SDICSI 2026 年 1 月 21 日 电力运营商 2025 年度全社会用电量数据发布 事件：国家能源局公布 2025 年全社会用电量数据。2025 年全社会用电量累计增 速 5.0%，年度全社会用电量突破 10 万亿千瓦时。根据国家统计局数据，2025 年规上工业发电量同比增长 2.2%，其中 12 月规上工业发电量同比增长 0.1%。 2025 年全年社会用电量增速 5.0%。目前港股电力运营商板块整体估值低，业绩 增速快于行业增速，多个股票的股息率超过或接近 6%。我们建议投资者关注低 估值、高股息、资产优质的电力运营商如中国电力 2380.HK 及京能清洁能源 579.HK。 报告摘要 2025 年全社会用电量同比增长 5.0%，全球范围内首次突破 10 万亿千瓦时。根 据国家能源局公布的数据，2025 年全社会用电量累计达到 103682 亿千瓦时，同 比增长 5.0%。年度全社会用电量突破 10 万亿千瓦时，全球范围内属首次。全社 会用电量分产业看，第一产业用电量 1494 亿千瓦时，同比增长 9.9%；第二产业 用电量 66366 亿千瓦时，增长 3.7%；第三产业用电量 19942 亿千 ...

海外市场策略 美元人民币汇率两极化 国证国际证券(香港)有限公司•研究部 2026年1月 分析师： 黄焯伟 Steve (中央編號：ASG163) stevewong@sdicsi.com.hk 请参阅本报告尾部免责声明 目录 请参阅本报告尾部免责声明 2 ➢ 回顾2025年汇率走势 ➢ 央行取态 ➢ 美元贬值下的机会 ➢ 中、美、欧、日市场的宏观状况 资本市场：回顾2025年汇率走势 3 主要货币表现（相对走势） 主要股指表现（相对走势） 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10 1.15 1.20 2025-Jan 2025-Apr 2025-Jul 2025-Oct 英鎊 日元 人民幣 歐元 美元指數 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 2025-Jan 2025-Apr 2025-Jul 2025-Oct 标指500 纳指100 歐洲斯托克50 恒指 日經225 沪深300 来源：彭博、国投证券国际整理 来源：彭博、国投证券国际整理 请参阅本报告尾部免责声明 3 ➢ 美元汇率走势呈现显著的"前高后低、由强转弱"特征。受美联储货币政策转向、 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the photovoltaic industry, indicating that the "反内卷" (anti-involution) strategy will lead to high-quality development in the sector, with recommendations for investors to consider opportunities in leading companies like 协鑫科技 (GCL-Poly) and 钧达股份 (Junda) [5][6]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry is entering a critical phase of governance in 2026, focusing on capacity regulation, price monitoring, innovation, standardization, industry self-discipline, and international cooperation [2][3]. - Major companies in the photovoltaic sector are aligning with the "反内卷" consensus, leading to a decrease in production in key segments such as polysilicon and silicon wafers, with polysilicon production down 29.6% year-on-year [3][4]. - Initial effects of the "反内卷" actions are visible, with prices stabilizing and a shift in market sentiment, as evidenced by a 37% increase in the total market capitalization of listed companies in the sector since May [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The 2025 Photovoltaic Industry Annual Conference emphasized the need to address internal competition and promote sustainable development, with participation from government officials and industry experts [1][2]. Production Data - From January to October, polysilicon production was approximately 111.3 thousand tons, a 29.6% decrease year-on-year, while silicon wafer production was 560 GW, down 6.7% [3]. - Battery and module production saw growth, with battery production increasing by 9.8% to 560 GW and module production rising by 13.5% to 514 GW [3]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights a gradual price recovery in the second half of the year, with November prices for photovoltaic modules up 1.3% year-on-year and polysilicon average factory prices increasing by 34.4% [4]. - Despite a 17% decline in revenue for 31 listed companies in the photovoltaic sector during the first three quarters of 2025, the rate of decline is narrowing, indicating a potential recovery [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report encourages investors to take advantage of lower prices and consider investments in leading photovoltaic companies, particularly 协鑫科技 (GCL-Poly) and 钧达股份 (Junda), which have competitive advantages in their respective segments [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of 5.7 out of 10 for the IPO of the company, suggesting a recommendation for subscription based on the potential growth in AI computing demand and the company's strong technological barriers and order reserves [16]. Core Insights - The company focuses on general-purpose graphics processing unit (GPGPU) chips and intelligent computing solutions, which are critical for AI model training and inference, positioning itself as a key player in the AI infrastructure market [1]. - The company has achieved significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of RMB 3.37 billion in 2024 and RMB 589 million in the first half of 2025, supported by a strong order backlog totaling RMB 20.63 billion [2][5]. - The Chinese intelligent computing chip market is expected to reach USD 50.4 billion by 2025, indicating substantial growth potential for the company, which aims to capture approximately 0.2% of the market share [3][9]. Company Overview - The company has developed a complete solution comprising hardware systems and software platforms, including PCIe