Group 1 - The report indicates that non-US assets have continued to exhibit a bullish atmosphere during the holiday period, with risk assets strengthening and stock indices in Europe, East Asia, and South America reaching historical highs [3][4][9] - The performance of overseas risk assets suggests that global liquidity remains abundant, with funds flowing into economies and stock markets expected to show marginal changes, making Chinese stocks attractive to global investors [3][9] - The report maintains the view from the previous report that a new upward cycle is anticipated, encouraging investors to regain confidence and prepare for the first wave of the market's rise in the Year of the Horse [3][53] Group 2 - The report highlights that during the 2026 Spring Festival, major stock indices such as the KOSPI in South Korea and the STOXX 600 in Europe reached new highs, with the KOSPI leading with a 5.48% increase [4][8] - Commodity markets showed a broad upward trend, with NYMEX crude oil surging by 5.94% and COMEX silver rising by 8.63%, indicating strong demand in these sectors [4][8] - The report notes that European corporate earnings have exceeded expectations, with the STOXX 600 index's price-to-earnings ratio at 18.3, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 27.7, suggesting a valuation advantage for European stocks [5][8] Group 3 - The report discusses the AI industry, noting that the demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is driven by the need for massive computing power in generative AI and large model training, with Samsung and SK Hynix dominating the global HBM market [9][48] - The report mentions that the performance of the AI sector is expected to continue to improve, with significant revenue projections for companies involved in AI, such as OpenAI, which anticipates over $280 billion in revenue by 2030 [49][51] - The report highlights the advancements in AI models and the competitive landscape, with major companies like Google and Anthropic releasing new models that enhance capabilities in various sectors [48][49]

1 月美国 CPI 数据显示，通胀整体仍具韧性+放缓。CPI 同比增 2.4% ，低于预期的 2.5%，前值+2.7%；环比 +0.2%，低于预期和前值的+0.3%。核心 CPI 同比增 2.5%，符合预期，前值 2.6%；核心 CPI 环比+0.3%，符 合预期，高于前值的 0.2%。 能源价格增速显著回落，环比-1.5%，其中，汽油（-3.2%）和燃油（-5.7%）价格回落为主要背景。 食品价格环比为+0.2%，前值为 0.7%。其中，家庭食品（food at home）和餐馆用餐价格增速均显著回落，环 比分别为+0.2%和 0.1%，前值分别为 0.6%和 0.7%。 1 月核心商品环比为 0%，持平于前值，核心服务价格有所回弹，环比从 0.3%回升至 0.4%。 [Table_Title] 广发宏观 美国 1 月通胀相对温和 [Tabl e_Author] 分析师： 郭磊 分析师： 陈嘉荔 SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 SFC CE.no: BNY419 SAC 执证号：S0260523120005 021-38003572 021-38003674 guolei@gf.com.cn ...

[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2026 年 2 月 14 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 广发宏观 1 月美国 CPI 数据显示，通胀整体仍具韧性+放缓。CPI 同比增 2.4% ，低于预期的 2.5%，前值+2.7%；环比 +0.2%，低于预期和前值的+0.3%。核心 CPI 同比增 2.5%，符合预期，前值 2.6%；核心 CPI 环比+0.3%，符 合预期，高于前值的 0.2%。 能源价格增速显著回落，环比-1.5%，其中，汽油（-3.2%）和燃油（-5.7%）价格回落为主要背景。 食品价格环比为+0.2%，前值为 0.7%。其中，家庭食品（food at home）和餐馆用餐价格增速均显著回落，环 比分别为+0.2%和 0.1%，前值分别为 0.6%和 0.7%。 1 月核心商品环比为 0%，持平于前值，核心服务价格有所回弹，环比从 0.3%回升至 0.4%。 [Tabl e_Author] 分析师： 郭磊 分析师： 陈嘉荔 SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 SFC CE.no: BNY419 SAC 执证号：S0260523120005 021-3800357 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Buy" [6] Core Insights - The overall social financing growth slightly declined to 8.2% in January, while M1 and M2 growth rates significantly rebounded, with M1 growing by 4.9% and M2 by 9.0% [6][16] - Government net financing increased significantly by 2,831 billion yuan year-on-year, contributing to the overall social financing growth [6][17] - The report indicates a shift in deposit structure due to accelerated deposit migration, impacting M1 negatively while having limited effect on M2 [6][16] Summary by Sections Overall Situation - Social financing growth decreased slightly to 8.2%, while M1 and M2 growth rates increased significantly [15][16] - M1 and M2 growth rates rose by 1.1 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month [6][16] Government Sector - Fiscal strength showed a year-on-year decline, impacting overall financing dynamics [39] Household Sector - Demand remained stable year-on-year, with short-term loan demand increasing [39] Corporate Sector - Short-term loan demand increased year-on-year, while bill financing saw a significant reduction [39] Non-Bank Sector - The acceleration of deposit migration was noted, with non-bank deposits increasing by 1.45 trillion yuan year-on-year [6][39]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the current market is likely to experience a divergence in expectations, moving from a long-term bullish sentiment to a more uncertain and volatile environment, making interest rate strategies more favorable [1] - The primary risk associated with interest rate strategies is default risk, which has evolved over time, particularly in the context of credit bonds [1] Group 1: Credit Bond Default Risk Reassessment - Historical default rates show that private enterprises have