Core Insights - The shipbuilding industry is entering a recovery phase, with a significant increase in new orders for bulk carriers and oil tankers, indicating a demand acceleration [5][13][34] - The overall new ship orders in November showed a year-on-year growth of 3.5% in CGT, 37.6% in DWT, and 20.1% in monetary value, marking the first positive growth of the year [5][13] - The demand for Capesize bulk carriers is expected to rise due to the commencement of the Simandou iron ore project, which will significantly impact global shipping patterns [34][35] Section Summaries 1. Recent Updates: Recovery in Bulk Carrier and Oil Tanker Orders - November saw the first year-on-year increase in new ship orders, primarily driven by bulk carriers and oil tankers, with significant growth rates observed [5][13] - The total new ship orders reached 116 million DWT, with a notable acceleration in the second half of the year due to improved market conditions [5][13] 2. Bulk Carriers: Changes in Iron Ore Shipping Dynamics - The Simandou iron ore project is expected to alter the shipping landscape, with its production capacity potentially accounting for 10% of China's iron ore imports in 2024 [34][35] - The demand for Capesize vessels is projected to increase significantly, with estimates suggesting a need for an additional 22-23 Capesize ships in the near term [35] 3. Oil Tankers: Long-term Supply Shortages and Renewal Demand - The average age of the oil tanker fleet exceeds 14 years, with a significant portion of the fleet being over 20 years old, leading to a long-term supply shortage [65][71] - The current order book for oil tankers is insufficient to meet the renewal needs of aging vessels, indicating a tightening supply situation [65][71] 4. Container Ships: Changes Under Pressure, Support for Feeder Vessels - The container ship market has been influenced by geopolitical factors, with the Red Sea conflict causing rerouting and impacting effective capacity [79][82] - The demand for feeder vessels remains strong despite uncertainties surrounding the full restoration of Red Sea shipping routes [79][82] 5. LNG Ships: Natural Gas Capacity Expansion Driving New Orders - The expansion of natural gas production capacity is expected to drive an increase in new LNG ship orders, reflecting a growing demand for cleaner energy transportation [5][19]

[Table_Page] 公司深度研究|软件与服务 证券研究报告 | [Table_Title] 【 广 发 计 算 机 | & 海 外 】 聚 水 潭 | | --- | --- | | （06687.HK） | | 进入盈利释放期的稀缺 SaaS 公司、海外 与 AI 应用助力突破远期天花板 核心观点：（除特殊说明，本报告货币单位为人民币，参考汇率 1 港元=0.91 人民币） 风险提示。市场竞争加剧；客户支出意愿下滑；电商行业格局变化。 盈利预测： | [Table_ 单位 Finance] :人民币百万元 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主营收入 | 697 | 910 | 1,141 | 1,391 | 1,658 | | 增长率（ % ） | 33.3% | 30.5% | 25.4% | 21.9% | 19.2% | | EBITDA | -238 | -50 | 90 | 274 | 446 | | 归母净利润 | -487 | 12 | 74 | 352 | ...

[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2025 年 12 月 11 日 证券研究报告 广发宏观 [Table_Title] 中央经济工作会议精神的十个关注点 | 分析师： [Tabl | 郭磊 | | --- | --- | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 | | | SFC CE.no: BNY419 | | | 021-38003572 | | | guolei@gf.com.cn | [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： 中央经济工作会议 12 月 10 日至 11 日在北京举行1。关于会议精神，我们学习理解如下： ⚫ 关注点一：五个新"必须"。2024 年底中央经济工作会议曾提出五个"必须"，其中"必须统筹好总供给和总需求 的关系"、"必须统筹好提升质量和做大总量的关系"等对 2025 年的宏观政策框架影响深远，包括"反内卷"、广 义财政扩张等。2025 年底的中央经济工作会议指出"通过实践，我们对做好新形势下经济工作又有了新的认识 和体会"，并在此基础上提出五个新"必须"。我们理解"必须充分挖掘经济潜能"对应要弥补有效需求不足，释放 内需空间；" ...

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is expected to experience a reduction in production capacity and an improvement in quality, leading to stabilization in prices and profits in 2026 [1] Group 1: Supply - A new capacity replacement policy is set to be implemented, which is expected to continue reducing crude steel production in 2026 [6] - The capacity replacement policy will increase the reduction ratio in non-key areas to at least 1.5:1, enhancing long-term capacity constraints [14][18] - The overall crude steel production is anticipated to decrease year-on-year due to differentiated production restrictions and proactive production control by enterprises [6][28] Group 2: Demand - Investment stability and domestic demand expansion are expected to lead to a recovery in steel demand in 2026 [6] - The construction sector is projected to see a recovery in fixed asset investment, supported by policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [36] - Manufacturing sectors such as automotive, machinery, and home appliances are expected to maintain growth in steel demand due to supportive policies [6][57] Group 3: Costs - Steel cost pressures are expected to continue easing in 2026, with iron ore supply slightly increasing and demand stabilizing [6][61] - The global iron ore supply is projected to see a slight increase, with the four major mining companies expected to have a production growth rate of about 1.8% in 2026 [66] - The overall balance between iron ore supply and demand is expected to remain weak, with prices anticipated to fluctuate downward [6][61] Group 4: Prices and Profits - The reduction in production and improvement in quality are expected to help stabilize steel prices and profits in 2026 [6] - Demand for flat steel is expected to remain stronger than for long steel, with policies aimed at further tapping into consumption potential [6] - The anticipated decline in crude steel production, primarily driven by loss-making enterprises and policy-induced reductions, will contribute to a mild improvement in the steel supply-demand landscape [6] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the ordinary steel sector and those involved in restructuring and integration, such as Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel [6] - In the special steel sector, high-performance steel products are encouraged, with companies like Jiuli Special Materials and Yongjin Co. expected to benefit from policy support [6][7]

