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业绩短期承压,在手订单充沛
Guolian Securities· 2024-04-29 16:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 11.48 CNY, based on a 2024 PE of 18 times [10][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.813 billion CNY in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 53.93%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 292 million CNY, up 6.37% year-on-year [2][3]. - The offshore wind business has shown significant growth, with revenue increasing by 173% year-on-year, while the onshore wind equipment revenue grew by 31% [3]. - The company has a strong order backlog, with total orders amounting to 4.13 billion CNY as of Q1 2024, indicating potential benefits from an improving wind power market [4][10]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company experienced a revenue decline of 18.38% year-on-year, with a net profit decrease of 39.69% [2]. - The gross margin for 2023 was 18.09%, a slight decrease of 0.28 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 6.11%, down 2.53 percentage points [3]. - The company’s revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 6.278 billion CNY, 7.879 billion CNY, and 9.668 billion CNY, with growth rates of 30.45%, 25.50%, and 22.69% respectively [10]. Order Backlog and Capacity Expansion - The company has a robust order backlog, with 3.195 billion CNY in onshore wind equipment orders and 866 million CNY in offshore wind equipment orders [4]. - The company’s overseas business is expected to continue growing, with foreign orders amounting to 1.5 billion CNY as of Q1 2024 [10]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be 0.66 CNY, with a PE ratio of 12 times [10]. - The report indicates a steady decline in the PE ratio from 26.3 in 2022 to an estimated 11.8 in 2024, reflecting improved valuation as earnings grow [6][10].
2023A&2024Q1业绩点评:Q4以来外销延续高增,内销逐季改善
Guolian Securities· 2024-04-29 16:00
证券研究报告 新宝股份(002705) 2023A&2024Q1 业绩点评: 23 年毛销差提升 1.2pct,毛利率同比+1.6pct,其中外销随着规模恢复叠 加汇率助益,毛利率同比+2.4pct 至 21.0%,达到历史较高水平。23 年公司 拟锁定汇率影响,积极套保对冲波动,全年汇率对业绩绝对值的影响基本 正负相抵(①财务费用中汇兑收益 8554 万;②套保对冲,亏损 7947 万), 但因为 22 年汇率对业绩正面贡献较大(汇兑收益 2.45 亿,套保损失 7462 万),所以 23 年汇率波动对整体净利率同比有所拖累。24Q1 毛销差同比 +0.3pct 且管理/研发费用率合计同比-1.1pct,经营性盈利表现较优;汇率 对业绩的影响基本相抵(汇兑收益同比+7886 万;套保损失同比+8041 万)。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------|--------|------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------- ...
电解液业绩短期承压,海外布局稳健推进
Guolian Securities· 2024-04-29 16:00
证券研究报告 公 2024年04月29日 司 报 告 新宙邦(300037) │ 行 业: 电力设备/电池 公 投资评级: 买入(维持) 司 当前价格: 33.79元 电解液业绩短期承压,海外布局稳健推进 季 目标价格: 40.75元 报 点 事件: 评 基本数据 公司发布2024Q1报告,24Q1实现营收15.15亿元,同比-8.00%;归母净利 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 753.88/542.46 润1.65亿元,同比-32.80%;扣非净利润1.84亿元,同比-19.52%。 流通A股市值(百万元) 18,329.66 原材料价格下跌影响净利,有机氟业务增长强劲 每股净资产(元) 12.15 截止24年4月19日六氟磷酸锂价格已跌至7.18万元/吨,为近三年来价 资产负债率(%) 41.77 格底部。电解液行业整体产能过剩叠加竞争加剧导致公司电解液产品价格 一年内最高/最低(元) 53.29/29.30 持续磨底,影响净利。23 年公司有机氟营收 14.25 亿元,同比+21.45%, 23Q4海斯福二期开始试产,各产线已基本实现稳定产出,公司在有机氟领 股价相对走势 域技术领先地位稳固,我们预计 ...
