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证 券 2024 年 04 月 15 日 研 究 黄金短期切换到抗通胀逻辑，上涨空间仍较大 报 告 —有色金属行业周报 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：傅鸿浩 S1050521120004 ▌黄金：黄金短期切换到抗通胀逻辑，上涨空间仍 fuhh@cfsc.com.cn 较大 分析师：杜飞 S1050523070001 本周数据方面，美国 3 月核心 CPI 同比今值为 3.8%，高于预 dufei2@cfsc.com.cn 期 3.7%；3 月 CPI 同比今值为 3.5%，高于预期 3.4%和前值 行业相对表现 3.2%；3 月核心 CPI 环比今值为 0.4%，高于预期 0.3%；3 月 CPI环比今值为 0.4%，高于预期0.3%。 表现 1M 3M 12M 有色金属(申万) 10.2 20.6 -4.4 美国 3 月通胀数据超预期，但是黄金价格仍呈现上涨。我们 沪深300 -2 .6 5.9 -15.1 认为是贵金属交易逻辑切换到了抗通胀属性。从 TIPs 债券隐 市场表现 含的通胀预期来看，4 月以来已经从 2.32%提升到了 2.39%。 虽然近期美债名义利率有所反弹，但是通胀预期的上升压制 (% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][5] Core Views - The company demonstrated impressive performance with significant revenue and profit growth, maintaining its leading position in the market [2][4] - The company’s total operating revenue for 2023 reached 11.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.42%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.04 billion yuan, up 41.6% year-on-year [2][5] - The company is expected to continue enhancing its market share in the energy drink sector while achieving rapid growth in new products, establishing a second growth curve [5] Summary by Sections Performance Highlights - The company reported a total operating revenue of 11.26 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 32.42% and a net profit of 2.04 billion yuan, reflecting a 41.6% increase [2][5] - The gross margin and net margin for 2023 were 43.07% and 18.11%, respectively, showing stable improvement [2][4] - Cash flow from operations increased significantly to 3.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 61.95% [2][4] Product and Market Development - The company’s flagship product, Dongpeng Special Drink, maintained double-digit growth with a sales volume increase of 28.24% [2][4] - New product launches, including electrolyte drinks and sugar-free tea, have shown strong sales performance, contributing to overall revenue growth [3][4] - The company has expanded its distribution channels, with revenue from direct sales channels growing by 71.39% in 2023 [4] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 6.48 yuan, 8.02 yuan, and 9.68 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5][6] - The expected growth rates for main revenue and net profit for 2024 are 26.6% and 27.1%, respectively [6][7]

证 研 告 略 究 —北交所周报 ▌ 北证大盘指数概览 ▌ 北证行业概览 本周北证 A 股全部 248 上市公司中共有 56 家本周上涨，涨幅 达到 10%以上的上市公司共有 9 家，跌幅超过 10%的上市公司 共 有 10 家 。 本 周 涨 幅 前 三 的 上 市 公 司 为 ： 鸿 智 科 技 （ +30.55% ） 、 殷图网联（ +30.46% ） 和 美邦科技 （+20.00%）。鸿智科技：厨房小家电生产商；殷图网联：电 网智能化综合解决方案提供商；美邦科技：绿色制造技术研 发商。 ▌ 风险提示 分析师：黄俊伟 S1050522060002 huangjw@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：华潇 S1050122110013 huaxiao@cfsc.com.cn 1、《指数横盘震荡成交量能趋稳，北 证今年以来仅两个行业获累计正收 益》2024-04-08 2、《指数震荡趋稳成交量能收缩，热 点题材标的顺势上涨》2024-03-31 3、《指数震荡成交降速趋缓，北证 A 股整体向下调整》2024-03-24 4、《成交边际企稳指数收涨，北证 A 股有所回暖》2024-03-17 5、《北交所整体成交 ...

6.1、 交投活跃度：市场交投情绪大幅降温 图表 32：成交额与换手率变化趋势 诚信、专业、稳健、高效 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 2022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-04 日均成交额（亿元） 日均换手率（%，右轴） 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 6.2、 恐慌：国内小幅上行，国外持续恶化 诚信、专业、稳健、高效 证券研究报告 证券研究报告 ▌ 宏观策略组介绍 共同看空-电子、传媒：电子、传媒行业均表现为外资连续两期看空，而内资在本期转 为看空； 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 30 诚信、专业、稳健、高效 证券研究报告 8、 投资日历：海外关注零售、库存、业绩 数据，国内关注经济数据和 MLF、LPR 操作 海外：有重磅的零售和库存数据公 ...

