Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for the online travel industry, specifically for Ctrip and Tongcheng Travel, with expected revenue growth rates of 19% and 20% for 2024 respectively [4] Core Insights - Domestic tourism revenue during the Spring Festival reached 677 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%, with total tourist numbers at 500 million, reflecting a 5.9% growth [2][3] - The report forecasts a 10% year-on-year growth in total domestic tourism revenue for 2025, estimating it to reach 6.6 trillion yuan [2][4] - Online travel platforms are expected to benefit from increased online penetration, various value-added services, and the continued recovery of outbound tourism [4] Summary by Sections Domestic Tourism Performance - Spring Festival tourism revenue and visitor numbers met expectations, with revenue increasing by 7% and visitor numbers by 5.9% compared to the previous year [2] - Average spending per tourist was 1,351 yuan, up 1.2% year-on-year, indicating a stable recovery in consumer spending [2] Travel Consumption Trends - Future tourism spending will not only focus on hotel ADR and airfare but also on diverse travel services like car rentals and unique attraction tickets [2] - The average airfare for economy class dropped by 17% year-on-year, yet overall tourism spending still saw growth, highlighting the demand for varied travel experiences [2] Observations on Travel Patterns - The report noted an increase in multi-segment trips during the Spring Festival, with over 20% of return orders occurring in the five days post-holiday [3] - High-end hotels in county areas are gaining popularity, surpassing chain hotels for the first time [3] - Outbound travel orders have doubled, particularly from lower-tier markets, indicating significant potential for growth in this segment [3] OTA Platform Performance - Ctrip is projected to achieve revenue growth of 19% in 2024 and 16% in 2025, with a net profit margin of 34.2% and 35.5% respectively [4] - Tongcheng Travel is expected to see a 20% increase in core OTA business revenue in 2024, with an overall adjusted net profit margin of 16.0% in 2024 [4] - The report emphasizes that the online travel sector's revenue potential is driven by increased online penetration, recovery in hotel and airfare prices, and the growth of outbound tourism [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 19.0, indicating a potential upside of 33% from the current price of HKD 14.3 [6][4]. Core Insights - The company achieved a record monthly sales figure of 267,000 vehicles in January, representing a year-on-year growth of 25% and a month-on-month increase of 27% [1][2]. - The sales performance of the company's brands shows a positive trend, with the Geely brand selling 225,000 vehicles (up 30%), while Zeekr and Lynk & Co brands experienced a decline and modest growth, respectively [2][3]. - The company has set a sales target of 2.71 million vehicles for 2025, with significant contributions expected from the Geely brand, which is positioned in the mid-to-low-end market [3]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In January, the total sales reached 267,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 25% and a month-on-month increase of 27% [1][2]. - The Geely brand's sales were 225,000 units, showing a 30% increase year-on-year, while Zeekr's sales were 12,000 units, down 5% [2]. Brand Strategy - The company has completed internal resource integration, leading to clearer brand positioning, which is expected to support long-term growth [3]. - The Geely brand targets cost-conscious consumers and is entering a technology explosion phase with new architectures and technologies [3]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenue growth from HKD 179.2 billion in FY2023 to HKD 288.7 billion in FY2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 34% [10]. - Net profit is projected to increase significantly from HKD 5.3 billion in FY2023 to HKD 13.8 billion in FY2025, with a notable growth rate of 197% in FY2024 [10].

Investment Rating - The report recommends investing in US consumer ETFs, specifically the Consumer Staples ETF (XLP) and Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) [4] Core Insights - December retail and food service sales in the US totaled $729.2 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.9% and a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, indicating a healthy consumer environment [1][8] - Online retail sales reached $127 billion in December, growing by 6.0% year-on-year, while grocery stores also performed well with sales of $15.5 billion, up 3.7% year-on-year [2][9] - Consumer confidence is on the rise, with the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index at 73.2 in January 2025, reflecting improved consumer sentiment [20][21] Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - December retail and food service sales were $729.2 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 3.9% and a month-on-month increase of 0.5% [1][8] - Online retail sales were $127 billion, up 6.0% year-on-year, while grocery store sales reached $15.5 billion, growing 3.7% year-on-year [2][9] Consumer Confidence and Economic Indicators - The consumer confidence index for January 2025 was 73.2, slightly down from 74 in December 2024 but significantly higher than mid-2024 levels [20][21] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.9% year-on-year in December, indicating a mild rebound in inflation [20][21] Income and Spending Trends - The adjusted disposable income per capita in November was $65,100, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.61% [4][20] - Personal consumption expenditures increased by 5.45% year-on-year in November, indicating stable spending [20]

Economic Indicators and Historical Context - During Trump's previous term, the average monthly CPI increase was 0.16%, and core CPI was 0.156%, indicating no significant inflation surge[4] - The average unemployment rate during Trump's term was 5.0%, or 3.96% excluding the COVID-19 period, showing a declining trend pre-pandemic[9][10] - Retail sales during Trump's term averaged a 0.39% monthly increase, with core retail sales (excluding volatile items) at 0.5%, reflecting stable consumer spending[14] Corporate and Market Performance - S&P 500 companies saw an average earnings growth of 7.13% during Trump's term, with a cumulative increase of 67.8% and a CAGR of 13.8%[28] - Republican presidencies historically yielded an average S&P 500 return of 6.5% annually, while Democratic presidencies averaged 10%, though excluding George W. Bush, Republican returns were 8.7%, similar to Democrats[32][33] 2025 Investment Opportunities - Treasury yields surged ahead of the election, with the 10-year yield rising from 3.6% in September to 4.5% in November, impacting long-term bond ETFs like TLT, which fell over 11%[39] - Small-cap stocks, particularly the Russell 2000, historically outperform the S&P 500 during economic recoveries, with an average outperformance of 27.3% and absolute returns of 60.2% over 19.4 months[52][53] - Cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, are expected to benefit from favorable regulatory changes under Trump, with Bitcoin prices surpassing $100,000 and gaining recognition as a competitor to gold[57][61] Tariff and Trade Policies - Tariff revenues increased from $3.5 billion in June 2018 to $6 billion by December 2018, with 2024 monthly revenues averaging $6.6 billion, reflecting ongoing trade tensions[62] - Proposed tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China could increase import costs by $330 billion annually, equivalent to 4% of U.S. retail sales, with potential tax revenues of $1.2 trillion over a decade[66] Sector and Market Outlook - Traditional sectors like finance and energy are expected to benefit from deregulation and tax cuts, while small-cap stocks are poised for outperformance in a potential soft landing scenario[49][72] - A shift towards sector rotation is anticipated, with small-cap and traditional sectors gaining momentum, while large-cap tech stocks face valuation pressures[72]