证券研究报告 公 2024年04月29日 司 报 告 老白干酒(600559) │ 行 业： 食品饮料/白酒Ⅱ 公 投资评级： 买入 司 季 年报及一季报点评：基地市场收入提速，提质增效盈利改善 当前价格： 19.87元 目标价格： 24.50元 报 点 事件： 评 基本数据 公司发布2023年报及2024年一季报，2023年公司实现营业收入52.57亿 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 914.75/897.29 元，同比增长12.98%；实现归母净利润6.66亿元，同比下降5.89%。2024Q1 公司实现营业收入11.30亿元，同比增长12.67%；实现归母净利润1.36亿 流通A股市值(百万元) 17,829.10 元，同比增长33.04%，收入利润超预期。 每股净资产(元) 5.42 ➢ 现金回款快于收入，2024Q1老白干系列增长超预期 资产负债率(%) 51.57 2024Q1销售收现19.87亿元，同比增长17.61%。2024Q1合同负债23.64亿 一年内最高/最低(元) 32.62/15.19 元，同比增长 7.01%，环比增加 8.43 亿元。2024Q1（收入+Δ合同负债） 19.73亿元 ...

证券研究报告 公 2024年04月29日 司 报 告 泸州老窖(000568) │ 行 业： 食品饮料/白酒Ⅱ 公 投资评级： 买入（维持） 司 季 年报及一季报点评：24Q1 收入利润超预期，盈利能力持续提升 当前价格： 186.42元 目标价格： 216.20元 报 点 事件： 评 基本数据 公司发布 2023 年年报与 2024 年一季报，2023 年公司实现收入 302.33 亿 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 1,471.99/1,467.17 元，同比增长 20.34%，实现归母净利润 132.46 亿元，同比增长 27.79%。 流通A股市值(百万元) 273,527.57 24Q1公司实现收入91.88亿元，同比增长20.74%，实现归母净利润45.74 每股净资产(元) 31.41 亿元，同比增长23.20%，24Q1收入利润超预期。 资产负债率(%) 32.43 ➢ 现金回款良好，蓄水池深厚 23Q4 公司实现收入 82.91 亿元，同比增长 9.10%，实现归母净利润 26.80 一年内最高/最低(元) 254.80/140.01 亿元，同比增长24.78%。23Q4+24Q1实现收入174 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 23.52 yuan, based on a projected PE of 50 times for 2024 [6][19]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.213 billion yuan in 2023, a decrease of 12.90% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 103 million yuan, down 13.61% year-on-year [1][19]. - The company is gradually transforming its business model, focusing on improving profitability, particularly in the B-end business, while reducing reliance on the C-end business [2][19]. - The automotive sector is showing early signs of growth, contributing 48 million yuan in revenue in March 2024, indicating potential for improved profitability [1][3][19]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 445 million yuan, a decline of 3.04% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders increased significantly by 226.21% to 45 million yuan [1][25]. - The gross profit margin for 2023 improved by 3.6 percentage points, primarily due to the increased proportion of cinema screening services [4][19]. - The company expects revenues for 2024 to reach 2.707 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 22.31%, and net profits projected to be 218 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 110.91% [5][19]. Business Segment Analysis - The cinema screening service segment saw a year-on-year increase of 37% in 2023, while the professional display segment remained stable with a slight decline of 1% [1][19]. - The company is optimizing its C-end marketing expenses and adjusting its R&D personnel structure to better align with the needs of the automotive business [19]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates revenue growth of 22%, 18%, and 20% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profit growth rates of 111%, 82%, and 59% [19]. - The report highlights the unique advantages of laser display technology and the potential for steady performance in the B-end business, suggesting a positive outlook for the company's future performance [19].

相关报告 投 资 策 略│ 定 期 策 略 1、 北交所策略专题之三：全要素复盘北证打新：24年收益可期 3、 北证策略点评一："920"号段启用将提升交易效率 5、 债券基金2024年一季报点评：短债基金受青睐，普遍降杠杆、拉久期 ➢ 行业深度 9、 农林牧渔行业专题： 10、食品饮料行业专题： 11、前瞻研究专题：ESG披露：中国的政策与实践 2、 星宇股份(601799)深度： 3、 黑猫股份(002068)深度： 2 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 总量研究 题之三》 年报深度拆解系列三：优质客户放量+产品结构升级，业绩弹性可期 邮箱：fuqt@glsc.com.cn 投资策略│策略定期 1、《全要素复盘北证打新：24 年收益可期——北交所策略专 发布日期：2024 年 4 月 20 日 网上发行仍是重头戏，中签率与双创逐渐趋同。自北交所开市（2021/11/15）以 来至 2024/4/1,仅 5 家公司选择网下询价，占开市后新股发行比重 3%。相比沪深，目 前网上定价发行仍是北交所新股发行的主要方式。自阿为特首日涨幅达 1008%及"深 改十九条"发布后，北交所打新再次迎来热潮，中签率自 23Q2 ...

