Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the banking wealth management industry Core Insights - The adjustment in deposit rates by major state-owned banks is the fifth reduction in 2023, with significant cuts in long-term deposit rates, particularly a cumulative reduction of 110 basis points for 3-year and 5-year deposits [5][6] - The recent decline in deposit rates is part of a broader strategy to stabilize net interest margins for commercial banks, following a reduction in the central bank's policy rates [5][6] - The performance of wealth management products is stabilizing, with an increase in the average compliance rate of maturing products to 58%, up 13 percentage points from the previous week [11] Summary by Sections 1. Deposit Rate Adjustment - On October 18, major state-owned banks announced a reduction in RMB deposit rates, affecting both demand and time deposits, with the one-year deposit rate adjusted to 1.10% [5][6] - Following the state-owned banks, several joint-stock banks also lowered their deposit rates, aligning closely with the reductions made by state-owned banks [5][6] 2. Cash Management Product Yield - As of October 20, 2024, the annualized yield for cash management products over the past 7 days was 1.73%, a decrease of 2 basis points from the previous week [8] - The yield for money market funds remained stable at 1.54%, resulting in a narrowing yield gap of 19 basis points between cash management products and money market funds [8] 3. Wealth Management Product Performance Review - The annualized yield for daily open fixed-income non-cash wealth management products over the past month was 2.41%, an increase of 24 basis points from the previous week [10] - The annualized yield for closed 6-12 month fixed-income wealth management products was 3.39%, up 14 basis points, while the yield for closed 1-3 year fixed-income products was 3.76%, an increase of 7 basis points [10] 4. Maturity and Compliance Status - From October 14 to October 20, the scale of maturing products from wealth management companies was 260.1 billion, with an average compliance rate of 58% [11] - Closed-end products showed a higher average compliance rate of 79%, outperforming the overall compliance rate [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the hydrogen energy industry is "Recommended (Maintain)" [2] Core Viewpoints - The introduction of hydrogen energy policies in Hubei Province and Handan City is expected to radiate to surrounding areas, driving the development of the hydrogen energy industry in the central and eastern regions of China [2][14] - The "Hubei Province Action Plan for Accelerating the Development of the Hydrogen Energy Industry (2024-2027)" aims to establish Hubei as a significant hydrogen energy hub by 2030, with a total industrial output value of 100 billion yuan, including 30 billion yuan from hydrogen production [7][8] - Handan City plans to construct a hydrogen energy industry layout characterized by "one core, two wings, two corridors, and multiple points," focusing on enhancing innovation capabilities and expanding application scenarios [4][5] Summary by Sections Handan City Hydrogen Energy Development Plan - Handan City aims to promote 300 fuel cell vehicles and build 5 hydrogen refueling stations by 2024, with plans to increase to 2,000 fuel cell vehicles and 33 hydrogen stations by 2030, achieving an annual green hydrogen production capacity of 600 tons [4][5][7] Hubei Province Hydrogen Energy Action Plan - The action plan targets the establishment of a hydrogen energy industrial layout centered around Wuhan by 2027, with a total industrial output value of 100 billion yuan, including 30 billion yuan from hydrogen production and 40 billion yuan from hydrogen energy equipment and components [8][9] Central Region Hydrogen Energy Development - The central region's hydrogen energy industry is expected to accelerate due to the gradual rollout of policies and completion of supporting infrastructure, with Handan City likely to collaborate with the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and Inner Mongolia to develop the hydrogen energy industry [10][12][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The overall industry outlook remains positive, with a focus on monitoring upstream raw material price trends, monthly sales, and the implementation of industry regulations. The long-term prospects for the domestic and international new energy vehicle industry are deemed certain, making the sector worthy of attention. It is expected that individual stock performance will show differentiation, suggesting a focus on leading companies in specific segments [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data - The average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate is 70,500 CNY/ton, down 4.73% from the previous week. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 73,500 CNY/ton, down 4.55% [2][62]. - The price of 523 single crystal power materials is 109,500 CNY/ton, down 0.08 CNY/ton from last week. The price of 622 multi-crystal materials is 109,000 CNY/ton, down 0.03 CNY/ton. The price of high-nickel 811 multi-crystal power materials is 145,000 CNY/ton, down 0.05 CNY/ton [2][74]. 2. Downstream Demand - In the first nine months of 2024, the cumulative sales of power and other batteries in China reached 685.7 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 42.5%. Power battery sales accounted for 525.3 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 26.1% [3][106]. - In September 2024, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.307 million and 1.287 million units, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 48.8% and 42.3%, increasing market share to 45.8% [3][107]. 3. Market Dynamics - The commercial vehicle market is under pressure, with September 2024 wholesale sales down 23.49% year-on-year, while cumulative sales from January to September decreased by 1.56% [3][108]. - The report highlights that the overall market for commercial vehicles continues to face downward pressure, particularly in the truck segment, which saw a 25.73% year-on-year decline in September [3][108]. 4. Price Trends - The report notes that the prices of various materials, including lithium carbonate and battery materials, are experiencing downward pressure due to market dynamics and demand fluctuations [2][74][90]. - The average price of electrolyte remains stable, with phosphoric acid lithium electrolyte at 18,600 CNY/ton and ternary/conventional power electrolyte at 25,300 CNY/ton [90]. 5. Production and Inventory - The production of lithium carbonate for the week of October 12-18, 2024, was approximately 13,500 tons, showing a slight decrease of 0.36% from the previous week [65]. - The inventory of lithium hydroxide is reported at 16,300 tons, down 1.21% from the previous week, indicating a stable supply situation [73]. 6. Battery Cell Market - The average price of square power cells (ternary) is stable at 0.46 CNY/Wh, while the price for square power cells (lithium iron phosphate) is 0.37 CNY/Wh [105]. - The total production of power and other batteries in September 2024 was 111.3 GWh, with a year-on-year increase of 43.3% [106]. 7. Company Performance - CATL reported a third-quarter revenue of 92.278 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 12.48%, while net profit increased by 25.97% [110].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore industry is "Recommended" [3] Core Viewpoints - The average daily pig iron production continues to increase, reaching 2.34 million tons per day, but the growth rate has slowed down [3][4] - The supply pressure for imported iron ore has eased, with a year-on-year increase of 8% in port arrivals, indicating a relatively loose overall supply [4] - Steel mills are resuming production, supported by improved profitability, but the growth in production is expected to be limited in the short term due to rising coke prices [4] Supply Summary - During the week of October 12-18, the total shipment of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 22.46 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.63% from the previous week [6] - The shipment volumes to China from major miners were as follows: Rio Tinto at 4.95 million tons (+9.96%), BHP at 4.26 million tons (-8.88%), Vale at 5.66 million tons (-13.65%), and FMG at 3.35 million tons (-5.56%) [6][7] - The total port inventory of imported iron ore reached 153 million tons, an increase of 1.27% week-on-week and 37.4% year-on-year, indicating high inventory levels [7] Demand Summary - The average daily consumption of iron ore by steel enterprises was 2.89 million tons, with a slight increase of 0.27% [8] - The capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces was 87.99%, up by 0.48 percentage points, while the operating rate was 81.68%, an increase of 0.89 percentage points [8] - The profitability of steel enterprises improved to 74.46%, reflecting a recovery in operational efficiency [8] Price and Profitability Summary - The average price index for iron ore (62% Fe: CFR: Qingdao Port) was $103.61 per ton, a decrease of $2.17 per ton or 2.05% week-on-week [8] - The rising costs of coke have pressured steel mill profits, contributing to a slowdown in production resumption [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Recommended" [3] Core Viewpoints - The supply side of the steel industry continues to expand, with a notable increase in consumption by 2.03% week-on-week [2][4] - Macro policies are expected to boost steel demand, leading to a positive outlook for the market [4][19] - The overall inventory of steel continues to decrease, with a significant drop in social inventory by 4.2% [2][4] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Data Changes