证 券 2024 年 04 月 14 日 研 究 汽车以旧换新市场空间大，人形机器人赛道波澜 报 壮阔 告 —汽车行业周报 推荐(维持) 投资要点 ▌汽车以旧换新市场空间大，财政重点支持 分析师：林子健 S1050523090001 linzj@cfsc.com.cn 国务院新闻办公室于 2024年 4月 11日下午 3时举行国务院政策例行 联系人：谢孟津 S1050123110012 吹风会，对《推动大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新行动方案》进行 471788324@qq.com 说明。推进大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新，是党中央着眼于我国 高质量发展大局作出的重大决策，这个决策将有力促进投资，意义深 行业相对表现 远。 表现 1M 3M 12M 汽车以旧换新市场空间大，财政重点支持：我国汽车保有量超过 3 亿 汽车(申万) 0.1 4.7 3.9 辆，换代需求在万亿元以上级别。国家鼓励将高能耗、高排放、使用 沪深300 -2 .4 5.8 -15.1 年限较长、存在安全隐患的老旧汽车，换为新能源汽车或节能型汽 市场表现 车，对报废高排放乘用车或符合条件的新能源乘用车，并购买符合节 能要求或新能源汽车的消费者 ...

证 券 2024 年 04 月 14 日 研 究 茅台批价回落扰动市场，无忧板块财报季 报 告 —食品饮料行业周报 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：孙山山 S1050521110005 ▌ 一周新闻速递 sunss@cfsc.com.cn 行业新闻： 1）抖音 3 月白酒销售占酒类销售额比重 分析师：廖望州 S1050523100001 78.68％；2）南昌发布50亿元涉酒项目。 liaowz@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：肖燕南 S1050123060024 公司新闻： 1）贵州茅台：茅台 1935 一季度电商销售额同比 xiaoyn@cfsc.com.cn 增长 161%；2）五粮液：五粮液十万吨酿酒项目封顶；3）洋 河股份：洋河股份与美团闪购战略合作；4）酒鬼酒：拟在阜 行业相对表现 阳打造亿级样板市场。 表现 1M 3M 12M ▌投资观点 食品饮料(申万) -5.2 0.1 -17.0 沪深300 -2 .4 5.8 -15.1 当前我们仍维持之前子板块顺序：白酒>啤酒>休闲食品=软饮 料>速冻食品>调味品>乳制品。 市场表现 (%) 食品饮料 沪深300 白酒板块：茅台批价扰动致市场信心不足， ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" investment rating for the silver industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [3][32]. Core Insights - The gold-silver ratio is currently at a historically high level, suggesting that silver prices may have significant upside potential as the ratio is expected to revert to lower levels [9][32]. - Industrial demand for silver is projected to increase, particularly driven by the photovoltaic (solar) sector, which is expected to see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.47% to 5.08% from 2023 to 2027 [18][22]. - The report highlights that as the U.S. manufacturing sector stabilizes, silver industrial demand is likely to rise, leading to a potential increase in silver prices that may outpace gold [29][32]. Summary by Sections 1. Gold and Silver Price Dynamics - The gold-silver ratio has risen significantly since May 2021, currently standing at 83.4, well above the 20-year average of 68.3 [9][10]. - Historical data indicates that the gold-silver ratio tends to decline when U.S. manufacturing PMI is on the rise, suggesting a potential correction in the ratio [12][29]. 2. Silver Price Elasticity - The report emphasizes that silver prices are expected to show greater elasticity, particularly as inflation concerns drive demand for precious metals [32]. - The anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are expected to support higher prices for both gold and silver [24][32]. 3. Recommended Companies - The report suggests focusing on Shengda Resources, a leading domestic silver producer with significant reserves, and Xingye Silver Tin, which specializes in silver and tin production [34][33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [11][24]. Core Views - The company has exceeded performance expectations, achieving profitability after a turnaround, with total revenue of 4.385 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 11.89% [11][24]. - The company aims for a revenue target of no less than 4.7 billion yuan in 2024, with a focus on controlling costs and expenses below 3.7 billion yuan [11]. - The report highlights the successful implementation of a high-end product strategy, resulting in improved product structure and profitability [11][24]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company reported a net profit of 2.351 billion yuan, marking a significant recovery from previous losses [11]. - The gross margin and net margin for 2023 were 59.25% and 12.00%, respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 2.13 and 0.99 percentage points [11]. - The operating cash flow for 2023 was 1.173 billion yuan, an increase of 35.01% year-on-year, indicating strong cash generation capabilities [11]. Revenue Breakdown - The company's revenue from wine, brandy, and tourism in 2023 was 3.139 billion yuan, 1.153 billion yuan, and 83 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.48%, 16.35%, and 8.59% [11][12]. - Domestic revenue growth outpaced international revenue, with domestic revenue reaching 3.762 billion yuan, a 13.27% increase, while international revenue was 623 million yuan, a 4.19% increase [12]. Future Projections - The company forecasts revenue growth rates of 10.8%, 10.6%, and 9.7% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [25]. - Projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 589 million yuan, 653 million yuan, and 732 million yuan, with growth rates of 10.6%, 10.8%, and 12.2% [25].

证 券 研 究 报 告 传媒行业深度报告 以体育赛事为支点 如何撬动体验经济？ 从F1到FE 从AI到MR应用 投资评级：推 荐 （ 维 持 ） ...