分析师登记编码：S0890522110001 电话：021-20321297 邮箱：chengbingzhe@cnhbstock.com 分析师：薛婧怡 2025 年 08 月 26 日 证券研究报告 | 财富生态周报 ETF 及指数产品网格策略周报 2025/8/26 分析师：卫以诺 分析师登记编码：S0890518120001 电话：021-20321014 邮箱：weiyinuo@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890525070001 电话：021-20321092 邮箱：xuejingyi@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 2025/8/19》2025-08-19 2、《ETF 及指数产品网格策略周报— 2025/8/12》2025-08-12 3、《ETF 及指数产品网格策略周报— 2025/8/5》2025-08-05 4、《ETF 及指数产品网格策略周报— 2025/7/29》2025-07-29 5、《ETF 及指数产品网格策略周报— 2025/7/22》2025-07-22 投资要点 分析师：程秉哲 ◆网格交易策略概述：简单来说，"网格交易"本质上是一种 ...

Group 1 - The report outlines a grid trading strategy that focuses on capitalizing on price fluctuations rather than predicting market trends, making it suitable for volatile markets [3][13] - Characteristics of suitable grid trading targets include being exchange-traded, having stable long-term trends, low transaction costs, good liquidity, and high volatility, with equity ETFs being particularly appropriate [3][13] - The report highlights specific ETFs for grid trading, including the China Concept Internet ETF, which aims to reduce vicious competition costs and promote technological innovation in the internet sector [4][14] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Technology ETF benefits from improved liquidity in the Hong Kong market and the return of quality listed companies, making it a cost-effective investment tool in a low-interest-rate environment [4][17] - The Software ETF is positioned to leverage opportunities in AI development, with significant policy support encouraging the integration of AI technologies across various sectors [6][20] - The Chip ETF reflects a short-term easing of overseas pressures while emphasizing the long-term trend of domestic substitution in the semiconductor industry, supported by substantial investments in domestic chip manufacturing [7][21]

Group 1: Grid Trading Strategy Overview - The essence of "grid trading" is a high buy low sell trading strategy, which does not predict market trends but utilizes natural price fluctuations within a certain range to generate profits, suitable for frequently fluctuating markets [3][12] - Characteristics of suitable grid trading targets include: selecting on-market targets, stable long-term trends, low transaction costs, good liquidity, and high volatility, with equity ETFs being relatively suitable for grid trading [3][12] Group 2: ETF Grid Strategy Target Analysis - The Hang Seng Technology ETF (513010.SH) benefits from improved liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market and the return of quality listed companies, making it a cost-effective investment tool in a low-interest-rate environment. In the first half of 2025, net inflows from southbound funds into Hong Kong stocks reached HKD 731.2 billion, equivalent to 91% of last year's total net purchases [3][13] - The Robotics ETF (562500.SH) is positioned in a strategic core area of China's technological innovation and high-end manufacturing, supported by government policies aimed at accelerating technological autonomy and industrial cluster breakthroughs [4][16] - The Chip ETF (159995.SZ) sees a temporary easing of overseas suppression factors, while "domestic substitution" remains the long-term development theme, with significant investments planned in critical areas of the semiconductor industry [5][17] - The Infrastructure ETF (516950.SH) is expected to benefit from fiscal expansion and the implementation of major projects, with the government planning to issue special bonds totaling CNY 1.3 trillion and project lists supporting 1,459 projects in key areas [6][18]

