Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Index opening high but closing down by 123 points or 0.53% at 23,258 points, reflecting a decrease in trading volume by 11.05% to HKD 180.8 billion [2][4] - The net inflow from the Northbound trading was HKD 3.578 billion, a decrease of 70.1% compared to the previous day, with Meituan, China Mobile, and CNOOC being the most bought stocks, while Xiaomi, Hang Seng China Enterprises, and Kuaishou were the most sold [2][4] Group 2: U.S. Market Impact - The U.S. stock market saw declines of 0.51%-0.58% across major indices, influenced by concerns from the Federal Reserve regarding balancing employment and inflation targets amid high economic uncertainty [3] - A ruling from the U.S. International Trade Court against President Trump's tariffs provided a temporary boost to market sentiment, leading to a rebound in U.S. stock futures by over 1% [3] Group 3: Company Analysis - Meituan - Meituan reported a strong Q1 performance with total revenue of HKD 86.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18%, slightly exceeding market expectations [6] - Adjusted net profit rose by 46% year-on-year to HKD 10.9 billion, driven by better-than-expected marketing expense management [6] - Core local commerce revenue grew by 18%, with operating profit margin improving by 3 percentage points to 21% [6][7] Group 4: Business Segments Performance - The core local business maintained robust growth, with delivery, commission, and online marketing revenues increasing by 22%, 20%, and 15% year-on-year, respectively [7] - The food delivery segment saw an increase in daily order volume, particularly among high-frequency users, with an estimated growth rate of about 10% [7] - The new business segment's revenue grew by 19%, with losses narrowing to HKD 2.3 billion, reflecting ongoing investments in overseas markets [6][8] Group 5: Financial Forecast and Valuation - For Q2, total revenue is expected to grow by 13% year-on-year, with core local business and new business revenues projected to increase by 10% and 21%, respectively [8] - The full-year revenue forecast for 2025 has been adjusted to a 15% year-on-year increase, with core local business and new business growth rates of 13% and 20% anticipated [8] - The target price for Meituan has been revised down to HKD 177, indicating a potential upside of 34% from the recent closing price, maintaining a "buy" rating [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan (3690.HK) [1][4][6] Core Insights - Meituan's Q1 revenue and adjusted profit exceeded market expectations, with total revenue of 86.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18%, and adjusted net profit of 10.9 billion yuan, up 46% year-on-year [2][4] - The core local business operating profit increased by 39% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations by 10% [1][2] - The company is prioritizing long-term ecological investments over short-term profit margins, which may lead to short-term fluctuations in profitability but is expected to strengthen market share and ecological balance in the long run [1][4] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 total revenue was 86.6 billion yuan, slightly exceeding expectations by 1.4% and 1.3% from the report and market respectively [2] - Adjusted net profit for Q1 was 10.9 billion yuan, exceeding expectations by 18% and 13% [2] - Core local business revenue grew by 18% year-on-year, with operating profit margin increasing by 3 percentage points to 21% [2][4] - New business revenue increased by 19% year-on-year, with losses narrowing to 2.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year reduction of 18% [2][4] Business Segment Analysis - Core local business maintained steady growth, with delivery, commission, and online marketing revenues increasing by 22%, 20%, and 15% year-on-year respectively [3] - The management emphasized a commitment to compete effectively in the instant retail sector, planning to invest 100 billion yuan over the next three years [3] - The company reported strong growth in the takeaway and flash purchase segments, with daily order volume growth accelerating to approximately 10% [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts a 13% year-on-year revenue growth for Q2, with core local business and new business expected to grow by 10% and 21% respectively [4] - For the full year 2025, total revenue is projected to grow by 15%, with core local business and new business expected to grow by 13% and 20% respectively [4] - The target price is adjusted to 177 HKD, representing a potential upside of 34% from the recent closing price [4][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan (3690.HK) [1][4][6] Core Views - Meituan's long-term ecological investment priority is emphasized over short-term profit performance, with a 1% and 13% beat on revenue and adjusted profit expectations respectively for Q1 [1][2] - The core local business operating profit increased by 39% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations by 10% [1][2] - Active user and merchant numbers reached new highs, indicating strong growth potential [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 total revenue reached 86.