Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the building materials sector, consistent with the previous rating [8]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a faster pace of policy support, with new tax policies actively boosting market sentiment, particularly benefiting the cement sector which has seen a significant drop in market value [8]. - Cement prices have continued to rise, with a 0.4% increase week-on-week, primarily driven by regions like Fujian and Shaanxi, where prices increased by 20-30 CNY/ton [9][45]. - The report anticipates a continued upward trend in cement prices, with some regions initiating new price hikes of 30-50 CNY/ton [9][45]. - The glass and fiberglass sectors are experiencing mixed trends, with glass prices stabilizing after previous increases, while fiberglass prices are under pressure [33][34]. Summary by Sections 1. Building Materials Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the proactive nature of recent policies, transitioning from a focus on stabilization to active market stimulation, particularly in the consumer building materials sector [15]. - Key recommendations include companies with strong market positions and innovative business models, such as Oriental Yuhong and Beixin Building Materials [15]. 2. Cement Industry - National cement market prices have risen by 0.4% week-on-week, with specific regions like Fujian and Shaanxi seeing significant price increases [9][45]. - The report notes a decrease in cement shipment rates by approximately 1.5 percentage points due to declining demand in northern regions as temperatures drop [9][45]. - The report predicts a substantial improvement in profit levels for the cement sector in Q4 compared to the previous quarter and year [15]. 3. Glass Industry - The average price of domestic float glass is reported at 1453.79 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 64.46 CNY/ton [33][100]. - The report indicates that while float glass prices are stabilizing, there are still fluctuations based on market conditions and regional supply [33][100]. - Recommendations for investment include leading companies like Fuyao Glass and Xinyi Glass, which are expected to benefit from strong dividend yields and market positions [33][100]. 4. Fiberglass Industry - Fiberglass prices are experiencing a downward trend, with electronic yarn prices remaining stable [34][124]. - The report highlights a general lack of demand in the fiberglass market, with many companies adopting flexible pricing strategies to manage inventory [34][124]. - Key recommendations include companies like China Jushi and Zhongcai Technology, which are expected to benefit from structural demand changes in the market [34][124].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the electric two-wheeler industry, maintaining the previous rating of "Accumulate" [6]. Core Viewpoints - The new 3C certification standards for electric two-wheelers will be fully implemented starting November 1, 2024, leading to accelerated market differentiation, with leading brands expected to benefit significantly [7][18]. - The supply-side reform is accelerating as smaller brands struggle with certification, resulting in shortages at retail outlets and a shift towards leading brands like Aima Technology and Yadea Holdings, which have completed over 100 model certifications [11][18]. - The new national standards are anticipated to be officially released by the end of 2024, which will likely increase average selling prices (ASP) and market share concentration due to higher production costs and stricter quality control requirements [11][15]. - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to support lead-acid products, with subsidies ranging from 10% to 20% of the selling price, generally between 400 to 600 yuan, and additional incentives for recycling old lithium battery products [15][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Update - The electric two-wheeler industry is undergoing significant changes with the implementation of new 3C certification standards, which are expected to enhance the supply structure and benefit leading manufacturers [11][12]. - The report highlights that leading brands have sufficient SKU reserves to meet the new certification requirements, while smaller brands face challenges [11][12]. 2. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies such as Aima Technology and Yadea Holdings, as they are likely to see improved sales performance due to the new certification standards and market dynamics [18]. - The expected increase in ASP due to new national standards and the shift towards OBM (Original Brand Manufacturer) models will further enhance the competitive landscape [15][18]. 