in the Steel Industry - The average daily pig iron output increased to 2.3436 million tons, up 0.55% week-on-week [9] - The operating rate of blast furnaces rose to 81.68%, an increase of 0.89 percentage points [9] - Total production of the five major steel products reached 8.7342 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.11% [9] 2. Weekly Data Trends Summary - Apparent consumption of the five major steel products totaled 9.1097 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.03% [2][10] - Long products showed a significant increase in consumption, while flat products experienced a slight decline [2][10] - The comprehensive steel price index was recorded at 102.1 points, with a slight decrease of 1.79 points [2][10] 3. Industry News and Company Dynamics - Recent macro policies, including a package of measures from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, are expected to stimulate the steel market [19] - The steel industry is experiencing a recovery in profitability, with the profit margin for steel companies remaining above 70% [4][19] - The report highlights specific company activities, such as Shougang's export of high-strength marine steel to Europe [19]

2024 年 10 月 20 日 证券研究报告 | 策略周报 震荡整固之后，双创再度大幅拉升 策略周报 分析师：郝一凡 分析师登记编码：S0890524080002 电话：021-20321080 邮箱：haoyifan@cnhbstock.com 投资要点 基本面回顾与资产配置展望：美国大选特朗普获胜概率上升，美元近期走势偏 强，海外不确定性扰动仍然偏高；国内经济增长仍然偏弱，但 9 月已较 7-8 月有 所改善，政策仍处于发力阶段，周五习近平总书记指出"推进中国式现代化，科 技要打头阵"，提振市场对科技创新的信心。 A 股市场回顾与展望：本周（10 月 14 日-10 月 18 日）A 股市场成交活跃度回 落，两市日均成交额 16680 亿元，较前一周减少 8815 亿元，市场活跃度回落但仍 然较高。在前一周市场调整后，本周市场震荡整固，A 股市场情回落但仍处于活跃 状态。周五总书记关于科技的讲话提振市场信心，成长科技板块大幅反弹带动大盘 回升。预计短期内市场仍处于震荡整固阶段，科技成长板块预计相对占优，但波动 相对偏高，需与投资者风险偏好相匹配。 相关研究报告 1、《财政部传递"渐进式"加码信号， 夯实 ...

Market Overview - In September, the equity market experienced a rapid rebound after a period of decline, with the A-share market seeing significant increases in both confidence and trading volume due to unexpected policy measures from the government [14][17] - The major equity fund indices all recorded gains exceeding 10%, with the Wind Active Stock Fund and Wind Stock Fund Total Index achieving positive returns of 20.28% and 23.40% respectively in September 2024 [14][15] Equity Market Analysis - The equity market's risk appetite has notably increased due to policy stimuli, shifting the market style towards small-cap growth stocks, with active trading and a diverse range of market hotspots [17][18] - The proportion of rising constituent stocks has reached historical highs, indicating a strong index performance that may suppress excess returns from quantitative strategies [18][21] - For conservative investors, the volatility of hedging strategies is expected to decrease, leading to a stabilization of returns for neutral strategies, while aggressive investors may find index-enhanced products and smart beta strategies suitable for allocation [18][19] Commodity Market Analysis - The commodity market remains active, with varying efficiency across sectors, and a lack of established upward trends, suggesting that medium to long-term trend strategies may need to wait [17][20] - Short-term CTA strategies are expected to profit from market volatility, and the current liquidity in the commodity market supports arbitrage strategies [17][20] - In September, gold prices showed a general upward trend, supported by geopolitical tensions and ongoing demand for safe-haven assets, while the South China Commodity Index rose by 4.6% [14][16] Public Fund Performance Review - In September, the CSI 300 index enhanced products recorded a monthly increase of 20.97%, with strict constraint type products showing a monthly excess return of -1.75% [39] - The CSI 500 index enhanced products had a monthly increase of 23.80%, with strict constraint type products showing a monthly excess return of -2.38% [42] - The CSI 1000 index enhanced products also saw a monthly increase of 23.32%, with strict constraint type products showing a monthly excess return of -1.30% [45]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the banking wealth management industry Core Insights - The banking wealth management market is experiencing a mixed performance in equity and bond markets, with a notable recovery in equity-based wealth management products [1] - The People's Bank of China has implemented significant monetary policy changes, including a comprehensive reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates, which positively impacted market sentiment and stock performance [6] - The issuance of non-principal guaranteed wealth management products decreased by 7.9% year-on-year but increased by 4.3% month-on-month in September 2024 [9][11] Summary by Sections Regulatory Policies and Asset Management Market News - The central bank announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term funds [6] - The average reduction in existing mortgage rates is expected to be