Core Insights - The key focus for 2026 in the humanoid robot industry is on scaling production, with significant orders already placed by major manufacturers like UBTECH, which has reached 1.3 billion CNY in orders for humanoid robots in 2025 [4][51] - The report emphasizes three main lines of focus: the certainty premium of the T-chain (screw + reducer), new technological changes in the T-chain (dexterous hands + new motor technologies), and the valuation uplift of major manufacturers as they enter mass delivery phases [4][13][35] Market Review - The report highlights that since 2022, the underlying logic of each major market rally has been product advancements, with the humanoid robot sector attracting increasing attention and investment [21][22] - In 2023, market leadership has shifted based on marginal changes, with different segments leading at various times, such as sensors and lightweight designs [24][27] Major Manufacturers - Tesla is identified as the industry benchmark, with its technological changes directly influencing domestic solutions. The anticipated release of the Optimus V3 in Q1 2026 is expected to significantly impact production capabilities [35][36] - Figure has launched its third-generation robot, Figure 03, which is designed for household applications and aims for mass production of 100,000 units over the next four years [39][41] - Xiaopeng has set a target for mass production of its IRON robot by the end of 2026, emphasizing its dual capabilities in R&D and manufacturing [45][49] Supply Chain Dynamics - The report discusses the clarity in the supply chain for screws and reducers, with a focus on the planetary roller screw as a core component for humanoid robots, which is expected to see increased demand [57][62] - New technologies such as GaN (Gallium Nitride) are highlighted as significant advancements that could enhance efficiency and reduce heat generation in humanoid robots [13][18] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on companies like Hengli Hydraulic and Zhejiang Rongtai for screws and reducers, and recommends attention to companies involved in dexterous hands and sensors, such as Ampelron and Jinghua New Materials [4][13] - The anticipated listing of major manufacturers like Yushun and Zhiyuan in 2026 is expected to drive valuation changes similar to those seen in the electric vehicle sector [4][13]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that domestic demand is recovering ahead of external demand, with a focus on low base effects in 2026, making bottomed-out sectors worth attention [3] - It highlights that upstream sectors are recovering before downstream sectors, with significant demand elasticity expected in early 2026, particularly in bulk supply chains and dry bulk shipping [3] - The report notes that price increases are anticipated before volume growth, with a focus on dry bulk shipping, e-commerce logistics, and airlines benefiting from supply constraints and favorable oil exchange rates [3] Industry Overview - The transportation sector ranked 29th in the market as of December 10, 2025, reflecting significant pressure on fundamentals, with a -1% performance in the Shenwan primary transportation index [18][19] - The report identifies structural opportunities in logistics and shipping, despite the overall economic cycle affecting the sector [20] - It indicates that the transportation sector's performance is closely tied to economic fundamentals, with a notable correlation between ROE and economic cycles [23] Sub-industry Analysis - In logistics, domestic demand is stabilizing while external trade remains robust, with expectations of price increases due to anti-involution policies [11][20] - The airline sector is experiencing improvements in supply and demand, with a focus on capturing opportunities in private airlines and airport duty-free consumption recovery [11][20] - The shipping sector, particularly dry bulk shipping, is highlighted as a cost-effective opportunity for 2026, driven by supply and demand dynamics [11][20] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a strategy of seeking alpha within beta, focusing on sectors with low beta characteristics that are expected to turn around in 2026 [11][20] - It emphasizes the importance of identifying individual stocks within the transportation sector that can outperform the broader market, given the anticipated recovery in demand [11][20] - The report outlines a cautious but optimistic outlook for 2026, with a focus on sectors that have shown resilience and potential for recovery [11][20]

[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2025 年 12 月 11 日 证券研究报告 美联储 12 月降息的关键信息及其影响 | [Tabl 分析师： | 郭磊 | 分析师： | 陈嘉荔 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 | | SAC 执证号：S0260523120005 | | | SFC CE.no: BNY419 | | | | | 021-38003572 | | 021-38003674 | | | guolei@gf.com.cn | | gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn | | | 请注意，陈嘉荔并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | | | [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ⚫ 美联储 12 月 9-10 日举行议息会议1，FOMC 官员投票下调联邦基金利率 25bp 至 3.5%-3.75%，这是自 2025 年 9 月重启降息后的第三次降息。堪萨斯城联储主席施密德（Schmid）、芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比（Goolsbee） 倾向于 ...

