2026 年 01 月 28 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：55 分（中性） 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 | 1、《双融日报》2026-01-27 | | --- | | 2、《双融日报》2026-01-26 | | 3、《双融日报》2026-01-23 | ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（中性） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 55 分，市场情绪处于"中性"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：化工、银行、消费 1、化工主题："十五五"规划强调扩大内需，叠加美国降息 周期，化工品需求预期提升。行业供需双底基本确立，政策 助力产能出清，且资本开支连续两年负增长，供给端持续收 缩。市场普遍预计，2026 年化工行业将迎来周期拐点，有望 实现从估值修复到业绩增长的"戴维斯双击"，开启新一轮 上 升 周 期 。 相 关 标 的 ： 卫 星 化 学 （ 002648 ） 、 云 ...

2026 年 01 月 27 日 钢壳电池渗透率提升，低压电池加速导入 —珠海冠宇（688772.SH）公司动态研究报告 买入(维持) 投资要点 | S1050521120002 分析师：黎江涛 | | --- | | lijt@cfsc.com.cn | | 基本数据 | 2026-0 1-2 6 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 20.56 | | 总市值（亿元） | 233 | | 总股本（百万股） | 1132 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 1132 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 12.13-28.59 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 448.36 | 市场表现 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 25/02 25/03 25/04 25/05 25/06 25/07 25/08 25/09 25/10 25/11 25/12 26/01 (%) 珠海冠宇 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《珠海冠宇（688772）：业绩环 比大幅改善，迈入中长期向上通 道》2024-08-16 ▌3C 电池业务高增，钢壳电池扩产打开增长空间 ...

2026 年 01 月 27 日 钢壳电池渗透率提升，低压电池加速导入 —珠海冠宇（688772.SH）公司动态研究报告 买入(维持) 投资要点 分析师：黎江涛 S1050521120002 lijt@cfsc.com.cn | 基本数据 | 2026-0 1-2 6 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 20.56 | | 总市值（亿元） | 233 | | 总股本（百万股） | 1132 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 1132 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 12.13-28.59 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 448.36 | 市场表现 相关研究 1、《珠海冠宇（688772）：业绩环 比大幅改善，迈入中长期向上通 道》2024-08-16 ▌3C 电池业务高增，钢壳电池扩产打开增长空间 国补政策助力 3C 端出货量增长，公司手机电池业务保持高景 气运行，与客户苹果、小米、华为等头部智能手机厂商持续 开展深度合作，首次实现以 Cell+Pack（A+A）供货模式为三 星供应高端智能手表电池，并为三星量产交付耳机扣电， 2025H1 公司消费类锂电池销售量同比高增。在钢壳电池方 ...

