研究所 [table_reportdate] 通信\电子 2025 年 2 月 24 日 行业周报 行业研究 行业周报 投资评级：推荐 国内各厂商全面接入 deepseek，算力需求加速释放 --通信及电子 20250224 周报 1）摘要 在国内 AI 公司深度求索发布大模型 DeepSeek-R1 之后持续获得高度关 注，包括腾讯、阿里在内的各大平台相继接入 DeepSeek，国内算力需 求有望得到进一步的激发。DeepSeek-R1 在性能上对标全球领先水平， 并且具有明显的成本优势，同时实现全面开源，DeepSeek R1 的发布及 其具备的各项优势，有望使得 AI 应用加速落地，端侧持续受益。随着 端侧算力的增强，端侧模型将在更多的领域中发挥重要作用，特别是在 需要实时处理和高隐私要求的应用场景中。全球 AI 应用商业化有望提 速，AI 应用场景将有望和消费电子等场景深度结合，进入百花齐放的 时期。在算力环节我们优先推荐国内晶圆代工环节，首推龙头中芯国际 和华宏公司，同时建议关注上游设备，半导体设备行业在成熟制程扩产、 国产化替代以及国产设备技术突破的共同推动下，保持快速增长，同时 在先进制程工艺以 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [3][22]. Core Insights - The prices of pure MDI and TDI have shifted from rising to falling due to demand not meeting expectations. MDI is currently facing a 41.5% tariff due to an anti-dumping investigation in the US, but the impact on the company's performance is expected to be limited as they adjust channels through Hungarian production [3][13]. - Potash prices continue to rise, with domestic upstream operating rates low and downstream demand expected to increase. The international market is experiencing supply tightness due to the closure of three mines by Uralkali, which will reduce output by at least 300,000 tons in the second quarter [3][12]. - The chemical industry is currently at a low point in terms of market conditions, but leading companies with absolute cost advantages are expected to perform well in the long term. The semiconductor industry is anticipated to recover gradually in 2024, benefiting from national policy support and significant room for import substitution [3][14]. Industry Performance Statistics and Analysis - From February 17 to February 21, 2025, the Shenwan Basic Chemical Index rose by 1.19%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 0.97%. The best-performing sectors included membrane materials, other rubber products, and carbon black, while the worst-performing sectors were phosphate fertilizers, nitrogen fertilizers, and soda ash [3][9]. - The price of TDI decreased by 12.82% to 12,925 RMB/ton due to low downstream demand and limited order quantities, leading to a significant drop in market prices [3][12]. - The price of pure MDI fell by 2.05% to 19,100 RMB/ton, with market activity subdued as downstream demand failed to meet expectations [3][13]. Data Tracking and Analysis - The price of potassium chloride is currently 2,954 RMB/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 5.61% and a monthly increase of 14.58% [3][12]. - The price of titanium dioxide has risen to 14,546 RMB/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.43% driven by cost pressures and the upcoming demand peak [3][11]. - The report highlights that the overall performance of chemical products has been active since the beginning of 2025, primarily due to cost-driven factors and supply-demand mismatches [3][13].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [3][26] Core Views - The sector experienced a rebound of 2.3% this week, primarily due to a systematic market rebound, although the fundamental feedback remains subdued [4][9] - The liquor sector has seen a relatively smooth landing during the Spring Festival, but it is now entering a low season with both demand and inventory under pressure, making it unlikely for the fundamentals to improve significantly [4][6] - The consumer goods sector continues to recover, with policies like "consumption vouchers" in cities like Shanghai potentially benefiting the restaurant supply chain [4][6] - The overall sector may lack short-term catalysts and is expected to remain relatively weak, but there is potential for gradual improvement throughout the year [4][6] Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The Spring Festival sales were relatively stable, but the industry is now entering a low season with weak demand, leading manufacturers to control supply and maintain prices [6] - The price of Moutai remains stable at around 2250 yuan per bottle, while Wuliangye is around 930 yuan per bottle [11] - The sector's fundamentals are becoming less influential on market trends, with a growing sensitivity to macroeconomic policies and capital changes [6] Consumer Goods Sector - The introduction of "consumption vouchers" in Shanghai is expected to have a marginally positive impact on consumer goods [6] - Sales during the Spring Festival showed a slight recovery, particularly in condiments and snacks, although overall performance remains relatively weak [6] - Raw material prices, such as milk and sugar, are on a downward trend, which is favorable for profit margins [6][17] Recommended Companies - Recommended companies include Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, Tianwei Food, Anjui Food, Yili, Haitian Flavoring, Qianwei Central Kitchen, and Yanjing Beer [4][6]