Investment Recommendations - The pig farming sector is currently facing losses for both fat and piglet sales, indicating conditions for capacity reduction. The industry is expected to accelerate capacity reduction, presenting a left-side layout opportunity for the pig farming sector. A price turning point is anticipated in mid-2026 [16][20][34] - Major pig farming companies recommended include Wens Foodstuffs Group and Muyuan Foods, with attention to Dekang Agriculture and New Hope. Companies with potential for operational turnaround include Zhengbang Technology, while smaller farming enterprises to watch include Tiankang Biological, Shennong Group, and Tangrenshen [16][34] Pig Industry Analysis - In 2025, the pig price fell below the cost line, leading to overall industry losses. By November, the average loss per self-breeding pig was 122 CNY per head, with an estimated annual profit of 30-80 CNY per head [20][23] - The industry is experiencing a significant reduction in breeding sow inventory, with a decrease to 39.9 million heads by October 2025, down 1.1% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year [28][36] Dairy Industry Analysis - The raw milk price continued to decline in 2025, leading to a reduction in dairy cow inventory. As the supply-demand balance improves, raw milk prices are expected to rise in 2026-2027 [16][18] - The beef supply is also entering a contraction phase, with expectations for beef prices to rise in 2026, enhancing the performance elasticity of livestock companies [16][18] Feed Industry Analysis - The feed sector is expected to see stable water aquaculture production in 2026, while demand for livestock feed is projected to decline due to reduced breeding capacity. Domestic feed leaders are positioned to benefit from overseas expansion opportunities [17][18] - The global feed industry is undergoing structural changes, providing opportunities for Chinese feed companies to expand internationally [17] Animal Health Industry Analysis - The animal health sector faces intensified competition, with traditional vaccine product margins declining. Companies are shifting towards multi-business models, including pet health products, to open new growth avenues [17][18] Pet Food Industry Analysis - The pet food market is showing signs of consolidation, with leading companies like Guai Bao Pet and Zhongchong Co. performing well. The long-term growth logic for the industry remains strong, supported by the rise of domestic brands [17][18] - Companies are also expanding their global production capabilities to mitigate trade friction impacts [17] Crop Industry Analysis - Corn prices are expected to rebound in 2025, with a potential strong performance in 2026. The seed industry is currently in a phase of inventory reduction, with opportunities arising from transgenic innovations and industry consolidation [18][19]

[Table_Summary] 报告摘要： | [分析师： Table_Author]郑恺 | | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260515090004 | | SFC CE No. BUU989 | | 021-38003559 | | zhengkai@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 邢莘 | | SAC 执证号：S0260520070009 | | 021-38003638 | | xingshen@gf.com.cn | | 请注意，邢莘并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 | 持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 [联系人： Table_Contacts] 毕露露 [Table_Page] 投资策略|点评报告 2025 年 12 月 11 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 晨会精选 ——观点全追踪（12 月第 6 期） bilulu@gf.com.cn 972918116公共联系人2025-12-11 00:39:14 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1 / 3 ⚫ 房地产：辽宁、湖北等地区"十五五"规划涉及房地产内容，除了高质 量发展外，同样强调要推广房票安 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the banking sector, indicating an expectation that stock prices will outperform the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [40]. Core Insights - The growth of M2 is primarily driven by government and corporate leverage, with government leverage's contribution increasing from 23.9% in 2015 to 45.5% in 2025, while corporate leverage is expected to contribute 63.6% to M2 growth in 2025 [5][14]. - The report highlights a divergence between the social financing (社融) and M2 growth rates, indicating a liquidity accumulation in the financial system when the demand for financing from the real economy is insufficient, which can lead to a decline in bond yields [5][19]. - The expected social financing-M2 differential for 2026 is projected to be 0.56%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 33 basis points [32]. Summary by Sections M2 and Liquidity Analysis - M2 includes cash, personal deposits, corporate deposits, non-bank deposits, and deposits from non-deposit financial institutions. The main contributors to M2 growth are government and corporate leverage [5][13]. - The report discusses the relationship between the social financing-M2 differential and bond market performance, noting a shift in correlation since the second half of 2022 [5][19]. Social Financing Projections - For 2026, the report forecasts a total of 16.3 trillion yuan in new loans under the social financing framework, with a growth rate of 8.11% [32][34]. - The report anticipates that the net issuance of government bonds will reach 14.8 trillion yuan in 2026, with a focus on maintaining a proactive fiscal policy [34]. M2 Growth Forecast - The M2 growth rate for 2026 is projected at 7.55%, influenced by factors such as net fiscal deposits, the strengthening of the equity market, and cross-border capital flows [32][36].