicates that the bidding volume for wind projects has exceeded expectations, particularly in offshore wind, which is expected to be a highlight for growth in the coming years [5][19] - The report anticipates a structural price increase in the supply chain, particularly in the casting and forging segments, due to tight supply and increasing demand [5][15] Supply Chain and Component Analysis - The demand for large-scale wind turbine components, such as cast and forged shafts, is expected to tighten, with market sizes projected at 6.874 billion CNY for forged shafts and 2.077 billion CNY for cast shafts in 2025-2026 [5][15] - The report emphasizes the importance of production capacity for large blades, as companies with such capabilities are expected to gain significant pricing power [5][15] - The offshore wind market is experiencing a shift towards floating wind farms, with various countries enhancing policies to boost offshore wind installation demand [5][15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are advancing in offshore wind deployment and have a high proportion of overseas customers, including major manufacturers like Mingyang Smart Energy, Goldwind Technology, and Sany Heavy Energy [5][15] - Specific segments to watch include complete turbine manufacturers, casting and forging companies, and those involved in the supply of cables and transformers [5][15] - The investment strategy emphasizes the potential for structural price increases in the supply chain, particularly in components that are currently in high demand [5][15]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the home appliance industry is under pressure but aims for steady progress, with a focus on the impact of policies such as the old-for-new program [1] 2025 Mid-Year Summary - The home appliance sector has experienced a slight decline in valuation, with the industry index down 3.8% from January 1 to June 23, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.9 percentage points [7][18] - Domestic sales have shown significant improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 30.2% in retail sales of home appliances from January to May 2025, driven by the old-for-new policy [27][28] - The export market has also demonstrated resilience, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 2.2% in appliance exports from January to May 2025, despite tariff concerns [27][28] 2025 Second Half Outlook - The domestic market is expected to benefit from the continuation of the old-for-new policy, with a total of 300 billion yuan allocated for subsidies in 2025, of which 162 billion yuan has already been utilized [39][40] - The report anticipates that the cost pressures from raw materials will remain manageable, with only copper prices showing a significant increase of 15.5% year-to-date [46][49] - The white goods sector is projected to maintain stable growth, benefiting from the old-for-new policy, with recommended stocks including Midea Group, Gree Electric, and Haier Smart Home [8][10] Long-Term Outlook - The report highlights trends towards diversification, globalization, and smart home technology in the home appliance industry, with a focus on high-end consumer potential and cost-performance considerations [39][43]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the copper industry, indicating a positive outlook on their performance and potential growth [5]. Core Insights - Global copper mine production growth is nearing a turning point, with significant constraints on new supply due to low capital expenditures and declining ore grades [4][14]. - The report highlights the importance of copper price elasticity, driven by sustained demand from energy and electric vehicle sectors, while supply remains constrained [4]. Summary by Sections Copper Mine Overview - Global copper supply growth is projected at 2.0%, 3.0%, and 1.0% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a long-term challenge in increasing production [4][18]. - The report identifies that the main reasons for weak production growth include over a decade of low capital expenditure and limited new projects [4][25]. Key Project Analysis - In 2025, four projects are expected to contribute over 50,000 tons of copper, while five projects may see reductions exceeding 40,000 tons [4][46]. - Notable projects include Oyu Tolgoi, Mopani, Udokan, and Las Bambas for increases, while Grasberg, Batu Hijau, and others are highlighted for potential decreases [4][46]. Regional Analysis - Chile faces production challenges due to declining ore grades and insufficient capital expenditure, while the Democratic Republic of Congo shows high potential for production increases [4][58][77]. - Peru's copper production is expected to stabilize as community relations improve, with Las Bambas projected to reach 36-40 million tons by 2025 [70][72]. Recycled Copper - Domestic recycled copper resources are growing slowly, and a decline in imports is exacerbating supply tightness [4][20]. Smelting - The report anticipates a tightening of copper concentrate supply post-2025, leading to worsening overcapacity in smelting [4][21]. Investment Recommendations - Given the long-term demand for copper in energy and electric vehicles, and the constraints on supply, the report emphasizes the need to focus on copper price elasticity [4][25].