Group 1 - The report outlines a grid trading strategy, which is essentially a high buy low sell trading approach that capitalizes on price fluctuations without predicting market trends, making it suitable for volatile markets [4][14] - Characteristics of suitable grid trading targets include selecting on-market assets, stable long-term trends, low transaction costs, good liquidity, and high volatility, with equity ETFs being particularly appropriate for this strategy [4][14] - The report highlights key ETFs for grid trading, including the New Economy ETF, which benefits from policy incentives and industrial upgrades, capturing new economic growth drivers in China [4][15] Group 2 - The report discusses the Germany ETF, which tracks the DAX index and benefits from Germany's economic stimulus policies, focusing on high-end manufacturing and technology leaders [5][18] - The Chip ETF is noted for its short-term easing of overseas pressures and long-term focus on domestic substitution, with significant investments in the semiconductor industry to enhance self-sufficiency [6][19] - The Robot ETF is emphasized as a strategic core area for technological innovation and high-end manufacturing in China, supported by government policies aimed at advancing intelligent manufacturing [8][24]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the grid trading strategy as a method to profit from price fluctuations without predicting market trends, making it suitable for volatile markets [4][13] - The report identifies key characteristics for suitable grid trading targets, including low trading costs, good liquidity, and significant volatility, suggesting that equity ETFs are appropriate for this strategy [4][13] Group 2 - The report highlights specific ETFs for grid trading, starting with the Asia-Pacific Selected ETF (159687.SZ), which tracks the FTSE Russell Asia Low Carbon Selected Index and covers major companies in sectors like semiconductors and internet [4][14] - The New Economy ETF (159822.SZ) is noted for capturing new growth drivers in China's economy, holding leading companies across various high-growth sectors such as AI and biotechnology [5][18] - The Germany ETF (159561.SZ) tracks the DAX index, benefiting from Germany's economic stimulus policies, with a focus on high-end manufacturing and technology sectors [6][20] - The Sci-Tech Chip ETF (588200.SH) is highlighted for its potential driven by domestic substitution and AI computing demand, with significant growth expected in AI-related device shipments [7][21]

Group 1 - The report outlines a grid trading strategy, which is essentially a high buy low sell trading approach that capitalizes on price fluctuations without predicting market trends, making it suitable for volatile markets [3][13] - Characteristics of suitable grid trading targets include being exchange-traded, having stable long-term trends, low transaction costs, good liquidity, and high volatility, with equity ETFs being identified as appropriate candidates [3][13] Group 2 - The report highlights key ETFs for grid trading strategies, including the Medical ETF (512170.SH), which benefits from the aging global population and supportive policies for innovative drug development in China [3][14] - The Artificial Intelligence ETF (159819.SZ) is noted for its growth potential due to government initiatives promoting AI technology across various sectors, with 433 domestic large models registered as of June 30, 2025 [4][17] - The Robotics ETF (159530.SZ) is positioned as a strategic core area for China's technological innovation and high-end manufacturing, with significant government support and recent projects indicating a shift towards commercialization [5][19] - The Germany ETF (159561.SZ) tracks the DAX index and is expected to benefit from Germany's fiscal expansion plans, which include borrowing approximately €500 billion for defense and €300 billion for infrastructure, representing about 20% of GDP [7][21]

Group 1: Overview of Grid Trading Strategy - The essence of "grid trading" is a high buy low sell strategy, which is based on price fluctuations rather than predicting market trends, making it suitable for markets with frequent price movements [3][12] - Characteristics of suitable grid trading targets include: selecting on-market targets, stable long-term trends, low transaction costs, good liquidity, and high volatility, with equity ETFs being relatively suitable for grid trading [3][12] Group 2: Focused ETF Grid Strategy Targets - **Asia-Pacific Selected ETF (159687.SZ)**: This ETF tracks the FTSE Russell Asia-Pacific Low Carbon Selected Index, covering major companies in sectors like semiconductors, internet, automotive, and consumer goods across the Asia-Pacific region. In the first half of 2025, Japan's M&A activity surged with a transaction volume of $232 billion, more than doubling year-on-year, enhancing foreign investment enthusiasm [3][13] - **Photovoltaic ETF (515790.SH)**: The "anti-involution" policy is expected to alleviate overcapacity in the photovoltaic industry, leading to a bottom reversal. Recent government initiatives have aimed at addressing low-price competition and promoting high-quality development in the industry [4][16] - **Coal ETF (515220.SH)**: Extreme summer temperatures are driving up rigid demand for coal, with national electricity load reaching a historical high of 1.465 billion kilowatts on July 4, 2025, an increase of approximately 200 million kilowatts from the end of June [5][17] - **Medical ETF (512170.SH)**: Long-term global aging is driving continuous growth in medical demand. In 2025, several policies supporting the innovative drug industry have been introduced, enhancing the structural investment value of innovative drugs [6][21] Group 3: Additional ETF Grid Strategy Targets - A diverse combination of ETFs with low correlation is recommended for grid trading, such as pairing broad-based and sector-specific ETFs or combining A-shares and Hong Kong stocks to enhance capital utilization and risk diversification [24]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the effectiveness of grid trading strategies in volatile markets, allowing investors to profit from price fluctuations without predicting market trends [3][12] - The report identifies suitable characteristics for grid trading targets, including low trading costs, good liquidity, and significant volatility, suggesting that equity ETFs are appropriate for this strategy [3][12] Group 2 - The semiconductor ETF (512480.SH) is highlighted due to the increasing domestic substitution under technical sanctions and the rising demand for computing chips driven by AI applications, with a predicted 20% year-on-year growth in AI PC, tablet, and mobile phone shipments by 2025 [3][13] - The artificial intelligence ETF (159819.SZ) benefits from government policies promoting AI technology across various sectors, with 433 domestic large models registered by June 30, 2025, indicating a significant push towards industrial transformation [4][16] - The robotics ETF (159770.SZ) is supported by national policies aiming to establish a humanoid robot innovation system by 2025, showcasing advancements in technology and commercial viability [5][19] - The medical ETF (512170.SH) is driven by the aging global population and supportive policies for innovative drug development, aiming to enhance the quality and efficiency of clinical trials and drug approvals [6][20]