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18%, slightly exceeding expectations [2] - Adjusted net profit for Q1 was 10.9 billion yuan, up 46% year-on-year, also exceeding expectations [2] - Core local business revenue grew by 18% year-on-year, with operating profit margin improving by 3 percentage points to 21% [2][4] Business Segment Analysis - The core local business showed robust growth with delivery, commission, and online marketing revenues increasing by 22%, 20%, and 15% respectively [3] - The food delivery segment saw an increase in user order frequency, particularly among high-frequency users, with daily order volume growth estimated at around 10% [3] - Instant retail competition is being addressed with a planned investment of 100 billion yuan over the next three years to enhance supply chain and merchant digital transformation [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - For Q2, total revenue is expected to grow by 13% year-on-year, with core local business and new business revenues projected to increase by 10% and 21% respectively [4] - The full-year revenue forecast for 2025 is adjusted to a 15% year-on-year increase, with core local business and new business expected to grow by 13% and 20% respectively [4] - The target price is set at 177 HKD, representing a 34% upside potential from the recent closing price [4][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 3.6 for the fiscal year ending February 2026, based on a 16x PE ratio [1][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue decline of 6.6% year-on-year to RMB 27.01 billion for FY25, primarily due to weak offline consumption and reduced foot traffic. The net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 41.9% to RMB 1.286 billion, indicating that profit decline outpaced revenue decline due to high fixed costs associated with offline operations [2][3]. - Despite the challenges, the company achieved a 20% year-on-year increase in operating cash flow, reaching RMB 3.755 billion, demonstrating strong cash flow management [2][3]. - The company declared a final dividend of HKD 0.02 per share and a special dividend of HKD 0.12 per share, resulting in a total payout ratio of 135%, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [2][3]. Financial Summary - For FY25, the company’s revenue was RMB 27,013 million, with a projected revenue of RMB 26,438 million for FY26, indicating a further decline of 2.1% [4][11]. - The gross margin decreased by 3.4 percentage points to 38.4% due to increased discounting and inventory clearance [2][4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY26 is projected to be RMB 0.21, with a slight increase to RMB 0.22 in FY27 and RMB 0.23 in FY28 [1][4]. Operational Efficiency - The company continues to optimize its store structure, reducing the number of direct-operated stores by 18.3% to 5,020, while the sales area decreased by 12.4%, indicating a focus on operational efficiency [3][4]. - The company is enhancing its single-store operational capabilities and plans to open new stores focusing on key brands and specialized categories [3][4]. Market Position - The main brands, Nike and Adidas, saw a revenue decline of 6.1% to RMB 23.31 billion, while other brands experienced a 9.9% drop to RMB 3.50 billion [2][3]. - The company is expanding its partnerships with both international and domestic sports brands, aiming to capture a larger market share as retail consumption improves [3][4].

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed a slight rebound with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.43%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 0.38%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 0.48% [2] - The total market turnover was HKD 203.268 billion, with short selling amounting to HKD 37.559 billion, representing 20.71% of the total turnover, indicating a significant increase compared to mid-May levels [2] - Northbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 11.975 billion, reversing the outflow trend observed in the previous days [2] Group 2: Sector Performance - Various sectors such as tobacco, aviation, beer, tea, sports goods, film, food, and holiday concepts experienced general increases, with notable gains in stocks like Mixue Group and Simoer International [4] - The pharmaceutical sector, including internet healthcare and biopharmaceuticals, also saw significant upward movement, benefiting from upcoming events and favorable policies [4] - Conversely, the automotive dealership, lithium battery, and Tesla-related sectors faced declines, with concerns over a new price war impacting profit margins [4] Group 3: Company Analysis - Tmall (6110.HK) - Tmall reported a revenue decline of 6.6% year-on-year to HKD 27.01 billion, primarily due to weak offline consumption and reduced foot traffic [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 41.9% to HKD 1.29 billion, with a more significant drop in profit than revenue due to high fixed costs leading to operational leverage [7] - Despite the challenges, the company maintained a strong cash flow, achieving a 20% increase in operating cash flow to HKD 3.8 billion [7] Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - Tmall is optimizing its store structure, reducing the number of direct-operated stores by 18.3% to 5,020, while focusing on improving operational efficiency [8] - The company is enhancing its brand partnerships, including collaborations with high-end running brands, to diversify its brand matrix [8] - The investment outlook remains positive, with expectations of a gradual recovery in retail consumption and a projected EPS of HKD 0.21/0.22/0.23 for FY26/27/28, maintaining a target price of HKD 3.6 [8]

