研 究 所 2024 年 7 月 15 日 [table_reportdate] [table_main] 行业周报 休闲服务 行业研究 行业周报 投资评级：推荐 同程旅行：暑期博物馆、出境游热 —休闲服务行业周报 核心观点 行业表现对比图 国 都 证 券 一、市场表现回顾 社会服务（SW）板块前一周 0.6%,在 31 个申万一级行业中，表现排名 第 16 位。 个股表现来看，涨幅最大的前五家公司分别是众信旅游(+14.38%)、凯 撒旅业(+10.61%)、张家界(+5.18%)、锦江 B 股(+5.03%)、长白山 (+4.53%);而跌幅最大的前五家公司分别是西域旅游(-9.19%)、国旅联 合(-6.87%)、曲江文旅(-4.32%)、米奥会展(-2.14%)、同庆楼(-1.3%)。 证 券 研 究 报 告 估值方面来看，截止 2024-07-12，社会服务（SW）市盈率（TTM，剔除 负值）为 28.3x，全部 A 股（TTM，剔除负值）的估值为 15.5x。【IFind】 资料来源：ifind、国都证券 [able_relation] [研ta究bl_员re：s郝ea卓rc凡h] 电 话： 01 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the semiconductor equipment industry [1] Core Views - Global semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales are expected to reach $109 billion in 2024, a 3.4% YoY increase, setting a new record [1] - Semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales are projected to grow 17% in 2025, reaching $128 billion [1] - Wafer fab equipment sales, including wafer processing, fab facilities, and mask/reticle equipment, are expected to grow 2.8% to $98 billion in 2024 [1] - Driven by AI computing, China's strong equipment spending and investments in DRAM and HBM have led to upward revisions in forecasts [1] - Wafer fab equipment sales are expected to grow 14.7% to $113 billion in 2025 due to increased demand for advanced logic and memory applications [1] - Backend equipment sector is expected to recover in H2 2024 after two years of contraction [1] - Semiconductor test equipment sales are forecasted to grow 7.4% to $6.7 billion in 2024, while packaging equipment sales are expected to grow 10.0% to $4.4 billion [1] - Backend segment growth is expected to accelerate in 2025, with test equipment sales surging 30.3% and packaging equipment sales surging 34.9% [1] - Storage-related capital expenditures are expected to see the most significant growth in 2024 and continue to grow in 2025 [1] - NAND equipment sales are expected to grow 1.5% to $9.35 billion in 2024 and 55.5% to $14.6 billion in 2025 [1] - DRAM equipment sales are expected to grow 24.1% in 2024 and 12.3% in 2025, driven by HBM demand for AI deployment and ongoing technology migration [1] Regional Analysis - Mainland China, Taiwan, and South Korea are expected to remain the top three destinations for equipment spending through 2025 [2] - Mainland China is expected to maintain its leading position due to continuous growth in equipment procurement [2] - AI-driven demand for logic chips and HBM storage is pushing upstream equipment demand higher, benefiting domestic semiconductor equipment companies [2] Key Beneficiaries - Upstream semiconductor equipment companies are expected to experience a prolonged boom cycle due to AI demand and external environmental factors [2] - Key beneficiaries include North Huachuang, AMEC, Piotech, and Saiteng [2]

研 究 所 2024 年 7 月 22 日 [table_reportdate] [table_main] 行业周报 休闲服务 行业研究 行业周报 投资评级：推荐 暑期旅游市场呈现"量涨价跌"态势 —休闲服务行业周报 国 都 证 券 一、市场表现回顾 社会服务（SW）板块前一周-1.6%,在 31 个申万一级行业中，表现排名 第 21 位。 个股表现来看，涨幅最大的前五家公司分别是锦江 B 股(+9.72%)、米奥 会展(+4.49%)、岭南控股(+4.01%)、锦江酒店(+3.22%)、中国中免 (+3.07%);而跌幅最大的前五家公司分别是西域旅游(-12.23%)、西藏旅 游(-11.3%)、长白山(-7.72%)、九华旅游(-6.68%)、同庆楼(-5.91%)。 核心观点 行业表现对比图 [table_stockTrend] 证 券 研 究 报 告 估值方面来看，截止 2024-07-19，社会服务（SW）市盈率（TTM，剔除 负值）为 27.8x，全部 A 股（TTM，剔除负值）的估值为 15.4x。【IFind】 资料来源：ifind、国都证券 [able_relation] [研ta究bl_员 ...

