研究所 [table_reportdate] 通信\电子 2025 年 2 月 24 日 行业周报 行业研究 行业周报 投资评级：推荐 国内各厂商全面接入 deepseek，算力需求加速释放 --通信及电子 20250224 周报 1）摘要 在国内 AI 公司深度求索发布大模型 DeepSeek-R1 之后持续获得高度关 注，包括腾讯、阿里在内的各大平台相继接入 DeepSeek，国内算力需 求有望得到进一步的激发。DeepSeek-R1 在性能上对标全球领先水平， 并且具有明显的成本优势，同时实现全面开源，DeepSeek R1 的发布及 其具备的各项优势，有望使得 AI 应用加速落地，端侧持续受益。随着 端侧算力的增强，端侧模型将在更多的领域中发挥重要作用，特别是在 需要实时处理和高隐私要求的应用场景中。全球 AI 应用商业化有望提 速，AI 应用场景将有望和消费电子等场景深度结合，进入百花齐放的 时期。在算力环节我们优先推荐国内晶圆代工环节，首推龙头中芯国际 和华宏公司，同时建议关注上游设备，半导体设备行业在成熟制程扩产、 国产化替代以及国产设备技术突破的共同推动下，保持快速增长，同时 在先进制程工艺以 ...

所 2025 年 2 月 24 日 [table_reportdate] [table_main] 行业周报 行业研究 行业周报 投资评级：推荐 纯 MDI、TDI 价格由涨转跌 需求不及预期 ——化工及新能源材料行业周报 钾肥价格持续上涨，国内上游开工率偏低，下游需求旺季即将来临；国 际市场乌拉尔钾肥公司宣布关闭三座矿山维护，二季度产量减少至少 30 万吨，加剧全球供应紧张；白俄罗斯、俄罗斯受地缘政治影响，产 能释放持续受限。 1、行业观点更新： 独立性申明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，国都证券对这些信息的准确性和完整性不做任何保证。分析逻辑基于 作者的职业理解，通过合理判断并得出结论，力求客观、公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意、影响，特此声明。 纯 MDI、TDI 在年初企业纷纷上调价格之后，本周价格下跌。主要是需 求不及预期。MDI 面临美国反倾销调查，目前已经执行 41.5%的关税， 但是出口美国 MDI 价格偏低，利润不高，万华预计通过匈牙利产能进行 渠道调整，预计对公司业绩影响有限。 核心观点 行业表现对比图 资料来源：IFIND、国都证券 证 券 研 究 报 告 | [研ta究ble员_ ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [3][26] Core Views - The sector experienced a rebound of 2.3% this week, primarily due to a systematic market rebound, although the fundamental feedback remains subdued [4][9] - The liquor sector has seen a relatively smooth landing during the Spring Festival, but it is now entering a low season with both demand and inventory under pressure, making it unlikely for the fundamentals to improve significantly [4][6] - The consumer goods sector continues to recover, with policies like "consumption vouchers" in cities like Shanghai potentially benefiting the restaurant supply chain [4][6] - The overall sector may lack short-term catalysts and is expected to remain relatively weak, but there is potential for gradual improvement throughout the year [4][6] Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The Spring Festival sales were relatively stable, but the industry is now entering a low season with weak demand, leading manufacturers to control supply and maintain prices [6] - The price of Moutai remains stable at around 2250 yuan per bottle, while Wuliangye is around 930 yuan per bottle [11] - The sector's fundamentals are becoming less influential on market trends, with a growing sensitivity to macroeconomic policies and capital changes [6] Consumer Goods Sector - The introduction of "consumption vouchers" in Shanghai is expected to have a marginally positive impact on consumer goods [6] - Sales during the Spring Festival showed a slight recovery, particularly in condiments and snacks, although overall performance remains relatively weak [6] - Raw material prices, such as milk and sugar, are on a downward trend, which is favorable for profit margins [6][17] Recommended Companies - Recommended companies include Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, Tianwei Food, Anjui Food, Yili, Haitian Flavoring, Qianwei Central Kitchen, and Yanjing Beer [4][6]

