[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/农业/养殖业 证券研究报告 海大集团（002311）公司季报点评 2024 年 10 月 20 日 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------|-------------| | 股票数据 | | | 10 [ Table_StockInfo 月 18 日收盘价（元） ] | 42.81 | | 52 周股价波动（元） | 34.13-54.54 | | 总股本 / 流通 A 股（百万股） | 1664/1663 | | 总市值 / 流通市值（百万元） | 71225/71173 | | 相关研究 | | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《竞争加速分化，龙头优势将持续放大》 | | | 2024.07.31 | | | 《饲料主业依旧亮眼，养殖业务边际改善》 | | | 2023.10.23 | | | 市场表现 | | [Table_QuoteInf ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the media sector [2]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the media sector has high elasticity characteristics due to improved market risk appetite, making it an attractive investment opportunity [3]. - Key investment directions include: 1. Technology: Continuous focus on domestic and international AI models and the development of AI hardware and software, as well as AR and VR product progress. 2. Mergers and Acquisitions: Current regulatory encouragement for mergers and acquisitions, particularly for state-owned enterprises and small to mid-cap companies, which may enhance asset value and facilitate strategic transformation. 3. Upcoming quarterly reports: Attention should be paid to the Hong Kong internet sector and high-dividend A-share blue-chip companies [3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Hai Tong Media portfolio saw a weekly increase of 6.16%, while the Shenwan Media Index rose by 7.25%, and the CSI 300 Index increased by 0.98% [4]. - The top-performing stocks in the Hai Tong Media portfolio included: - Tencent Holdings: -1.82% - Kuaishou: -6.00% - Ciweng Media: +9.63% - Shenzhou Taiyue: +16.67% - Yidian Tianxia: +11.52% - Kaiying Network: +13.07% [5]. Recommendations - Suggested stocks to focus on include: 1. Hong Kong Internet: Tencent Holdings, Bilibili-W, Kuaishou-W. 2. Gaming: Kaiying Network, Shenzhou Taiyue, Jibite, 37 Interactive Entertainment, Century Huatong. 3. Marketing: Fenzhong Media, Yidian Tianxia. 4. IP Entertainment: Shanghai Film, Zhongwen Online, Yaoji Technology, Aofei Entertainment. 5. AI Applications: Kunlun Wanwei, Meitu, Huace Film & TV. 6. Undervalued State-owned Enterprises: Broadcasting (Jishi Media, Zhongguo Tianze), Publishing (Southern Media, Wanxin Media, Times Publishing). 7. High-growth lottery sector: Songyang Resources [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the VR&AR industry [1] Core Insights - The global VR&AR market is expected to grow by 6% in 2024 compared to 2023, with VR sales projected to reach 7.97 million units, reversing the sales decline of the past two years [2][4] - Apple has entered the market with the Vision Pro, a revolutionary spatial computing device that integrates digital content seamlessly into the real world, potentially driving the next "iPhone" moment [3][15] - The Vision Pro features a dual-chip design (M2+R1), optical display, new interaction methods, spatial audio, and EyeSight technology, enhancing user experience [3][19][21] Summary by Sections Global VR&AR Market Overview - Meta's headset sales are declining, and the Vision Pro may create a strong wait-and-see sentiment among potential VR buyers in 2024 [3][18] Apple Enters with Vision Pro - The Vision Pro is designed to create a boundless canvas for apps, offering a new 3D interaction experience through eye, hand, and voice control [15][17] Hardware Changes - The Vision Pro's M2 and R1 chips enable fast data transmission, while its microOLED display offers over 23 million pixels, surpassing 4K TVs [19][21] Software Changes - The Vision Pro runs on VisionOS, which will require developers to create AR and VR apps specifically for the device, enhancing productivity and entertainment experiences [33][35] Key Manufacturers - Notable companies in the industry include Luxshare Precision, Zhaowei Electromechanical, and Huaxing Yuanchuang [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - In September 2024, European new energy vehicle (NEV) sales reached 232,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 8.1% and a month-on-month increase of 84.2%. The cumulative sales from January to September 2024 totaled 1.583 million units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 4.4% [2][4] - The penetration rate of NEVs in Europe reached 25.5% in September 2024, up 2.5 percentage points year-on-year and 3.0 percentage points month-on-month [2][4] - The report highlights that the UK, Germany, and France are the top three countries in terms of NEV sales in September 2024, with the UK showing a significant year-on-year growth of 26.6% [2][25][16] - The report anticipates rapid growth in NEV sales in Europe from 2025 to 2030 due to carbon emission assessment policies [2] - Emerging markets are experiencing a rapid increase in electrification rates, with strong competitiveness from domestic quality supply [2] Summary by Sections European Market - In September 2024, NEV sales in Europe were 232,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 8.1% and a month-on-month increase of 84.2%. Cumulative sales from January to September were 1.583 million units, down 4.4% year-on-year. The penetration rate was 25.5%, up 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [2][4] - The UK led with 81,000 units sold in September, a year-on-year increase of 26.6% and a month-on-month increase of 224.8%. The penetration rate was 29.4%, up 6.0 percentage points year-on-year [2][25] - Germany's NEV sales were 49,415 units in September, up 4.9% year-on-year and 21.7% month-on-month, with a penetration rate of 23.7% [2][6] - France saw NEV sales of 38,376 units, down 16.3% year-on-year but up 99.1% month-on-month, with a penetration rate of 27.6% [2][16] US Market - In September 2024, NEV sales in the US were 127,000 units, down 3.4% year-on-year and 13.6% month-on-month. Cumulative sales from January to September were 1.146 million units, up 6.5% year-on-year [2] Emerging Markets - In August 2024, NEV