a higher proportion of defaults, particularly in the real estate sector, while state-owned enterprises and banks have experienced occasional unexpected risks [11] - The current landscape of industrial bonds is dominated by state-owned enterprises, with a low probability of events similar to "Yong Coal," indicating that risk industries have reached a bottom [12] - The preference for holdings in public bond funds is shifting towards state-owned enterprises, counter-cyclical industries, quality regions, and leading institutions, reflecting a low exposure to risk [12] Group 2: Market Volatility and Interest Rate Strategies - The report outlines two main strategies for navigating the anticipated market volatility in 2026: - Strategy One focuses on credit downshifting and long-duration bonds with yields above 2.5%, targeting stable liabilities and absolute returns, particularly in city investment bonds and state-owned enterprise bonds [2] - Strategy Two emphasizes high liquidity and low volatility bonds with yields above 2.0%, aimed at defensive allocations in strong regions and leading enterprises [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Economic Indicators - The report notes that the lack of sufficient negative factors, combined with a weak economic recovery and unchanged monetary policy, suggests that the market will likely remain in a state of fluctuation [2] - The report highlights that while there is some room for interest rate cuts, the timing will depend on the verification of increasing economic recovery pressures [2] - The bond market is currently constrained within a range, leading to a higher probability of volatility [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Since 2025, the amplitude of the 10-year Treasury bond has narrowed, showing a typical wedge-shaped consolidation pattern. The 30-year Treasury bond started a downward trend in July 2025 and has experienced short-term shock repairs since early 2026. Both are approaching a turning point [3]. - The trading logic of the 30-year Treasury bond futures (TL) may have changed, and it may have entered a medium - to long - term downward channel. The rebound since January 2026 is likely a technical repair rather than a trend reversal. It is recommended to short at high levels in the resistance range of 113 - 113.5 [3][21]. - The 10-year Treasury bond futures (T) are in a wedge-shaped consolidation pattern, which is likely a trend continuation adjustment. After the consolidation, the price is more likely to continue the previous upward trend. The end time of the wedge-shaped consolidation is expected to be around April [3][42]. Summary by Directory I. Technical Analysis: The Key to Analyzing Long - Term Interest Rates - Technical analysis is effective in analyzing the 30-year Treasury bond because it is a speculative product, and its price is driven by risk preference and policy expectations. Technical analysis can capture market trends, quantify risk preferences, and verify policy expectations [9]. - For speculative products, price and trend in technical analysis are important signals. Technical indicators can show overbought/oversold conditions and divergence signals. In policy expectation games, technical analysis can confirm market expectations and reflect narrative changes [9][10]. II. Treasury Bond Futures: A More Ideal Carrier for Technical Analysis - Treasury bond futures, especially the 10-year and 30-year main contracts, are more effective for technical analysis than spot bonds due to their standardization, high liquidity, and transparent and centralized trading characteristics, which can more purely and sensitively reflect market sentiment [11]. - Compared with spot bonds, Treasury bond futures have advantages in liquidity, price continuity, leverage and speculative attributes, and information reaction efficiency. Their price trends are more continuous and can lead spot bonds [13]. III. 30 - Year Treasury Bond Futures (TL): The Long - Term Trading Logic May Have Changed (1) Trend Positioning: The "Double Top" Pattern is Established, and It May Enter a Medium - to Long - Term Downward Channel - Technically, the TL contract broke through the key support level in December 2025, forming a "double top" pattern and entering a long - term downward channel. The improvement of macro - expectations and the strengthening of confidence in the equity bull market may be the underlying factors driving the decline [22]. - In the short - to medium - term, the rebound since January 2026 is difficult to reverse the long - term downward trend. The rebound momentum is weakening, and the suppression of risk preference continues, so the current rebound is likely a technical repair [24][26]. (2) Short - Term Trend: Approaching the Time to Short at High Levels - The 30 - year Treasury bond has a high odds ratio. The 30 - 10 - year Treasury bond spread is at a high level, and there is still room for compression in the old - new bond spread [29]. - The resistance range of 113 - 113.5 is expected. If the upward trend continues, the increase may be 0.1% - 0.6%. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures may reach the top around the Two Sessions in early March [34][38]. IV. 10 - Year Treasury Bond Futures (T): Pay Attention to the End Time of the Wedge - Shaped Consolidation Pattern (1) Long - Term in a Triangular Convergence Channel - Since 2025, the T contract has been in a wedge - shaped consolidation pattern, showing a symmetrical triangular convergence. The price fluctuation range has narrowed, and the trading volume has decreased. The balance of long - and short - term forces is waiting for a directional breakthrough [43]. - The "strong expectation + weak reality" situation and the guidance of the reasonable range have led to the long - and short - term tug - of war in the 10 - year Treasury bond, forming a long - term oscillatory pattern. An incremental signal is needed for a breakthrough [43]. (2) Directional Choice is Approaching - The end time of the wedge - shaped consolidation may be around April. Without an incremental signal, it is unlikely to break through the shock pattern in the current wave band. If the current market situation is extrapolated, the end time may be from late March to early April or the end of April [44]. - After the end of the wedge - shaped consolidation, the price is more likely to continue the previous upward trend because the current wedge - shaped pattern is similar to a symmetrical triangle, which is a typical trend continuation pattern [47].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a current price of $102.38 and a fair value of $127.17 [5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that Disney has built a robust business model through a combination of content production, diverse distribution channels, and offline experiences, creating a closed-loop commercial ecosystem [7]. - Disney's strategy has shifted from focusing solely on growth to enhancing quality and profitability, particularly in its D2C (Direct-to-Consumer) segment, which has seen significant investment despite lower profit margins compared to traditional television [7]. - The experience business, including theme parks and cruise lines, is highlighted as a unique competitive advantage, contributing significantly to revenue and operating profit [7]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach $102.1 billion in fiscal year 2026, with a growth rate of 8%, and $107.3 billion in fiscal year 2027, with a growth rate of 5% [4]. - Net income is expected to be $10.7 billion in fiscal year 2026, reflecting a -14% change, and $11.9 billion in fiscal year 2027, with a 10% increase [4]. - The report anticipates an EPS of $5.95 for fiscal year 2026 and $6.57 for fiscal year 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17x and 15x [4]. Business Segments - Disney's primary business segments include entertainment (cable networks, D2C streaming, and content production), sports (primarily ESPN), and experiences (theme parks, resorts, and cruise lines) [26][28]. - The entertainment segment remains the largest revenue contributor, while the experience segment is crucial for profit, achieving a profit margin of 28% compared to 11% for entertainment and 16% for sports [28]. Historical Context - Disney's evolution is marked by three key phases: the early animation and theme park development, the revival under Michael Eisner with a focus on animation and cable television, and the recent era of acquisitions and streaming service expansion under Bob Iger [18][22][23]. - The company has successfully integrated acquisitions like Pixar, Marvel, and Lucasfilm, enhancing its IP portfolio and overall market position [23][43].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of governance improvement and overseas expansion for leading companies in the home appliance industry, particularly in the white goods sector [2][11]. Group 1: White Goods - The governance improvements in leading white goods companies are expected to enhance market confidence in sustainable growth, which can lead to a higher valuation [16]. - Midea Group has experienced a significant valuation increase from a PE of 8x to over 20x due to governance reforms and market conditions, despite recent performance challenges [17]. - Haier Smart Home's privatization has led to a notable stock price increase, with a 59% rise following the announcement of its restructuring plan [22][23]. Group 2: Black Goods - Japanese brands like Sony and Samsung are facing significant challenges, with Sony's ET&S department reporting an 8.2% decline in revenue and a 22.6% drop in operating profit [47][49]. - Chinese brands are expected to continue gaining market share globally, with TCL Electronics forming a joint venture with Sony to enhance their market presence [48]. - The Mini LED segment is seeing increased penetration, with a 32.25% online market share, indicating a positive trend for domestic competition [50][56]. Group 3: Small Appliances - The robotic vacuum cleaner market has shown a 10% year-on-year