证券研究报告 行业研究|行业专题研究|电力（214101） 核电电价市场化比例提升利好运营商 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年07月30日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 核电上网电价，大部分为计划电量上网电价，电价稳定确保运营商整体业绩，少部分是市场电 量上网电价，受电力市场供需影响，但市场结算价格相对稳定。随着电力市场化加速推进，市 场化交易电量占比提升，市场化进展较快为江苏、浙江、福建、广东等电力供需紧张省份，核 电市场化比例提升后，电价有望具备向上弹性，推荐中国核电、中国广核。 |分析师及联系人 贺朝晖 SAC：S0590521100002 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 16 行业研究|行业专题研究 glzqdatemark2 2024年07月30日 电力 核电电价市场化比例提升利好运营商 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 上次建议： 强于大市 相对大盘走势 电力 沪深300 -30% -13% 3% 20% 2023/7 2023/11 2024/3 2024/7 相关报告 1、《电力：15 地区代购电价上涨，12 地区开 启夏季尖峰时段》2024.07.16 2、 ...

证券研究报告 非金融公司|公司点评|梅花生物（600873） 业绩符合预期，重注合成生物学 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年07月30日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2024 年半年报实现营业收入 126 亿元，同比-7.0%；实现归母净利润 14.7 亿元，同比+7.5%； 基本每股收益 0.5 元，同比+11.1%。上半年盈利水平同比增长，主要受益于多产品的协同和 经营效率的提升。苏氨酸、98%赖氨酸销售价格同比上涨约 13%，黄原胶、苏氨酸新扩产能满 产满销，同时公司继续提升自动化和精细管理水平，综合毛利率从去年同期 18.43%提升至 19.50%。值得关注的是，公司重注合成生物学产业，实现了从基因组编辑到产品落地的全链 条，致力于用新技术推动氨基酸的进一步降本和商业化。 |分析师及联系人 许隽逸 申起昊 SAC：S0590524060003 SAC：S0590524070002 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 非金融公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年07月30日 梅花生物(600873) 业绩符合预期，重注合成生物学 | --- | - ...

证券研究报告 非金融公司|公司点评|海大集团（002311） 饲料销量逆势增长，养殖业绩显著改善 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年07月30日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 公司披露 2024 半年度报告，实现营收 522.96 亿元，同比下降 0.84%：归母净利 21.25 亿元， 同比增长 93.15%。2024H1 公司饲料外销量 1081 万吨（同比+8%），其中①水产料外销量同比 增约 10%，普水料同比增 15%-20%；高档膨化鱼料同比持平微增；虾蟹料同比增 8%，其中南美 白对虾料同比增约 20%；②禽料外销量同比增约 14%；③猪料外销量同比下滑 7%；④海外销量 超 100 万吨（同比增 30+%）。种苗实现营收约 7 亿元，同比微降。动保实现营收 4.66 亿元（同 比-23%）。 |分析师及联系人 王明琦 马鹏 SAC：S0590524040003 SAC：S0590524050001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 非金融公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年07月30日 海大集团(002311) 饲料销量逆势增长，养殖业绩 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Huazhu Group, marking the first coverage of the company [6][16]. Core Views - Huazhu Group has established a competitive barrier through a combination of brand strength, technological innovation, and traffic management, positioning itself as a platform-based enterprise. The company has significant expansion potential both domestically and internationally, with a focus on middle and high-end markets [9][17]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Huazhu Group, founded in 2005, has become one of the fastest-growing hotel groups globally, with a hotel count CAGR of 20.8% and revenue CAGR of 18.0% from 2013 to 2023. As of March 2024, the company operates 9,817 hotels with 955,700 rooms across 30+ brands in 18 countries [22][25]. Industry Update - The hotel industry is experiencing a cyclical recovery, with supply returning to pre-pandemic levels. By the end of 2023, the number of hotels in China had recovered to 96% of pre-pandemic levels, driven by sustained leisure demand and rational business travel recovery [9][59]. Core Advantages - Huazhu's competitive edge lies in its integrated approach of brand, technology, and traffic management. The company is well-positioned to capture market share as it continues to expand into smaller cities and enhance its brand portfolio through mergers and internal integration [9][14]. Key Highlights - The company is expected to achieve revenues of CNY 242.4 billion, CNY 261.2 billion, and CNY 281.1 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 10.8%, 7.7%, and 7.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be CNY 42.5 billion, CNY 49.1 billion, and CNY 56.7 billion for the same years [16][12]. Financial Data and Valuation - The report anticipates a three-year CAGR of 8.7% for revenue and 11.6% for net profit, with price-to-earnings ratios of 16x, 14x, and 12x for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [16][12]. Investment Focus - The report emphasizes Huazhu's ongoing expansion into lower-tier cities and its potential for upward brand migration, alongside a gradual internationalization strategy that is expected to enhance profitability [9][17].

