Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Recommended" [2][8] Core Views - The impact of the expected decrease in electricity prices in Pakistan is considered limited for the company, as the demand for energy storage remains strong due to ongoing power shortages and outdated infrastructure [2] - The company has set a sales target of 500,000 to 600,000 energy storage inverters for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of over 25% [2] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 3 billion to 4.5 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18.2, 15.6, and 12.2 [2][3] Financial Data Forecast - Main business revenue is projected to grow from 7.48 billion yuan in 2023 to 11.8 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 57.8% [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to increase from 1.79 billion yuan in 2023 to 3 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 67.5% [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 2.78 yuan in 2023 to 4.65 yuan in 2024 [3] Market Performance - The company has seen a significant increase in inverter demand in Pakistan, with monthly sales rising from 3,000-4,000 units to 15,000 units since December 2023 [2] - The company is experiencing strong performance in the Asia, Africa, and Latin America markets, with a diversified risk profile and recovering growth in the European market [2]

研 究 所 2024 年 9 月 24 日 [tab [tlae b_ lem_ra e i p n o ] rtdate] 公司点评 商贸零售 公司研究 公司点评 跟踪评级_维持：推荐 永辉超市（601933）：名创优品入主，溢价彰显发展信心 ——永辉超市（601933）公司点评 国 都 证 券 公司公告。公司股东牛奶公司、京东世贸和宿迁涵邦（系京东世贸的一 致行动人）拟通过协议转让的方式向骏才国际分别转让其所持有的公司 19.13 亿股股份、3.67 亿股股份和 3.88 亿股股份，分别占公司总股本的 21.08%、4.05%和 4.27%。 [table_stock] 本次交易完成后，公司第一大股东将变更为骏才国际，合计持有公司股 份 29.40%。骏才国际及其实控方名创优品将与永辉超市，携手向品质 零售模式转型。 证 券 研 究 报 告 此次交易对应每股价格 2.35 元，9 月 23 日永辉超市收盘价为 2.25 元/ 股，溢价 4.4%，总交易金额 62.7 亿元人民币。 根据永辉超市和名创优品各自公告，名创在国内门店数约 4115 家，永 辉目前在全国的门店数约 850 家，二者均为国内规模优势 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Recommend" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook with expected stock price growth of 5-15% over the next 6 months [3][9] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the dairy industry with strong comprehensive advantages and is expected to achieve steady growth in the future [1] - Recent policy support for the dairy sector, including measures to stabilize production and promote consumption, has boosted market sentiment [1][2] - The company has completed inventory reduction in H1 2024 and is expected to see improved profitability in 2025 as upstream capacity rationalizes and demand recovers [1] - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio of over 70% and a dividend yield of 4.7%, while also engaging in share buybacks to enhance shareholder returns [1] - The stock is currently trading at 12x 2024 PE, offering attractive valuation and long-term investment value [1] Financial Projections - Revenue is forecast to grow from 1,262 billion yuan in 2024E to 1,420 billion yuan in 2026E, with annual growth rates of 3.1% to 4.5% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 104 billion yuan in 2024E to 134 billion yuan in 2026E, despite a temporary decline in 2025E [3] - EPS is projected to rise from 2.04 yuan in 2024E to 2.11 yuan in 2026E [3] - The P/E ratio is estimated to remain stable between 12.1x to 13.1x from 2024E to 2026E [3] Company Fundamentals - The company has a total market capitalization of 162.5 billion yuan and total assets of 151.6 billion yuan [5] - The stock has traded between 21.37 yuan and 29.29 yuan over the past 52 weeks [5] - The company has 636.6 million total shares outstanding, with 630.5 million shares in free float [5] - Book value per share stands at 8.41 yuan [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Recommended" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu, indicating a positive outlook for the company and the industry as a whole [2][12]. Core Viewpoints - The industry is expected to experience a sustainable rebound due to recent policy stimuli, which are likely to benefit the sector in the short term [2]. - Despite a slowdown in company performance, Shanxi Fenjiu maintains a strong absolute growth rate compared to its peers, supported by its leading position in the light aroma liquor segment [3]. - The company's product matrix is well-structured, with major products like Qinghua, Laobai Fen, Panama, and Bolifen effectively countering the overall market weakness [3]. - The valuation of the company is currently at a low point, with a TTM valuation in the 1st percentile over the past decade, indicating significant potential for recovery [4]. - Profit forecasts for 2024-2026 project net profits of 12.8 billion, 15.3 billion, and 18.0 billion respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17x, 14x, and 12x, supporting the "Recommended" rating [4][8]. Industry Summary - The recent introduction of a series of policies is expected to stimulate the market, leading to a potential recovery in the industry [2]. - The demand side shows signs of improvement, albeit limited, with expectations of a gradual increase in sales as the low base effect kicks in [2]. - The overall sentiment in the market remains cautious, particularly in the lead-up to the National Day holiday, with concerns about volume and price pressures [2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an investment rating of "Recommended" for the engineering machinery industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the next six months [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights that excavator sales in September 2024 are estimated to be around 16,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 12%. The market is showing signs of recovery, with a noticeable rebound in the domestic market and gradual positive growth in the export market [2][3]. - Domestic sales are projected to reach 7,300 units, representing a year-on-year increase of nearly 17%. The domestic market is entering a stable upward trend, driven by the demand for small excavator replacements as the rainy season ends [2]. - The export market is expected to see sales of 8,700 units, with a year-on-year growth of nearly 9%. This growth is attributed to the destocking of domestic brands and a low base from the previous year, with moderate recovery in demand from overseas regions [3]. Summary by Sections Domestic Market - The domestic market is experiencing a significant recovery, with excavator sales expected to grow by over 8% year-on-year. The demand is primarily driven by the replacement needs for small excavators, and the mid-sized excavator market is also beginning to show signs of growth due to low base effects and replacement cycles [2][3]. Export Market - The export market is forecasted to improve, with a year-on-year decline in sales narrowing to 8% for the first nine months of 2024. The second half of the year is expected to see a positive turnaround in excavator exports, particularly in regions like Asia, Africa, and Latin America, where growth rates are relatively strong [3]. Overall Industry Outlook - The overall outlook for the engineering machinery industry remains positive, with expectations of continued growth in both domestic and export markets. The report maintains a recommendation for companies such as XCMG, SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, LiuGong, and Zhejiang Dingli, indicating confidence in their performance amid the recovering market conditions [2][3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [2] Core Views - A short-term rebound in the food and beverage sector is anticipated, driven by recent significant policy announcements that led to a 6.73% increase in the sector [2] - Although the fundamental demand in the sector is weak, the sector has experienced significant declines, with TTM valuation percentiles being below 10-year averages, indicating potential for valuation recovery [2] - The white liquor segment is expected to have a stronger rebound due to its higher dependency on economic conditions and its significant price drop, with recommendations for stocks like Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu [3] - For consumer staples, a relative improvement in fundamentals is expected, with recommendations for high dividend yield stocks and long-term growth leaders such as Anjijia Food, Yili, Haitian Flavoring, and Tianwei Food [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [2][20]. Core Insights - Kweichow Moutai plans to repurchase shares worth 3-6 billion yuan, which is expected to enhance shareholder returns and potentially catalyze a rebound in the sector [2][3]. - Recent demand tracking indicates continued weakness, reflected in the declining prices of Moutai, with insufficient seasonal effects and a decrease in liquor sales [2][3]. - The report suggests that while short-term demand may not significantly improve, the long-term investment value of the sector is becoming apparent due to low TTM valuations [2][3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Moutai's share repurchase is seen as a demonstration effect for the industry, with recent price declines attributed to increased shipments and weak demand [3][7]. - The overall liquor market is in a bottoming phase, awaiting signs of improvement in demand or macroeconomic conditions [3][7]. Performance Statistics - The food and beverage sector has shown weak performance since the beginning of the year, with the liquor segment experiencing significant declines [5][6]. - The report notes a slight rebound in the sector due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with specific segments like leisure foods showing a 4.2% increase [5][6]. Key Companies and Recommendations - Recommended companies include Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, and others, focusing on high-end liquor and growth-oriented consumer goods [2][3][7]. - The report highlights that the dividend yield for many companies is around 4%, with a projected PE ratio of approximately 15x for 2024 [3][7]. Market Catalysts - Potential catalysts for the sector include improvements in macroeconomic conditions, rising consumer confidence, and increased CPI or restaurant growth rates [3][7].

