港股晨报 2025 年 9 月 30 日 国证国际证券（香港）有限公司 • 研究部 周一，港股三大指数均表现强势，恒生指数涨 1.89%，国企指数涨 1.62%，恒 生科技指数涨 2.08%。大市成交金额 3090.96 亿元，主板总卖空金额 409.01 亿 元，占可卖空股票总成交额比率为 14.76%。南向资金流（北水）反转流出。港 股通净流出金额为 16.54 亿港元。港股通 10 大成交活跃股中，北水净买入最 多的是阿里巴巴 9988.HK、腾讯控股 700.HK、小米集团-W 1810.HK；净卖出最 多的是盈富基金 2800.HK、中国移动 941.HK、美团 3690.HK。北向资金方面， 9 月 30 日北向资金共成交 2946.18 亿元，占两市总成交额的 13.63%。紫金矿 业 601899.SH、中信证券 600030.SH、寒武纪 688256.SH 位列沪股通成交前三， 成交额分别为 31.38 亿、27.23 亿、23.41 亿；宁德时代 300750.SZ、东方财富 300059.SZ、阳光电源 300274.SZ 位列深股通成交前三，成交额分别为 37.86 亿、33.92 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 1.35%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down by 1.49%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropping by 2.89% [2] - The total trading volume in the market was HKD 3.23 billion, with short selling amounting to HKD 438 billion, representing a short selling ratio of 14.98% [2] - Southbound capital flow remained high, with a net inflow of HKD 10.5 billion through the Stock Connect [2] Group 2: Sector Performance - Major technology sectors faced pressure, with declines in SaaS, short video, and cloud computing stocks, including notable drops in companies like Alibaba and Kingsoft [3] - Apple-related stocks also saw widespread declines, reflecting a generally weak market sentiment [3] - Defensive sectors such as electricity, food and beverage, and certain cyclical industries like heavy machinery and coal performed well, providing a temporary refuge for investors [4] Group 3: Company Analysis - Youjia Innovation (佑驾创新) - Youjia Innovation launched two unmanned logistics vehicle products, T5 and T8, marking a significant breakthrough in its L4 autonomous vehicle business [7] - The T5 model has a cargo space of 5.5m³, a maximum load of 1000kg, and a range of 180km, while the T8 model offers 8.5m³ of space, a maximum load of 1700kg, and a range of 240km [8] - The company aims to deliver 10,000 unmanned logistics vehicles by 2026, targeting key cities for large-scale operations [8] Group 4: Regulatory Environment - A new mandatory national standard for intelligent connected vehicles was proposed, which is expected to benefit Youjia Innovation by clarifying technical requirements and safety standards for L2 systems [9] - This regulatory framework is anticipated to curb industry chaos and promote increased R&D investment, potentially leading to more orders for Youjia Innovation [9] Group 5: Investment Recommendation - The target price for Youjia Innovation is set at HKD 31.4, with a buy rating based on an estimated 8.1 times forecasted sales for 2026 [7][9]

报告内容 过度超买触发调整。近期美股市场出现一波集中抛售，我们认为主要原因并非来自 新增的冲击性宏观因素，而是前期涨势过快、技术面过度超买所致。无论是标普 500、纳指还是道指，在连续数周强劲反弹后，均处于偏高估值区间，资金稍有避 险情绪便引发获利回吐。值得注意的是，与股市同步，数字货币市场率先爆发更大 规模的调整。据统计，在 9 月 22 日超过 40 万名数字货币投资者遭遇强制平仓， 涉及平仓金额超过 16 亿美元。比特币、以太币等价格随之大跌，导致整体数字资 产市值跌破 4 万亿美元的重要关口。数字货币行情向来波动剧烈，本轮急跌更多 反映出在宏观数据公布前的高杠杆平仓潮。这样的资金动态呈现出一个共同特征： 前期投资人过于乐观，迭加政策不确定性升高，最终导致风险资产集中性调整。 PMI 显示经济增速放缓，但未出现硬着陆迹象。从经济基本面来看，日前标普环球 （S&P Global）公布最新的美国 9 月 PMI 虽然略低于预期，但仍维持在 50 荣枯 线之上，显示经济活动处于扩张区间。其中，本季度产出指数录得年初以来最佳表 现。值得留意的是，随着需求增长放缓，企业招聘变得更为保守，而通胀压力也有 所缓解，有 ...