increase in online sales, driven by a low base effect from the previous year and seasonal factors [7]. - The competitive landscape in the small appliance sector is improving, with leading brands like Ecovacs and Roborock increasing their market shares [7]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in white goods companies like Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, Gree Electric, and Hisense Home Appliances due to their stable growth and high dividend yields [7]. - For black goods, TCL Electronics and Hisense Visual are highlighted as beneficiaries of product iteration and improved domestic competition [7]. - In the cleaning appliance sector, Ecovacs and Roborock are expected to see profit margin recovery in 2026, making them attractive investment options [7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" indicating an expected performance that will exceed the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [27]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the Chinese liquor market, particularly in Chengdu, is showing signs of recovery as the Spring Festival approaches, with increased sales velocity for major brands like Guojiao and Wuliangye [6][8]. - The seasoning market is also experiencing improved sales, with brands like Qianhe and Haitian gaining market share, and promotional activities increasing in supermarkets [11][12]. - The report suggests a positive outlook for the liquor sector in 2026, with recommendations for key stocks including Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Kweichow Moutai among others [2][4]. Summary by Sections Chengdu Liquor Market Tracking - Sales velocity for Wuliangye and Guojiao has accelerated as the Spring Festival approaches, with Wuliangye's current batch price at 790 CNY per bottle and Guojiao at 850 CNY per bottle [7][9]. - Feedback from distributors indicates that inventory levels are healthy, with a focus on maintaining good stock levels to avoid excess [8][9]. Chengdu Seasoning Market Tracking - Soy sauce sales have improved year-on-year, with Qianhe and Haitian leading in market share, and promotional activities in supermarkets have increased significantly [11][12]. - The overall health of inventory levels in the seasoning market is noted, with major brands maintaining shorter inventory ages, indicating strong sales performance [11][15]. Investment Recommendations - For the liquor sector, the report recommends stocks such as Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Kweichow Moutai, anticipating a new growth cycle starting in 2026 [2][4]. - In the consumer goods sector, companies like Anjuke Foods and Yanjing Beer are highlighted as having potential for outperforming the market due to new products and channels [2][4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The dairy processing industry in China is entering a new development stage, driven by low raw milk prices, increasing demand for processed dairy products, and supportive government policies [25][41][46] - The per capita consumption of dairy products in China is significantly lower than that of developed countries, indicating substantial growth potential in the market, particularly for processed dairy products like cheese and butter [31][34][40] - The global market for cheese is projected to reach nearly $200 billion by 2025, with significant growth expected in butter and cream markets as well [52][56][59] Summary by Sections 1. Development of Dairy Processing in China - Dairy processing involves complex processes to convert raw milk into high-value products, with a focus on separating and purifying effective components [15] - The current structure of dairy consumption in China is heavily skewed towards liquid milk, with processed products like cheese and butter having a much lower market share compared to developed countries [25][30] 2. Global Perspective on Dairy Products - The market for basic processed dairy products, such as butter, cream, and cheese, is large, and Chinese companies should focus on freshness and customization to differentiate themselves [47][48] - The global cheese market is expected to grow significantly, with Europe being the largest consumer market, driven by demand in the food service sector [52][53] 3. Domestic Expansion of Dairy Processing - Over 20 dairy companies are currently expanding or building new processing lines, with an expected increase in raw milk processing capacity of over 300,000 tons from 2026 to 2027 [25] - The long-term competition in the dairy processing industry will hinge on resource allocation, technology, and distribution channels, with leading companies likely to maintain a competitive edge [25][46] 4. Government Support and Market Trends - The Chinese government is actively promoting the development of dairy processing, with policies aimed at increasing the consumption of processed dairy products [41][45] - The trend towards higher consumption of processed dairy products aligns with changing consumer habits, particularly among younger generations [40][41]