3. Policy Implications - The "old-for-new" policy is gradually being rolled out across various regions, with significant subsidies aimed at encouraging consumers to upgrade to new electric two-wheelers [15][17]. - The report provides a detailed overview of subsidy programs in different regions, indicating a strong governmental push to support the transition to new standards [17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group-SW (9618) and raises the target price to 176 HKD from 166 HKD based on the SOTP valuation method [3][19] Core Views - JD Group's revenue growth has rebounded under the trade-in policy, with profits exceeding expectations [2][3] - JD Retail's revenue increased by 6.1% YoY in FY24Q3, driven by growth in active users and shopping frequency, particularly benefiting from the trade-in policy [3] - JD Logistics achieved a significant increase in operating profit margin to 4.7%, with operating profit reaching 2.09 billion RMB, far exceeding market expectations [3] - The company's gross margin improved to 17.3%, up 0.7 percentage points YoY, attributed to higher-margin general merchandise and reduced logistics costs [3] Financial Performance - JD Group's FY24Q3 revenue grew 5.1% YoY to 260.4 billion RMB, with merchandise and service revenues increasing by 5% and 6% respectively [3] - Non-GAAP net profit surged 29.3% YoY to 13.2 billion RMB, surpassing the expected 11.4 billion RMB [3] - JD Logistics' revenue rose 6.6% YoY to 44.4 billion RMB, with cost control measures leading to only a 2.2% YoY increase in costs [3] Business Segment Analysis - JD Retail's revenue reached 225 billion RMB in FY24Q3, with electronics and home appliance sales growing 3% YoY and daily necessities sales increasing 8% YoY [3] - JD Logistics' operating profit margin improved significantly, driven by effective cost management and low single-digit growth in labor costs [3] Valuation and Outlook - JD Group's valuation is supported by its strong supply chain capabilities, which provide efficiency advantages in inventory turnover, gross margin, and fulfillment costs [19] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in consumer spending, with platform ecosystem improvements and content ecosystem development driving future growth [21] - Revenue forecasts for FY2024E, FY2025E, and FY2026E are adjusted to 1,128.2 billion RMB, 1,183.2 billion RMB, and 1,243.0 billion RMB respectively, with adjusted net profits projected at 44.8 billion RMB, 48.0 billion RMB, and 51.7 billion RMB [3][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an **Overweight** rating for Takara Shuzo, reflecting its strong market position and growth potential in both domestic and international markets [6] Core Views - Takara Shuzo has successfully navigated Japan's evolving alcohol consumption trends by focusing on product innovation, market segmentation, and international expansion [7] - The company has built a diversified product portfolio across sake, shochu, and RTD (ready-to-drink) beverages, securing leading market shares in key categories [7] - International expansion, particularly in the US and China, has become a significant growth driver, contributing 45% of FY2024 revenue [7][14] Industry Overview Japanese Alcohol Consumption Trends - Japanese alcohol consumption peaked in the mid-1990s at 96 6 billion liters and has since entered a period of decline due to economic stagnation and demographic challenges [18] - The industry has undergone three distinct phases: volume-price growth (1970-1993), category differentiation (1993-1999), and the current era of market contraction (1999-present) [22] - Beer consumption peaked in 1994 at 70 6 billion liters, while shochu and RTD beverages have shown resilience, with RTD beverages surpassing beer as the largest category by 2022 [24][33] Key Drivers of Category Shifts - Tax policies and consumer preferences have significantly influenced category dynamics, with lower-tax products like RTD beverages gaining market share [36] - Health consciousness and changing consumer demographics have driven demand for lower-alcohol and flavored beverages [38] - The industry has seen increasing concentration, with the top 3 players controlling 80% of the beer market and 50% of the RTD market [33] Company Analysis Business Segments - Takara Shuzo operates through three main segments: domestic alcohol and food (35% of FY2024 revenue), international operations (45%), and biotechnology (12%) [41] - The domestic alcohol business generated ¥123 8 billion in FY2024, with RTD beverages becoming the largest category at 45% of alcohol sales [47] Shochu Business - Takara Shuzo dominates the shochu market with a 14% share, leveraging a diverse product portfolio of over 100 SKUs [53] - The company has successfully navigated three major shochu consumption waves: the white revolution (1970s), RTD innovation (1980s), and premiumization (2000s) [58][62] - Key products include the flagship "Takara Shochu" and premium offerings like "Gokujo" [55] Sake Business - Despite declining domestic sake consumption, Takara Shuzo has maintained market leadership through product innovation and international expansion [78] - The "Matsuzaka" brand has been particularly successful, becoming the top gift sake product in Japan [87] - International sales have grown significantly, with the US and China as key markets [82] International Expansion - Takara Shuzo's international business has grown rapidly, with revenue increasing from 37% in FY2023 to 45% in FY2024 [96] - The company has pursued a dual strategy of alcohol exports and local food distribution, acquiring several overseas distributors since 2010 [93] - Key markets include the US, China, and Europe, with the US operations contributing significantly to international revenue [93] Management Strategy - The company has maintained strong brand equity through cultural marketing and targeted advertising campaigns [102] - Takara Shuzo has invested consistently in marketing, with advertising expenses remaining stable at around 1 5% of revenue [108] - Sustainability initiatives and health-conscious product development