Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Recommended" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is experiencing a significant recovery in demand, with steel companies' profit margins rebounding to over 70% [1][3] - The recovery in demand, coupled with favorable policies, is expected to boost the steel market, leading to continued growth in steel supply in the short term [1][3] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Data Changes in the Steel Industry - Daily molten iron production increased by 2.22% week-on-week to 2.33 million tons, marking the sixth consecutive week of growth [1][8] - The average operating rate of blast furnaces rose to 80.79%, up by 1.22 percentage points [1][8] - Total production of the five major steel products reached 8.64 million tons, with a slight increase of 1.2% [1][8] 2. Weekly Data Trends in the Steel Industry - The apparent consumption of the five major steel products totaled 8.93 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 10.7% [1][9] - Rebar consumption surged by over 30%, indicating strong demand recovery [1][9] 3. Industry News and Company Dynamics - The National Development and Reform Commission announced plans to expedite the issuance of approximately 290 billion yuan in local government special bonds by the end of October [20] - Steel companies are actively managing inventory levels, with total steel inventory decreasing by 2.2% week-on-week to 13.1 million tons [2][9] - The average profit margin for steel companies has risen to 71.43%, reflecting improved profitability across the sector [3][9]

2024 年 10 月 13 日 证券研究报告 | 策略周报 财政部传递"渐进式"加码信号， 夯实中长期慢牛基础 策略周报 分析师：郝一凡 分析师登记编码：S0890524080002 电话：021-20321080 邮箱：haoyifan@cnhbstock.com 投资要点 10 月 12 日国新办新闻发布会，财政部部长蓝佛安介绍"加大财政政策逆周期调 节力度、推动经济高质量发展"有关情况。释放了五大信号：1）拟一次性增加较 大规模债务限额；2）发行特别国债支持国有大型商业银行补充核心一级资本；3） 叠加运用地方政府专项债券、专项资金、税收政策等工具，支持推动房地产市场止 跌回稳；4）加大对重点群体的支持保障力度；5）中央财政还有较大的举债空间和 赤字提升空间。 总体来看，财政部虽未公布具体财政刺激细节及具体规模，但财政发力的方向和 态度较为明确，释放了"渐进式"加码的积极信号，我们总结出以下几点特征： 1、财政发力方向明确，数万亿增量政策可期，但仍要"渐进式"加码；2、先解决 化债及地产等"包袱"，才能"轻装上阵"；3、兼顾市场情绪——提振中长期信 心，避免短期过热。 对市场影响方面，我们认为短期股债以 ...

2024 年 10 月 10 日 证券研究报告 | 产业月报 供给、消费端氢价下降趋势不减，各地涉氢政策持续推出 氢能月度报告 分析师：张锦 分析师登记编码：S0890521080001 电话：021-20321304 8 月广东省高纯氢价格持续回落，可再生能源制取规模与上月持平：8 月上 海/北京/广东/河南/河北高纯氢（≥4N）市场主流价格为 2.7/2.3/2/2.1/2.2 元 /Nm3，其中广东市场环比上月下跌 1.48%。目前广东地区用氢成本优势突出， 受益用氢成本下降的下游环节如炼化、合成甲醇、燃料电池等环节有望在广东 率先受益。根据中国氢能联盟，8 月中国氢价指数生产侧指数同比下跌至 28.8 元/千克。可再生能源制氢方面，8 月全国共有 78 个可再生制氢能源项目，合 计可再生能源制氢规模达 969.7MW。从地区来看已覆盖 25 个省（直辖市，自 治区），涉及 70 家企业。技术路线以碱性电解水制氢（AE）为主，项目规模达 到 841.4 兆瓦，占比 86.8%；电力来源主要为光伏，项目规模达到 712.8 兆瓦， 占比 73.5%；应用方向以交通为主，项目规模达到 331.8 兆瓦，占比 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [3] Core Viewpoints - The hydrogen energy market is expected to see a dual increase in supply and demand across all segments due to the continuous introduction of hydrogen-related policies and active investment financing events [3][17] - The decline in hydrogen prices on both supply and consumption sides is ongoing, with significant cost advantages in regions like Guangdong benefiting downstream sectors such as refining and fuel cells [1][3] - The establishment of hydrogen refueling stations and the production of fuel cell vehicles have seen fluctuations, with a notable decrease in production and sales in August [1][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Hydrogen Monthly Data Changes - In August, the mainstream prices for high-purity hydrogen (≥4N) in major markets were as follows: Shanghai 2.7 CNY/Nm3, Beijing 2.3 CNY/Nm3, Guangdong 2.0 CNY/Nm3, Henan 2.1 CNY/Nm3, and Hebei 2.2 CNY/Nm3, with Guangdong experiencing a month-on-month decline of 1.48% [1][7] - The hydrogen price index for production in China fell to 28.8 CNY/kg year-on-year [1] - There are currently 78 renewable hydrogen production projects in China, with a total capacity of 969.7 MW, primarily using alkaline electrolysis [1][7] Hydrogen Policy Summary - Chengdu plans to promote 500 hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicles in 2024 [9] - Dalian has released a hydrogen industry development plan for 2024-2035, focusing on public transport applications [10] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has included several hydrogen-related technologies in its 2024 major equipment promotion directory [11] Hydrogen Investment and Financing Events - Guofu Hydrogen Energy plans to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to expand its influence in the hydrogen energy sector [17] - Mufan Power has completed a multi-hundred million Pre-B round financing to enhance its hydrogen gas turbine manufacturing capabilities [18]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Recommended (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The overall industry outlook remains positive, with a focus on the upward trend in upstream raw material prices, monthly sales, and the implementation of industry regulations [2][3] - The domestic electric vehicle market is supported by favorable policies, leading to a significant increase in new energy vehicle sales and production [54][55] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the price trends of upstream materials and the performance of leading companies in the sector [2][3] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Weekly Data Tracking 1.1 Upstream Materials - Industrial-grade lithium carbonate averaged 