Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for multiple companies within the AI hardware industry, including Lixun Precision, Northern Huachuang, and others, with specific target prices set for each [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights the transition of AI from perception-based to generative AI, moving towards Agentic AI and Physical AI, as stated by NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang during the GTC conference [15]. - NVIDIA's new distributed inference service library, NVIDIA Dynamo, significantly enhances performance, achieving a 25-fold increase compared to the previous Hopper architecture [27]. - The anticipated demand for NVIDIA's Blackwell architecture is projected to reach 3.6 million units in 2025, indicating a robust growth trajectory for AI hardware [19]. Summary by Sections Section 1: NVIDIA's Transition to Agentic AI & Physical AI - Jensen Huang announced the evolution of AI technologies at the GTC conference, emphasizing the shift towards more advanced AI models [15]. - The scaling law for AI development is described as hyper-accelerated, focusing on pre-training, post-training, and testing time expansions [15]. Section 2: AI Models and Applications - The report discusses the increasing computational demands of AI models, with NVIDIA's Dynamo library optimizing inference processes to maximize token revenue [23][25]. - The performance of the Grace Blackwell NVLink72 chip is highlighted, showing a 25-fold improvement in efficiency when using the Dynamo service [27]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the rapid development of AI models and applications will benefit the AI hardware supply chain, with specific companies identified as key players in this growth [5]. - The introduction of new NVIDIA chips, such as Blackwell Ultra and Vera Rubin, is expected to further enhance AI processing capabilities, with significant performance metrics outlined [28][33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ping An Good Doctor (01833.HK) with a current price of HKD 7.71 and a fair value of HKD 9.42 [3]. Core Views - The company has shown continuous improvement in operations, achieving a revenue of RMB 4.808 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, and has turned profitable with a net profit of RMB 0.81 billion [9][24]. - The report highlights the company's strategic collaboration with the Ping An Group, enhancing its healthcare and elderly care ecosystem, which has positively impacted both its F-end (individual) and B-end (corporate) businesses [9][10]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023A: RMB 4.674 billion - 2024A: RMB 4.808 billion - 2025E: RMB 5.421 billion - 2026E: RMB 6.143 billion - 2027E: RMB 7.008 billion - Revenue growth rates: -24.7% (2023A), 2.9% (2024A), 12.8% (2025E), 13.3% (2026E), 14.1% (2027E) [2][26]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023A: -RMB 0.323 billion - 2024A: RMB 0.081 billion - 2025E: RMB 0.133 billion - 2026E: RMB 0.200 billion - 2027E: RMB 0.274 billion - Adjusted net profit for 2025E: RMB 0.218 billion, 2026E: RMB 0.290 billion, 2027E: RMB 0.371 billion [2][26]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: -0.15 - 2024A: 0.04 - 2025E: 0.06 - 2026E: 0.09 - 2027E: 0.13 [2][26]. - **Gross Margin**: - 2023A: 32.3% - 2024A: 31.7% - 2025E: 32.1% - 2026E: 32.4% - 2027E: 32.4% [2][26]. Business Segment Performance - **F-end Business**: - Revenue in 2024 reached RMB 2.417 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, with a decrease in paid user numbers by 5.7% to 24.8 million [10][11]. - **B-end Business**: - Revenue grew by 32.7% to RMB 1.432 billion, with paid user numbers increasing by 13% to 580,000, driven by the rapid expansion of corporate health management services [11][12]. - **Healthcare Services**: - Revenue increased by 4.9% to RMB 2.169 billion, with a gross margin of 43.3% [14][19]. - **Health Services**: - Revenue decreased by 7.6% to RMB 2.356 billion, with a gross margin of 21.3% [16][19]. - **Elderly Care Services**: - Revenue surged by 413.5% to RMB 0.283 billion, with a gross margin of 29.1% [19][20]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve double-digit revenue growth in 2025-2026, with adjusted net profits projected at RMB 2.18 billion and RMB 2.90 billion respectively [22][24]. - The report suggests that the company will continue to enhance operational efficiency and expand its customer base in both F-end and B-end segments, which will further drive profitability [22][24].