Group 1: Market Overview - The recent rebound in the US stock market is questioned as a potential "dead cat bounce" amid ongoing trade tensions and macroeconomic uncertainties [5][11][12] - The S&P 500 index experienced a decline of 2.6% last week, halting a rebound that had been ongoing since mid-April, primarily due to poor US Treasury auction results and renewed trade war threats from Trump [11][12][29] - The market remains cautious, with investors closely monitoring developments in the trade war and the Federal Reserve's communications [5][11] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US retail sales showed a slight month-on-month increase of 0.1% in April, which was slightly above market expectations, but several categories, particularly those reliant on imports, saw declines [34][35] - Consumer confidence, as measured by the University of Michigan, has been on a downward trend, dropping from 57.0 in March to 50.8 in May, indicating persistent weakness in consumer sentiment [34][35] - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month in April, which was below expectations, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a significant drop of 0.4%, the largest monthly decline since 2015 [40][41] Group 3: Credit Risk and Market Sentiment - The upward trend in credit risk spreads typically lasts over six months and is associated with bear markets, indicating a potential negative cycle in corporate fundamentals and market sentiment [16][17] - Current credit spreads are rising, suggesting that market volatility may continue into the second or third quarter of 2025 [16][17] - The recent downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating by Moody's reflects concerns over rising debt levels and expanding budget deficits, which could further impact market confidence [29][30] Group 4: Trade War Implications - The trade war narrative remains central to market movements, with recent negotiations between the US and China leading to a temporary reduction in tariffs, which briefly boosted the S&P 500 index [11][12] - The potential for increased tariffs on EU goods and non-US produced products has raised fears of a broader trade conflict, which could significantly impact bilateral trade and market stability [11][12][46] - The upcoming legislative discussions regarding the "Beautiful Act" could exacerbate the federal deficit, complicating the economic landscape further [24][25]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index opened lower and closed down 318 points or 1.35% at 23,282 points, with a trading volume of 223.5 billion HKD, an increase of 9.75% from the previous day [2] - Northbound capital recorded a net outflow of 1.507 billion HKD, an increase of 32.3% from the previous day, with Meituan, China Mobile, and Horizon Robotics being the most bought stocks, while Tencent, Alibaba, and the Tracker Fund were the most sold [2] Group 2: Meituan Q1 Performance - Meituan's total revenue increased by 18% year-on-year, slightly exceeding market expectations by 1.3% (1.1 billion HKD), with core local business and new business revenues growing by 18% and 19% respectively [4] - Adjusted net profit exceeded expectations by 13%, with core local business profits rising by 39% and operating profit margin (OPM) improving by 3 percentage points to 21% [4] - New business commission revenue surged by 85% to 1.2 billion HKD, reflecting strong overseas business performance, although the segment reported a loss of 2.3 billion HKD, narrowing by 500 million HKD year-on-year [4] Group 3: Meituan Management Insights - Management emphasized the need for competitive investment and expressed confidence in winning the market, indicating potential fluctuations in profit margins due to increased investments [4] - For the next three years, Meituan plans to invest 100 billion HKD to promote healthy development in the catering industry, while also focusing on supporting small and medium-sized merchants and protecting rider rights [4] Group 4: Tongcheng Travel Q1 Performance - Tongcheng Travel reported total revenue of 4.4 billion HKD in Q1, a year-on-year increase of 13%, with core OTA revenue growing by 18% [7] - The operating profit for core OTA increased by 53% year-on-year, with an operating profit margin of 29.2%, benefiting from improved subsidy and marketing efficiency [7] - Adjusted net profit rose by 41% to 790 million HKD, exceeding market expectations by 11% [7] Group 5: Tongcheng Travel Strategic Moves - Tongcheng Travel announced plans to fully acquire Wanda Hotel Management for approximately 2.5 billion HKD, which is expected to enhance user demand coverage and potentially increase average transaction value [8] - The acquisition aligns with Tongcheng's existing hotel supply and is anticipated to create synergies that will benefit the company's overall performance [8] Group 6: Financial Forecasts - For Q2, core OTA revenue is expected to grow by 13% year-on-year, with accommodation and transportation ticketing revenues projected to increase by 12% and 10% respectively [9] - The overall revenue for 2025 is adjusted to a year-on-year increase of 12%, with core OTA revenue and operating profit expected to rise by 17% and 23% respectively [9] - The target price for Tongcheng Travel is adjusted to 24.4 HKD, reflecting a potential upside of 29% from the recent closing price, maintaining a "buy" rating [9]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed volatility, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 23,601 points, up 56 points or 0.2% [2] - The total market turnover increased to HKD 203.67 billion, with short-selling amounting to HKD 33.83 billion, representing 16.61% of the total turnover [2] - Northbound capital saw a net outflow of HKD 1.139 billion, contrasting with a net inflow of HKD 3.88 billion the previous day [2] Group 2: Sector Performance - The film sector performed strongly, with Alibaba Pictures (1060.HK) rising 63.83% over four days, driven by optimism regarding its IP merchandise potential [4] - Solar energy stocks like Fuyao