据中采咨询（下同），3 月制造业 PMI 环比上行 0.3 个点至 50.5，景气连续 2 个月环比改善。 15 个细分制造业中，位于景气扩张区间的行业个数为 8 个，环比增加 1 个；其中，有色冶炼行业景气由扩张将 至收缩区间，通用设备、计算机通信电子景气回升至景气扩张。 [Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2025 年 4 月 1 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 广发宏观 3 月中观景气度分布特征分析 [Tabl e_Author] 分析师： 郭磊 分析师： 王丹 SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 SFC CE.no: BNY419 SAC 执证号：S0260521040001 021-38003572 guolei@gf.com.cn bjwangdan@gf.com.cn 请注意，王丹并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ⚫ 3 月制造业 PMI 环比继续上行 0.3 个点至 50.5。中观景气面同步改善，位于景气扩张区间的行业个数由 7 个增 加至 8 个，有色行业景气降至收缩区间，通用 ...

[Table_Page] 行业专题研究|建筑装饰 2025 年 4 月 1 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 建筑装饰行业 | | | | 天府之国、战略腹地，需求多点开花、工程大有可为 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Tabl 分析师： | 耿鹏智 | 分析师： 乔钢 | | 分析师： | 尉凯旋 | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260524010001 | | SAC 执证号：S0260524100001 | | SAC 执证号：S0260520070006 | | | | | SFC CE.no: BVX103 | | | | | 021-38003620 | | 021-38003769 | | 021-38003576 | | | gengpengzhi@gf.com.cn | | qiaogang@gf.com.cn | | yukaixuan@gf.com.cn | | | 请注意，耿鹏智,尉凯旋并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | | | | | [Table_ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to industry downturns, but there is anticipation for demand recovery [1][20]. - The company is focusing on core product lines while actively developing new products to maintain its leading position in financial technology [22][24]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 6.581 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.62%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.043 billion yuan, down 26.75% year-on-year [12][19]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to reduced technology investments from financial institutions due to market fluctuations and business transformations [19][20]. - The company has reduced its workforce by 17.2% to 10,927 employees by the end of 2024, which is expected to improve productivity in the coming years [21][12]. Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 0.73 yuan, with a reasonable value estimated at 29.16 yuan per share based on a 40x price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio [26][33]. - Revenue is expected to grow to 6.873 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.4% from 2024 to 2027 [28][32]. Business Segment Analysis - The company is focusing on its core product lines, including wealth technology services, asset management technology services, and risk management platforms, with expected revenue growth in these areas from 2025 to 2027 [27][28]. - The wealth technology service revenue is projected to recover gradually, with expected growth rates of 2%, 5%, and 7% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [26][28].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company [2]. Core Views - The company leverages its rich natural resources and Buddhist heritage to enhance its tourism offerings, aiming to increase visitor stay duration and attract more tourists [9]. - Continuous improvements in transportation infrastructure and the expansion of the cable car system are expected to drive revenue growth [9]. - The company is transitioning into a comprehensive smart tourism enterprise by integrating various business lines, enhancing sales conversion rates [9]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 10.49 billion, 11.13 billion, and 12.17 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 0.4%, 6.2%, and 9.4% [9]. Company Overview - The company is situated in Emei Mountain, a UNESCO World Heritage site, known for its natural beauty and Buddhist culture, attracting millions of visitors annually [15]. - It operates multiple business segments, including ticket sales, cable car services, hotel operations, tea production, and performance arts [18][20]. Industry Analysis - The tourism market is recovering steadily, with a projected increase in domestic travel to 5.615 billion trips in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 14.8% [44]. - Government policies are actively promoting tourism consumption, which is expected to further stimulate demand in the sector [52].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A/Buy-H" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company demonstrates significant advantages as a domestic and international leader, with a recovery in performance and an increase in leverage [1] Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a revenue of CNY 63.79 billion for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.20%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 21.70 billion, up 10.06% year-on-year [11] - The total asset scale reached CNY 1.71 trillion, an increase of 17.71% compared to the previous year [11] - The weighted average ROE for 2024 was 8.09%, with an adjusted leverage ratio of 4.51 times, up by 0.24 [1][13] Business Segment Analysis Investment Business - The self-operated investment income for 2024 was CNY 19.46 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12% [23] - The company has enhanced its product structure and strategy to attract long-term capital into the