研 究 所 2024 年 7 月 29 日 [table_reportdate] [table_main] 行业周报 休闲服务 行业研究 行业周报 投资评级：推荐 上半年国内出游人次 27.3 亿，同比增长 14.3% —休闲服务行业周报 国 都 证 券 一、市场表现回顾 社会服务（SW）板块前一周-2.6%,在 31 个申万一级行业中，表现排名 第 17 位。 个股表现来看，涨幅最大的前五家公司分别是峨眉山 A(+3.96%)、锦旅 B 股(+2.46%)、国旅联合(+0.43%)、中科云网(+0%)、大连圣亚(+0%); 而跌幅最大的前五家公司分别是米奥会展(-6.98%)、科锐国际 (-6.71%)、众信旅游(-5.16%)、凯撒旅业(-4.9%)、西藏旅游(-4.09%)。 证 券 研 究 报 告 估值方面来看，截止 2024-07-26，社会服务（SW）市盈率（TTM，剔除 负值）为 27.1x，全部 A 股（TTM，剔除负值）的估值为 15.0x。【IFind】 核心观点 行业表现对比图 资料来源：ifind、国都证券 [able_relation] [研ta究bl_员re：s郝ea卓rc凡h] ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the express delivery industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector over the next six months [8]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry shows resilience in demand, with a year-on-year growth of 23.8% in May, and a cumulative growth of 24.4% from January to May 2024 [2][3]. - The report highlights that the competitive landscape is shifting from price competition to service quality, driven by new regulations aimed at enhancing customer service [3]. - The report notes that while the average revenue per package has declined, the leading companies in the industry, such as Yunda, Shentong, and Yuantong, have maintained positive growth rates in their business volumes [2][3]. Business Volume Summary - In May, the total business volume reached 14.78 billion packages, with Yunda leading the growth at 32.7%, followed by Shentong at 29.5%, and Yuantong at 27.6% [2]. - For the cumulative business volume from January to May, Shentong recorded a growth of 33.3%, Yunda at 30.5%, and Yuantong at 25.3%, while the industry average was 24.4% [2]. Revenue per Package Summary - The average revenue per package in May was 7.84 yuan, a decrease of 6.72% year-on-year, with a cumulative average of 8.19 yuan from January to May, down 8.9% [2]. - Specific company performance in May showed Yuantong at 2.23 yuan (down 3.9%), Yunda at 2.03 yuan (down 16.8%), Shentong at 2.01 yuan (down 9.1%), and Shunfeng at 15.25 yuan (down 1.2%) [2].

研究所 [table_main] 行业点评 [table_reportdate] 农林牧渔 2024 年 07 月 02 日 行业研究 行业点评 投资评级:推荐 国都证券 生猪养殖板块跟踪 【生猪养殖板块跟踪】 1)猪价:商品猪 18.0 元/kg,周环比上涨约 0.5 元/kg; 核心观点 股价走势图 资料来源:ifind,国都证券 资料来源:猪易通 2)点评: 猪价如期回踩到 17.5 元/kg 的水平,如前期预判深度有限; 近期价格再度开启反弹,主要是供给端缺口的体现; 产能 5 月虽然环比转增,主要系牧原贡献,行业主动扩产能信心仍不足, 也印证了生猪养殖行业资产负债表差,短期或难明显修复,扩产能能力 有限; 根据去产能边际变化,三季度供给边际加速下行,对猪价持续上涨形成 较强支撑; 研究员 t b e_res 白姣姣arch] 电 话: 010-84183207 3)观点:综合判断板块景气度持续或有望超预期,持续推荐生猪养殖 板块性机会。 Email: baijiaojiao@guodu.com 执业证书编号: S0940519060001 S0940519060001 风险提示:产能去化不及预期;重 ...