around 0.5 percentage points, benefiting approximately 50 million households [6] Wealth Management Market Monthly Overview - In September 2024, a total of 2,378 non-principal guaranteed wealth management products were issued, with a breakdown of 2,289 fixed income products, 43 mixed products, and 10 equity products [9][11] - The average performance benchmark for various product types in September 2024 was as follows: fixed income at 2.88%, mixed at 2.75%, and equity at 4.03% [12] Product Tracking and Performance - The number of wealth management products that broke net value reached 3,421, accounting for 5.37% of the total market, indicating a significant increase from the previous month [2] - The average annualized return for equity-based wealth management products has turned positive, reaching 8.30% as of October 13, 2024 [2] Wealth Management Subsidiary Products - In September 2024, wealth management subsidiaries issued 1,475 products, predominantly fixed income (1,438), with only 3 equity products [13] - The performance benchmarks for fixed income products varied by duration, with 3-month products averaging 2.39% and those over 3 years averaging 3.36% [14]

Investment Rating - Investment rating for the iron ore industry is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - The iron ore industry is experiencing a significant increase in port arrivals, with a growth rate exceeding 50% [1] - Daily average pig iron production has rebounded to over 230 million tons per day, indicating a recovery in steel production [1][3] - The supply of iron ore is increasing, but the demand growth is not keeping pace, leading to high port inventories [4] Supply Summary - Import iron ore supply from Australia and Brazil has shown a combined increase of 3.07%, with total shipments reaching 22.606 million tons [1][6] - The total iron ore arrival at Chinese ports reached 28.704 million tons, a 52.23% increase compared to the previous week [1][6] - Port inventories remain high, with a total of 151.05 million tons across 45 ports, a year-on-year increase of 36.8% [5][6] Demand Summary - Daily average iron ore consumption by steel mills is 2.8815 million tons, reflecting a 1.86% increase [7] - Daily average pig iron production has increased to 2.3308 million tons, marking a 2.22% rise and the sixth consecutive week of growth [3][7] - The capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces is at 87.51%, up by 1.9 percentage points [7] Price and Profitability Summary - The average iron ore price index (62% Fe: CFR: Qingdao Port) is $105.78 per ton, down by $2.32 or 2.15% from the previous week [7] - The profitability rate of steel companies has risen sharply to 71.43%, indicating improved operational efficiency [7]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Recommended (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The automotive market is experiencing continuous policy support, which is significantly contributing to the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle sector. In the first eight months of 2024, China's power battery cumulative installation reached 292.1 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 33.2% [2][50] - The market share of new energy vehicles in China reached 37.5% in the first eight months of 2024, with production and sales of 700.3 million and 703.3 million units, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28.9% and 30.9% [2][48] - Chinese companies dominate the global power battery market, with six companies, including CATL and BYD, accounting for 65.1% of the total installed capacity [2][50] Summary by Sections 1. Upstream Materials - Industrial-grade lithium carbonate prices averaged 74,000 yuan/ton, up 2.1% from the previous week, while battery-grade lithium carbonate averaged 77,000 yuan/ton, also up 2.0% [7][8] - The price of lithium hydroxide continues to decline, with battery-grade prices averaging 68,500 yuan/ton [13][16] - The market for negative electrode materials remains stable, with prices holding steady at 33,000 yuan/ton [26][29] 2. Midstream Materials - The price of ternary materials (523 single crystal) is 110,300 yuan/ton, while the price for high-nickel 811 multi-crystal materials is 145,500 yuan/ton, which has decreased slightly [20][21] - The production of ternary materials is stable, with a slight increase in supply due to higher production schedules from some battery manufacturers [21][22] 3. Downstream Cells - The average price of square power cells (ternary) is 0.46 yuan/Wh, while for lithium iron phosphate cells, it is 0.37 yuan/Wh, both remaining stable [46] - In August 2024, the total production of power and other batteries reached 101.3 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 36.8% [47] - Cumulative sales of power batteries reached 448.8 GWh in the first eight months of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.5% [47]