Group 1 - Industry Investment Rating: Buy [2] - Core Viewpoint: The report focuses on the valuation enhancement of overseas investment banks driven by regulatory easing and economic recovery, highlighting the significant increase in price-to-book (PB) ratios for major banks like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs from 2020 to 2024 [6][31] - The report indicates that the valuation premium for investment banks typically occurs during the initiation phase of regulatory easing cycles, which is accompanied by economic recovery and industry prosperity, driving profit expansion and valuation uplift [6][31] Group 2 - The report outlines that the valuation enhancement of overseas investment banks is catalyzed by regulatory easing, with significant liquidity release and optimization of capital efficiency leading to increased profitability in investment banking operations [6][31] - It anticipates further regulatory relaxation in the Trump 2.0 era, which could benefit various sectors including banking, asset management, cryptocurrency, and the M&A market, enhancing transaction volumes and market activity [6][31] - Investment recommendations include focusing on leading brokerage firms that are likely to benefit from M&A catalysts and favorable policies, such as China Galaxy, CITIC Securities, and Huatai Securities [6][31] Group 3 - The report provides a comparative analysis of the PB-ROE valuation framework among representative investment banks from China, the US, Germany, and Japan, indicating that US and Chinese banks exhibit higher valuation premiums due to flexible regulations and expansive markets [13][15] - It highlights the historical context of US financial regulatory cycles and their impact on investment bank performance, noting that periods of regulatory easing have consistently correlated with increased excess returns for investment banks [6][31] - The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic conditions and financial regulatory policies in shaping the profitability and valuation of investment banks, with a focus on the positive relationship between ROE growth and valuation expansion [6][31]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [22]. Core Insights - The industrial sector's operating rates are generally higher than the same period last year, with notable increases in various sectors such as benzene-styrene (up 15.9%) and coke enterprises (up 3.6%) [3][4]. - Construction funding availability has improved, but physical workload still needs enhancement, with a national construction site funding availability rate of 57.2% as of March 11 [3]. - The real estate market shows positive trends, with a year-on-year increase in transaction volume in major cities, particularly in second-hand housing [5][6]. - Passenger vehicle retail sales in early March showed a significant year-on-year growth of 14%, indicating a recovery in the automotive sector [6]. - The container throughput at ports remains stable, reflecting steady export activity despite global economic uncertainties [10]. Summary by Sections Industrial Sector - High furnace operating rates reached 80.6%, with a year-on-year increase of 4.0 percentage points [3]. - The operating rate for PTA in Jiangsu and Zhejiang decreased by 6.2 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Construction and Real Estate - The funding availability rate for construction sites improved by 0.75 percentage points from February [3]. - The average daily transaction area for commercial housing in 30 major cities increased by 11.0% year-on-year [5]. Automotive Sector - Retail sales of passenger vehicles in early March increased by 14% year-on-year, with wholesale sales up by 26% [6]. - New energy vehicle sales saw a year-on-year growth of 44% [6]. Transportation and Logistics - Domestic flight execution rates showed a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, while international flights increased by 20.1% [5]. - Container throughput at ports increased by 11.3% year-on-year, indicating robust export activity [7]. Consumer Goods - The home appliance sector maintained relatively high offline sales growth, with air conditioning sales showing resilience despite some online declines [6][7]. - Food prices remained stable, with seasonal trends observed in pork and vegetable prices [9].

Group 1: Market Liquidity Tracking - The IPO scale last week was 2.2 billion, an increase from 1.7 billion the previous week, indicating a rise of 4.71 million [12] - The total margin financing balance increased by 182 billion, reaching approximately 1,917.47 billion [16] - The net inflow of southbound funds from Hong Kong was 576 billion last week, compared to 332 billion the previous week, totaling 908.09 billion for March [22] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - The proportion of financing transactions was 9.65%, up from 9.43% the previous week, indicating a slight increase in market activity [30] - The average daily turnover rate was 1.75%, slightly higher than the previous week's 1.72%, suggesting stable trading sentiment [30] - Institutional funds saw a net outflow of 126 billion, contrasting with a net inflow of 5.31 billion the previous week [31] Group 3: Other Key Indicators - The total value of restricted stock unlocks was 332 billion last