[table_relation] 研 究 所 2024 年 08 月 19 日 [table_reportdate] [table_main] 行业周报 医药生物 行业研究 行业周报 投资评级：推荐 国内新冠疫情数据上升，猴痘疫情再次升级为 PHEIC —医药生物行业周报 国 都 证 券 核心观点 一、周报摘要 上周医药板块市场关注度主要聚焦在新冠、猴痘疫情等事件热点催化， 相关概念个股表现亮眼，但持续性有待验证。目前时点处于中报密集披 露期，业绩表现是核心催化，上周部分披露中报的公司业绩表现低于预 期，股价承压。Q2 以来医药板块已有较大幅度的调整，市场对业绩预 期已基本 price in。考虑 2023 年 Q3 受反腐等事件影响，业绩基数较低， 部分公司 2024Q3 业绩有望同比改善明显，中报后或是良好布局时点。 此外，近期安徽省发布全国首个县域医共体设备更新项目采购意向，医 疗设备更新项目有望陆续落地，相关设备公司有望受益。 证 券 研 究 报 告 二、行业观点更新 美版医保谈判结果出炉。8 月 15 日，美国联邦医疗保险（Medicare）医 疗补助服务中心（CMS）完成与企业的谈判，并公布首批参 ...

研 究 所 2024 年 08 月 19 日 [table_reportdate] [table_main] 行业周报 汽车 行业研究 行业周报 投资评级：推荐 7 月出口、新能源带动汽车业结构性增长 汽车周报 国 都 证 券 证 券 研 究 报 告 核心观点 行业表现对比图 一、摘要： 中报披露集中期临近，板块投资更倾向于中报业绩预期较好的龙头企 业。7 月汽车整体销售下滑，传统燃油车面临更大压力，出口、新能源 车、锂电池、充电等领域保持增长，全年销量预期开始向下修正，我们 判断 2024 年很难达到市场预期的 3-5%，预计年增速约 2%，下半年面临 较大的减速压力。结构方面，报废补贴提升至 2 万元，进一步推动新能 源车对老旧燃油车的替代。 二、行业观点更新: 基本面动态：7 月汽车销量同比下降 5%，电池装车同比增长 29%，充电 量同比增长 54%。数据显示，当下汽车产业链并不具有系统的成长性， 重点增量源自新能源汽车产业链，随着电车渗透率的额提升，销量方面 已经进入中低速增长阶段，但保有量的持续增长将持续拉动电车后市场 的需求，行业的主要投资机会在电动化、智能化的升级需求领域。 板块涨跌催化：即将 ...

研 究 所 2024 年 8 月 13 日 [tab [tlae b_ lem_ra e i p n o ] rtdate] 公司点评 电气设备 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...