港股晨报 1. 国证视点：突发停产影响铜板块活跃，美国经济数据喜 忧参半 周四，港股三大指数涨跌不一，恒生指数跌 0.13%，国企指数涨 0.01%，恒生 科技指数涨 0.89%。大市成交金额 3148.90 亿元，主板总卖空金额 451.61 亿 元，占可卖空股票总成交额比率为 16.05%。南向资金流（北水）微跌。港股通 净流入金额为 110.46 亿港元。港股通 10 大成交活跃股中，北水净买入最多的 是阿里巴巴 9988.HK、腾讯控股 700.HK、中芯国际 981.HK；净卖出最多的是小 米集团 1810.HK、晶泰控股 2228.HK、光大控股 165.HK。北向资金方面，9 月 25 日北向资金共成交 2984.25 亿元，占两市总成交额的 12.59%。工业富联 601138.SH、海光信息 688041.SH、寒武纪 688256.SH 位列沪股通成交前三，成 交额分别为 29.33 亿、24.07 亿、20.08 亿；立讯精密 002475.SZ、宁德时代 300750.SZ、中际旭创 300308.SZ 位列深股通成交前三，成交额分别为 52.65 亿、45.36 亿、38.09 亿。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 20.9, up from a previous target of HKD 12.8 [1][4][7] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of USD 938 million for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 47%, and a net profit of USD 32 million, which is a 3.4 times increase compared to the previous year [1][2] - The revenue from the advertising technology business reached USD 929 million, also growing by 47.6%, with the programmatic advertising platform Mintegral contributing USD 897 million, a growth of 48.6% [2][3] - The report highlights that the strengthening of antitrust policies is creating more opportunities for the industry, despite a slowdown in global economic growth [2] - The mixed monetization strategy is becoming mainstream, combining various revenue sources such as ads, subscriptions, and in-app purchases, which enhances revenue diversity [3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the expected earnings per share (EPS) are projected at USD 0.06, with subsequent years forecasted at USD 0.08 for 2026 and USD 0.10 for 2027 [1][4] - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from USD 1,054.1 million in 2023 to USD 2,093.1 million in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 38.8% [5][11] - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to increase significantly from USD 19.1 million in 2023 to USD 99.9 million in 2025, with a growth rate of 102.5% [5][11] Market Dynamics - The report notes that the advertising industry continues to grow despite challenges, driven by advancements in AI and machine learning technologies that enhance user targeting without compromising privacy [2][3] - The introduction of smart bidding products has significantly contributed to revenue growth, with over 80% of Mintegral's total revenue coming from this product line in the first half of 2025 [3]

Group 1: Company Overview - The company, 西普尼 (2083.HK), is a designer, manufacturer, and brand owner of gold case and gold bezel watches in China, primarily generating revenue from its flagship brand "HIPINE" and ODM business [6] - Revenue is projected to grow from 320 million RMB in 2022 to 456 million RMB in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18% [6] - Net profit is expected to increase from 24 million RMB to 49 million RMB during the same period, with a CAGR of 43% [6] Group 2: Industry Status and Outlook - The precious metal watch market in China is expected to grow steadily, with a projected market size of 26.46 billion RMB by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 4.54% from 2019 to 2024 [7] - The company's market share in the gold watch segment is the largest, with a projected market share of 27.08% in the gold case watch sector and 28.96% in the gold bezel watch sector by 2024 [7] Group 3: Strengths and Opportunities - The company has a strong reputation for product design that aligns with market demands, allowing it to capture changing consumer preferences effectively [8] - It possesses robust R&D capabilities, enabling the production of high-quality gold watches without compromising gold purity [8] - The company has a wide and stable sales network, with products available in over 3,000 offline retail points and various e-commerce platforms [8] Group 4: Fundraising and Use of Proceeds - The company anticipates net fundraising of 255 million HKD, with approximately 40% allocated to capacity enhancement, 17% to R&D improvement, 33% to brand activities and sales network expansion, and 10% for working capital [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meta Platforms (META.US) with an updated target price of $901, up from a previous $854 [1][3][6]. Core Insights - Meta Platforms has launched three new smart glasses at the 2025 Meta Connect event, enhancing its software ecosystem and introducing advanced features such as Conversation Focus and Live AI [2][3]. - The partnership with Essilor Luxottica is highlighted as stable and mutually beneficial, with significant sales growth in smart glasses, reaching over 3 million units sold by Q2 2025 [2][3]. - Financial forecasts indicate an 18% revenue growth for 2025, with a 25% increase in net profit, leading to an adjusted target price based on a 29x P/E ratio for 2025 [3][4]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from $134.9 billion in 2023 to $194.9 billion in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18% [4][26]. - Net profit is expected to rise from $39.1 billion in 2023 to $78.0 billion in 2025, reflecting a net profit margin increase from 29% to 40% [4][26]. - The report anticipates a diluted EPS of $29.8 for 2025, with a P/E ratio of 25.1 [4][26]. Product Launches - The new smart glasses include: - Meta Ray-Ban Display priced at $799, featuring a single-eye HUD display and muscle electrical control [9][10]. - Ray-Ban Meta (Gen 2) priced at $379, with improved battery life and video recording capabilities [9][10]. - Oakley Meta Vanguard priced at $499, designed for high-intensity sports with enhanced field of view [9][10]. Market Position - Meta's strategic investments and partnerships are expected to strengthen its market position in the smart glasses segment, leveraging Essilor Luxottica's brand and distribution channels [2][3].