——电气设备行业周报 核心观点 股价走势图 [tab [ l te a_ bm le_ airn e 电气设备 2025 年 2 月 17 日 ]portdate] 公司点评 行业研究 行业周报 跟踪评级_维持：推荐 25 年 1 月央企集采定标 6.24GW，头部集中度提高 摘要 据风电头条统计，根据公开信息统计 25 年 1 月各省发改委核准风电项 目共 85 个，规模总计 11.3GW。其中，陆上风电项目 81 个，规模总计 10.21GW；海上风电项目 2 个，规模总计 1GW；分散式风电项目 2 个， 规模总计 87.5MW。 25 年 1 月，央企 45 个风电项目集采定标，总规模 6.24GW，涉及中国 电建、华能、国家能源集团、华润、中广核、华电、大唐、航空工业、 三峡、中国能建 10 家央企；三一重能、电气风电、运达股份排前三名， 占总中标容量的 54.6%，合计 3.4GW。 从价格方面来看，2025 年 1 月，陆上风电项目（含塔筒）最低中标单 价为 1466 元/kW，最高中标单价为 2750 元/kW；（不含塔筒）最低中 标单价为 1245 元/kW，最高中标单价为 1682 元/k ...

研究所 [table_reportdate] 食品饮料 国都证券 证券研究报告 2024 年 12 月 30 日 交流会板块修复反弹茅台批价 企稳[table_main] 行业周报 行业研究 行业周报 投资评级：推荐 酒企 25 年降速，渠道反馈仍偏谨慎 1）摘要 本周板块小幅回调，其中乳品饮料表现较优；24 年头部性酒企如茅台、 五粮液以及区域性酒企包括古井、今世缘完成较顺利；25 年降速成共识， 全年业绩目标为中个位数增长或保增长；临近旺季白酒渠道反馈仍偏谨 慎，动销疲弱渠道打款意愿较低，仍以去库存为主；餐饮供应链动销反 馈延续小幅回暖中；饮料和乳品以及休闲食品临近旺季环比回升；"微 信小店"短期情绪提振仍延续，中长期关注渠道结构变化对行业影响； 25 年食品饮料板块弱现实或延续但风险释放充分，一揽子政策支撑板块 中长期回升趋势；白酒 25H2 拐点可期，大众品经营已好转；估值底部区 间下，值得中长期配置，推荐泛餐饮链以及头部性企业。推荐公司包括： 贵州茅台、五粮液、山西汾酒、泸州老窖、天味食品、安井食品、伊利 股份、海天味业、千味央厨、燕京啤酒等。 2）行业观点更新 白酒：本周茅台、五粮液和国窖 157 ...

[table_reportdate] [table_main] 行业周报 汽车 研 究 所 2024 年 12 月 30 日 行业研究 行业周报 投资评级：推荐 11 月热销车型榜，比亚迪、特斯拉、小米表现优异 汽车周报 国 都 证 券 一、摘要： 汽车行业 1-11 月利润同比-7%，利润率 4.4%，盈利能力低于下游工业 企业平均利润率 6.1%的水平。规模效应对汽车产业的盈利影响较大， 因此各大车企的第一要务便是在市场中要保持较好的销量，降价促销为 当下的主流策略。新能源车销量榜单显示，比亚迪、特斯拉、小米旗下 主要车型均处于爆款状态，相关企业及上游供应商的基本面好于同行。 [table_stockTrend] 证 券 研 究 报 告 1、基本面动态：2024 年 1-11 月的汽车行业收入 94561 亿元，同比+3%； 成本 82950 亿元，同比+4%；利润 4132 亿元，同比-7.3%；汽车行业利 润率 4.4%，相对于下游工业企业利润率 6.1%的平均水平，汽车行业仍 偏低。其中 11 月的汽车行业收入 11241 亿元，同比+9%；成本 9837 亿 元，+11%；利润 374 亿元，同比 ...

研究 所 国都证券 [table_relation] [table_reportdate] 建筑材料 2024 年 12 月 30 日 [table_main] 行业周报 行业研究 行业周报 投资评级：推荐 水泥和玻璃价格有所下跌 --建筑材料行业周报 核心观点 行业表现对比图 摘要：上周申万建筑材料指数下跌了 0.59 个百分点，跑输沪深 300 指数 1.95 个百分点。下游房地产方面，上周一二三线城市商品房成交 套数和面积都有所增加。水泥价格方面，全国水泥均价有所下跌，中南、 西南、东北和华北地区水泥价格下跌，其他地区水泥价格与前一周持平。 全国水泥库存和熟料库存有所减少，目前均处于中等水平。玻璃价格方 面，全国浮法玻璃均价有所下跌，西南、东北、华北、华东和华南地区 玻璃价格下跌，其他地区玻璃价格与前一周持平。浮法玻璃全国企业库 存有所减少，目前处于中等水平。本周推荐的个股为海螺水泥、华新水 泥、旗滨集团和伟星新材。 [table_stockTrend] 来源：iFind 证券研究报告 一、建筑材料市场表现回顾 上周申万建筑材料指数下跌了 0.59 个百分点，沪深 300 指数上涨 了 1.36 个百分 ...

