[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|航空机场 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 航空机场行业 11 月数据点评：淡季不淡，供需同比增速 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2025-12-16 | 双升 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -20% -11% -2% 6% 15% 24% 12/24 02/25 05/25 07/25 09/25 12/25 航空机场 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]许可 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260523120004 | | | SFC CE No. BUY008 | | 0755-88285832 | | | xuke@gf.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 陈宇 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260524100002 | | | SFC CE No. BLW740 | | 021-38003771 | | | | shchenyu@gf.com ...

Xm l [Table_Page] 跟踪分析|商贸零售 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 批零社服行业 11 月社零同比+1.3%，关注扩内需战略拉动 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2025-12-16 shluoyi@gf.com.cn 972918116公共联系人2025-12-16 00:21:06 1 / 7 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 ⚫ 2025 年 11 月社零同比增长 1.3%。据国家统计局，25 年 11 月我国社 零总额 4.4 万亿元/YOY+1.3%，增速较 25 年 10 月下降 1.6pct。其中， 除汽车外社零总额 3.9 万亿元/YOY+2.5%。分地区看，11 月城镇社零 总额 3.8 万亿元/YOY+1.0%，乡村社零总额 0.6 万亿元/YOY+2.8%。 分类型看，11 月商品零售 3.8 万亿元/YOY+1.0%，餐饮收入 0.6 万亿 元/YOY+3.2%，增速较 25 年 10 月分别下降 1.8pct、0.6pct。 ⚫ 分品类看，粮油食品/饮料零售额 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of "globalization and AI+" in advancing high-quality development in the defense and military industry, highlighting the need for modernization and efficiency improvements in military systems [5][30][34] - The investment strategy focuses on balancing value and growth, with traditional sectors entering an S-curve evolution phase while new demands and replacements coexist [5][30] Section Summaries 1. Current Development Stage from the S-Curve Perspective - The defense and military industry is in a growth phase, with traditional sectors experiencing rapid development during the previous five-year plan, but not yet entering a slowdown [16][26] - The S-curve model indicates that the industry lifecycle includes multiple product lifecycles, with the current focus on extending product lifespans through innovation [23][24] 2. S-Curve Cycle Expansion - Global military trade remains robust, emphasizing the importance of lifecycle management from equipment to services [9][18] - The report anticipates that the demand for large aircraft and low-altitude economic activities will accelerate due to supportive policies [9][28] 3. S-Curve Cycle Evolution - Supply chain reforms are crucial for reducing costs and complexity, enhancing the focus on maintenance and repair services [9][33] - The integration of unmanned systems and intelligent technologies is expected to drive significant advancements in military capabilities [9][51] 4. New Cycle of the S-Curve: Emerging Industries - The report identifies commercial aerospace, AI, controllable nuclear fusion, quantum information, and deep-sea technology as key areas for future growth [9][57][65] - The acceleration of technological advancements and policy support is expected to unlock new market opportunities in these sectors [9][58] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that align with the evolving S-curve, particularly those involved in supply chain reform, maintenance, and unmanned systems [5][30] - Specific companies highlighted for investment include 航发动力, 中航高科, and 国睿科技, among others, which are positioned to benefit from these trends [6][9]

[Table_Page] 投资策略报告|电力设备 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 锂电行业 2026 年投资策略 储能需求驱动周期反转，电池和材料迎来新机遇 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2025-12-15 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]陈子坤 SAC 执证号：S0260513080001 010-59136690 chenzikun@gf.com.cn 分析师： 陈昕 SAC 执证号：S0260522080008 SFC CE No. BWV823 010-59136699 gfchenxin@gf.com.cn 分析师： 黄思悦 SAC 执证号：S0260525070002 0755-23608197 huangsiyue@gf.com.cn -20% -6% 8% 22% 36% 50% 12/24 02/25 05/25 07/25 09/25 12/25 电力设备 沪深300 请注意，陈子坤,黄思悦并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员 会的注册持牌人，不可 ...