72,500 CNY/ton, up 1.4% from last week; battery-grade lithium carbonate averaged 75,500 CNY/ton, up 1.34% [8][9] - The price of ternary material 523 single crystal power market is 110,000 CNY/ton, up 0.05 million CNY/ton; high nickel 811 multi-crystal power material price is 146,000 CNY/ton, down 0.3 million CNY/ton [21] - The negative electrode material market remains stable with a reference price of 33,000 CNY/ton [27] - Electrolyte prices are stable, with phosphate iron lithium electrolyte averaging 18,300 CNY/ton [35] 1.2 Midstream Materials - Ternary material production in August was 60,707 tons, with actual consumption of 57,728.41 tons, up 15.38% month-on-month [26] - The negative electrode material market price remains stable at 32,378 CNY/ton [27] - Electrolyte production for the week was 29,670 tons, up 6.08% from the previous week [38] 1.3 Downstream Battery Cells - The average price of square power cells (ternary) is 0.46 CNY/Wh, while phosphate iron lithium cells are 0.37 CNY/Wh, both stable from last week [49] - Cumulative battery production from January to August reached 623.1 GWh, with a year-on-year growth of 36.3% [51] 2. Recent News Events - The Chinese government has initiated an anti-discrimination investigation regarding Canada's restrictions on electric vehicles [54] - Sichuan province has introduced a subsidy of up to 17,000 CNY for trading in old cars for new energy vehicles [54]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the banking wealth management industry Core Insights - The stock market has shown strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 21.91% and the Wind All A Index rising by 26.30% during the week ending September 30, 2024, leading to concerns about potential negative feedback effects on wealth management products due to stock market capital absorption and bond market adjustments [1][8] - The wealth management product scale decreased by 962.8 billion to 28.91 trillion yuan, which is consistent with seasonal adjustments observed in the past three years [1][8] - Post-holiday, there was a noticeable redemption of wealth management products, with a redemption ratio around 2%, which is lower than the 5% observed in the previous year, indicating no immediate liquidity risks [1][8] Summary by Sections 1. Stock Market Impact on Wealth Management - The stock market's strong performance has raised concerns about potential negative feedback effects on wealth management products due to capital absorption from the stock market and adjustments in the bond market [1][8] - The wealth management scale saw a decrease of 962.8 billion yuan, aligning with historical seasonal trends [1][8] 2. Cash Management Product Yields - As of October 6, 2024, the annualized yield for cash management products was 1.71%, a decrease of 7 basis points from the previous week, while money market funds yielded 1.54%, down 10 basis points [9] 3. Performance Review of Wealth Management Products - The annualized yield for daily open fixed-income non-cash wealth management products was 2.25%, down 30 basis points from the previous week [10] - The annualized yield for closed 6-12 month fixed-income products was 3.43%, down 16 basis points, while the yield for closed 1-3 year fixed-income products increased by 57 basis points to 4.07% [10] 4. Redemption and Compliance Rates - During the week of September 23-29, 2024, the scale of maturing wealth management products was 455.1 billion yuan, with an average compliance rate of 55% [13] - Closed products showed a higher compliance rate of 79%, outperforming the overall compliance rate [13]

Group 1: Key Insights from the Report - The report highlights that the US employment data exceeded expectations, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 254,000, leading to a reduction in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations from 50 basis points to 25 basis points [4] - The report notes that the Hong Kong stock market has outperformed globally, with a significant increase of 7.59% from October 1 to 4, 2024, driven by improved market sentiment and geopolitical factors [4][5] - The report indicates that the real estate policies in China have been further optimized, resulting in a notable improvement in the real estate market, with the sales area of commercial housing in 30 major cities showing a reduced year-on-year decline of 9% in early October, compared to a 34% decline in September [5][6] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for September was reported at 49.8, reflecting a marginal increase of 0.7 from August, while the services PMI decreased to 49.9, down by 0.3 from the previous month [6] - The report emphasizes that the overall market sentiment has improved due to clear signals of policy support since late September, which is expected to continue driving the A-share market upward post-holiday [8] - The report anticipates that the upcoming financial data releases in China, including CPI and PPI, will be crucial for assessing the economic outlook and potential policy adjustments [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Recommended" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The average daily pig iron output has increased to 2.28 million tons, with steel prices showing strong performance due to policy support [1][3] - The recovery of steel enterprise profits is accelerating the pace