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业专题研究|商贸零售（2145） 消费税改或影响利益分配，关注百货、 免税机遇 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年07月29日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 基于我们对于消费税改革的探讨，改革或稳步推进，短期增量贡献有限，但是分配格局或有变 化。就央地利益再分配而言，预计广东、山东、上海等地的财力绝对值增长更明显，贵州、云 南、甘肃等西部省份财力边际提升更积极。着眼产业链利益再分配，征税环节后移有望使得强 势零售商短期受益。消费税收入稳步导向消费地有望激励地方政府改善消费环境，助力地方 消费长期向好，建议关注王府井等百货零售商。 基于征税范围扩充的预期，有税渠道商品价格上行或有望利好免税渠道, 建议关注中国中免。 |分析师及联系人 邓文慧 曹晶 SAC：S0590522060001 SAC：S0590523080001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 23 行业研究|行业专题研究 glzqdatemark2 2024年07月29日 商贸零售 消费税改或影响利益分配，关注百货、免税 机遇 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 上次建议： 强于大市 相对大盘走 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究 | 行业专题研究 | 物流 (214203) 快递行业６月数据解读： 电商促销前置 爭致 6 月件量增速故缓 诗券必闻读核李某页的支委声明 2024年07月29日 报告 | 报告委总 交 618 发贷访更影响, 6 月快递件圣程浅吗茶, 6 月增速环比 5 月下降 6.1pct。别除 国家邮政 爲數據口经调类影响后，6 月準標价格同比降幅为 7. 73%，降幅环比 5 月扩大 1. 11pct，爲新 地区出现价格途动，行业仍处于温科充量状态。6 月份，总统乘中放将数 CR8 为 85.3，环比 5 月装升 0.1. 伴随行业件查增选货期上待，价格充备类体可控，预计 2024 年快递长块盈利能 力相对 2023 年建茶纾友，看好细介行业是科能力稳定的无关标的。 | 分析师及联系人 手奇 SAC: $0590522120002 首页_ 手夫琛 靖秀必闻读核李永真的支委声明 1 / 11 行业务党 | 行业专题研究 2024-07 月 29 日 物流 快递行业 6 月 数据解读： 电商促销前置导致 6 月件量增速故缘 赵京难汉： 受予大齐（疫材） 上达成汉： 这予大方 相对大血大分 10% ...

