3 2025 年 08 月 18 日 高端 AI 芯片国产化势在必行，覆铜板厂商涨价 反映 PCB 产业链景气度高企 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：吕卓阳 S1050523060001 lvzy@cfsc.com.cn 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《电子行业周报：中芯国际发布 二季度财报，OpenAI 发布 GPT5》 2025-08-11 2、《电子行业周报：国常会《关于 深入实施"人工智能+"行动的意 见》通过，国产 AI 算力建设迈入新 台阶》2025-08-04 3、《电子行业周报：谷歌上修全年 资本开支，半导体全产业链国产化 势在必行》2025-07-28 ▌上周回顾 8 月 11 日- 8 月 15 日当周，申万一级行业涨跌呈分化的态 势。其中电子行业上涨 7.02%，位列第 2 位。估值前三的行 业为计算机、国防军工、电子，电子行业市盈率为 61.03。 电子行业细分板块比较，8 月 11 日-8 月 15 日当周，电子行 业细分板块整体呈上涨态势。其中，被动元件涨幅最大，达 到 12.32%。估值方面，模拟芯片设计、LED、数字芯片设计 板块估值水平位列前三，分立器件和半 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The industry is under pressure, and the company is waiting for downstream demand recovery [5] - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 12.137 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.7%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 983 million yuan, down 35.23% year-on-year [4][5] - The chemical fiber segment showed a gross margin increase of 3.68 percentage points despite a revenue decline [5] - Future growth is expected as the economy recovers and downstream demand is released, particularly with advancements in domestic technology [7][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 5.823 billion yuan, down 17.84% year-on-year and 7.78% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 479 million yuan, down 42.61% year-on-year [4][5] - The revenue breakdown shows a decline in various segments: chemical fibers down 9.43%, new chemical materials down 8.82%, and basic chemical products down 15.01% [5] Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross margin for the chemical fiber segment was 18.65%, an increase of 3.68 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross margin for basic chemical products was 4.37%, a decrease of 11.08 percentage points [5][6] - The financial expense ratio increased mainly due to a decrease in interest income [6] Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 2.101 billion, 3.057 billion, and 3.588 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18.3, 12.6, and 10.7 [9] - The report anticipates that the integration of the polyurethane industry will lead to profit growth in the long term [9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the AI industry wave, with a focus on liquid cooling technology, which is anticipated to become a significant growth area [6][10]. - The company has a strong customer base, including leading global firms, and has made substantial investments in research and development for liquid cooling solutions [7]. - Despite a projected decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, the company is expected to recover and grow significantly in the coming years, with forecasts indicating a rise in net profit from 1.3 billion to 3.0 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [9][12]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company has faced challenges in the first half of 2025, with net profit expected to decline by 50% to 60% year-on-year, primarily due to intense industry competition and rising labor costs [6]. Investment Highlights - The company has a rich reserve of liquid cooling technology and has been deeply involved in the heat dissipation sector for years, with significant revenue generated from early projects [7]. - The chairman's extensive experience and the company's role as a core supplier to major clients like Foxconn position it well for future growth [8]. Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 1.3 billion yuan in 2025, increasing to 3.0 billion yuan by 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 39, 22, and 17 times [9][12].

Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment score is 93, indicating an "overheated" market condition, which suggests a potential resistance to further upward movement [6][9][17]. Hot Themes Tracking - **Brain-Computer Interface Theme**: The National Healthcare Security Administration has introduced a new pricing mechanism for innovative medical technologies, including a "brain-computer interface implantation fee," which is expected to accelerate the clinical application of innovative drugs and devices. Related stocks include Innovation Medical (002173) and Weisi Medical (688580) [6]. - **Robotics Theme**: The first World Humanoid Robot Games took place in Beijing, showcasing advancements in motion control and practical applications. Related stocks include Wolong Electric (600580) and Changsheng Bearing (300718) [6]. - **Logistics Theme**: The State Post Bureau held discussions to address issues in the express delivery industry, promoting high-quality development. The commercialization of unmanned logistics vehicles is also gaining traction, particularly in the "last mile" delivery segment. Related stocks include Shentong Express (002468) and SF Holding (002352) [6]. Capital Flow Analysis - **Top Net Inflow Stocks**: The top stocks with significant net inflows include Dongfang Caifu (573.36 million), Zhinanzhen (141.55 million), and Zhongke Sanhuan (62.22 million) [10]. - **Top Net Outflow Stocks**: The stocks with the highest net outflows include Dongshan Precision (-91.66 million), Heertai (-84.24 million), and Sifang Chuangxin (-74.04 million) [12][18]. - **Industry Net Inflows**: The non-bank financial sector saw the highest net inflow at 825.98 million, followed by electrical equipment (188.82 million) and household appliances (115.79 million) [15][16]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - In an "overheated" market, it is advisable to consider reducing positions to avoid buying at market peaks and to be cautious of potential market bubbles [17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [9]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the ongoing performance of new consumption sectors, particularly in bottom-tier liquor and leisure snacks, indicating a sustained high demand [6][9]. - The liquor sector is experiencing a rebound, with companies like Kweichow Moutai showing resilience despite market pressures, and the report suggests a focus on cyclical and high-dividend leaders [6][9]. - The new consumption sector is expected to see steady performance driven by strong fundamentals, with specific attention on companies like Tea Baidao and Gu Ming [7][9]. Summary by Sections Industry News - Qingdao Beer production reached 1.1037 million tons in the first half of the year, and liquor prices have decreased by 2.0% year-on-year from January to July [6][19]. - New standards for Dongxiang liquor are in progress, indicating regulatory developments in the industry [6][19]. Company News - Kweichow Moutai reported a revenue of 89.389 billion yuan for H1 2025, a 9% increase year-on-year, with net profit also up by 9% [6][9]. - Anji Yeast's revenue for H1 2025 was 7.899 billion yuan, a 10% increase, driven by reduced costs and improved operational efficiency [7][9]. - Wei Long's revenue for H1 2025 was 3.483 billion yuan, a 19% increase, with expectations for stable sales growth in the second half of the year [7][9]. Key Company Feedback - The report highlights the performance of various companies, with Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao being recommended for their strong market positions and potential for growth [6][9]. - The report also notes the performance of new consumption brands, indicating a positive outlook for companies like Nai Xue's Tea and other beverage brands [7][9]. Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector has shown varied performance over the past months, with a 0.4% increase over the last month but a 6.9% decrease over the last three months [3][4]. - The liquor sector is highlighted as having a significant rebound potential, with Kweichow Moutai's price stabilizing and expectations for improved performance in the coming quarters [6][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][10]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated strong earnings performance with a total revenue of 3.483 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a 19% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 733 million yuan, up 18% year-on-year [5][10]. - The growth in performance is attributed to the company's continuous enhancement of its omnichannel strategy and brand building, along with optimization of its channel structure [5][10]. - The report highlights the company's focus on cost control, which has helped mitigate cost pressures, resulting in a stable net profit margin of 21.05% despite a slight decrease in gross margin [6][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company's gross margin decreased by 3 percentage points to 47.16% due to rising prices of konjac powder affecting the profitability of konjac products [6]. - The sales and management expense ratios decreased by 1 percentage point and 2 percentage points to 15.14% and 5.77%, respectively [6]. Product and Channel Strategy - The revenue from seasoning noodle products declined by 3% to 1.31 billion yuan, while vegetable products saw a 44% increase to 2.109 billion yuan [7]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its product offerings and enhancing channel display quality, with expectations for sales stabilization in the second half of the year [7]. - The offline channel revenue increased by 22% to 3.147 billion yuan, benefiting from the company's omnichannel strategy, while online channel revenue decreased by 4% to 336 million yuan [8]. Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts the earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 to 0.57, 0.68, and 0.78 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 22, 18, and 16 times [10][12]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from the high demand in the konjac market, with projections for steady growth in the second half of the year [10].