cards, OAM modules, and servers, which enhance energy efficiency in data centers [2]. - The company is the first in China to adopt 2.5D chip packaging technology for dual AI computing bare chips, showcasing its advanced technological capabilities [1][4]. - The company holds a robust patent portfolio with 613 patents granted and 972 pending, indicating strong technical reserves [4]. Industry Status and Prospects - The market is characterized by a concentration of leading players, with the top two companies holding 94.4% of the market share, providing a unique competitive space for the company [3]. - The domestic competition in the intelligent computing chip sector is expected to grow, with local companies projected to increase their market share from 20% in 2024 to 60% by 2029, benefiting the company as a local core enterprise [9]. Advantages and Opportunities - The company has a strong technical barrier and iterative capability, with a high proportion of R&D personnel (83%) and significant investment in R&D, exceeding 70% of total operating expenses from 2022 to 2024 [4]. - The company has a solid order reserve, with 24 unfulfilled binding orders valued at RMB 822 million and additional sales agreements worth RMB 1.241 billion, indicating strong revenue certainty for the future [5]. Commercialization Progress - The company has begun generating revenue from its intelligent computing solutions in 2023, with a steady increase in customer quality, moving from small trial customers to leading enterprises in the ICT and data center sectors [2][5]. - The company operates under a fabless model, focusing on core design and solution integration, allowing for flexible supply chain responses to customer needs [5].

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a collective rebound, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.75%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 1.62%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 1.87% [2] - Market sentiment improved significantly, with major sectors contributing to the upward movement, leading to a total trading volume of approximately HKD 242.7 billion [2] - Despite the overall market rebound, southbound capital flow (Northbound) continued to weaken, with a net outflow of approximately HKD 5.3 billion, marking the weakest day since early October [2] Group 2: Sector Performance - The power equipment and wind power sectors showed remarkable performance, with leading companies like Dongfang Electric (1072.HK) and Harbin Electric (1133.HK) seeing gains exceeding 10% [3] - The financial sector also performed well, with Chinese brokerage and insurance stocks rising, as regulatory changes allowed insurance companies to reduce capital requirements for holding certain quality equity assets [3] - Precious metals continued to show strength, with spot gold nearing USD 4,300 and silver reaching a historical high, contributing to significant gains for related stocks like China Silver Group (815.HK) and Zijin Mining (2899.HK) [3] Group 3: Company Analysis - Lenovo Group (992.HK) - Lenovo's performance in Q2 2026 exceeded expectations, with the Intelligent Devices Group (IDG) revenue growing by 11.8% year-on-year to USD 15.11 billion, benefiting from increased AI computer shipments and strong sales of high-end products [7] - The Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) revenue surged by 23.7% year-on-year to USD 4.09 billion, driven by AI infrastructure business, although it reported an operating loss of USD 120 million [7] - The Solutions and Services Group (SSG) achieved record performance with an 18.1% revenue increase to USD 2.56 billion, and an operating profit margin of 22.3%, reflecting strong demand for digital workplace solutions and hybrid cloud services [8] Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - Lenovo is shifting its AI strategy to focus on user-centric and enterprise-centric applications, aiming to create "personal intelligent twins" and "enterprise intelligent twins" to enhance user experience and data insights [8] - The company is prepared to address storage supply shortages and price increases by securing long-term agreements with key suppliers and leveraging its cost advantages to manage potential cost pressures [9] - The forecast for adjusted net profit for the fiscal years 2025/26 and 2026/27 is USD 1.62 billion (up 12.5% year-on-year) and USD 1.78 billion (up 9.9% year-on-year), respectively, with a target price of HKD 12.3, indicating a "buy" rating [9]