market [23] Wealth Management - The brokerage business generated a net income of CNY 10.70 billion, a 5% increase year-on-year, with a 12% growth in customer numbers [28][32] - The overseas wealth management product sales and income doubled in 2024 [32] Asset Management - The asset management business achieved an income of CNY 2.32 billion, up 5% year-on-year, while the fund business generated CNY 8.18 billion, a 7% increase [36] - The total asset management scale reached CNY 1.54 trillion, an 11% increase year-on-year [36] Investment Banking - The investment banking segment reported a revenue of CNY 4.16 billion, down 34% year-on-year, but maintained a market share of 22% in domestic equity underwriting [50] - The company completed 55 A-share underwriting projects with a total scale of CNY 70.36 billion, ranking first in the market [52] Capital Intermediation - The capital intermediation income was CNY 8.16 billion, a decrease of 7% year-on-year, with financing and securities lending interest income down 14% [56] Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company is expected to benefit from cyclical recovery and increased market stability, with projected EPS of CNY 1.98 and CNY 2.20 for 2025 and 2026 respectively [60] - The report assigns a reasonable value of CNY 32.93 per share for A-shares and HKD 26.36 for H-shares, maintaining a "Buy" rating for both [60]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company [3]. Core Views - The company is a global leader in resin lenses, with strong technological research and development capabilities leading the industry [1]. - The lens market is expanding, with China's growth rate surpassing the global average [33]. - The company has established a solid position in the optical lens industry, with a focus on lens production and a wide international sales network [14][15]. Financial Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow from 1,561 million RMB in 2022 to 2,817 million RMB in 2026, with a CAGR of 16% [2]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 249 million RMB in 2022 to 638 million RMB in 2026, with a CAGR of 20% [2]. - The EPS is forecasted to rise from 0.58 RMB in 2022 to 1.33 RMB in 2026 [2]. Market Position - The company has achieved a global market share ranking of 5th by sales revenue in 2023, with a sales volume ranking of 2nd [50]. - The company has a diverse customer base and is expanding its domestic market presence [8][14]. - The lens market in China is projected to reach 413 billion RMB by 2024, indicating significant growth potential [37]. Business Model and Strategy - The company employs a C2M (Customer to Manufacturer) model, enhancing product structure optimization and increasing customization business [8]. - Strategic partnerships, such as with GoerTek, aim to enter the smart glasses supply chain, transitioning from traditional lenses to precision electronic components [8]. Operational Efficiency - The company has demonstrated strong operational efficiency, with a gross margin increase from 30.61% in 2018 to 39.16% in 2024 H1 [31]. - The management team is stable and experienced, contributing to the company's robust performance [19].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A/Buy-H" rating for Qingdao Bank, with a current price of 4.25 CNY and a reasonable value of 5.16 CNY, and for H shares, a current price of 3.26 HKD and a reasonable value of 3.96 HKD [2]. Core Views - The report highlights strong performance with revenue, PPOP, and net profit attributable to shareholders growing by 8.2%, 7.1%, and 20.2% year-on-year, respectively, with net interest margin decline narrowing [5][6]. - Key drivers of performance include steady growth in loan and deposit volumes, a marginal reduction in net interest margin, significant growth in non-interest income, and stable asset quality [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, revenue, PPOP, and net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 8.2%, 7.1%, and 20.2% year-on-year, with growth rates showing slight variations compared to previous quarters [5][8]. - Loan growth was 13.5% year-on-year, with deposits increasing by 11.9%, indicating robust support for the real economy [5][8]. - The net interest margin for 2024 was reported at 1.73%, with a slight recovery expected in Q4 [5][8]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio stood at 1.14%, showing improvement from the previous quarter, primarily due to better asset quality in corporate loans [5][8]. - The provision coverage ratio increased to 241.32%, indicating a stable asset quality overall [5][8]. Non-Interest Income - Other non-interest income grew by 35% year-on-year, with investment income contributing significantly to net profit [5][8]. - The report notes a decline in net fee income by 4.9%, impacted by reduced fees in the insurance sector and lower credit card transaction volumes [5][8]. Profitability Forecast - The forecast for net profit growth is 11.53% and 12.07% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with EPS projected at 0.78 CNY and 0.88 CNY [5][8]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 5.47X for 2025 and 4.85X for 2026, with a PB ratio