2025 年 08 月 17 日 继续通过中盘股指数参与流动性行情 分析师：吕思江 S1050522030001 lvsj@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：马晨 S1050522050001 machen@cfsc.com.cn 相关研究 3、《全天候连续六周新高， 固收+港股 ETF 组合上线》 2025-08-04 投资要点 ▌本周建议一览 核心观点： 综合外盘和国内市场情绪，我们认为自四月开始的风险偏 好改善和流动性提升，会推动指数高位震荡至九月，并有 望在八月下旬见到多资产波动率的提升。 我们希望在主要持仓上回归资产基本面，适当参与流动性 溢价，同时避免成为其他投资者的溢价来源。在全球复苏 Goldilocks 和再通胀逻辑未证伪前，利用波动增加成长股 暴露。大类资产配置上继续保持一定的"反脆弱"资产， 对冲美元可能走强带来的 Risk Off。本轮行情轮动速度 快，大盘股指数基本修复至前高，流动性外溢下我们更多 看好相应的中小盘股指数机会，包括恒生中型股 LOF、科 创 200ETF、创业板 200ETF、中证 1000 和 2000 增强 ETF 等标的。 美股：较低仓位，如果有快速调整建议增配 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Chinese economy is in a marginal de - leveraging process, with the liability growth rate of the real - sector expected to decline. The government aims to stabilize the macro - leverage ratio, and the monetary policy will generally remain neutral and difficult to be continuously loose. The market is currently affected by risk preference, and the subsequent trends of risk preference, economic recovery, and the US economy need to be focused on [2][3][7] - In the context of the contraction of the national balance sheet, the allocation of financial assets should adopt a dumbbell - shaped strategy. The bond market is the large base, and the stock market is the small head. The stock allocation strategy is dividend plus growth, and the bond allocation strategy is duration plus credit - sinking [25] - In the contraction cycle, the equity - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to be dominant. Red - dividend stocks with characteristics of non - expansion, good profitability, and survival are recommended [12][67] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Balance Sheet Analysis - **Liability Side**: In July 2025, the liability growth rate of the real sector was 9.0%, with a lower - than - expected rebound. It is expected to decline to 8.9% in August and further to 8% by the end of the year. The government's liability growth rate is also expected to decline from 15.7% in July to 14.8% in August and 12.5% by the end of the year. The money market has tightened marginally, and the peak of the money market in August was likely in the first week [2][3][21] - **Monetary Policy**: The trading volume of funds decreased last week, and the price was stable. The one - year Treasury yield rose to 1.37%, and the term spread widened. The estimated lower limit of the one - year Treasury yield is 1.3%, the ten - year Treasury yield is about 1.6%, and the thirty - year Treasury yield is about 1.8% [3][22] - **Asset Side**: After a brief stabilization in June, the physical volume data declined again in July. The annual real economic growth target for 2025 is about 5%, and the nominal economic growth target is about 4.9%. Whether this will be the central target for the next 1 - 2 years needs further observation [4][23] 3.2 Stock - Bond Ratio and Stock - Bond Style - **Market Performance Last Week**: The money market tightened marginally, but risk preference increased. Stocks rose, and bonds fell. The equity growth style was dominant, and the stock - bond ratio favored stocks, breaking through the previous high on August 15th [6][26] - **Future Outlook**: The trend of risk preference is uncertain. There are three possible scenarios: range - bound fluctuations, a short - term upward trend, or a fundamental change in the subjective weighting of Chinese profitability. A portfolio of growth - type equity assets and long - term bonds is recommended, with a 70% position in the CSI 1000 Index and a 30% position in the 30 - year Treasury ETF [10][11][29] 3.3 Industry Recommendation - **Industry Performance Review**: The A - share market rose this week. The communication, electronics, non - bank finance, power equipment, and computer sectors had the largest increases, while the bank, steel, textile and apparel, coal, and public utilities sectors had the largest declines [35] - **Industry Crowding and Trading Volume**: As of August 15th, the top five crowded industries were electronics, computer, power equipment, machinery, and non - bank finance. The trading volume of the whole A - share market increased this week, with non - bank finance, real estate, and other sectors having the highest growth rates [36][38] - **Industry Valuation and Profitability**: The PE (TTM) of the comprehensive, communication, and other sectors increased the most this week, while the bank, steel, and other sectors declined. Industries with high 2024 full - year profit forecasts and relatively low current valuations include banks, coal, and oil and petrochemicals [41][42] - **Industry Prosperity**: External demand generally declined. The global manufacturing PMI decreased in July, and the CCFI index fell. Domestic indicators such as port throughput and industrial capacity utilization showed mixed trends [46] - **Public Fund Market Review**: In the second week of August, most active public equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. As of August 15th, the net asset value of active public equity funds was slightly higher than that in Q4 2024 [62] - **Industry Recommendation**: In the contraction cycle, the equity - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to be dominant. An A + H red - dividend portfolio of 20 stocks and an A - share portfolio of 20 stocks, mainly concentrated in banks, telecommunications, and other industries, are recommended [12][67]

证 券 研 究 报 告 行业周报 医药行业周报 全球GLP-1市场稳定扩容，关注国内企 业的授权机会 投资评级： 报告日期： 推荐 （维持 ） 2025年08月17日 分析师：胡博新 SAC编号：S1050522120002 分析师：吴景欢 SAC编号：S1050523070004 医 药 行 业 观 点 1. 东升西落，出海将是长期趋势 根据医药魔方数据，2025年上半年，全球医药交易数量达456笔，同比增长32%；首付款总额达118亿美元，同比激增 136%；交易总金额高达1304亿美元，同比增长58%。全球交易数量与金额均呈现显著上升态势。其中，涉及中国的交易 贡献了近50%的总金额和超过30%的交易数量。无论交易金额和总数，中国企业在全球创新药中价值得到进一步认可。中 国的研发效率优势正逐步显现，而且工程师数量和临床资源优势叠加。展望未来十年，中国的效率优势还将持续扩大，中 国企业参与的创新药交易预计超过全球的50%以上。根据wind数据，医药生物行业最近1月涨幅为11.07%，跑赢沪深300指 数6.51个百分点，截止8月15日，医药生物行业指数当期PE（TTM）39.94倍；高于5年历史平均估值3 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the media industry, highlighting potential growth driven by AI applications and digital marketing innovations [4][8]. Core Insights - The media sector is experiencing significant growth, with a 61.5% increase over the past 12 months, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which saw a 25.6% increase [2]. - AI applications are expected to continue driving growth in the media sector, particularly in digital advertising and content creation, with companies like BlueX and DeepSeek leading the charge [3][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the second half of the year for companies' core business operations, following the release of interim results [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Media Industry Review - The media sector has shown strong performance, with notable stock movements among companies like Jishi Media and Yuedu Group, which saw increases of 45.19% and 21.57% respectively [13]. - The overall market sentiment remains positive, with a focus on AI's role in reshaping digital marketing strategies [14]. 2. Key Recommended Stocks and Logic - The report recommends several stocks within the media sector, including: - BlueX (300058) for its innovative advertising model similar to AppLovin's Axon 2.0 [4]. - Mango Super Media (300413) for its new AI initiatives and diverse content offerings [4]. - Other notable mentions include Tianzhou Culture (300148) and Wanda Film (002739), both expected to benefit from ongoing digital transformations [4]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The gaming sector is thriving, with Tencent reporting a 17% increase in domestic game revenue and a 35% increase in international revenue [17]. - The film market is also recovering, with the summer box office surpassing 90 billion yuan, indicating strong consumer interest and a diverse slate of films [27][28]. 4. AI Applications in Media - AI is transforming digital marketing, with companies like AppLovin and BlueX leveraging AI to enhance advertising efficiency and effectiveness [14]. - The report highlights the potential for AI to drive user engagement and content creation across various platforms, including Bilibili and Meitu [15][16]. 5. Company Performance and Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts for key companies, with many expected to see significant growth in EPS and PE ratios over the next few years [8]. - Companies like Huace Film (300133) and Mango Super Media (300413) are projected to achieve substantial increases in earnings per share, reflecting their strong market positions and innovative strategies [8].