研究所 国都证券 2024 年 10 月 14 日 [table_main] 公司点评 [table_reportdate] 计算机 行业研究 行业点评 投资评级：推荐 特斯拉发布 Cybercab，Robotaxi 产业持续进展 计算机行业点评 核心观点 行业表现对比图 一、事件： 10 月 11 日，特斯拉在美国举办"We，Robot"活动，推出无人驾驶出 租车 Cybercab、自动驾驶厢式货车 Robovan 以及更新人形机器人 Optimus 的最新进展。 [table_stock] 二、点评: 近期，特斯拉举办发布会，三款"机器人"新品亮相。最令人期待的无 疑是 Robotaxi（无人驾驶出租车）产品，特斯拉将其命名为 Cybercab， 仅依靠摄像头和人工智能，而不需要当前主流 Robotaxi 厂商使用的激光 雷达等其他硬件。（1）技术方面，特斯拉正从有监督的全自动驾驶转 向无监督式全自动驾驶，特斯拉完全自动驾驶 FSD 预计很快就将实现， 预计明年在美国得州和加州推出完全自动驾驶、无人监督的 FSD。（2） 成本方面，Cybercab 的整车车辆成本将低于 3 万美元，并预期 Cyberca ...

研 究 所 2024 年 10 月 23 日 [tab [tlae b_ lem_ra e i p n o ] rtdate] 行业点评 汽车 行业研究 行业点评 投资评级：推荐 9 月充电量 50 亿度，同比+59%，环比-5% 汽车行业点评 国 都 证 券 据中国充电联盟的数据统计，2024 年 9 月全国充电总电量约 50.4 亿 度，较上月减少 2.6 亿度，同比增长 58.6%，环比增长-4.9%。 [table_stockTrend] 供给方面，2024 年 9 月比 2024 年 8 月公共充电桩增加 6.6 万台，9 月同比增长 35.2%。截至 2024 年 9 月，联盟内成员单位总计上报公 共充电桩 332.9 万台，其中直流充电桩 150.1 万台、交流充电桩 182.7 万台。从 2023 年 10 月到 2024 年 9 月，月均新增公共充电桩约 7.2 万台。 证 券 研 究 报 告 2024 年 1-9 月，充电基础设施增量为 283.7 万台，同比上升 16.6%。 其中公共充电桩增量为 60.3 万台，同比下降 9.3%，随车配建私人充 电桩增量为 223.4 万台，同比上升 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the electrical equipment industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the next six months [8]. Core Insights - In August 2024, China exported approximately 18.76GW of photovoltaic modules, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 4% but a year-on-year increase of 9%. Cumulatively, from January to August, exports reached 170.24GW, marking a year-on-year growth of 23% [1][2]. - The European market imported 8.21GW of modules from China in August, down 4% month-on-month and unchanged year-on-year. Cumulative imports for the first eight months totaled 70.9GW, a decrease of 10% year-on-year. Economic stagnation and reduced government subsidies in major countries like Germany and Spain are impacting demand [1][2]. - The Asia-Pacific market saw imports of 4.63GW in August, a 10% decrease month-on-month but a 5% increase year-on-year. Cumulative imports reached 50.27GW, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 90% [2][3]. - The Americas imported 2.55GW in August, a 9% increase month-on-month but a 5% decrease year-on-year, with cumulative imports at 21.65GW, up 12% year-on-year. Brazil remains the largest importer in the region [3]. - The Middle East imported 2.49GW in August, remaining stable month-on-month and showing a 61% increase year-on-year, with cumulative imports at 20.46GW, up 142% year-on-year [3]. Summary by Sections - **European Market**: Demand growth is expected to be limited in Q3 due to economic challenges and seasonal factors, with potential negative growth in the fourth quarter [4]. - **Asia-Pacific Market**: The Indian market's demand is weakening due to unclear ALMM exemption requirements, while Pakistan's demand may decrease in the second half of 2024 after a strong first half [2][4]. - **Americas Market**: Brazil's new tax exemption policies may stimulate demand for distributed solar projects, despite current market uncertainties [3]. - **Middle East Market**: Saudi Arabia's commitment to renewable energy projects is expected to sustain strong demand for Chinese photovoltaic products [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the electrical equipment industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector over the next six months [7]. Core Insights - The National Energy Administration has released a draft for the "Management Measures for the Development and Construction of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation," which emphasizes fair access to the grid and categorizes distributed photovoltaic projects into four types [1][3]. - The new regulations aim to alleviate the pressure on the grid by specifying that large commercial distributed photovoltaic projects must use all generated power for self-consumption and are not allowed to sell excess power back to the grid [2][3]. - The draft also states that self-consumed electricity from distributed photovoltaic systems will be exempt from certain government fees, enhancing the economic viability of such projects [3]. Summary by Sections Distributed Photovoltaic Project Classification - The report outlines four categories for distributed photovoltaic projects: 1. Household photovoltaic systems for natural persons with a connection voltage of ≤380V. 2. Household photovoltaic systems for non-natural persons with a connection voltage of ≤10kV and a total capacity of ≤6MW. 3. General commercial distributed photovoltaic systems with a connection voltage of ≤10kV and a total capacity of ≤6MW. 4. Large commercial distributed photovoltaic systems with a connection voltage of 