of 0.60X and 0.54X for the same years [5][8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A/Buy-H" rating for the company, with a current price of 6.04 CNY/5.34 HKD and a fair value of 6.64 CNY/5.87 HKD [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the company's net interest margin has stabilized, while other non-interest income has seen significant growth, particularly benefiting from favorable market conditions [5]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, the company's revenue, pre-provision operating profit (PPOP), and net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 1.1%, 3.9%, and 5.6% year-on-year, respectively, showing improvements compared to the first three quarters of 2024 [5][7]. - The net interest margin for 2024 was reported at 1.61%, remaining stable compared to the previous quarters, primarily due to improved funding costs [5]. - Non-interest income surged by 56% year-on-year, with investment income contributing significantly to the net profit, accounting for 36.5% of the total [5]. - The cost-to-income ratio improved, decreasing by 2.08 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting effective cost management strategies [5]. - The asset quality remains robust, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.18% and a provision coverage ratio of 363% as of the end of 2024 [5]. Loan and Deposit Growth - The loan growth rate for 2024 was 5.6%, although there was a decline in loan volume in the fourth quarter, attributed to debt resolution impacts [5]. - The company has increased its focus on supporting new productive capacities, with manufacturing loans rising by 104 billion CNY, representing 27.8% of total loan growth [5]. Profitability Forecast - The report forecasts a net profit growth of 3.11% and 3.70% for the years 2025 and 2026, respectively, with earnings per share (EPS) projected at 1.02 CNY and 1.06 CNY [5].

Group 1 - Industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] - The report highlights the launch of NVIDIA's CPO switches, Quantum-X Photonics and Spectrum-X Photonics, aimed at meeting low power consumption needs for large-scale networking [13][17] - The CPO technology improves energy efficiency by 3.5 times, network resilience by 10 times, and reduces deployment time by 1.3 times, while also lowering total cost of ownership (TCO) [17][24] Group 2 - Quantum-X Photonics switch features 144 ports with a total bandwidth of 115.2T, utilizing liquid cooling for effective thermal management [18][27] - The report notes that NVIDIA's CPO switches will initially be used in its own network clusters, with cloud vendors expected to purchase a limited number for testing [31] - The CPO technology is positioned as a significant trend in optical network connections, offering advantages in low power consumption, low latency, and cost [31]

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for several companies in the agriculture sector, including 温氏股份 (Wens Foodstuffs Group), 牧原股份 (Muyuan Foods), 立华股份 (Lihua Agricultural), 唐人神 (Tianren Shen), and 邦基科技 (Bangji Technology) [4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the significant support from national policies for the development of smart agriculture, highlighting the promising future of AI-enabled agricultural practices [2][25]. - AI is transforming traditional agriculture into standardized production through applications in crop monitoring, precision agriculture, agricultural robotics, and data analysis [10][25]. - The report identifies key investment opportunities in AI breeding, AI planting, and AI agricultural service providers, suggesting specific companies to watch [2][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy Promotion of Smart Agriculture - The integration of AI, IoT, big data, and cloud computing is fundamentally changing traditional agricultural production models [25]. - The national action plan aims for an agricultural production informationization rate of 32% by the end of 2028 [25]. - Recent policies emphasize the importance of technology in enhancing agricultural productivity and efficiency [27]. 2. Breeding: AI-Driven Intelligent Design - AI tools are enhancing breeding efficiency by analyzing vast datasets to predict genotype-phenotype associations [31]. - International agricultural giants are leveraging AI for rapid development of new crop varieties [31]. - Domestic advancements in AI breeding are being made through collaborations between research institutions and tech companies [31]. 3. Planting Production: AI-Assisted Decision Making - AI supports intelligent decision-making and automated farming practices, leading to increased crop yields [25]. - The report notes the rapid development and application of AI technologies in large-scale farms in Europe and the US [25]. - Domestic policies are fostering an environment conducive to the adoption of AI in planting practices [25]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in AI breeding, such as 隆平高科 (Longping High-Tech), and AI planting, such as 北大荒 (Beidahuang) [2][4]. - It also highlights AI agricultural service providers like 托普云农 (TopCloud) as potential investment opportunities [2][4].