[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2025 年 12 月 15 日 证券研究报告 有效需求不足凸显，政策加力空间打开 [Table _Author] 分析师： 郭磊 SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 SFC CE.no: BNY419 021-38003572 guolei@gf.com.cn [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： 1从 11 月经济数据来看，有效需求不足的情况依然显著。供给端大致平稳，工业增加值同比 4.8%，较前值小幅 放缓 0.1 个点，基本可以解释为基数变化带来的波动；需求端分化明显，出口增速反弹，偏弱依旧在内需：固 定资产投资同比大致持平前值-11%左右的低位；房地产销售面积降幅略有收窄，但销售额同比降幅扩大；社零 同比显著放缓至 1.3%。 2025 年 11 月工业增加值同比 4.8%，略低于前值的 4.9%。服务业生产指数同比 4.2%，低于前值的 4.6%。出 口同比 5.9%，高于前值的-1.1%。固定资产投资单月同比-11.1%，大致持平于前值的-11.2%。社零同比 1.3%， 低于前值的 2.9%。房地产销售面积同比-17.1%，高于前值的 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes two main investment directions for 2026: recovery sectors focusing on profit inflection points and growth sectors targeting high revenue increases [4][19][20] Recovery Sectors - The duty-free sector is showing signs of recovery with favorable policies enhancing consumption, including expanded product categories and improved shopping convenience [4][19] - The hotel industry is expected to see a gradual improvement in RevPAR, with business and leisure demand stabilizing, indicating a potential operational turning point in Q4 or next year [4][19] - The tourism sector remains resilient despite macroeconomic pressures, with increasing travel volumes and government initiatives aimed at boosting consumption in various travel themes [4][19] Growth Sectors - The beauty industry is experiencing intensified competition, with a focus on channel value reconstruction and brand establishment [4][20] - The gold and jewelry sector is witnessing a recovery, driven by new product launches and an increasing focus on high-end market competition [4][20] - The cross-border e-commerce sector is expected to rebound, supported by stable policies and a decrease in shipping costs, with strong demand from the U.S. market [4][20] Key Company Recommendations - For duty-free, China Duty Free Group is recommended for its long-term growth potential, with attention to Wangfujing and Zhuhai Duty Free Group [4] - In the hotel sector, companies like Jinjiang Hotels, Atour, and Huazhu are highlighted for their growth prospects [4] - In tourism, companies such as Three Gorges Tourism and Changbai Mountain are suggested for monitoring acquisition and new business developments [4] - The beauty sector includes recommendations for brands like Maogeping and Proya, focusing on channel strategies [4] - For gold and jewelry, companies like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Pu Gold are recommended for their market positioning [4] - In retail, companies like Yonghui Supermarket and Xinhua Department Store are noted for their recovery potential [4]

Core Insights - The textile and apparel industry is experiencing a mixed performance, with a recommendation to focus on leading companies benefiting from positive trends in orders and raw material prices [5][12] - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in companies like New Australia Co., Nike's upstream supply chain, and various leading brands expected to recover in performance next year [5][12] - The light industry sector shows resilience, with recommendations for companies in home textiles and new consumer businesses that are expected to grow significantly [5][12] Textile and Apparel Industry Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.34%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 2.74% during the period from December 8 to December 12, 2025. The textile and apparel sector (SW) declined by 2.81%, ranking 25th among 31 primary industries [12][13] - The report indicates that the textile and apparel industry's latest PE (TTM) is 20.01X, with historical highs and lows of 57.80X and 14.44X respectively [16][17] Textile and Apparel Export Data Tracking - In November 2025, China's textile exports increased by 1.02% year-on-year, while apparel exports decreased by 10.98% [5] - Vietnam's textile exports in November 2025 amounted to $2.97 billion, down 2.72% year-on-year, with a total export of $35.9 billion for the first 11 months, reflecting a 6.7% increase [5] Light Industry Manufacturing Market Review - The light industry sector's performance remains relatively stable, with external factors like U.S. real estate transactions expected to improve conditions for leading companies [5] - Recommendations include focusing on companies like Jiangxin Home, Yuanfei Pet, and Yiyi Co., which are expected to benefit from the ongoing recovery in the export market [5] Key Company Valuation and Financial Analysis - The report provides detailed financial metrics for key companies, including EPS, PE ratios, and ROE, indicating a generally favorable outlook for companies like Mercury Home Textiles and Anta Sports [6][25] - Notable companies with strong buy ratings include Mercury Home Textiles (closing price: CNY 20.18, target price: CNY 23.08) and Anta Sports (closing price: HKD 81.80, target price: HKD 105.00) [6][25]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the banking sector, indicating an expected performance that will exceed the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [41]. Core Insights - The report discusses the concept of "asset scarcity," which is explained through two perspectives: the mismatch between supply and demand for funds, and the insufficient supply of quality assets that meet investors' risk and return preferences. It argues that the traditional supply-demand imbalance does not adequately explain the phenomenon of asset scarcity [5][13]. - The report identifies three dimensions of asset scarcity: macro, meso, and micro. It emphasizes that the bond market is primarily concerned with the micro-level aspects of asset scarcity [5][16]. - To alleviate macro-level asset scarcity, the report suggests increasing credit issuance and fiscal efforts, enhancing liquidity management by the central bank, and guiding non-bank funds back to banks to lower residents' yield expectations on non-bank assets [20][23]. - At the meso level, the report highlights the importance of fiscal and monetary growth rates, suggesting that credit and fiscal efforts should be strengthened while avoiding capital idling [23][24]. - The micro-level analysis focuses on the expectations of institutions regarding asset-liability expansion and actual expansion, noting that there is often a mismatch between liabilities and suitable assets [25][29]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Asset Scarcity Exploration - The report explores why the market has shifted its focus away from "asset scarcity," attributing this to a lack of significant asset-liability gaps in the real economy and the nature of interest rates as contractual [5][13]. - It discusses the macroeconomic factors influencing asset scarcity, including the expected decline in bond market yields and economic forecasts [16][18]. Section 2: Financial Institutions' Asset-Liability Management - The report provides a detailed analysis of financial institutions' liabilities, emphasizing the need for a balance between asset expansion and government debt supply [25][29]. - It projects that by 2026, the demand for government bonds will increase by 1.5 trillion yuan compared to 2025, indicating a growing need for asset allocation in the banking sector [25][29]. Section 3: Insurance Sector Analysis - The report estimates that the insurance sector will face a net increase in asset-liability mismatch of 1.28 trillion yuan by 2026, driven by the expiration of high-yield non-standard investments and continuous growth in premium income [30][29]. Section 4: Expected Returns and Market Dynamics - The report highlights the compression of asset-liability yield spreads due to rigid liabilities and flexible asset yields, which contributes to the practical aspect of asset scarcity for enterprises and theoretical scarcity for residents [35][29]. - It suggests that banks should lower the rigid costs of liabilities and guide non-bank entities to adjust their yield expectations [35][29].