Company Overview - Zijin Gold International is a leading global gold mining company, integrating all gold mines owned by Zijin Mining outside of China, primarily engaged in gold exploration, mining, processing, smelting, refining, and sales[1] - As of the last feasible date, the company holds interests in 8 gold mines located in resource-rich areas across Central Asia, South America, Oceania, and Africa[6] Industry Status and Growth - Global gold demand is expected to grow steadily, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.8% from 2020 to 2024, driven by increased central bank reserves and investment demand[28] - Global gold production is projected to experience moderate growth, with a 2024 output of 116.3 million ounces, reflecting a CAGR of 1%[30] Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of $1,818.0 million, $2,262.4 million, and $2,989.9 million for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively, with a CAGR of 28.2%[25] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for the same years was $183.7 million, $230.4 million, and $481.4 million, achieving a CAGR of 61.9%[25] Production and Cost Efficiency - The company ranks first among the top fifteen global gold producers in terms of production growth rate, with a CAGR of 21.4% from 2022 to 2024[6] - The all-in sustaining cost (AISC) for gold production is approximately $1,458 per ounce, placing the company in the lower tier among its peers[19] IPO and Capital Utilization - The IPO is set for September 29, 2025, with a total issuance amount of approximately HKD 249.84 billion, and net proceeds expected to be HKD 244.70 billion[5] - Approximately 33.4% of the net proceeds will be used to acquire the Raygorodok gold mine in Kazakhstan, while 50.1% will fund upgrades and construction projects for existing mines[8] Strategic Advantages - The company possesses strong geological exploration capabilities and cost-effective expansion construction, driving sustainable organic growth[3] - A visionary management team with extensive expertise and global insights supports the company's strategic direction and operational excellence[3] Risks and Challenges - Fluctuations in gold prices may adversely affect the company's performance, alongside geopolitical and operational risks associated with operating in multiple countries[4] - The company faces uncertainties related to exploration results and potential illegal mining activities[4]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.0%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December of the previous year [1] - The FOMC's latest economic projections indicate that most members expect an additional 50 basis points of rate cuts this year, with further cuts of 25 basis points anticipated in 2026 and 2027, reflecting a continued accommodative stance [1][2] - The U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been revised upward to 1.6%, up from 1.4% previously, indicating resilience in the economy despite high interest rates [2] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Spending - Retail sales in August increased by 0.6%, significantly exceeding market expectations, with core retail sales (excluding autos and gas) rising by 0.7% [2] - Online shopping saw a growth rate of 2.0%, and dining out also increased, suggesting that high-income households are driving current consumer spending [2] - However, the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index fell to 55.4 in September, indicating a decline in households' outlook on future income and employment [2] Group 3: Inflation Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.38% in August, the fastest increase this year, with core CPI increasing by 0.35%, both surpassing market expectations [3] - Inflationary pressures are shifting from goods to services, with significant increases in housing-related rents and travel costs [3] - The market may need to adjust its expectations regarding economic weakness, as core inflation is driven by strong service demand rather than just goods prices [3] Group 4: Labor Market Dynamics - August employment data showed a significant decline, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000, well below the expected 75,000 [4] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.32%, indicating a weakening labor market, with most industries experiencing job losses [4] - The FOMC is closely monitoring labor market risks, and if conditions worsen, there may be further room for policy response [4][12] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on ETFs related to housing, digital currencies, and gold, such as ITB.US, IBIT.US, and GLD.US, as potential investment opportunities in the current economic climate [5][13] - Given the ongoing economic resilience, sectors sensitive to interest rates, such as housing and construction, are expected to benefit from the current environment [13]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market indices experienced a collective decline, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 1.35%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down by 1.46%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index decreasing by 0.99% [2] - The report highlights a significant interest in the collaboration between Nvidia and Intel, which is expected to impact the semiconductor sector positively [6] Company Overview - Chery Automobile is a leading passenger car manufacturer in China, established in 1997, with five major brands catering to diverse customer needs [8] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 926.2 billion, 1,632.1 billion, and 2,699.0 billion CNY from 2022 to 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 70.7% [8] Industry Status and Outlook - The global passenger car industry is entering a mature phase, with total sales expected to reach 74.3 million units in 2024 and a CAGR of 3.5% from 2025 to 2030 [9] - The Chinese passenger car market is robust, with sales projected to reach 22.7 million units in 2024, growing at a CAGR of 1.9% from 2019 to 2024 [9] Advantages and Opportunities - Chery Automobile boasts a diverse brand matrix and strong R&D capabilities, positioning it well for future technological advancements [10] - The company is recognized as a leading Chinese passenger car enterprise with significant global expansion potential [10] Investment Recommendations - The IPO of Chery Automobile is supported by a strong lineup of cornerstone investors, with the offering price set between 27.75 and 30.75 HKD, leading to a post-IPO market capitalization of approximately 160.04 to 177.34 billion HKD [12] - The report suggests that Chery is comparable to other leading domestic brands like Great Wall Motors and Geely, with a lower valuation relative to Geely [12]