have enhanced the company's ESG profile [109]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 46.58 CNY, up from the previous forecast of 36.29 CNY [5][7]. Core Views - The company is a leader in the anode coating materials industry, and the exploration of silicon-based anode technology by major clients like Huawei is expected to accelerate the adoption of silicon materials, thereby increasing demand for the company's coating materials [2][5]. - The company is actively developing silicon-based anode coating technology to address issues such as volume expansion, which enhances the cycling stability of anodes [7]. - The company has maintained its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 at 0.01 CNY, 0.72 CNY, and 1.16 CNY respectively, despite current losses [7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is the only publicly listed entity in the anode coating materials sector and is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for silicon-based anodes [7]. Financial Performance - The company reported a gross margin of 8.23% in Q3 2024, showing a quarter-on-quarter improvement of 0.79 percentage points [7]. - Revenue for 2022 was 904 million CNY, with a projected increase to 1,080 million CNY in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 13.8% [11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to recover significantly from a loss of 98.2% in 2024 to a profit of 118 million CNY by 2026 [11]. Market Position - The company is focusing on enhancing its production processes and optimizing raw material usage to improve product quality and reduce costs [7]. - The demand for anode coating materials is expected to grow significantly due to the increasing penetration of high-performance batteries in various applications [7]. Research and Development - The company has disclosed ongoing projects related to the development of silicon-carbon anode particles and binding agents, aiming to meet future demand for silicon-based anodes [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [5][6]. Core Viewpoints - The steel sector is currently at a bottoming phase, with expectations for demand improvement and supply restructuring, leading to enhanced competitive advantages for industry leaders [3]. - Inventory levels are on a downward trend, with total inventory at 12,037.9 thousand tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons week-on-week, maintaining historical low levels [4]. - The profitability of steel companies has decreased, with the simulated gross profit for rebar at 249.2 CNY/ton, down 49.6 CNY/ton week-on-week [4][36]. - Demand expectations are improving, with anticipated mergers and acquisitions accelerating within the industry due to prolonged losses and declining profitability since 2022 [4]. - The report highlights a series of macro policies aimed at boosting market expectations, particularly in the real estate sector, which is expected to stabilize and reduce its negative impact on steel demand [4]. Summary by Sections Steel Prices and Inventory - Rebar prices decreased by 110 CNY/ton to 3,420 CNY/ton, a drop of 3.12% [9]. - Total apparent consumption of steel was 8,765.8 thousand tons, a decrease of 0.12% week-on-week [19]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills was 82.08%, down 0.21 percentage points [25]. Raw Materials - Iron ore spot prices fell by 41 CNY/ton to 744.00 CNY/ton, a decline of 5.22% [42]. - Iron ore port inventory increased to 15,280.51 thousand tons, a rise of 0.07% [47]. Profitability and Production - The profitability of steel companies decreased, with the overall profitability rate at 57.58%, down 2.16 percentage points [25]. - Total steel production was 8,615.8 thousand tons, a slight increase of 0.09% week-on-week [30]. Recommendations - Key recommendations include companies with leading technology and product structures such as Baosteel and Hualing Steel, as well as low-cost firms like Fangda Special Steel and New Steel [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from policy catalysts in the low-altitude economy sector, leveraging its rich experience and technological accumulation to drive future revenue and profit growth [3]. - Due to the cyclical downturn in the infrastructure and engineering design sectors, the earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised downwards to 0.93, 1.01, and 1.09 yuan, respectively, reflecting a growth rate of -9%, 9%, and 8% [3]. - The target price has been adjusted to 12.20 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 13.1 times for 2024 [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 5,839 million yuan, with a forecasted decline to 5,353 million yuan in 2023, followed by a slight recovery to 5,419 million yuan in 2024 [2]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company was 684 million yuan in 2022, with a slight increase to 698 million yuan in 2023, but expected to decrease to 634 million yuan in 2024 [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2022 was 1.00 yuan, projected to be 1.02 yuan in 2023, and then decrease to 0.93 yuan in 2024 [2]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline from 15.6% in 2022 to 11.4% in 2024 [2]. - The current PE ratio is 8.62, with projections of 9.29 for 2024 and decreasing to 7.93 by 2026 [2]. Strategic Developments - The company has formed a strategic partnership with WoFei ChangKong to develop comprehensive solutions for low-altitude flight commercialization and a new integrated transportation network [3]. - The company successfully won the bid for the "Guan-Yue Canal Project Pre-Feasibility Study," which spans approximately 316 km [3]. - The low-altitude economy is recognized as a new productive force, with nearly 30 provinces incorporating its development into local government work reports or related policies [3].