研究所 [table_reportdate] 通信\电子 2025 年 2 月 24 日 行业周报 行业研究 行业周报 投资评级：推荐 国内各厂商全面接入 deepseek，算力需求加速释放 --通信及电子 20250224 周报 1）摘要 在国内 AI 公司深度求索发布大模型 DeepSeek-R1 之后持续获得高度关 注，包括腾讯、阿里在内的各大平台相继接入 DeepSeek，国内算力需 求有望得到进一步的激发。DeepSeek-R1 在性能上对标全球领先水平， 并且具有明显的成本优势，同时实现全面开源，DeepSeek R1 的发布及 其具备的各项优势，有望使得 AI 应用加速落地，端侧持续受益。随着 端侧算力的增强，端侧模型将在更多的领域中发挥重要作用，特别是在 需要实时处理和高隐私要求的应用场景中。全球 AI 应用商业化有望提 速，AI 应用场景将有望和消费电子等场景深度结合，进入百花齐放的 时期。在算力环节我们优先推荐国内晶圆代工环节，首推龙头中芯国际 和华宏公司，同时建议关注上游设备，半导体设备行业在成熟制程扩产、 国产化替代以及国产设备技术突破的共同推动下，保持快速增长，同时 在先进制程工艺以 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [3][29] Core Insights - The demand recovery post-Spring Festival is relatively weak, aligning with expectations. The feedback from the Spring Festival indicates a nearly 10% year-on-year decline in the sales of liquor, despite a noticeable improvement in the month-on-month performance. The liquor sector is entering a low season, and with companies like Wuliangye and Jinshiyuan halting shipments to maintain prices, the fundamental outlook is unlikely to improve significantly in the short term. The consumer goods sector shows a continued recovery, but the feedback from the Spring Festival is weak, particularly in the restaurant supply chain, which is expected to face short-term pressure. The condiment sector is showing a steady recovery, while dairy products are expected to decline year-on-year. The absolute growth rate of snack foods remains high, but growth is expected to cool due to a high base. Overall, the sector is likely to remain weak in the short term, but a gradual recovery is anticipated throughout the year, making it a good candidate for medium to long-term investment [4][6][10]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The feedback from the Spring Festival indicates a continuation of the decline in the liquor industry, with an expected drop of nearly 10%. Post-holiday, the price of Moutai has stabilized and slightly increased, while Wuliangye's price has rebounded significantly after halting shipments. The first half of 2025 is expected to remain weak, but medium-term prospects may improve as domestic policies take effect. High-end liquor is recommended for long-term investment, with specific companies such as Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao highlighted [6][7]. Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector shows a slight recovery in sales post-Spring Festival, but overall performance remains weak. The restaurant supply chain continues to struggle, while the condiment sector is experiencing a steady recovery. Dairy products are expected to decline year-on-year, and the growth rate of snack foods is anticipated to decrease due to a high base. The sector is characterized by essential demand, and performance may exceed that of the liquor sector. Companies such as Yili, Tianwei, Anjixin, Qianwei Central Kitchen, and Haitian Flavoring are recommended for medium to long-term investment [6][7]. Market Performance - The sector has experienced a slight pullback in the first three trading days post-holiday, primarily due to weak fundamental feedback. The overall decline for the sector in 2025 is 6.9%, attributed to systemic adjustments and weak fundamental performance [10][11].

行业周报 行业研究 行业周报 投资评级：推荐 淡季基本面平淡，仍以配置为主线 核心观点 股价走势图 研究所 [table_reportdate] 食品饮料 2025 年 02 月 17 日 1）摘要 本周板块反弹 2.3%，主要为随市场系统性反弹，板块基本面反馈平淡； 白酒春节已相对平顺落地，节后进入淡季，在需求和库存均有所承压背 景下，预计基本面反馈难有向好催化；大众品板块延续回升，其中上海 等地出台"消费券"政策，对餐饮供应链的企业或有边际向好的作用；整 个板块短期或难有催化，延续相对弱势；全年维度看有望逐步走出拐点； 绝对估值整体处于底部区间；综合判断目前板块基本面对行情走势的权 重有所降低，建议更多关注宏观政策以及市场资金等变化对板块预期的 影响；目前策略维度仍建议以中长期逻辑去做配置；推荐泛餐饮链以及 白酒头部性企业。推荐公司包括：贵州茅台、五粮液、山西汾酒、泸州 老窖、天味食品、安井食品、伊利股份、海天味业、千味央厨、燕京啤 酒等。 资料来源：国都证券，ifind 2）行业观点更新 白酒：春节旺季销售基本算平顺落地，之后行业进入淡季，考虑需求较 弱，厂家控货挺价，预计基本面仍延续较弱的态势；近期茅 ...