Group 1: Market Overview - The overall sentiment in the Hong Kong stock market improved, with all three major indices closing higher. The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.42%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 0.2%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index gained 0.48% [2] - The total market turnover was approximately HKD 193.4 billion, with short selling on the main board amounting to about HKD 33.2 billion, representing an increase to approximately 21.93% of the total turnover of shortable stocks [2] - Southbound capital flow remained weak, with a net outflow of approximately HKD 1 billion from northbound trading [2] Group 2: Sector Performance - The property sector performed well, with Vanke Enterprises (2202.HK) reportedly meeting with onshore bondholders to propose three plans to avoid debt default, leading to a surge of over 13% in its stock price [2] - Other property stocks such as Sunac China (1918.HK) and China Jinmao (817.HK) also recorded significant gains, driven by increased investor confidence in fiscal policy support for stabilizing the housing market [2] - The consumer sector showed active performance, with stocks in home appliances, holiday concepts, and sports goods rising, indicating ongoing investor interest in domestic demand recovery [2] Group 3: Company Analysis - Bosideng (3998.HK) - Bosideng's revenue for the first half of the fiscal year ending September 30, 2025, was HKD 8.928 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 1.189 billion, up 5.3% year-on-year, with a gross margin increase of 0.1 percentage points to 50.0% [6] - The brand's down jacket business saw revenue growth of 8.3% to HKD 6.568 billion, although gross margin declined by 2.0 percentage points to 59.1% due to faster growth in distribution channels compared to self-operated channels [7] - The women's wear segment experienced a decline in revenue by 18.6% to HKD 251 million, with a gross margin decrease of 1.9 percentage points to 59.9% due to a persistently sluggish market environment [8] Group 4: Investment Outlook - The company continues to focus on its main business and brand, with expectations for strong performance in the upcoming peak season. The forecasted EPS for the fiscal years 2026-2028 is HKD 0.35, 0.38, and 0.43 respectively, with a target price of HKD 6.0, maintaining a "Buy" rating [8]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the tourism and duty-free industry, with expectations of recovery and growth in the coming years [11][21]. Core Insights - The tourism market is experiencing a comprehensive recovery in 2025, with domestic travel numbers and spending surpassing pre-pandemic levels [12][13]. - The duty-free market is expected to benefit from policy adjustments and the expansion of the duty-free shopping framework, particularly in Hainan [30][33]. - The report highlights the increasing importance of travel as a lifestyle necessity, despite economic fluctuations [21][31]. Summary by Sections Tourism Industry Overview - Domestic travel in China is projected to reach 1.038 trillion USD by 2027, with a CAGR of 7% from 2025 to 2027 [19]. - In the first half of 2025, domestic travel numbers reached 3.285 billion, a 20.6% increase year-on-year, while spending reached 3.15 trillion CNY, up 15.2% [12]. Duty-Free Market Trends - The duty-free sales in Hainan saw a significant increase following policy changes, with sales amounting to 23.8 billion CNY in November 2025, a 27.1% year-on-year increase [32]. - The report anticipates a shift towards a collaborative growth model in the duty-free market, integrating island, city, and port sales [33]. Future Opportunities - The expansion of visa-free travel and the recovery of international flights are expected to drive inbound tourism and duty-free consumption [21]. - The upcoming full closure of Hainan's free trade port is anticipated to enhance the local consumption potential and attract more tourists [30]. Company Analysis - China Duty Free Group (1880.HK) is positioned as a market leader with a significant share in the domestic duty-free market, benefiting from ongoing policy optimizations [37]. - Hong Kong Travel (308.HK) is diversifying its revenue streams and focusing on high-value tourism projects, which may enhance its profitability as the market recovers [41]. - Meilan Airport (357.HK) is expected to benefit from increased passenger traffic and improved operational efficiency following the implementation of the free trade policies [46].