证券研究报告 公 2024年04月29日 司 报 告 石头科技(688169) │ 行 业： 家用电器/小家电 公 投资评级： 买入（维持） 司 2024 年一季报点评： 当前价格： 382.30元 季 报 超预期开局 目标价格： 472.29元 点 事件： 评 基本数据 石头科技披露其2024年一季报：公司实现营收18.41亿，同比+58.69%， 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 131.48/131.48 归母净利润3.99亿，同比+95.23%，扣非净利润3.42亿，同比+110.03%。 流通A股市值(百万元) 50,263.84 ➢ 外销表现超预期，带动收入实现高增 每股净资产(元) 89.64 参考奥维数据，Q1石头内销或实现+20%左右增长，预计价格小幅下滑，销 资产负债率(%) 18.62 量持续高增，其中扫地机较快，洗地机、洗衣机均延续增长；反推外销或 实现高双位数超预期增长，预计欧美领跑，亚太明显提速，一方面上新节 一年内最高/最低(元) 391.63/238.00 奏差异导致的低基数有一定贡献，另一方面在属国化运营持续深化基础上， 股价相对走势 线上自营快速放量，带动营收增长。考虑到内销P1 ...

证券研究报告 公 2024年04月29日 司 报 告 科沃斯(603486) │ 行 业： 家用电器/小家电 公 投资评级： 买入（维持） 司 2023A&2024Q1 业绩点评： 当前价格： 41.53元 年 报 “清”舟已过万重山 目标价格： 47.41元 点 事件： 评 基本数据 科沃斯披露2023年年报及2024年一季报：公司23年实现营收155.0亿， 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 576.46/569.20 同比+1.2%，业绩6.1亿，同比-64.0%，扣非业绩4.8亿，同比-70.3%；23Q4 实现营收 49.7亿，同比-4.4%，业绩0.1亿，同比-98.5%，扣非业绩-0.4 流通A股市值(百万元) 23,638.93 亿，同比-5.6亿。23年度分红1.70亿，分红率27.7%。24Q1实现营收34.7 每股净资产(元) 11.66 亿，同比+7.4%，业绩3.0亿，同比-8.7%，扣非业绩2.9亿，同比+0.3%。 资产负债率(%) 49.87 ➢ 基本盘仍较为稳固，出海贡献营收增量 一年内最高/最低(元) 85.00/27.76 23 年科沃斯/添可品牌营收分别同比-1.5%/+5. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but it suggests continuous attention due to the potential benefits from AI industry demands for high-speed optical modules [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company maintains a leading position in the global optical device market with a market share of 6.30%, ranking fourth globally [2]. - The company has a comprehensive product coverage and vertical integration capabilities, which are expected to benefit from the AI industry's demand for 400G and 800G optical modules [2]. - The company has a high R&D investment rate of 11.52% in Q1 2024, indicating a commitment to innovation across multiple fields [3]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are optimistic, with expected revenues of 74.40 billion, 87.67 billion, and 100.84 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 22.75%, 17.84%, and 15.03% respectively [4]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 60.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.31%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.80% [1]. - For Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 12.91 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.79%, but a net profit of 0.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.21% [1]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected to be 0.89, 1.03, and 1.17 yuan respectively, with a three-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.41% [4]. Market Position and Product Development - The company ranks fourth in the telecom transmission network, fifth in data centers, and third in access networks within the optical device market [2]. - The product matrix includes optical modules for various speeds, which are expected to benefit from the growing demand in AI and data center interconnects [2]. - The company is actively investing in R&D for advanced technologies such as 400G backbone networks and AI cluster connections [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][11]. Core Views - The company has shown a continuous improvement trend since Q3 2023, with expectations for brand momentum to increase and sales expense ratios to optimize [2][14]. - The main brand, Marubi, is expected to enhance its performance, while the PL brand, Lianhuo, has demonstrated significant growth, with a revenue increase of 125.14% [3][14]. - The company is undergoing a digital transformation that has begun to yield results, particularly in the e-commerce sector, with online channel revenue growth of 50.40% [3][15]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company reported revenue of 2.226 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 259 million yuan, up 48.9% [1][4]. - For Q1 2024, revenue reached 661 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 38.7%, with a net profit of 111 million yuan, up 40.6% [1][4]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 70.7% in 2023, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin reached 11.66%, up 1.6 percentage points [3][15]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 2.913 billion yuan, 3.512 billion yuan, and 4.180 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 30.9%, 20.6%, and 19.0% [4][15]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 335 million yuan in 2024, 403 million yuan in 2025, and 482 million yuan in 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 29.3%, 20.3%, and 19.4% [4][15]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 0.84 yuan, 1.01 yuan, and 1.20 yuan, respectively [4][15]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 43.7 in 2023 to 33.8 in 2024, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [4][15].