六氟盈利探底,推进氟化工全产业链布局
Guolian Securities· 2024-04-29 15:30
2024 年 04 月 29 日 公司发布 2024 年一季报,2024Q1 实现营业收入 21.29 亿元,同比-13.87%, 环比-32.43%;实现归母净利润 0.40 亿元,同比-63.92%,环比-16.27%; 实现扣非净利润 0.08 亿元,同比-90.46%,环比-87.09%。 1)公司现具备年产 6 万吨电子级氢氟酸的产能,其中半导体级 2 万吨,光 伏级 4 万吨。公司半导体级氢氟酸现已批量供应台积电、三星等头部半导 体制造企业,目前年产 3 万吨超净高纯电子级氢氟酸项目和年产 3 万吨湿 电子化学品项目正在建设当中。2)公司子公司中宁硅业生产的电子级硅烷、 高纯四氟化硅、纳米硅粉等产品已进入国内外知名半导体和新能源企业供 应链。随着产能的落地和客户的顺利扩张,公司电子信息材料有望放量。 我们预计公司 2024-2026 年营业收入分别为 142.44/179.45/211.74 亿元, 同 比 增 速 分 别 为 19.33%/25.98%/18.00% , 归 母 净 利 润 分 别 为 5.30/9.58/14.15 亿元,对应增速分别为 3.92%/80.73%/47.80%, ...
2024年一季报点评:短期仍有基数压力,关注后续经营拐点
Guolian Securities· 2024-04-29 15:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7]. Core Views - The company experienced a slight revenue decline of 4.58% year-on-year in Q1 2024, attributed to high base effects from the previous year and subdued domestic demand in the small appliance sector [2][3]. - Despite short-term pressures on profitability due to competitive market conditions and declining average selling prices, the company is expected to benefit from innovation and brand strength, leading to potential market share gains in the long term [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.194 billion, a decrease of 4.58% year-on-year, and a net profit of 151 million, down 8.53% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin decreased by 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the sales expense ratio increased by 2.3 percentage points [3]. - The company’s net profit margin fell by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, with a significant drop in non-recurring profit contributions [3]. Market Dynamics - The small appliance industry is transitioning into a phase of stock competition, with increased challenges for smaller brands due to a shift from e-commerce growth to traffic competition [4]. - The report anticipates a recovery in domestic e-commerce sales, with a narrowing decline in traditional e-commerce channels expected in Q4 2023 [2]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024 and 2025 are set at 5.334 billion and 6.022 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.20% and 12.89% [5][6]. - The projected net profit for 2024 and 2025 is 517 million and 585 million respectively, with growth rates of 16.20% and 13.09% [5][6]. Valuation - The target price for the company is set at 66.00, based on a 20x PE ratio for 2024 [5].
一季度货运量同比下滑,业绩有所承压
Guolian Securities· 2024-04-29 15:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 7.56 yuan, based on a 12x PE for 2024 [6][4]. Core Insights - In 2023, the company achieved operating revenue of 81.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.95%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.93 billion yuan, up 6.55% [2]. - The company announced a three-year dividend plan, committing to a minimum payout ratio of 55% of net profit for 2023-2025, with a cash dividend of 0.44 yuan per share in 2023 [3]. - The first quarter of 2024 saw a decline in freight volume by 7.92% year-on-year, leading to a revenue drop of 16.65% [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a freight volume of 730 million tons in 2023, a 7.3% increase, with coal transportation accounting for 620 million tons, up 10.7% [2]. - The revenue from freight business in 2023 was 61.24 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.8%, while passenger transport revenue surged by 119% to 8.92 billion yuan [2]. - The projected operating revenues for 2024-2026 are 81.84 billion yuan, 84.21 billion yuan, and 86.61 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 1.02%, 2.89%, and 2.85% [4][5]. Earnings Forecast - The forecasted net profits for 2024-2026 are 11.07 billion yuan, 11.37 billion yuan, and 11.62 billion yuan, with expected growth rates of -7.25%, 2.78%, and 2.22% respectively [4][5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.63 yuan, 0.65 yuan, and 0.66 yuan for the same period [4][5]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is estimated at 11.8 for 2024, with a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.9 [5]. - The enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio is projected to be 5.5 for 2024, indicating a stable valuation outlook [5].
互联网金融平台:科技与牌照共驱流量变现
Guolian Securities· 2024-04-29 13:06
证券研究报告 行 2024年04月29日 业 报 投资建议: 强于大市(维持) 告 非银金融 │ 上次建议: 强于大市 行 业 相对大盘走势 互联网金融平台:科技与牌照共驱流量变现 深 非银金融 沪深300 度 10% 研 ➢ 互联网金融平台:业务逐渐多元,流量加速变现 究 -3% 1)行业发展脉络:业务结构由单一逐渐多元化,产品创新与牌照生意为主 -17% 要路径。2)主要金融信息服务商:东方财富在营收体量上遥遥领先,同花 顺 ROE较优。从体量上来看,2023年,东方财富分别实现营收及归母净利 -30% 润 110.8、81.9亿元,在营收体量上领先同业,同花顺次之,实现营收及 2023/5 2023/9 2023/12 2024/4 归母净利润35.6、14.0亿元;从盈利情况来看,2023年,东方财富归母净 作者 利率最高,为73.9%;同花顺ROE最高为19.2%,东方财富为11.4%。 分析师:刘雨辰 ➢ 流量变现的路径选择一:金融牌照业务 执业证书编号:S0590522100001 邮箱:liuyuch@glsc.com.cn 从盈利模式来看,主要金融信息服务商流量变现方式不同。一是东方财富、 ...