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline on December 8, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 1.23% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropping by 1.25% [2] - The total trading volume in the market was HKD 206.23 billion, with short selling accounting for 16.66% of the total trading volume [2] - Northbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 1.54 billion, with Xiaomi Group, SMIC, and Pop Mart being the most actively bought stocks [2][3] Group 2: Policy Insights - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the continuation of a proactive fiscal policy and a loose monetary policy to stimulate consumption and counter economic downward pressure [4] - The meeting outlined eight key principles for economic work in 2026, with a focus on domestic demand, innovation, reform, and green transformation [4] Group 3: Company Analysis - Bosideng (3998.HK) - Bosideng reported a revenue of HKD 8.928 billion for the first half of the fiscal year ending September 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, while net profit rose by 5.3% to HKD 1.189 billion [6] - The brand's down jacket business saw an 8.3% increase in revenue to HKD 6.568 billion, although the gross margin decreased by 2.0 percentage points to 59.1% [6] - The OEM business faced challenges, with revenue declining by 11.7% to HKD 2.044 billion, but gross margin improved by 0.4 percentage points to 20.5% due to effective cost management [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company is expected to perform well in the upcoming peak season, with projected EPS for fiscal years 2026-2028 at HKD 0.35, 0.38, and 0.43 respectively [8] - A target price of HKD 6.0 is set for the 2025/26 fiscal year, reflecting a 16 times PE ratio [8]

Company Overview - JD Industrial is a leading industrial supply chain service platform in China, focusing on supply chain digitization services through its "Taipu" platform, covering over 8.11 million SKUs across 80 categories[1] - As of June 2025, JD Industrial served 11,000 key enterprise clients, with a transaction scale of 14.6 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, representing a 17% year-on-year growth[1] Financial Performance - Total revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 10.25 billion RMB, a 19% increase year-on-year, with product sales contributing 9.6 billion RMB, accounting for 93% of total revenue[2] - Adjusted net profit for the same period was 495 million RMB, up 34% year-on-year, with a profit margin of 4.8%[2] Market Trends - The industrial supply chain technology and service market in China is projected to reach 800 billion RMB in 2025, growing at a CAGR of 8.3% from 2025 to 2029[3] - JD Industrial holds a 4.1% market share in the domestic supply chain technology and service market, leading the sector with a transaction scale of 28.8 billion RMB in 2024[3] Competitive Landscape - JD Industrial's market share is significantly higher than its closest competitors, with the second and third players holding 1.5% and 0.9% market shares, respectively[3] - The company benefits from a high customer retention rate and a transparent online trading platform, which enhances its competitive advantage[4] Risks and Challenges - The company's gross margin is lower than that of overseas peers, which may impact long-term net profit margins[5] - A significant portion of revenue (36% in 1H25) still comes from JD Group, indicating potential dependency risks[5] IPO Details - The IPO is scheduled from December 3 to December 8, 2025, with trading commencing on December 11, 2025[6] - The expected net proceeds from the offering are estimated at 2.827 billion HKD, with 35% allocated to enhancing supply chain solutions and 30% for potential strategic acquisitions[9] Valuation Insights - The expected IPO price range is 12.7 to 15.5 HKD, with a projected market capitalization of 34 to 41.5 billion HKD post-IPO[10] - The company's P/E ratio is estimated to be between 29.8x and 36.4x, which reflects a premium compared to domestic and overseas peers[10]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an IPO-specific rating of 5.6 out of 10 for the company, based on operational performance, industry outlook, valuation, and market sentiment [6]. Core Insights - The company, Naxin Micro (2676.HK), is a fabless analog chip design firm focusing on automotive electronics, energy, and consumer electronics, with a comprehensive product line including sensors, signal chain chips, and power management chips [1]. - Revenue is projected to grow from 1.67 billion in 2022 to 1.96 billion in 2024, with a significant increase in the first half of 2025, driven by demand in automotive electronics and the integration of the acquired company, Maiguan [1]. - The company ranks fifth among domestic analog chip firms in China and leads in automotive analog chip revenue, with strong customer recognition in the rapidly growing electric vehicle market [2]. Company Overview - Naxin Micro has over 3,600 product models and holds a strong market position in niche areas like digital isolation chips and magnetic sensors [1]. - The automotive electronics and energy sectors contribute over 85% of the company's revenue, highlighting their role as key growth drivers [1]. Industry Status and Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from the domestic semiconductor market's growth and the trend towards localization, particularly in the automotive sector, where demand for automotive-grade chips is surging [3]. - The company has a low overseas revenue contribution (1.0% in the first half of 2025) but plans to expand its global market presence [3]. Strengths and Opportunities - Naxin Micro is the largest domestic manufacturer of silicon carbide epitaxial wafers, with a production capacity of 420,000 wafers, which will further enhance its competitive edge [3]. - The company aims to increase its market share through product diversification and expanding its sales network internationally [3]. Financial Information - The company plans to raise approximately 2.21 billion HKD from its IPO, with funds allocated for technology enhancement, product diversification, and market expansion [10]. - The estimated market capitalization post-IPO is 18.745 billion HKD, with a net asset value per share of 47.33 HKD [11].