of production resumption, particularly in rebar production [1][3] - Recent macro policies related to real estate and consumption are expected to boost demand, although current pig iron output remains below levels seen in the same period in 2022 and 2023 [1][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Supply - The average daily pig iron output for the week (September 28 - October 4) reached 2.28 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 31,600 tons, or 1.41% [1][8] - The operating rate of blast furnaces rose to 79.57%, up 1.34 percentage points from the previous week [1][8] - Total production of the five major steel products was 8.54 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 3.7% [1][8] Inventory - Total steel inventory (social + factory) reached 13.39 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 3.7% [2][8] - Factory inventory increased by 6.3% to 4.04 million tons, while social inventory rose by 2.5% to 9.35 million tons [2][8] Consumption - Apparent consumption of steel products decreased by 11.71% week-on-week to 8.06 million tons [1][8] - Rebar apparent consumption fell by 26.6% to 1.88 million tons, while wire rod consumption decreased by 17.76% to 820,100 tons [1][8] Price and Profitability - Steel prices showed strong upward trends, with rebar prices increasing by 13.95% to 3,923.52 yuan/ton [3][8] - The profitability of steel enterprises improved significantly, with the profit margin for 247 steel companies rising by 19.05 percentage points to 37.66% [3][8] - Rebar profits turned positive, with a profit of 212.65 yuan/ton, a significant recovery from previous losses [3][8]

Group 1: Policy Initiatives - The Central Political Bureau meeting on September 26, 2024, signaled a shift in economic policy focus, emphasizing the need to "face difficulties" and implement new policies to boost market confidence[6] - A series of supporting measures from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) aim to enhance the capital market and facilitate the entry of long-term funds[9] - The "Guiding Opinions on Promoting Long-term Funds to Enter the Market" was jointly issued by the Central Financial Office and CSRC, indicating a strong commitment to market support[9] Group 2: Market and Financial Products - The total scale of public funds reached CNY 30.9 trillion by the end of August 2024, with equity funds accounting for approximately 21.34% of this total, highlighting room for growth in equity fund investments[10] - The establishment of a fast-track approval process for ETF index funds is expected to attract more incremental capital into the market, with the total ETF scale surpassing CNY 3 trillion, a 47.16% increase from the end of 2023[15] - The average management fee for mixed funds has decreased from 1.28% at the beginning of 2023 to 1.07% by September 2024, reflecting ongoing fee reforms aimed at reducing investor costs[22] Group 3: Mergers and Acquisitions - The CSRC has introduced six key measures to streamline the entire M&A process, focusing on asset selection, payment methods, review efficiency, and intermediary services[9] - The new policies encourage listed companies to enhance industrial integration and improve regulatory inclusiveness, thereby increasing transaction efficiency in the M&A market[9] Group 4: Market Value Management - The new guidelines on market value management emphasize the coordinated use of tools such as share buybacks, dividends, and mergers to enhance the investment value of listed companies[9] - Companies are encouraged to adopt a comprehensive approach to market value management, with specific requirements for major index constituents and long-term underperforming stocks[9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the magnesium industry is "Recommended" [2] Core Viewpoints - The magnesium industry is experiencing a recovery in demand, with expectations for a boost in October due to the traditional peak season [1][2] - Raw material costs are declining, and the price of magnesium ingots is stabilizing, indicating a potential for market recovery [1] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring production and operational conditions in magnesium and magnesium alloy segments, particularly those with low-carbon smelting technology and high-end magnesium alloy R&D advantages [1] Summary by Sections Raw Material Supply and Demand - In August, the operating rate of raw coal in China was 55.97%, up 19.28% month-on-month, with production costs at 1,323.64 CNY/ton, down 2.41% [1][5] - The average price of magnesium ingots in August was 19,393.18 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.47% from the previous month [5] - The production of primary magnesium in China increased to 76,355 tons in August, up 4.55% month-on-month [5] Downstream Demand - The production of passenger cars in August reached 2,221,461 units, an increase of 9.43% month-on-month, while the production of new energy vehicles rose by 10.92% to 1,091,869 units [5] - The production of mobile phones and computers also saw increases of 5.14% and 11.33%, respectively, indicating a recovery in the electronics sector [5] Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the demand for magnesium will continue to recover as the traditional peak season approaches in October, with downstream demand expected to further boost the market [1][2]