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|银行 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 跨境流动性跟踪 20251214 出口韧性累积蓄水池，联储鸽派降息助推资金回流 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [联系人： Table_Contacts] 李文洁 021-38003644 gfliwenjie@gf.com.cn 972918116公共联系人2025-12-14 21:42:46 1 / 24 [分析师： Table_Author]倪军 -10% -3% 4% 10% 17% 24% 12/24 02/25 05/25 07/25 09/25 12/25 银行 沪深300 | | SAC 执证号：S0260518020004 | | --- | --- | | | 021-38003646 | | | nijun@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 林虎 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260525040004 | | | SFC CE No. BWK411 | | | 021-38003643 | | | gflinhu@gf.com.cn | 请注意，倪军并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need to stabilize the real estate market, with the central government updating its stance to "focus on stabilizing the real estate market" during the recent economic work meeting, marking a shift from previous passive responses to the industry's downturn [5][16][19] - The report indicates a significant decline in transaction volumes, with new home sales in 50 cities down by 10.1% month-on-month and 33% year-on-year, while second-hand home sales also saw a decline of 1.2% month-on-month and 31.7% year-on-year [5][11][20] - The new housing supply has decreased, with a 7.4% drop in new housing area launched, reflecting weak market demand and a declining trend in market prices [5][11][20] - Land supply has increased for five consecutive weeks, with a total land transfer revenue of 112.83 billion yuan, indicating a 28.1% rise in supply area but stable transaction volumes [5][11][20] - The report notes a significant drop in the performance of the real estate sector, with a 2.6% decline in the SW real estate index, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.5 percentage points [5][11][20] Policy Insights - The central government has reiterated its commitment to "risk prevention" as a core principle, with a focus on controlling inventory and optimizing supply, while local governments are continuing to implement existing policies related to housing funds and purchase subsidies [5][20] - The report highlights various local policy initiatives aimed at stabilizing the market, including subsidies for first-time homebuyers and measures to support the purchase of new homes [20][21] Market Performance - The report provides a detailed analysis of the performance of key companies in the real estate sector, with several companies rated as "Buy" based on their financial metrics and market positioning [6] - The report includes a valuation table for major real estate companies, indicating their latest stock prices, reasonable values, and key financial ratios such as EPS and PE [6] C-REITs Insights - The C-REITs sector has shown a slight decline, with the comprehensive yield index down by 0.12%, while the market remains stable with an average turnover rate of 0.37% [5][11][20] - The report notes that certain segments within the C-REITs market, such as data centers and rental housing, have seen positive performance, indicating potential investment opportunities [5][11][20]