sales in emerging markets were 85,000 units, up 17.0% year-on-year but down 2.5% month-on-month. Cumulative sales from January to August were 640,000 units, up 24.3% year-on-year [2] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Leap Motor, BYD, CATL, and others, as China's battery industry is globally leading and expected to benefit from overseas market growth [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of approximately 3.422 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.00%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be between 103 million and 110 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 109.74% to 124.00% [5] - The consumer electronics market is recovering, while the new energy sector faces short-term pressure. The server business is progressing steadily. The terminal business benefits from the recovery in domestic consumer electronics demand, leading to increased market share and improved profitability [5] - The company anticipates revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of 5.093 billion yuan, 5.828 billion yuan, and 6.596 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [7][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company expects a revenue of 5.093 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.2%. The net profit is projected to be 245 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 137.8% [7][10] - The gross margin is expected to improve gradually, reaching 20.1% by 2026 [10] Business Segments - The electromagnetic shielding materials and devices segment is projected to generate 1.352 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 15.00% [8] - The thermal management materials and devices segment is expected to see revenue of 2.166 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 25.00% [8] Market Comparison - The company's stock has shown a relative performance of 22.8% over the last three months compared to the market index [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the low-altitude economy, projecting a market size of 1.5 trillion yuan by 2025 and 3.5 trillion yuan by 2035 [10][12]. Core Insights - The low-altitude economy encompasses both traditional general aviation and drone-supported services, integrating digital management technologies and various economic activities, thus presenting significant growth potential [10]. - National policies have increasingly recognized the low-altitude economy, with various strategic initiatives and frameworks established since 2010 to promote its development [12]. - In 2024, 26 provinces have introduced supportive policies for the low-altitude economy, indicating a competitive push among regions to capitalize on this emerging market [16]. Summary by Sections Market Size Projections - The low-altitude economy is expected to reach a market size of 1.5 trillion yuan by 2025 and 3.5 trillion yuan by 2035, driven by advancements in technology and integration with various sectors [10]. National Policy Framework - The low-altitude economy has been incorporated into national planning, with significant policy developments occurring since 2010, including the establishment of non-restricted airspace for drones and general aviation [12][13]. Regional Development Initiatives - Various provinces have set ambitious targets for the low-altitude economy, with plans to achieve significant market sizes by 2025 and 2027, showcasing a competitive landscape for development [16][17]. Infrastructure and Beneficiary Companies - Infrastructure development is crucial for the low-altitude economy, with planning and design firms positioned to benefit from the construction of general airports and related facilities. Key companies include Shenzhen Urban Transport, Huase Group, and others [4][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the new materials industry [1] Core Insights - The new materials industry is experiencing rapid growth, with a total output value of approximately 6.8 trillion yuan in 2022 and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.66% over the past five years [5][9] - Government policies are increasingly supportive of the development of strategic emerging industries, including new materials, with significant increases in R&D investment from state-owned enterprises [5][8] - The primary market for new materials is seeing a continuous rise in investment and financing activities, with 558 financing events totaling approximately 69.7 billion yuan in 2023 [9][12] - The secondary market has 46 public funds focused on new materials, with the largest fund being the Jiashi New Energy New Materials A Fund, totaling 2.659 billion yuan [15] Summary by Sections 1. Policy Support for New Materials - The government is actively promoting the development of new materials as part of strategic emerging industries, with a focus on innovation and integration [5][8] 2. Primary Market Investment Trends - Investment in the new materials sector is on the rise, with significant financing events and active participation from various investment institutions [9][12] 3. Secondary Market Fund Overview - A total of 46 public funds are dedicated to new materials, with notable funds including Jiashi and Industrial Bank [15] 4. Key Companies in New Materials - Major companies in the new materials sector include: - **CATL**: Leading in lithium battery production with a market share of 27.7% as of August 2023 [20] - **Wanhua Chemical**: A global leader in polyurethane with rapid growth in new materials [22] - **LONGi Green Energy**: The largest manufacturer of monocrystalline silicon, expanding production capacity [26] - **Tongwei Co.