week, unchanged from the previous week, with an expected unlock of 122 billion this week [33] - The central bank's open market operations and MLF net withdrawal amounted to 1,917 billion last week, with a reverse repurchase net withdrawal of 2,517 billion [36] - The M2 growth rate remained stable at 7.00%, while M1 saw a slight increase of 0.10% year-on-year [36]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 5.69 CNY and a fair value of 6.88 CNY [3]. Core Views - The company has faced continuous pressure on its performance, with a significant decline in revenue and profit margins. However, it has managed to maintain a stable dividend payout ratio [7][13]. - The company achieved a sales amount of 105.4 billion CNY in 2024, ranking tenth in the industry, indicating a strong market position despite overall market challenges [7][34]. - The company has a stable debt level and has optimized its financing costs, which supports its liquidity and operational capabilities [7][20]. Summary by Sections Performance Analysis - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 599.9 billion CNY, a decrease of 16.8% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.5 billion CNY, down 48.2% year-on-year [7][13]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 2.9 billion CNY, maintaining a payout ratio consistent with previous years [7][13]. - The overall gross margin declined to 14.3%, down 3.8 percentage points from the previous year, primarily due to lower project margins from past acquisitions [7][25]. Sales Analysis - The company achieved a sales amount of 1054 billion CNY in 2024, a decrease of 16.3% year-on-year, but it improved its ranking in the industry to tenth place [7][34]. - The sales area was 3.7 million square meters, with an average selling price of 28,529 CNY per square meter, reflecting a decrease in both area sold and price [34][35]. Land Acquisition and Construction Analysis - The total land acquisition cost was 9.41 billion CNY, with a focus on high-margin projects in first and second-tier cities [7][34]. - The company completed 4.88 million square meters of construction in 2024, a decrease of 5.2% year-on-year [7][21]. Financial Stability - As of the end of 2024, the company had total interest-bearing liabilities of 141.6 billion CNY, a slight decrease of 2% year-on-year, with a financing cost reduced to 5.22% [7][20]. - The company has a pre-sale fund of 87.4 billion CNY, which covers approximately 1.6 years of revenue, providing a buffer for future performance [20][21]. Profitability Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to recover with projected net profits of 11.8 billion CNY and 13.2 billion CNY for 2025 and 2026, respectively, indicating a potential for profit recovery [7][8]. - The fair value estimate of 6.88 CNY per share corresponds to a 16x price-to-earnings ratio for 2025, supporting the "Buy" rating [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 3.257 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 29.49%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 352 million yuan, with a growth of 2.67% [9][10]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its capabilities in low-altitude cloud and commercial aerospace, aiming for a comprehensive development strategy across the entire aerospace industry chain [10][12]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to be 0.87, 1.26, and 1.84 yuan, respectively, with a target price of 69.95 yuan based on an 80x PE valuation for 2025 [15][22]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023A: 2.516 billion yuan - 2024A: 3.257 billion yuan - 2025E: 4.527 billion yuan - 2026E: 6.355 billion yuan - 2027E: 9.045 billion yuan - Growth Rates: 59.5% (2023A to 2024A), 29.5% (2024A to 2025E), 39.0% (2025E to 2026E), 40.4% (2026E to 2027E) [2][19]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023A: 343 million yuan - 2024A: 352 million yuan - 2025E: 475 million yuan - 2026E: 687 million yuan - 2027E: 1.002 billion yuan - Growth Rates: 41.1% (2023A to 2024A), 2.7% (2024A to 2025E), 35.1% (2025E to 2026E), 44.6% (2026E to 2027E) [2][19]. - **EBITDA Forecast**: - 2023A: 556 million yuan - 2024A: 694 million yuan - 2025E: 1.273 billion yuan - 2026E: 1.721 billion yuan - 2027E: 2.308 billion yuan [2]. Business Strategy and Development - The company is implementing a "1+2+N+M" strategy for low-altitude capabilities, which includes building a "Star Map Low-altitude Cloud" and establishing two low-altitude experimental fields [12]. - The company is expanding its business into the commercial aerospace sector, enhancing its satellite application capabilities and developing upstream satellite constellation operations [13][14]. - The company is focusing on various sectors, including special fields, government services, meteorology, aerospace control, enterprise energy, and online services, with significant projected growth in each area [15][19][21]. Valuation and Market Position - The report compares the company with peers in the digital earth sector, highlighting its competitive advantages in data acquisition and processing capabilities [22]. - The company is expected to benefit from the expansion of digital earth applications and its proactive approach in low-altitude economy and commercial aerospace markets [15][22].