研究所 行业周报 行业研究 行业周报 投资评级：推荐 白酒控货挺价，短期或具补涨行情 核心观点 股价走势图 1）摘要 本周板块走势较平稳，主要原因为板块无较大基本面催化；白酒春节后 进入淡季，诸多企业开启停货挺价的动作，包括五粮液、今世缘、汾酒 及老窖等；市场反馈相对理性和平稳，其中今世缘和汾酒渠道反馈势能 仍向上，并且有增量；大众品板块延续回升，如中炬高新春节动销因基 数较高，同比或略有压力，但环比增长较优；整个板块从基本面维度看 短期或难有催化，延续相对弱势，其中白酒基本面预计仍为左侧；临近 两会，建议关注自上而下政策端的催化；全年维度看随着宏观调控发力， 有望逐步走出底部拐点；绝对估值整体处于底部区间，横向对比目前市 场其他板块龙头白马近期估值修复明显，短期板块或具补涨行情。 [table_reportdate] 食品饮料 2025 年 02 月 24 日 推荐白酒头部性企业以及泛餐饮链。推荐公司包括：贵州茅台、五粮液、 山西汾酒、泸州老窖、天味食品、安井食品、伊利股份、海天味业、千 味央厨、燕京啤酒等。 资料来源：国都证券，ifind 2）行业观点更新 白酒：近期白酒进入传统淡季，诸多厂家开启控货挺价 ...

所 2025 年 2 月 10 日 [table_reportdate] [table_main] 行业周报 行业研究 行业周报 投资评级：推荐 钾肥供给紧张小幅上涨 成本支撑氨纶价格上涨 ——化工及新能源材料行业周报 1、行业观点更新： 布伦特原油价格上周下跌 1.3%至 74.69 美元/桶。美国加征关税且特朗 普要求欧佩克增产以降低油价，市场情绪偏向谨慎，国际原油整体呈现 震荡下跌走势。美国总统特朗普签署总统备忘录，重新实施针对伊朗的 严格政策，旨在阻止该国获得核武器并限制其石油出口。如果伊朗的供 应量因新制裁而下降，目前市场主流判断制裁可能导致伊朗原油产量下 降约 50-100 万通/日。 原油多空消息交织，价格保持在较高位置，天然气价格保持高位，海外 化工品提价频繁，包括 TDI、MDI、钛白粉等，主要是成本推动。特朗 普上台后，对能源、进出口等政策存在较大的不确定性，化工方面看好 煤化工相关的宝丰能源、电子化学品材料国产化替代、民爆行业的资产 整合。 核心观点 行业表现对比图 国 都 证 资料来源：IFIND、国都证券 | [研ta究ble员_r：esearc王h]双 | | | --- | -- ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [3][27]. Core Viewpoints - The liquor sector is currently experiencing a stable performance, with no significant fundamental catalysts. Major liquor companies are implementing inventory control and price stabilization measures, particularly during the traditional off-season post-Spring Festival. Companies like Wuliangye, Jinshiyuan, Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao are taking actions to maintain prices. Market feedback remains rational and stable, with Jinshiyuan and Fenjiu showing upward momentum and incremental growth [4][6]. - The overall valuation of the liquor sector is at a bottom range, with a general dividend yield exceeding 3%. Compared to other leading sectors, the liquor sector's leading stocks may have a rebound potential. Recommended companies include Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and others [4][6]. - The consumer goods sector is showing a slight recovery in sales post-Spring Festival, although it remains relatively weak overall. The decline in raw material prices, such as milk and sugar, is beneficial for profit margins. The report suggests a long-term positive outlook for consumer goods, recommending companies like Yili, Tianwei, Anjixin, and others [6]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is entering a traditional off-season, with many manufacturers starting to control inventory and stabilize prices. Recent tracking shows stable prices for Moutai and Wuliangye, with some products from Shanxi Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao also being temporarily halted. The overall liquor market is expected to remain weak in the short term, but macroeconomic policies may provide a catalyst for recovery [6][11]. - The absolute valuation of liquor stocks is at a bottom range, with a dividend yield above 3%. The leading liquor stocks are expected to have rebound potential, with recommendations for Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao [4][6]. Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector is experiencing a slight recovery in sales, although it remains under pressure. The report highlights that the sales performance of Zhongju Gaoxin is improving on a month-on-month basis, despite facing year-on-year pressure due to base effects. The decline in raw material prices is favorable for profit margins, and the report maintains a long-term positive outlook for the sector [6][16]. - Recommended companies in the consumer goods sector include Yili, Tianwei, Anjixin, Qianwei Central Kitchen, and Haitian Flavoring [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [3][26] Core Insights - In January 2025, China's automobile sales reached 2.423 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6% and a month-on-month decrease of 30.5%, primarily affected by the Spring Festival [3][11] - The demand for liquid cooling temperature control has significantly increased due to the widespread application of DeepSeek, enhancing the performance of thermal management component companies like Yinlun [3][4] - The introduction of new models, including Xiaomi's YU7 and various others, is expected to intensify competition in the 300,000 to 500,000 RMB market segment in 2025 [4] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has approved new vehicles, including Xiaomi's YU7 with two battery options [4] - The competition among major automakers is expected to increase as new models are launched [4] Catalysts for Sector Performance - The acceleration of smart technology integration among Chinese automakers, driven by DeepSeek, is expected to enhance overall competitiveness [4][6] - Continued and expanded subsidy policies in 2025 are anticipated to positively impact industry sales [4] Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities in the automotive industry are concentrated in electrification and smart technology [5] - Recommended companies include BYD and Seres for their clear new energy and smart technology