非银金融:互联网金融平台:科技与牌照共驱流量变现
Guolian Securities· 2024-04-29 13:00
证券研究报告 行 2024年04月29日 业 报 投资建议: 强于大市(维持) 告 非银金融 │ 上次建议: 强于大市 行 业 相对大盘走势 互联网金融平台:科技与牌照共驱流量变现 深 非银金融 沪深300 度 10% 研 ➢ 互联网金融平台:业务逐渐多元,流量加速变现 究 -3% 1)行业发展脉络:业务结构由单一逐渐多元化,产品创新与牌照生意为主 -17% 要路径。2)主要金融信息服务商:东方财富在营收体量上遥遥领先,同花 顺 ROE较优。从体量上来看,2023年,东方财富分别实现营收及归母净利 -30% 润 110.8、81.9亿元,在营收体量上领先同业,同花顺次之,实现营收及 2023/5 2023/9 2023/12 2024/4 归母净利润35.6、14.0亿元;从盈利情况来看,2023年,东方财富归母净 作者 利率最高,为73.9%;同花顺ROE最高为19.2%,东方财富为11.4%。 分析师:刘雨辰 ➢ 流量变现的路径选择一:金融牌照业务 执业证书编号:S0590522100001 邮箱:liuyuch@glsc.com.cn 从盈利模式来看,主要金融信息服务商流量变现方式不同。一是东方财富、 ...
风电设备:海风催化积蓄,景气度有望提升
Guolian Securities· 2024-04-29 11:30
证券研究报告 行 2024年04月29日 业 报 投资建议: 强于大市(首次) 告 风电设备 上次建议: │ 行 业 相对大盘走势 海风催化积蓄,景气度有望提升 点 风电设备 沪深300 评 10% 研 行业事件:一季报逐步披露完毕,后续催化积蓄 究 -10% 一季度普遍为海风施工淡季,海风企业一季度业绩整体承压,随着24Q1季 报逐步披露,我们认为短期风险或释放,未来核心催化主要系:1)建设端 -30% 回暖;2)招投标回暖;3)广东海风进展边际向好。我们认为此前风电板块 处于阶段性的相对底部,随着交付和招投标起量,行业景气度处于反转上 -50% 2023/5 2023/9 2023/12 2024/4 升阶段。 作者 建设端:逐步进入加速建设期,Q2排产交付有望回暖。 分析师:贺朝晖 一季度普遍为行业施工淡季,展望24Q2,随着各地海风逐步进入施工期, 执业证书编号:S0590521100002 江苏/广东地区重点海风项目或逐步开工,我们预计 Q2 海风产业链排产交 邮箱:hezh@glsc.com.cn 付环比有望改善,装机需求有望逐步兑现,全年维度,我们预计24年国内 海风新增装机有望达10G ...
年报及一季报点评:收入利润符合预期,盈利改善持续兑现
Guolian Securities· 2024-04-29 10:38
证券研究报告 公 2024年04月29日 司 报 告 古井贡酒(000596) │ 行 业: 食品饮料/白酒Ⅱ 公 投资评级: 买入(维持) 司 季 年报及一季报点评:收入利润符合预期,盈利改善持续兑现 当前价格: 264.50元 目标价格: 305.10元 报 点 事件: 评 基本数据 公司发布2023年年报与2024年一季报,2023年公司实现营业收入202.54 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 528.60/528.60 亿元,同比增长21.18%,归母净利润45.89亿元,同比增长46.01%。23Q4 实现营业收入43.01亿元,同比增长8.92%,归母净利润7.77亿元,同比 流通A股市值(百万元) 108,074.70 增长49.20%。24Q1公司实现收入82.86亿元,同比增长25.85%,归母净利 每股净资产(元) 44.60 润20.66亿元,同比增长31.61%。 资产负债率(%) 39.46 ➢ 收入利润符合预期,2023年省内消费升级趋势延续,古16增长领先 一年内最高/最低(元) 301.10/195.39 公司收入利润符合预期。24Q1 合同负债 46.17亿元,同比下降 2.70 ...