Group 1 - The report highlights the advantages of the Artificial Intelligence Industry Index, which includes purity by selecting stocks based on AI revenue proportion, growth by adjusting market capitalization according to growth indicators, and comprehensiveness by covering various sectors with a weight distribution of 55% for computing power and 45% for application [3][24][29] - The report indicates that the past two years have seen a mismatch in cycles between China and the US, but with improved overseas liquidity and policy support, the trend of pressure on RMB assets is expected to reverse, making Chinese assets relatively attractive in the global market [3][33][37] - The launch of DeepSeek is expected to shift the focus of companies in the industry from thematic speculation to performance, potentially enhancing the growth style in technology sectors [3][40] Group 2 - The Artificial Intelligence Industry Index has shown a cumulative return of 45.0% since its inception in 2015, with an annualized return of 3.8%, outperforming major broad-based indices like the CSI 300 and the Shanghai Composite Index [5][10][22] - The index's annualized volatility is reported at 38.8%, which is higher than the 21.2% of the CSI 300 and 14.8% of the Shanghai Composite Index, indicating a higher risk profile [10][11][22] - The report emphasizes that the index's Sharpe ratio of 0.17 is significantly higher than that of the major broad-based indices, suggesting better risk-adjusted returns [11][22] Group 3 - The index's stock selection strategy focuses on companies with a higher proportion of AI revenue, ensuring that only those deeply engaged in AI are included, which enhances the index's sensitivity to industry growth trends [24][25] - The growth strategy prioritizes companies with actual performance and better marginal prosperity trends, with a significant portion of constituent stocks concentrated in the 20-50 billion range, indicating a focus on mid-cap companies [25][27] - The index's comprehensive approach spans various sectors, avoiding over-concentration in any single sub-industry, thus providing a balanced reflection of the overall AI industry [29][31] Group 4 - The report notes a policy turning point in China, with a GDP growth target of around 5% and a deficit target of 4%, which aligns with market expectations and indicates a more flexible monetary policy environment [33][35] - The anticipated easing of monetary policy and the potential for foreign capital to return to A-shares are expected to support the growth of core assets in the Chinese market [37][38] - The introduction of DeepSeek is projected to strengthen the performance of technology growth styles, as it may lead to a widening performance gap between growth and value sectors [40][42]

Core Insights - The report highlights that the new birth policy in Hohhot exceeds expectations, which could benefit the children's clothing sector if similar policies are adopted in more regions. It suggests focusing on leading domestic children's clothing brands like Semir Apparel, whose Balabala brand holds a dominant market share in the children's clothing market [6][7]. - The report anticipates a positive impact on the apparel and home textile sectors from the upcoming press conference by the State Council on March 17, which will discuss measures to boost consumption. Companies expected to perform well include Semir Apparel, Weigao Medical, Biyinlefen, Baoxini, and Anta Sports [6][7]. - The textile and light industry indices showed strong performance, with the textile and apparel sector (SW) rising by 4.64% during the period from March 10 to March 14, ranking 4th among 31 primary industries [17][18]. Industry Performance - The report indicates that the textile and apparel sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.39%, and the ChiNext Index, which increased by 1.08% during the same period [17]. - The textile and apparel sector's latest PE (TTM) is reported at 21.08, with historical highs and lows of 63.14 and 14.98, respectively, indicating a relatively attractive valuation compared to historical performance [21][22]. Company Analysis - Semir Apparel is highlighted as a key player in the children's clothing market, benefiting from favorable policies and expected consumption growth [6][7]. - The report provides a detailed valuation and financial analysis of various companies, including Biyinlefen, Anta Sports, and Baoxini, with recommendations to buy based on their projected earnings and market positions [7][8]. - The report notes that leading companies in the home textile sector, such as Mercury Home Textiles and Fuanna, are expected to benefit from a stabilizing real estate market and increasing wedding demand in 2025 [6][7].

2. 第二种情形，如果盈利修复证伪，如 2020 年 Q4、2022 年 Q4，则 估值抬升行情之后——市场见顶调整，并大幅杀估值。 [Table_Page] 投资策略|专题报告 2025 年 3 月 16 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 如何看待港股抬估值行情后续 ——港股&海外周聚焦（3 月第二期） [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： 1. 第一种情形，如果盈利修复证实，如 2016 年 Q1，则抬估值行情之 后——估值高位波动，实际盈利推动市场主升浪，且上行行情幅度更 大、持续时间更长、回撤更小。 本文如无特别说明，数据来源均为 Wind, Bloomberg 数据 | [分析师： Table_Author刘晨明 ] | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260524020001 | | SFC CE No. BVH021 | | | 010-59136616 | | | | liuchenming@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 许向真 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260524030005 | | | xuxiangzhen@gf.com. ...