labels, as well as leading players in the electric and smart sectors like CATL and Yinlun [5] Industry Performance Analysis - The automotive sector saw a 3.73% increase last week, with strong performances from companies like BYD and Yinlun [6] - Traditional automakers are enhancing their smart capabilities through DeepSeek, narrowing the competitive gap with leaders like Huawei and Tesla [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - The mechanical equipment sector saw a weekly increase of 7.77%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, with automation equipment and general equipment showing strong performance at +12.06% and +9.03% respectively [3][12] - In January 2025, excavator sales reached 12,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, with domestic sales at 5,405 units (down 0.3%) and export sales at 7,107 units (up 2.19%). The domestic market is expected to see significant growth in February due to a low base effect [4][14] - The humanoid robot industry is experiencing rapid development, with recent product launches and improvements in AI capabilities, indicating a positive trend for the sector [5][16] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The mechanical equipment sector outperformed the CSI 300 index with a 7.77% increase, ranking second among 31 industries. The best-performing sub-sectors were automation equipment (+12.06%) and general equipment (+9.03%) [12] - Notable individual stock performances included Double Fly Co. (+70.90%) and Changsheng Bearing (+67.16%) [12] Engineering Machinery - In January 2025, various types of excavators sold totaled 12,500 units, with domestic sales at 5,405 units and exports at 7,107 units. The sector is expected to improve in Q1 2025 due to favorable conditions [4][14][15] - The engineering machinery sector is recommended for investment, particularly in companies like SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and Zoomlion due to their improved valuation after previous corrections [15] Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot sector is witnessing significant advancements, with new product launches from companies like Figure and 1X Technologies, showcasing enhanced AI capabilities and functionality [5][18] - The introduction of low-cost production methods and new models is expected to further drive down costs and increase market penetration [6][13]

究 所 市场表现：家用电器（SW）板块前一周+0.2%，在 31 个申万一级行业 中，表现排名第 24 位，跑输沪深 300 指数 1.03pct。从子板块周涨跌 幅来看，白色家电、黑色家电、小家电、厨卫电器、照明设备、家电零 部件分别为-0.82%、8.81%、4.23%、4.84%、-0.48%、-4.17%。估值 方面来看，截止 2025-02-14，家用电器（SW）市盈率（TTM，剔除负 值）为 15.6x，位列申万 31 个一级行业的第 24 位，估值处于相对较低 水平。【IFind】 核心观点：近期，李强主持召开国务院常务会议，研究提振消费有关工 作。会议指出，强化消费品牌引领，支持新型消费加快发展，促进"人 工智能+消费"等，持续打造消费新产品新场景新热点。 建议关注家电板块中"AI+消费"相关标的。其中，2 月 11 日，海信视 像透露海信电视正式接入 DeepSeek，且支持 R1 和 V3 版本自由切换。 目前海信电视正在开展用户终端的升级发布工作，预计 3-5 天内，全部 搭载智能体的海信电视都将全面支持 DeepSeek。此外，建议关注扫地 机器人领域，ai+服务机器人有望成为发展方向 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [3][5] Core Viewpoints - The engineering machinery sector has shown resilience with a 1.1% year-on-year increase in excavator sales in January 2025, totaling 12,500 units sold, despite a slight decline in domestic sales [4][14] - The humanoid robot segment is experiencing rapid advancements, highlighted by the successful performance of Yush Robot's H1 and G1 models during the Spring Festival, indicating significant potential for growth in the robotics industry [4][15] - The engineering machinery sector is expected to benefit from a low base effect in February, leading to substantial growth in sales, particularly in the domestic market [4][14] Summary by Sections Industry Performance Review - The mechanical equipment sector experienced a slight decline of 0.16% last week, underperforming compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, which rose by 1.19% [12] - The engineering machinery sub-sector performed relatively well with a 2.65% increase [12] Engineering Machinery Insights - In January 2025, excavator sales reached 12,500 units, with domestic sales at 5,405 units (down 0.3%) and export sales at 7,107 units (up 2.19%) [4][14] - The outlook for the engineering machinery sector remains positive, with expectations of improved performance in Q1 2025 due to favorable market conditions and policy support [4][15] Humanoid Robot Developments - Yush Technology's humanoid robots showcased advanced motion control capabilities during a high-profile performance, indicating significant technological progress [4][15] - The G1 humanoid robot is priced at 99,000 yuan, while the H1 model is priced at 650,000 yuan, both of which have seen strong demand [4][16] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on low-position investment opportunities in the engineering machinery sector, particularly in companies like SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and Zoomlion [4][15] - Continuous monitoring of developments in the humanoid robot sector is advised, as recent advancements suggest a promising future for the industry [5][16]