Glass (3606.HK) and Rainbow New Energy (00438.HK) showed notable performance, while nuclear power stocks also led gains [4] - The automotive sector benefited from strong retail market growth, with companies like NIO (1316.HK) and Great Wall Motors (2333.HK) recording increases [4] Group 3: Consumption Insights - In April, total retail sales reached CNY 37,174 billion, growing 5.1% year-on-year, indicating a gradual recovery in consumption [7] - The retail sales of household appliances surged by 38.8% year-on-year in April, supported by government subsidies [8] - Food and beverage sectors showed mixed results, with grain and oil retail sales growing 14.0% year-on-year, while automotive retail sales only increased by 0.7% [8] Group 4: Price Trends - The average price of live pigs in May was CNY 7.47 per kg, down 0.2% month-on-month and 6.7% year-on-year, indicating a stabilization after a decline [9] - The average price of fresh milk was CNY 3.07 per kg, reflecting a 0.1% decrease month-on-month and a 9.2% decrease year-on-year [9] - Commodity prices showed fluctuations, with corrugated paper prices decreasing by 2.2% month-on-month, while PET prices increased by 3.2% [10] Group 5: Investment Strategies - The report highlights investment opportunities in companies like Mixue Group (2097), which is positioned as a leader in the milk tea market with a strong supply chain [11] - Kang Shifu Holdings (0322) is noted for its cost reduction leading to profit improvement, with a dividend yield of 5.4%, making it an attractive investment [11]

Group 1 - The market is currently in an observation period with significant volatility, as evidenced by the decline in major indices: Hang Seng Index down 1.19%, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down 1.19%, and Hang Seng Tech Index down 1.7% [2] - The total turnover in the market has decreased to 198.229 billion, with a high short-selling amount of 34.358 billion, accounting for 19.327% of the total turnover of shortable stocks [2] - Southbound funds have seen a rebound, with a net inflow of 3.881 billion on Thursday, with the most bought stocks being China Construction Bank, Meituan, and Pop Mart, while Tencent, Xpeng Motors, and Alibaba saw the most net selling [2] Group 2 - In the sector analysis, technology-related stocks such as film, short video, and cloud office have generally weakened, with significant declines in major tech stocks like Alibaba and Baidu [4] - Consumer sectors, including beer, department stores, and sports goods, have also experienced declines, with notable drops in Budweiser Asia Pacific and Anta Sports [4] - Conversely, some tobacco and cosmetics stocks have risen, with Smoore International increasing by 6.25% due to consumption-boosting policies in Shanghai [4] Group 3 - The macroeconomic outlook indicates a slight recovery in the U.S. economy, with the May composite PMI rising from 50.6 in April to 52.1, signaling a rebound from a 19-month low [5] - U.S. retail and food service sales in April totaled 724.1 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.2% and a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, indicating a return to normal consumption levels prior to tariff impacts [7] - Online retail sales continue to outperform the market, with April sales reaching 123.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.5% [8]

Group 1: Market Overview - The report highlights a recent rally in the Hong Kong stock market, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 23,827 points, up 146 points or 0.62% from the previous day [2] - The trading volume in the main board increased by 5.1% to HKD 216.3 billion, indicating a recovery in market activity [2] - Despite a net inflow of capital from the Northbound trading, the amount decreased significantly by 77.5% to HKD 1.427 billion [2] Group 2: Industry Performance - Among the 12 Hang Seng Composite Industry indices, 11 sectors saw gains, with the materials, healthcare, energy, and consumer discretionary sectors leading the way, rising between 1.30% and 3.68% [2] - The only sector that declined was consumer staples, which fell by 0.37% [2] Group 3: Company Analysis - Xiaopeng Motors - Xiaopeng Motors reported a strong Q1 performance with total revenue of RMB 15.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 141%, and a net loss reduced by 51% to RMB 660 million [4] - The company plans to launch five model upgrades in Q2 and two new models in Q3, indicating a robust growth momentum [4] - Xiaopeng Motors' ADR surged by 12.3% following the earnings announcement, reflecting positive market sentiment [4] Group 4: Company Analysis - Trip.com Group - Trip.com Group reported a steady Q1 performance with net revenue of RMB 13.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16%, meeting market expectations [6] - The accommodation booking segment grew by 23%, while transportation ticketing revenue increased by 8%, contributing significantly to overall revenue growth [6] - The company anticipates continued revenue growth in Q2, benefiting from a stable domestic market and expanding international operations [7] Group 5: Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts the revenue and profit forecasts for 2025, expecting a 15% year-on-year revenue growth, with accommodation bookings projected to grow by 16% and transportation bookings by 9% [8] - The target price for Trip.com Group is set at HKD 591 (9961.HK) / USD 76 (TCOM.US), corresponding to a 20x price-to-earnings ratio for 2025, maintaining a "Buy" rating [8] - The company has repurchased USD 84 million worth of shares year-to-date, with plans for further buybacks in the Hong Kong market [8]