2025 年 12 月 01 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：71 分（较热） 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 1、《双融日报》2025-11-28 2、《双融日报》2025-11-27 3、《双融日报》2025-11-26 1、有色金属主题：美元降息提振需求预期，AI 数据中心拉 动边际增量。铜：金融属性叠加矿端紧张、冶炼厂减产，传 统需求韧性+AI 拉动，价格中枢上移。铝：国内产能见顶、 海外增量有限，十五五开局紧平衡强化。相关标的：紫金矿 业（601899）、中国铝业（601600） 2、银行主题：银行股具有高股息特性，如中证银行指数的股 息率高达 6.02%，显著高于 10 年期国债收益率。在经济增 速放缓和市场波动加大时，银行股凭借稳定的分红能力，成 为险资、社保等长期资金的重要配置标的。相关标的：农业 银行（601288）、宁波银行（002142） 3、低空经济主题：2025 亚洲通用航空展定于 11 月 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [1][9]. Core Insights - The company has shown a revenue growth of 10.68% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit increase of 25.10% [2][3]. - The cooling tower segment is positioned as a leader in the market, with significant growth potential driven by data center demand and domestic replacement opportunities [4][7]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas business, which has already seen over 1,000 projects in more than 70 countries, enhancing its profitability and global market share [7]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.219 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 27.44%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.56 percentage points [3]. - The net profit margin for the same period was 4.38%, up by 0.68 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company holds a backlog of orders totaling 3.376 billion yuan as of June 30, 2025, representing a 2.93% increase from the previous year [3]. Market Opportunities - The domestic cooling tower market for data centers is projected to reach 66 billion USD (approximately 459 billion yuan) by 2030, indicating substantial growth potential [4]. - The company is focusing on high-margin overseas projects, which are expected to further enhance profitability [7]. Shareholder Confidence - The company has initiated a share buyback plan, allocating 60 to 120 million yuan for employee stock ownership plans, reflecting confidence in future performance [8]. - The targets set for revenue and net profit growth from 2025 to 2027 are ambitious, with expected revenues of 1.839 billion, 2.111 billion, and 2.430 billion yuan, and net profits of 110 million, 127 million, and 146 million yuan respectively [8]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1.793 billion, 2.073 billion, and 2.393 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.36, 0.48, and 0.62 yuan [9][11].

证 券 研 究 报 告 行业周报 关注吸入制剂在呼吸疾病领域的突破 医药行业周报 投资评级： 报告日期： 推荐 （ 维持 ） 2025年11月30日 分析师：胡博新 SAC编号：S1050522120002 分析师：吴景欢 SAC编号：S1050523070004 医 药 行 业 观 点 在呼吸疾病领域，如IPF、COPD等，吸入制剂+新靶点组合正取得更多积极的治疗效果。2025年6月10日，Insmed公布其 治疗PAH(肺动脉高压）新药TPIP（曲前列环素棕榈醇吸入粉剂）的临床2b期顶线数据，安慰剂校正的PVR较基线降低35%， LS均值比0.65（p＜0.001）。其冻干粉制剂的设计，不仅实现了用药的方便性，只需每日一次，而且治疗效果也优于曲前 列环素的口服品种。7月9日，默沙东宣布收购一家专注于呼吸系统疾病的生物制药公司Verona Pharma，总交易价值约为 100亿美元。通过此次收购，默沙东将获得一款用于治疗慢性阻塞性肺病（COPD）的重磅新药Ohtuvayre（恩司芬群）， 这是一种针对磷酸二酯酶3和4（PDE3和PDE4）的首创选择性双重抑制剂。FDA于2024年6月批准Ohtuvayre用 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry, particularly focusing on the humanoid robot sector [2][6]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is accelerating its layout in embodied intelligence, driving a dual advancement in the automotive and robotics industries. Companies like Xiaomi, Changan, BYD, and others are heavily investing in humanoid robotics, leveraging their technological expertise and supply chain capabilities to reduce costs and facilitate rapid production [3][5][6]. - The humanoid robot sector has shown significant market performance, with the Huaxin humanoid robot index rising by 5.36% this week and a cumulative return of 90.3% year-to-date [14][17]. - Key companies in the humanoid robot supply chain are recommended for investment, including New Spring Co., Shuanglin Co., and others, due to their high-value components and growth potential in the market [6][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Humanoid Robot Sector Market Performance - The Huaxin humanoid robot index increased by 5.36% this week, with a year-to-date return of 90.3% [14]. - Within the humanoid robot sector, components such as motors and joints have shown strong performance, with increases of 6.7% and 6.0% respectively [17][21]. 2. Automotive Sector Market Performance and Valuation Levels - The CITIC automotive index rose by 3.3%, outperforming the broader market by 1.7 percentage points [29]. - The automotive sector's PE ratio is at 31.4, placing it in the 34.4% percentile over the past four years, while the PB ratio is at 3.0, in the 95.3% percentile [44]. 3. Industry Data Tracking - From November 1 to 23, the average daily retail of passenger cars in China decreased by 11% year-on-year, totaling 1.384 million units [50]. - The average price of aluminum has decreased recently, indicating fluctuations in raw material costs that could impact the automotive industry [58]. 4. Company Announcements - Notable announcements include BYD's investment in robotics and partnerships with academic institutions to advance humanoid robot technology [4][27]. - Companies like Kaidi Co. and Chang'an have made significant moves in expanding their robotics capabilities, indicating a trend towards integrating robotics into their operations [67][68].