2026 年 01 月 27 日 研 公募新规下的 ETF 组合投资元年 究 报 —2026 年量化和基金研究年度策略 1、《寻找港股新路标》2025-10-23 2、《寻找港股新路标——港股四季 度策略展望》2025-10-09 3、《掘金龙虎榜：活跃资金如何指 导小微盘投资》2025-07-16 | 分析师：吕思江 | S1050522030001 | | --- | --- | | lvsj@cfsc.com.cn | | | 分析师：马晨 | S1050522050001 | | machen@cfsc.com.cn | | | 分析师：武文静 | S1050525120002 | | wuwj1@cfsc.com.cn | | | 分析师：刘新源 | S1050525120004 | | liuxy@cfsc.com.cn | | ▌投资要点 2026 年度策略报告上篇中，我们详细介绍了"系统化宏观策 略"框架。这个框架从宏观+微观的角度，解决了策略研究的 四大要素：大势研判、风格选择、行业比较和基于技术面买 卖点的风险控制，其实质是一个针对 Beta 的多维度选择体 系。 在有了策略研究支持后，仍 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The equity bull market expectation combined with the rigid demand for convertible bonds has led to persistently high valuations in the convertible bond market. Attention should be paid to the risks of forced redemptions and the double - kill of the underlying stocks and valuations during the earnings disclosure period. [4] Summary by Directory 1. Market Performance - Last week, the median convertible bond price continued to rise to 142 yuan. The average daily trading volume of the entire convertible bond market was 78.6 billion yuan, a 15% decrease from the previous week. The 100 - yuan premium rate continued to rise to 35% at its historical high level. The implied volatility fluctuated around the historical extreme of 45%, and the implied volatility spread dropped from around 13% to around 11%. The trading sentiment of convertible bonds cooled marginally, the trading popularity of low - rated convertible bonds was adjusted, but the turnover rate of small - balance convertible bonds remained high. [1] - Among sub - new bonds, the median price of the underlying stocks rose 2.9%, the median price of convertible bonds rose 3.9%, and the conversion premium rate increased by 2.6%. High - parity convertible bonds rose 2.4%, outperforming the underlying stocks by 0.8%. [1] - In a high - level environment, each industry is mainly composed of equity - like convertible bonds and double - high convertible bonds. Industries with more than 50% of double - high convertible bonds include agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, automotive, computer, and pharmaceutical and biological sectors, with relatively high deviations in convertible bond valuations; industries with more than 50% of equity - like convertible bonds include non - ferrous metals, non - bank finance, military, and machinery and equipment, with high elasticity and strong offensive capabilities. [2] 2. Capital Sentiment - Comparing the share fluctuations of various broad - based indices, bond - type, and major commodity (gold) ETFs, last week, the main ETFs represented by the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 had capital outflows, while the CSI 2000 had an inflow of 25% and the gold ETF's share increased by 12%. [3] - The convertible bond ETF has been sought after by funds recently, with its fund shares increasing significantly for three consecutive weeks, and last week, the shares continued to grow by 6%. The share of interest - rate bonds continued to shrink significantly. [3] 3. Investment Strategy - When selecting bonds, emphasis should be placed on the performance support of the underlying stocks. For the latest earnings forecasts, pay attention to Bojun Convertible Bond and Guoli Convertible Bond. [4] - For new bonds, it is recommended to focus on: Weidao Convertible Bond and Yongxi Convertible Bond in the field of domestic substitution of semiconductors; Ruike Convertible Bond in the field of AI server connectors; Jin 05 Convertible Bond for power grid equipment; Yingliu Convertible Bond for gas turbines; Bo 25 Convertible Bond for automotive parts' wire - controlled braking suppliers; and Jin 25 Convertible Bond. [4]

Core Insights - The report indicates a neutral market sentiment with a score of 52, suggesting a balanced outlook for investors [2][10] - Key themes identified include chemicals, banking, and consumer sectors, each expected to perform well due to specific macroeconomic factors and policy support [6][10] Group 1: Chemicals Sector - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes expanding domestic demand, coupled with the US interest rate cut cycle, which is expected to boost demand for chemical products [6] - The industry is anticipated to reach a cyclical turning point in 2026, with expectations for valuation recovery and performance growth, termed as a "Davis Double Play" [6] - Relevant stocks in this sector include Satellite Chemical (002648) and Yuntianhua (600096) [6] Group 2: Banking Sector - Banking stocks are characterized by high dividend yields, with the CSI Bank Index yielding 6.02%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield [6] - In a slowing economy with increased market volatility, banking stocks are seen as stable investment options for long-term funds such as insurance and social security [6] - Key banking stocks mentioned include Agricultural Bank of China (601288) and Ningbo Bank (002142) [6] Group 3: Consumer Sector - The macro policy for 2026 focuses on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption, leading to positive market expectations [6] - The consumer market is undergoing significant changes, showcasing three new trends: "emotional value" in luxury goods, "extreme quality-price ratio" in discount retail, and "efficiency innovation" in AI e-commerce [6] - Notable consumer stocks include Yonghui Superstores (601933) and Wangfujing (600859) [6]