——电气设备行业周报 核心观点 股价走势图 [tab [ l te a_ bm le_ airn e 电气设备 2025 年 2 月 17 日 ]portdate] 公司点评 行业研究 行业周报 跟踪评级_维持：推荐 25 年 1 月央企集采定标 6.24GW，头部集中度提高 摘要 据风电头条统计，根据公开信息统计 25 年 1 月各省发改委核准风电项 目共 85 个，规模总计 11.3GW。其中，陆上风电项目 81 个，规模总计 10.21GW；海上风电项目 2 个，规模总计 1GW；分散式风电项目 2 个， 规模总计 87.5MW。 25 年 1 月，央企 45 个风电项目集采定标，总规模 6.24GW，涉及中国 电建、华能、国家能源集团、华润、中广核、华电、大唐、航空工业、 三峡、中国能建 10 家央企；三一重能、电气风电、运达股份排前三名， 占总中标容量的 54.6%，合计 3.4GW。 从价格方面来看，2025 年 1 月，陆上风电项目（含塔筒）最低中标单 价为 1466 元/kW，最高中标单价为 2750 元/kW；（不含塔筒）最低中 标单价为 1245 元/kW，最高中标单价为 1682 元/k ...

研 究 所 2024 年 12 月 30 日 [table_reportdate] [table_main] 行业周报 家用电器 行业研究 行业周报 投资评级：推荐 电动自行车加速换新，2025 年出货弹性值得期待 国 都 证 券 —家用电器行业周报 市场表现：家用电器（SW）板块前一周+0.9%，在 31 个申万一级行业 [table_stockTrend] 中，表现排名第 5 位，跑输沪深 300 指数 0.43pct。估值方面来看，截 止 2024-12-27，家用电器（SW）市盈率（TTM，剔除负值）为 15.6x， 位列申万 31 个一级行业的第 26 位，估值处于相对较低水平。【IFind】 核心观点 行业表现对比图 [研ta究bl_员re：s郝ea卓rc凡h] 资料来源：ifind、国都证券 [able_relation] 独立性申明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，国都证券对这些信息的准确性和完整性不做任何保证。分析逻辑基于 作者的职业理解，通过合理判断并得出结论，力求客观、公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意、影响，特此声明。 电 话： 010-84183386 Email： haozhuo ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an investment rating of "Recommended" for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [3][53]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector experienced a slight decline last week but outperformed the CSI 300 index, with all sub-sectors showing a downturn, particularly in medical services [3]. - The recent release of the 10th batch of national drug procurement documents indicates stricter qualification reviews and a more competitive environment, which may lead to increased price reductions for selected drugs [4][8]. - The integration of commercial health insurance with the national medical insurance platform is expected to accelerate, benefiting domestic innovative drugs, medical devices, and high-end medical services [9]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The 10th batch of national drug procurement includes 62 varieties with a total of 135 specifications, primarily focusing on injectable drugs, which account for nearly 60% of the total [4]. - The total sales of the 62 varieties in 2023 reached approximately 55 billion yuan, with over 20 varieties exceeding 1 billion yuan in sales [4]. Regulatory Changes - The procurement cycle has been adjusted from four years to three years, with stricter qualification requirements for participating companies [4][8]. - The new rules eliminate the previous condition that allowed for selection based on a price reduction of 50% or more, indicating a shift towards a more competitive bidding process [4][8]. Market Dynamics - The recent updates to the traditional Chinese medicine procurement list in Anhui Province have removed certain products, alleviating market concerns regarding the expansion of procurement categories [10]. - The report highlights the potential for valuation recovery for related companies following these updates [10]. Performance Tracking - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector saw a decline of 2.36% last week, ranking 22nd among 31 sub-sectors, while the CSI 300 index fell by 2.60% [11]. - The report notes that the sector's price-to-earnings ratio remains below the median level since 2010, indicating potential undervaluation [11]. Financial Data - From January to October 2024, the basic medical insurance fund's income reached 2.3065 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8.93% year-on-year increase [22]. - The cumulative revenue of the domestic pharmaceutical manufacturing industry from January to September 2024 was 1.8447 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.2% [28].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Recommended" [1][28]. Core Views - The construction materials index decreased by 2.33% last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.27%. The cement and glass prices showed slight declines, with regional variations in price changes. The overall inventory levels for cement and clinker have decreased, indicating a medium to high level of inventory [1][4][16]. Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The construction materials index fell by 2.33%, while the CSI 300 index dropped by 2.60%, indicating a relative outperformance of 0.27% [4]. - The cement index decreased by 1.58%, and the glass and fiberglass index fell by 2.62% [4]. Industry Dynamics and Key Sub-industry Tracking - In the real estate sector, the number of transactions in 30 major cities increased to 28,513 units, up by 6,665 units week-on-week, with a total transaction area of 279.98 million square meters, reflecting an 18.19% increase [5]. - The average national price of cement was 428 RMB/ton, down by 3 RMB/ton or 0.70% from the previous week, with the largest decline in the Southwest region [6][9]. - The average price of float glass was 1,391.43 RMB/ton, down by 11.43 RMB/ton or 0.81% from the previous week, with the largest decline in the North China region [13][15]. Core Investment Insights - The cement industry has shown price stabilization and an increase in inventory levels, with a 10% decline in both monthly and cumulative production values [16]. - The glass industry has experienced price increases and a decrease in inventory, indicating improved supply-demand dynamics, despite ongoing demand challenges due to declining real estate completions [16]. Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, Qibin Group, and Weixing New Materials, with specific profit forecasts and corresponding price-to-earnings ratios provided for each company [17][18][21].