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业专题研究|食品饮料（2134） 乳企渠道调整见效，下半年销售或修复 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年07月28日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 从 2024 年春节后开始，经过 4-5 个月，我们认为，乳企的渠道调整工作已取得一定成效，已 步入扫尾阶段，目前终端产品价格企稳甚至部分产品已经回升，大日期产品加速消化。供给端 来看，上游产能加速去化，且高温天气下原奶单产降低，供应量或减弱；需求端来看，下半年 双节等带动消费量增长，我们看好渠道调整后乳企有望在业绩端有所改善，推荐伊利股份、蒙 牛乳业、新乳业。 |分析师及联系人 刘景瑜 陆冀为 SAC：S0590524030005 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 10 行业研究|行业专题研究 glzqdatemark2 2024年07月28日 食品饮料 乳企渠道调整见效，下半年销售或修复 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 上次建议： 强于大市 相对大盘走势 食品饮料 沪深300 -40% -23% -7% 10% 2023/7 2023/11 2024/3 2024/7 相关报告 1、《食品饮料：2024 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 12.861 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.86%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.111 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.07% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.089 billion yuan, an increase of 1.68% year-on-year. The performance met expectations [10][11] - The company plans to distribute a mid-term dividend of 1.5 yuan per 10 shares (tax included) [10] - The core subsidiary, Yichang Renfu, achieved a revenue of 4.502 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.78%, and a net profit of 1.425 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.59%, which was the main driver of the company's performance [11] Financial Summary - The company expects revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 26.318 billion yuan, 28.282 billion yuan, and 30.375 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.31%, 7.46%, and 7.40% [13] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 2.465 billion yuan, 2.828 billion yuan, and 3.207 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 15.51%, 14.71%, and 13.38% respectively [13] - The company is a leader in the anesthetic drug market, and the report maintains a "Buy" rating [13] Business Development - The company is expanding its product line around its core anesthetic products, with new approvals for various formulations aimed at different medical scenarios, including ICU pain management and cancer pain [12] - The report indicates that the management expenses are expected to improve in the second half of the year [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, reflecting confidence in its future performance [5] Core Viewpoints - The company's H1 2024 revenue reached 1667.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.88%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 10.37% to 228.65 billion yuan [2][7] - Q2 2024 revenue was 869.96 billion yuan, down 13.18% year-on-year but up 9.06% quarter-on-quarter, with net profit increasing by 13.40% year-on-year and 17.55% quarter-on-quarter to 123.55 billion yuan [2][7] - The company's global market share in power batteries reached 37.5% in the first five months of 2024, maintaining its leading position [8] - The company plans to open offline stores showcasing over 50 models with the "CATL inside" branding in August 2024 [8] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 3835.0 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%, while net profit is expected to grow by 11.8% to 493.3 billion yuan [10] - For 2025, revenue is forecasted to increase by 18.0% to 4527.0 billion yuan, with net profit growing by 16.6% to 575.3 billion yuan [10] - The company's EPS for 2024 is estimated at 11.2 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 17x [10] Market Position and Technology - The company's global market share in energy storage reached 40%, with plans to further expand through innovative technologies [9] - The company introduced the world's first high-safety skateboard chassis technology, supporting 5C ultra-fast charging and 120km/h collision safety [9] - The company showcased its Tianheng energy storage system at Europe's largest battery and energy storage exhibition and partnered with Rolls-Royce to enter the EU and UK markets [9] Financial Data and Valuation - The company's total assets are projected to reach 9776.34 billion yuan by 2026, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 62.66% [13] - The company's ROE is expected to remain above 20% from 2024 to 2026, indicating strong profitability [13] - The company's EV/EBITDA ratio is forecasted to decrease from 9.7x in 2024 to 7.2x in 2026, reflecting improving valuation metrics [13] Industry and Competitive Landscape - The global power battery installation reached 285.4GWh in the first five months of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 23% [8] - The company's domestic market share in power batteries reached 46.4% in the first half of 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 3.0% in installation volume [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.26 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decline of 11.49%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 265 million yuan, down 3.73% year-on-year [2][28] - In Q2 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 900 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.98%, and a net profit of 117 million yuan, down 12.59% year-on-year [2][28] - Strong growth was observed in the company's oral liquid and gel products, with revenues of 544 million yuan and 21 million yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 28.60% and 107.87% [2][9] Financial Performance Summary - The company continues to push for new product development, with three NDA varieties in traditional Chinese medicine and two completed Phase III clinical studies [10] - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 5.76 billion yuan, 6.74 billion yuan, and 7.87 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.27%, 17.04%, and 16.72% respectively [10] - Net profit projections for the same period are 653 million yuan, 787 million yuan, and 956 million yuan, with growth rates of 21.63%, 20.57%, and 21.40% respectively [10] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.12 yuan, 1.35 yuan, and 1.64 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [10] Financial Data and Valuation - The company's revenue for 2022 was 4.35 billion yuan, increasing to 4.87 billion yuan in 2023, with an expected revenue of 5.76 billion yuan in 2024 [11] - The EBITDA for 2024 is projected to be 1.37 billion yuan, with a net profit of 653 million yuan [11] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 20.3 in 2022 to 13.5 in 2024, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [11]