**: Increasing its photovoltaic business revenue share [32] - **TCL Zhonghuan**: A leading manufacturer of photovoltaic silicon wafers [34] - **San'an Optoelectronics**: The largest compound semiconductor producer in China [38] - **Huayou Cobalt**: Developing an integrated supply chain for new materials [42] - **SanHuan Group**: A leader in electronic ceramics [47] - **Oriental Yuhong**: A construction materials service provider focusing on waterproofing [52] - **New Era Chemical**: A leader in fluorine fine chemicals [57]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Viewpoints - Eramet has lowered its 2024 nickel ore sales guidance, indicating a shift towards industry rebalancing. The Indonesian Ministry of Mining has limited PT WBN's annual sales volume to 32 million wet tons for 2024-2026, which is below the company's production capacity [3] - PT WBN is recognized as one of the largest nickel mines globally, with an estimated recoverable nickel reserve of 2.8 million wet metal tons. In 2023, PT WBN produced 36.3 million wet tons, accounting for 17% of global production [3] - Nickel prices are expected to rebound from their lows, supported by cost factors. As of October 17, the price of electrolytic nickel was 134,000 yuan per ton, up 12,200 yuan from the September low [3] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown a performance of 23.75%, while the Haitong Composite Index has recorded 15.92% [2] Industry Insights - The report highlights the ongoing supply-demand rebalancing in the nickel industry, with expectations that nickel prices have reached a bottom level. The report expresses confidence in the growth of downstream demand due to anticipated economic stimulus measures from the Chinese government and the onset of a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle [4] Company Focus - Companies with nickel operations in Indonesia and cost advantages are recommended for investment. Specific companies to watch include Huayou Cobalt, Greeenme, and Weiming Environmental Protection [4] - Huayou Cobalt is noted for its strategic positioning in nickel and cobalt resources in Indonesia, with multiple projects and partnerships aimed at securing nickel supply [4]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for the humanoid robot industry, highlighting potential growth opportunities driven by policy support and technological advancements [4][5][6]. Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is experiencing significant policy backing, particularly from the Xiong'an New Area, which has introduced measures to support the development of various types of robots, including service and industrial robots [4]. - Tesla's recent "We, Robot" event showcased advancements in its humanoid robot, Optimus, which is expected to have a production cost between $20,000 and $30,000, indicating a move towards commercialization [5]. - The establishment of the world's first humanoid robot factory, RoboFab, by Agility Robotics, aims to produce hundreds of robots in its first year, with plans to scale up to 10,000 units annually [5]. Summary by Sections Policy Support - Xiong'an New Area has released documents to accelerate the development of the robot industry, focusing on four key areas: commercial service robots, construction robots, service robots, and intelligent robots. The policies include financial support for key technology projects and innovation applications [4]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is promoting the development of humanoid robots, brain-computer interfaces, and 6G technologies, aiming to enhance smart manufacturing capabilities [4]. Industry Dynamics - Tesla's Optimus robot has made significant progress in design and functionality, with enhanced sensors and AI systems for better task execution [5]. - Agility Robotics has launched RoboFab, which will initially produce hundreds of humanoid robots, expanding to 10,000 units per year [5]. - UBTECH has introduced the Walker S1, a new generation of industrial humanoid robots, which is already being tested in BYD's factories for logistics tasks [5]. Investment and Financing - Yushu Technology has completed a multi-hundred million RMB Series C financing round, indicating strong investor interest in humanoid and quadruped robots [7]. - Qunche Intelligent has also secured several hundred million RMB in Pre-A financing, aimed at developing embodied intelligence systems [7]. - Star Motion Era has raised nearly 300 million RMB in Pre-A financing to accelerate the development of general-purpose humanoid robots [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on specific stocks within the humanoid robot sector, including Sanhua Intelligent Control, Keli Sensor, and UBTECH, among others, as potential investment opportunities [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company is making significant progress in its core pipeline, particularly with the EGFR*HER3 dual antibody ADC BL-B01D1, which has received breakthrough therapy designation for multiple indications in China, indicating strong official support and potential acceleration in clinical development [3] - The company has also received FDA approval to initiate Phase I clinical trials for its CD33 ADC BL-M11D1, suggesting potential opportunities in its other research pipelines [3] - Earnings forecasts indicate a projected net profit of 4.089 billion yuan in 2024, with corresponding EPS of 10.20 yuan, reflecting a significant recovery from previous losses [3] Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The company maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating based on expected stock performance relative to the benchmark index [1] Clinical Development Progress - BL-B01D1 has received breakthrough therapy designation for four indications, with ongoing clinical trials in both China and globally, enhancing its potential for frontline treatment in various cancers [3][5] - The FDA has approved the initiation of Phase I clinical trials for BL-M11D1, expanding the company's clinical portfolio [3][7] Financial Forecasts - Projected revenues for 2024 are expected to reach 6.213 billion yuan, with a significant year-on-year growth of 1005.8% [4] - The company anticipates a net profit of 4.089 billion yuan in 2024, with EPS expected to be 10.20 yuan, indicating a strong recovery trajectory [3][8]