Investment Rating and Core Views - The report gives the company a "Buy" rating with a target price of 25 yuan [6][8] - The company is a global leader in the fine chemical industry, with a strong competitive advantage in vitamin and methionine businesses [2] - The methionine business is expected to drive significant growth, potentially doubling the company's scale [4] Vitamin Business - The vitamin industry is in a downturn, but the company's cost advantage and profitability resilience are evident [3] - The global CR4 for VA and VE in 2024 is 81% and 80%, respectively, indicating a highly concentrated market [3] - The company's self-supply of key intermediates like citral and linalool gives it a cost advantage [3] Methionine Business - Methionine is a high-growth, low-cost business with a global CR4 of 73% in 2024, suggesting a shift towards oligopoly pricing [4] - The company has a solid methionine production capacity of 300,000 tons, with an additional 180,000 tons of liquid methionine under construction [2][4] - The company's methionine business is highly competitive, with lower investment costs per ton compared to industry peers [65][66] Fragrance and New Materials Business - The fragrance and new materials businesses are well-integrated with the company's core nutrition business, leveraging shared intermediates to reduce costs [5] - The company's fragrance business benefits from the release of new capacities, such as the 5,000-ton menthol project, which started production in 2023 [30] - The new materials business, particularly PPS (polyphenylene sulfide), has a capacity of 22,000 tons, with a 7,000-ton Phase III project completed in 2023 [72] Financial Projections - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 19 billion yuan in 2024 to 25.4 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 15% [6] - Net profit is projected to increase from 4.5 billion yuan in 2024 to 7.2 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 23% [6] - The EPS is forecasted to rise from 1.46 yuan in 2024 to 2.32 yuan in 2026 [6] Industry Insights - The global methionine market is expected to grow steadily, with demand reaching 160 million tons in 2023, up 3.2% year-on-year [55] - The vitamin industry is undergoing consolidation, with DSM planning to divest its animal nutrition and health business by 2025, potentially improving the competitive landscape [52] - The PPS market is dominated by Japanese companies, but the company is making strides with its high-end PPS products, which have applications in electronics, automotive, and precision machinery [72]

台华新材(603055) 业绩超预期，差异化战略推动公司持续成长 事件： 公司发布 24 年一季报，24Q1 公司实现营业收入 14.7 亿元，同比增长 52%， 环比下降 7%；实现归母净利润 1.50 亿元，同比增长 101%，环比增长 23%，； 实现扣非后归母净利润 1.35 亿元，同比增长 378%，环比增长 16%。 锦纶行业景气持续修复，公司业绩超预期 公司 24 年一季度业绩大幅增长，主要是 22 年底以来，锦纶行业景气度持 续修复，根据隆众咨讯和百川盈孚数据，锦纶 POY、DTY、FDY 市场均价已 经从 23Q1 的 1.57、1.81、1.65 万元/吨提升至 24Q1 的 1.70、1.93、1.81 万元/吨，同比分别增长了 8.3%、6.6%、9.7%。我国锦纶纤维的开工率也从 23Q1 的 64%逐季提升至 24Q1 的 77%。公司 24Q1 毛利率同比增长了 2.82pct 至 23.4%，净利率也同比增长了 2.50pct 至 10.17%。 展望后市，锦纶行业景气度仍处于上升周期，公司锦纶长丝及后端纺织、 染整、坯布、面料等环节盈利能力有望进一步抬升，业绩有望进一步增长。 ...