3 2026 年 01 月 26 日 Intel 与 AMD 服务器 CPU 将涨价，国产 CPU 抵抗 AMD Zen 高危漏洞 —半导体行业周报 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：吕卓阳 S1050523060001 lvzy@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 电子(申万) | 12.4 | 11.3 | 63.2 | | 沪深 300 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 22.7 | 市场表现 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -20 0 20 40 60 80 (%) 电子 沪深300 相关研究 1、《电子行业周报：Meta 成立新部 门专攻 AI 基础设施建设，Cerebras 斩获 OpenAI 合作大单》2026-01-20 2、《电子行业周报：英伟达已投产 VeraRubin，xAI 加码算力基建》 2026-01-15 3、《半导体行业周报：中芯国际拟 花 406 亿元收购中芯北方，台积电 开始量产 2nm 芯片》2025-12-31 ▌产能接近售罄，Intel 与 AMD 服务器 CPU 将涨价 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the overall risk of ETF outflows is controllable, and A-shares are expected to continue a trend of oscillating upward, with a focus on technology themes and cyclical recovery [6][10][37] - The report highlights that the macroeconomic outlook for 2026 sets a GDP growth target of 4.5-5%, emphasizing the importance of policy combinations to support economic performance [5][32] - The report notes that the A-share market has experienced significant net outflows from ETFs, with a total of approximately 3961.85 billion yuan in outflows, indicating a shift in investment strategies [6][37] Group 2 - The report identifies key sectors for investment, including technology themes such as commercial aerospace, AI applications, and cyclical recovery sectors like non-ferrous metals and chemicals [39][41] - The report discusses the performance of various indices, noting that mid-cap and small-cap stocks have outperformed large-cap stocks, with specific indices showing significant gains [41][42] - The report mentions that the valuation levels of several industries, including electronics and communications, are approaching historical highs, indicating potential caution for investors [45][46]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company [9] Core Insights - The company is expanding its carbon fiber business applications and plans to establish an industrial fund to invest in hard technology sectors such as AI [3][8] - The company has seen a performance turnaround, with revenue growth from CNY 999.5 million in 2021 to an expected CNY 1,223 million in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 7.10% [3][9] - The company is focusing on lightweight new materials, functional new materials, and environmentally friendly materials, with applications in consumer electronics, new energy vehicles, and medical fields [3][4] Summary by Relevant Sections Business Expansion - The company is establishing a venture capital fund with a total amount not exceeding CNY 1.5001 billion, focusing on hard technology and breakthrough core technologies [3][8] - The carbon fiber materials are being applied in various fields, including consumer electronics and robotics, with a notable partnership with Delos for humanoid robot materials [4][7] Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of CNY 1,563 million in 2025 and CNY 2,171 million in 2026, indicating a growth rate of 27.8% and 38.9% respectively [11] - The net profit is expected to recover from CNY 20 million in 2024 to CNY 70 million in 2026, with a significant increase of 201.0% [11][9] Market Position - The company has established a strong customer base in the consumer electronics sector, including major clients like Lenovo and Luxshare Precision [3] - The carbon fiber products have achieved mass production and are gaining market share, particularly in the foldable smartphone and robotics sectors [7][4]

证 券 研 究 报 告 行业周报 人形机器人+航空航天双轮驱动，旋转变压器迎广阔新兴市场 汽车行业周报 投资评级： （ ） 报告日期： 推荐 维持 2026年01月26日 ◼ 分析师：林子健 ◼ SAC编号：S1050523090001 投 资 要 点 ▌人形机器人+航空航天双轮驱动，旋转变压器迎来广阔新兴市场 依托极强的抗冲击抗振特性，旋转变压器有望适配人形机器人关节。旋变采用无接触式电磁感应原理，无 磨损部件仅轴承存在微量损耗，实现近乎无限的使用寿命，无需频繁维护更换，完美契合人形机器人对关 节部件高可靠性、长耐久性、抗复杂工况的严苛要求。人形机器人旋变市场规模有望远超传统旋变市场空 间。我们认为出于人形机器人的抗冲击性要求和寿命要求，人形机器人将会应用旋转变压器用来替代编码 器。我们预测到2030年人形机器人旋变市场规模有望达到61.5亿元，到2035年有望达到471.0亿元市场 规模，2026-2035年CAGR为85.9%。 卫星发射数量快速上升，带动航天领域旋变市场放量。从发射计划数据看，SpaceX将在2033年完成4.2万 颗发射，国网星座将在2035年前发射1.3万颗，千帆星座将在2030年 ...