研 究 所 2024 年 12 月 30 日 [table_reportdate] [table_main] 行业周报 家用电器 行业研究 行业周报 投资评级：推荐 电动自行车加速换新，2025 年出货弹性值得期待 国 都 证 券 —家用电器行业周报 市场表现：家用电器（SW）板块前一周+0.9%，在 31 个申万一级行业 [table_stockTrend] 中，表现排名第 5 位，跑输沪深 300 指数 0.43pct。估值方面来看，截 止 2024-12-27，家用电器（SW）市盈率（TTM，剔除负值）为 15.6x， 位列申万 31 个一级行业的第 26 位，估值处于相对较低水平。【IFind】 核心观点 行业表现对比图 [研ta究bl_员re：s郝ea卓rc凡h] 资料来源：ifind、国都证券 [able_relation] 独立性申明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，国都证券对这些信息的准确性和完整性不做任何保证。分析逻辑基于 作者的职业理解，通过合理判断并得出结论，力求客观、公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意、影响，特此声明。 电 话： 010-84183386 Email： haozhuo ...

[table_stockTrend] [table_relation] 研 究 所 2024 年 12 月 30 日 2025年医药投资展望 —医药生物行业周报 行业周报 国 都 证 券 核心观点 一、周报摘要 上周医药生物板块下跌，跑输沪深 300 指数，所有子板块均下跌，医疗 服务领跌。展望 2025 年医药行业，我们认为随着医保改革持续推进， 在医保基金"以收定支、收支平衡，坚决防范医保基金当期赤字"工作任 务的要求下，叠加国内老龄化程度持续加深等因素，医保控费趋势长期 持续。但短期来看，得益于城乡居民医保筹资能力有望提升，以及延迟 退休启动职工医保缴费年限延长，医保支出压力有望边际改善。此外， 医保局不断完善"1+3+N"的多层次医疗保障体系，医保平台数据赋能商 保有望提速，推动商保加速发展，持续带来增量资金，提升对创新药、 创新医疗器械以及高端医疗服务的支付能力。其他政策方面，年内监管 层强化了并购重组作为支持经济转型升级、实现高质量发展的市场工具 的作用，医药生物作为新质生产力的代表方向，有望成为并购重组交易 最为活跃的板块，行业内并购重组有望提速，有助于打造具有国际竞争 力的药械公司。投资层面， ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an investment rating of "Recommended" for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [3][53]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector experienced a slight decline last week but outperformed the CSI 300 index, with all sub-sectors showing a downturn, particularly in medical services [3]. - The recent release of the 10th batch of national drug procurement documents indicates stricter qualification reviews and a more competitive environment, which may lead to increased price reductions for selected drugs [4][8]. - The integration of commercial health insurance with the national medical insurance platform is expected to accelerate, benefiting domestic innovative drugs, medical devices, and high-end medical services [9]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The 10th batch of national drug procurement includes 62 varieties with a total of 135 specifications, primarily focusing on injectable drugs, which account for nearly 60% of the total [4]. - The total sales of the 62 varieties in 2023 reached approximately 55 billion yuan, with over 20 varieties exceeding 1 billion yuan in sales [4]. Regulatory Changes - The procurement cycle has been adjusted from four years to three years, with stricter qualification requirements for participating companies [4][8]. - The new rules eliminate the previous condition that allowed for selection based on a price reduction of 50% or more, indicating a shift towards a more competitive bidding process [4][8]. Market Dynamics - The recent updates to the traditional Chinese medicine procurement list in Anhui Province have removed certain products, alleviating market concerns regarding the expansion of procurement categories [10]. - The report highlights the potential for valuation recovery for related companies following these updates [10]. Performance Tracking - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector saw a decline of 2.36% last week, ranking 22nd among 31 sub-sectors, while the CSI 300 index fell by 2.60% [11]. - The report notes that the sector's price-to-earnings ratio remains below the median level since 2010, indicating potential undervaluation [11]. Financial Data - From January to October 2024, the basic medical insurance fund's income reached 2.3065 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8.93% year-on-year increase [22]. - The cumulative revenue of the domestic pharmaceutical manufacturing industry from January to September 2024 was 1.8447 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.2% [28].