[table_main] 公司点评 [table_reportdate] 计算机 2024 年 11 月 25 日 行业研究 行业周报 投资评级：推荐 华为 Mate70 发售在即，微软加速 AI Agent 商业化落地 计算机周报 核心观点 行业表现对比图 一、摘要： 近期，微软召开"Microsoft ignite 2024"全球开发者大会，AI Agent 成 为本次大会的重点。微软发布的 AI Agent 包括简单易用的开发、运维一 站式平台 Azure AI Foundry、Azure AI Agent，同时也有集成在 Microsoft 365、Dynamics 365 等主打产品。具体来看，微软在 Microsoft 365 中的 SharePoint 集成了全新 AI 助理。员工可以使用和创建基于 SharePoint 企业数据的 Agent，从站点即时获取实时信息。例如，新员工可以使用 基于相关指导和入职材料的智能体快速上手。同时，微软还为 Team 提 供了笔记生成工具和翻译工具助理，后者将在 2025 年初进入预览阶段。 整体大会体现出微软力推 AI Agent 商业化的决心，其基础模型 ...

研 究 所 2024 年 11 月 25 日 [table_reportdate] [table_main] 行业周报 汽车 行业研究 行业周报 投资评级：推荐 10 月中国电池企业表现优异，中欧电动汽车谈判预期改善 汽车周报 国 都 证 券 一、摘要： 10 月中国动力和其他电池合计产量为 113.1GWh，环比增长 1.6%，同比 增长 45.5%，宁德时代、比亚迪双寡头格局继续维持。全球市场方面， 1-9 月全球动力电池装车 top10 全为亚洲企业，包含 6 家中国企业、3 家韩国公司和 1 家日本公司。欧洲方面 Northvolt 宣布破产，预计大众、 宝马等传统欧洲车企将不得不依赖亚洲电池企业构建其新能源供应链 体系，中欧电动汽车关税谈判预期改善，有望形成共赢结果。 [table_stockTrend] 证 券 研 究 报 告 二、行业观点更新: 1、基本面动态：据路透社 11 月 22 日报道， 欧洲议会贸易委员会主席 贝恩德·朗格向德国广播公司 n-tv 表示，布鲁塞尔和北京即将就中国 电动汽车进口关税问题达成解决方案。若中欧电池汽车谈判取得较好成 果，关税降低至合适水平，将有利于中国新能源汽 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" indicating a favorable outlook for the sector in the medium to long term [3][36]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the sector is currently experiencing a weak reality with limited catalysts, but medium to long-term valuations are supported by upcoming policies aimed at boosting consumption [3][5]. - The report suggests that while short-term sales feedback in the liquor segment remains weak, there is potential for recovery in the second half of 2025, driven by a rebound in demand and strategic policies from manufacturers [3][5]. - The report recommends strategic positioning in high-end liquor companies such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as consumer goods companies like Yili, Haitian Flavoring, and Tianwei Food [3][5][6]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - Moutai's prices have slightly declined, while Wuliangye and Guojiao prices remain stable; overall sales feedback is weak due to the off-peak season [5]. - Manufacturers are lowering year-end payment requirements to reduce inventory and stimulate end-user sales, with expectations for a "New Year" policy for 2025 [5]. - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in the liquor industry's mid-term outlook as domestic policies are implemented [5]. Consumer Goods - Sales feedback for consumer goods has shown slight recovery, with the industry stabilizing after early adjustments [6]. - The report maintains that consumer goods may outperform liquor in the fourth quarter, recommending companies in the restaurant supply chain and those with potential for profit exceeding expectations [6]. Market Catalysts - Potential catalysts for market recovery include improved macroeconomic conditions, rising consumer confidence, and a rebound in liquor prices [7].