研 究 所 2024 年 06 月 25 日 [table_reportdate] [table_main] 行业专题 医药生物 行业研究 行业专题 投资评级:推荐 布局创新药、中药及医疗设备领域优质个股 —医药生物 2024 年中期投资策略 国 都 证 券 医药行业 2024 上半年回顾:截至 6 月 19 日,医药生物板块(SW)下 跌 17.40%,大幅跑输沪深 300 指数,各子行业均录得负收益。板块估 值及相较主要指数的溢价率均处于历史低位,具备较高安全边际。业绩 方面,2024Q1 板块收入及利润端均实现同比小幅增长,表现稳健。展 望 2024 全年,考虑高基数效应弱化及 2023H2 医疗反腐导致业绩基数较 低,板块业绩增速有望呈现"前低后高"的态势。基金持仓方面,2024Q1 公募基金医药持仓整体处于超配状态,若扣除医药主题基金后,非医药 基金持仓比例重回低配状态。 证 券 研 究 报 告 医药生物 2024 下半年展望:创新药首次写入政府工作报告,作为新质 生产力的体现,有望迎来全链条支持政策。此外,老龄化加速背景下, 医保控费趋势不变。药品和耗材集采提质扩面,国家和地方联动、协同 推进,规 ...

[table_reportdate] 机械设备 2024 年 7 月 3 日 [table_main] 行业周报 行业研究 行业点评 投资评级:推荐 国都证券 6 月挖机内销+25.6%,连续 4 个月实现正向增长 ----工程机械行业点评 核心观点 行业表现对比图 根据中国工程机械工业协会对挖掘机和装载机主要制造企业统计: - 2024 年 6 月销售各类挖掘机 16603 台,同比+5.31%。其中,国内 7661 台,同比+25.6%;出口 8942 台,同比-7.51%。2024 年 1-6 月共销售挖 掘机 10.32 万台,同比-5.15%。其中,国内 5.34 万台,同比+4.66%; 出口 4.98 台,同比-13.8%。 - 2024 年 6 月销售各类装载机 10794 台,同比+26.2%。其中,国内 5296 台,同比+22.6%;出口 5498 台,同比+29.8%;电动装载机 1570 台,占 比达到 14.5%。2024 年 1-6 月共销售各类装载机 5.70 万台,同比+0.74%。 其中,国内 2.89 万台,同比-3.34%;出口 2.81 万台,同比+5.32%。 国内 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [2][5] Core Viewpoints - The Ministry of Finance, General Administration of Customs, and State Taxation Administration announced an increase in the duty-free allowance for residents entering from Hong Kong and Macau, which is slightly lower than expected, thus having a limited impact on the industry [2] - The new duty-free allowance allows residents over the age of 18 to bring personal items valued up to 12,000 yuan without tax, and at ports with duty-free shops, they can purchase additional duty-free goods up to a total of 15,000 yuan [2] - The previous duty-free allowance of 5,000 yuan has been in place since 1996, and the increase is expected to boost tourism consumption, although the new allowance of 12,000 to 15,000 yuan is below the anticipated range of 30,000 to 100,000 yuan [2] Summary by Sections - **Investment Rating**: The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the next six months [2][5] - **Policy Changes**: The announcement of increased duty-free allowances is set to take effect from July 1, 2024, at six designated ports, with a broader rollout planned for August 1, 2024 [2] - **Market Impact**: The adjustments in duty-free allowances are expected to enhance tourism consumption, although the actual figures are lower than market expectations [2]

研 究 所 2024 年 7 月 1 日 [tab [tlae b_ lem_ra e i p n o ] rtdate] 公司点评 电气设备 公司研究 公司点评 跟踪评级_维持:推荐 锦浪科技(300763):率先公布中报预期,Q2 业绩超预期 ——锦浪科技(300763)公司点评 国 都 证 券 公司公告 24 年中报业绩预告,24 年上半年预计实现归母净利润 3.25 至 4 亿元,同比-48.14%至-36.18%;扣非净利润 2.93 亿元至 3.68 亿元,同 比-54.68%至-43.1%。公司表示,光伏和储能逆变器的接单量持续向好, 海外出货占比提升,随着公司产能的提升及供应链的改善,产品出货量 增长。我们拆分 24Q2,预计实现归母净利润 3.05 亿元至 3.8 亿元,同 比+13%,环比+1589%,超市场预期。 证 券 研 究 报 告 公司从 23Q3 开始已经连续三个季度收入和利润同比、环比均下滑,此 次 Q2 业绩表现亮眼,提振市场信心。我们认为此次 24Q2 收入和盈利 改善原因主要来自公司光伏和储能逆变器的接单量持续向好,海外出货 占比提升,随着公司产能的提升及供应链的改善,产 ...