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, Yingshi Network (688475), and sets a target price of 46.52 CNY [2][3]. Core Insights - Yingshi Network is positioned as a leader in the smart home industry, leveraging a dual business model of hardware products and cloud services. The short-term outlook is supported by sustainable expansion of smart home hardware categories, while the long-term perspective focuses on continuous cash flow from cloud services [3][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Story - Yingshi Network, spun off from Hikvision, focuses on consumer-end security hardware, primarily smart home cameras, and is expanding into smart locks and other hardware categories. The company aims to evolve into a platform-based business with a strong foundation in visual technology [19]. 2. Business Overview - The company employs a "2+5+N" strategy, where "2" refers to AI technology and Yingshi Cloud, "5" represents five major self-developed hardware categories, and "N" symbolizes the interconnected ecosystem of smart devices [8]. 3. Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to grow from 55.07 billion CNY to 72.16 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 13.79%, 14.43%, and 14.51% respectively. Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 5.64 billion CNY to 9.03 billion CNY during the same period [29][30]. 4. Short-term and Long-term Outlook - In the short term, the company anticipates a network effect from the expansion of new hardware categories, while the long-term focus is on establishing a sustainable cash flow through cloud services, which currently account for 20% of total revenue [8][27]. 5. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Yingshi Network benefits from a well-established offline channel and after-sales service system, which enhances its ability to respond to fragmented market demands. The company is also making strides in overseas markets, particularly in Europe and Southeast Asia [8][19]. 6. Financial Projections - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 0.72 CNY, 0.89 CNY, and 1.15 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 0.1%, 24.9%, and 28.2% [29][30].

股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 次新板块回调，市场交易活跃度分化 本周新股发行信息 ——次新市场周报（ 年 月第 周） | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------------------|--------------------|-------------------------------| | | [table_Authors] 王政之 ( 分析师 ) | 施怡昀 ( 分析师 ) | 2024 11 2 \n王思琪 ( 分析师 ) | | | 021-38674944 | 021-38032690 | 021-38038671 | | | wangzhengzhi@gtjas.com | shiyiyun@gtjas.com | wangsiqi026737@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880517060002 | S0880522060002 | S0880524080007 | 本报告导读： 11 月第 2 周，次新板块随大盘回调，新股指数和近端次新股指数当周分别下跌 4.38% 和 1.89 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry, consistent with the previous rating [6]. Core Viewpoints - Following the full implementation of policies in December, market investment strategies are expected to gradually focus on certainty, potentially leading to renewed investment opportunities in stable dividend leaders within the coal sector [6]. - The report highlights that after nearly two months of selling pressure on coal dividend leaders since the end of September, the current valuation and dividend yield of these leaders are becoming increasingly attractive [6]. - The report recommends key players such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and China Coal Energy, as well as integrated coal and electricity companies like Xinji Energy, which will benefit from Shaanxi's energy policies [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal Data Tracking: Price Decline and Inventory Increase - As of November 15, 2024, the price of Q5500 thermal coal at Huanghua Port is 847 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY/ton (-1.2%) from the previous week [14]. - The overall daily consumption of coal has increased as northern regions enter the heating season, with expectations of a peak demand period [6][14]. - Inventory levels at Qinhuangdao Port have risen to 6.93 million tons, an increase of 340,000 tons (5.2%) [37]. 2. Coking Coal Data Tracking: Domestic and Overseas Price Declines - The price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port remains stable at 1,640 CNY/ton as of November 15, 2024 [51]. - Domestic coking coal prices have generally decreased, with the price of Inner Mongolia's main coking coal dropping by 70 CNY/ton (-4.5%) [57]. - The Australian coking coal price has decreased to 220 USD/ton, down 1 USD/ton (-0.2%) [62]. 3. Market Overview - The report notes that the coal sector has outperformed the broader market recently, indicating a positive trend for coal stocks [8]. - The anticipated policy adjustments and economic recovery are expected to be gradual, with significant reliance on the effectiveness of policy implementation [6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a neutral stance on policies while gradually considering investment certainties [6].