35kV (≤20MW) or 110kV (≤50MW) [1][2]. Market Participation and Policy - The report highlights that distributed photovoltaic projects will participate in the electricity market according to local policies, which will determine pricing and market ratios [5]. - It emphasizes that grid companies must provide non-discriminatory access to projects and cannot unjustifiably delay connection applications [5]. Economic Impact - The draft regulations are expected to positively impact the economic feasibility of distributed photovoltaic projects by reducing financial burdens through exemptions from certain fees [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" by Guodu Securities, indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals over the next six months [2][13]. Core Viewpoints - The CPIA has called for the prevention of "involution" and unhealthy competition within the industry, emphasizing the need for self-regulation and a mechanism for the elimination of inefficient capacities to ensure sustainable development [2][5]. - The final production cost of photovoltaic components for October 2024 is estimated at 0.68 yuan/W, excluding transportation costs, and there is a call for bidding parties not to bid below this cost [3][5]. - The industry is currently facing pressure, with many companies reporting losses or nearing breakeven points in Q2, and prices continuing to decline into Q3 [4][5]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance Review - The photovoltaic index increased by 2.53% from October 14 to October 18, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 0.98%. The top five performers in the sector included Jingrui Electric Materials (+26.64%) and Jidian Co. (+22.65%) [3]. - The wind power index rose by 0.45% during the same period, lagging behind the broader market [3]. Industry Updates - A meeting was held on October 14 to discuss preventing "involution" in the industry, with consensus reached on enhancing self-discipline and market mechanisms [5]. - The CPIA has emphasized the need for reasonable bidding strategies that focus on quality and service rather than solely on price [6][7]. Policy Tracking - The CPIA has noted a significant drop in photovoltaic component prices since the second half of 2023, with instances of bids below cost becoming a common issue [6][8]. - The organization is advocating for a fair assessment of component costs to guide market and regulatory actions [6][8]. Data Tracking - The report includes various data points on domestic photovoltaic and wind power installation volumes, as well as export amounts for inverters and components, indicating trends in the industry [9][10].

研 究 所 2024 年 10 月 21 日 [table_reportdate] [table_main] 行业周报 化工 行业研究 行业周报 投资评级：推荐 稳定冬储化肥价格 尿素出口大幅减少 ——化工及新能源材料行业周报 国 都 证 券 1、行业观点更新： 根据海关总署数据，今年 1—9 月份累计出口各种化肥 2295 万吨，同 比增加 1.3%。其中，尿素累计出口 25 万吨,同比降幅为 91%；今年硫 酸铵出口量大幅增加，尿素出口量大幅减少，数量上表现为同比出口增 加，9 月份出口量环比和同比均出现大幅下降，保障了国内秋季用肥， 同时说明磷肥出口没有超预期的增长，预计 10 月份化肥出口量同比和 环比可能会继续回落，主要为稳定冬储化肥价格奠定基础。 核心观点 行业表现对比图 证 券 研 究 报 告 10 月 12 日，财政部就后续财政政策召开新闻发布会，传递积极的财 政政策信号，重点从政策力度和空间、地方化债、支持银行和地产等方 面展开。政策密集落地期，宏观预期扭转，有助于市场信心回升。化工 行业及个股迎来估值修复。 从行业基本面看仍然需要消化过剩产能，行业景气度实现反转还需要时 间，企业竞争非常激 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [1] Core Viewpoints - The titanium dioxide market is experiencing weak demand both domestically and internationally, with recent anti-dumping investigations affecting exports from China [2][6] - The chemical industry is currently facing a low point in terms of profitability, with many companies operating at a loss, while those with raw material resources are still able to generate profits [2][6] - Recent fiscal policy signals from the government are expected to boost market confidence and support a valuation recovery in the chemical sector [2][3] Industry Performance and Analysis - From October 8 to October 11, 2024, the Shenwan Basic Chemical Index fell by 6.40%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which decreased by 3.56% [5] - The best-performing segments included organic silicon and other plastic products, while the worst performers were textile chemical products, potassium fertilizer, and titanium dioxide [5] - The price of titanium dioxide has decreased by 1.59% to 14,989 RMB/ton recently, with a monthly decline of 2.56% [6] Recommendations - Three key investment directions are recommended: 1. Leading companies with absolute cost advantages 2. Industries that have completed a round of capacity expansion, particularly polyester filament and refrigerants 3. Niche sectors with high technical barriers and recovering downstream demand, particularly electronic chemicals [3][9] - Recommended companies include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Baofeng Energy, Longbai Group, Tongkun Co., Juhua Co., and Huate Gas [3][9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an investment rating of "Recommended" for the mechanical equipment industry [1]. Core Views - The mechanical equipment sector has shown a significant recovery, with a 3.46% increase last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 0.79% [1][6]. - The engineering machinery market is expected to see a sales volume of 16,000 excavators in October 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 10%, with domestic sales projected at 8,000 units, up nearly 18% [2][8]. - The humanoid robot sector is advancing, with Tesla's Optimus robot showcasing enhanced capabilities, and domestic manufacturers making significant progress in industrialization [2][9]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance Review - The mechanical equipment sector rose by 3.46% last week, ranking 15th among 31 first-level industries, with all sub-sectors experiencing growth. Notably, general equipment increased by 5.93% and specialized equipment by 5.34% [6]. - The top five performing stocks included Qifeng Precision (+86.52%) and Tonghui Electronics (+85.28%), while the worst performers included Oat Technology (-13.00%) and Qinghai Huading (-11.48%) [6]. Engineering Machinery - The domestic market is showing signs of recovery, driven by favorable real estate policies and a new cycle of equipment replacement. The export market is also gradually improving, with a forecasted increase in sales [8]. - The report maintains recommendations for companies such as XCMG, SANY Heavy Industry, and Zoomlion, anticipating continued demand growth in both domestic and international markets [2][8]. Humanoid Robots - Tesla's recent updates on the Optimus robot highlight its advanced motion capabilities and autonomous working abilities. Domestic companies are also making strides, with significant developments reported from Shanghai Electric and other firms [9][10]. - The report suggests continued attention to the performance improvements of core components in humanoid robots, recommending companies that have direct collaborations with leading manufacturers [10].

2024 年 10 月 14 日 [table_main] 公司点评 [table_reportdate] 计算机 行业研究 行业周报 投资评级：推荐 特斯拉发布 Cybercab，预计明年在美国得州、加州推出无监督式 FSD 计算机周报 核心观点 行业表现对比图 一、摘要： 近期，特斯拉旗下 Robotaxi--Cybercab，仅依靠摄像头和人工智能，而 不需要当前主流 Robotaxi 厂商使用的激光雷达等其他硬件。技术方面， 特斯拉表示完全自动驾驶 FSD 预计很快就将实现，预计明年在美国得 州和加州推出完全自动驾驶、无人监督的 FSD。成本方面，Cybercab 的整车车辆成本将低于 3 万美元，并预期 Cybercab 的出行成本在未来 可以降至每英里 0.2 美元左右，预计车辆在 26 年开始生产、27 年开始 量产。此前，我们对国内网约车及 Robotaxi 经营成本进行过测算，预计 短期内 Robotaxi 前装车型的整车成本将随着技术突破和规模量产率先 进入下降通道，预计到 2026-2028 年，Robotaxi 的每公里成本将与传统 网约车服务相当，无安全员的 Robotaxi 每公里 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an investment rating of "Recommended" for the mechanical equipment industry [1][18]. Core Insights - The mechanical equipment sector experienced a decline of 5.11% last week, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 index, which fell by 3.25% [4]. - In September 2024, excavator sales reached 15,800 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.8%. Domestic sales accounted for 7,610 units, up 21.5%, while export sales were 8,221 units, up 2.51% [6][7]. - Tesla's humanoid robot, Optimus, showcased significant advancements in intelligence and flexibility during its recent launch event, with expectations for major hardware updates by late 2024 or early 2025 [8]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance Review - The mechanical equipment sector ranked 15th among 31 primary industries, with all sub-sectors showing declines. The smallest decline was in rail transit equipment at -2.40% [4]. - The report highlights that the domestic market is showing signs of recovery, driven by demand for small excavator replacements and a gradual improvement in the export market [6][7]. Industry Outlook - The report emphasizes the potential for recovery in the engineering machinery sector, supported by fiscal policies aimed at infrastructure and real estate [6][7]. - The humanoid robot segment is expected to see continued advancements, with a focus on the performance and structural design of Tesla's new robot [8]. Company Information Tracking - LiuGong (000528) anticipates a net profit of 1.239 to 1.405 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 50% to 70% [9]. Key Data Tracking - The report includes various data points related to excavator sales and market trends, indicating a positive trajectory for the domestic and export markets [10][12].