Core Viewpoint - Public funds demonstrate medium to long-term investment value through professional management, with "Double Ten Funds" representing concentrated long-term performance. However, short-term performance fluctuations challenge the ability of these funds to deliver excess returns during market volatility [1]. Group 1: Fund Performance Analysis - The recent performance of the Caifeng Value Momentum Mixed Fund, managed by Jin Zicai, has faced significant fluctuations over the past month, raising concerns about its long-term performance amidst short-term volatility [1]. - Historical data shows that the Caifeng Value Momentum Mixed Fund has outperformed mainstream market indices in most years over the past decade, indicating strong management capabilities [1][2]. - In 2024, the fund achieved a return of 12.58%, significantly higher than the benchmark indices, showcasing its potential for recovery and growth [2]. Group 2: Investor Behavior and Strategy - Investors who held the Caifeng Value Momentum Mixed Fund for over five years had an 85% profit rate, with an average annualized return of 12%, while those holding for less than one year had only a 35% profit rate, highlighting the importance of long-term investment [3]. - During periods of significant market downturns, investors are advised to assess whether the fund manager's performance issues stem from market conditions or systemic errors, rather than reacting impulsively to short-term fluctuations [4]. - For investors with timing abilities, employing grid trading strategies can help manage high-volatility funds like those managed by Jin Zicai, transforming emotional timing into disciplined operations [4][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rebar futures, the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 3000 - 2900 this week, and it's recommended to focus on the pressure level at 3000. Steel spot customers can consider a step - by - step selling hedging strategy [7][11]. - For iron ore futures, the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 640 - 770. A grid trading strategy can be considered during the sideways consolidation phase [32][36]. 3. Summary by Directory Rebar Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The expected operating range of the rebar futures main contract this week is 3000 - 2900, and attention should be paid to the pressure at 3000. Weekly rebar production is 228000 tons, apparent consumption is 245000 tons, major steel mills' inventory is 1.83 million tons, and social inventory is 6.38 million tons. The futures price is in a downward channel on the daily level with significant capital outflows. Steel spot customers can consider a step - by - step selling hedging strategy [7]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy: Steel spot customers were advised to consider a step - by - step selling hedging strategy [10]. - This week's strategy: Spot customers can consider a step - by - step selling hedging strategy, with a reference operating range of 3000 - 2900 and attention to the 3000 pressure level. Steel production enterprises can consider a step - by - step selling hedging strategy for 80% of their spot volume [11][12]. 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The report mentions "Relevant data situation" multiple times but does not provide specific data details in the given content. It only indicates data sources such as Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [42][47]. Iron Ore Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The iron ore futures main contract is expected to trade in the range of 640 - 770. Last week, global iron ore shipments were 3352000 tons, arrivals at 45 major Chinese ports were 2276000 tons, steel enterprises' inventory was 8.936 million tons, and major domestic port inventory was 13.983 million tons. The daily line of iron ore futures is in a sideways phase, with the main short - selling camp having a slight advantage. A grid trading strategy can be considered during the sideways phase [32]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy: The Great Wall Futures AI intelligent data model showed that the iron ore futures were in a sideways consolidation phase on the daily line [35]. - This week's strategy: During the sideways consolidation phase, a grid trading strategy can be considered, with a reference antenna of 770, a ground line of 640, 22 grids, and a grid spacing of 6 [36]. 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - Similar to the rebar futures section, the report mentions "Relevant data situation" multiple times but lacks specific data details. The data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [42][47].