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company [2][9] Core Insights - The company's short-term profitability is under pressure, but the data communication market is experiencing rapid growth, particularly in DCI, computing centers, and data center sectors [5][6] - The company has a strong technological advantage in DCI products, which are currently in small-scale trial production, and the revenue contribution from these products is expected to increase significantly [6][7] - The company is also advancing its silicon-based OCS technology, with overseas sample orders already received, and aims to accelerate the development of next-generation OCS products [7] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters, the company achieved revenue of 652 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.59%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 47.43% to 40 million yuan [5] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1.028 billion, 1.694 billion, and 2.683 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.50, 1.36, and 2.51 yuan [9][11] - The company is expected to gradually improve its profitability as market demand recovers and new production capacity is fully released [5][9] Market Trends - The demand for DCI products is driven by the mainstream trend of distributed computing clusters, which require high bandwidth, high integration, low cost, and low latency [6] - The traditional telecom transmission market is experiencing structural slowdowns, impacting profit margins, but the strong demand for AI and computing infrastructure is providing growth opportunities [5][6] Future Outlook - The company is well-positioned to leverage its technological advantages in long-distance optoelectronic devices and is expected to gradually release profits in the medium to long term [9] - The anticipated launch of the second-generation high-dimensional OCS prototype in the first half of 2026 is expected to enhance the company's product offerings [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China is in a marginal de - leveraging process, with the government's goal of stabilizing the macro - leverage ratio remaining unchanged. The real - sector debt growth rate is expected to decline, and the government debt growth rate is also trending down. [2][17] - Currently, the stock - bond ratio favors stocks due to the impact of the Vanke event on bonds, but in the future, with the assumptions of stable earnings, converging macro - liquidity, and declining risk appetite, the stock - bond ratio will shift towards bonds, and the equity style will lean towards value. [6][24] - The US economic situation is similar to that after the burst of the Internet bubble in 2001. The Fed has raised its economic growth forecasts for 2025 - 2027, indicating that the worst for the US economy may be over, and China's external environment honeymoon period has ended. [7][22] - In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and value stocks are more likely to outperform. The recommended portfolio is long - term bonds plus value - type equity assets. [8][24] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Asset Balance Sheet Analysis 3.1.1 Liability Side - In October 2025, the real - sector debt growth rate was 8.6%, down from 8.9% previously, with a larger - than - expected decline. It is expected to stabilize around 8.6% in November and then decline, returning to a de - leveraging state. By the end of the year, it is expected to drop to around 8.4%. [2][17] - The government debt (including national and local bonds) net increased by 354.7 billion yuan last week (higher than the planned 248 billion yuan), and is expected to net decrease by 73.3 billion yuan next week. The government debt growth rate at the end of October 2025 was 13.9%, down from 14.5% previously, and is expected to decline to around 13.0% in November and by the end of the year. [3][18] - The money market marginally relaxed last week. This week, there may still be some recovery momentum in the money market, but the time and space are limited. Attention should be paid to whether a peak in the money market is formed this week. [2][17] 3.1.2 Asset Side - The physical quantity data in October continued to weaken compared to September. The key is to focus on when the economy will stabilize or even show marginal upward movement. The nominal economic growth target for 2025 is around 4.9%, and it needs to be further observed whether this will be the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years. [4][19] 3.2 Stock - Bond Cost - Effectiveness and Stock - Bond Style - Last week, due to the marginal relaxation of the money market and the impact of the Vanke event, bonds performed poorly, while stocks were strong, with the growth style outperforming in the equity market. The ten - year bond yield rose by 2 basis points to 1.84%, the one - year bond yield remained stable at 1.40%, and the 30 - year bond yield rose by 3 basis points to 2.19%. [6][21] - The recommended portfolio is to shift from bonds to full - position equities, but the equity investment is more concentrated in value stocks. The broad - based rotation strategy underperformed the CSI 300 index by - 0.51pct last week and has underperformed by - 5.23pct since July 2024, with a maximum drawdown of 12.1% (compared to 15.7% for the CSI 300). [6][21] - Bonds were affected by the Vanke event and declined. Investors are advised to pay attention to the opportunity to enter after the over - adjustment. If a peak in the money market occurs this week, investors in the equity market are advised to shift to a defensive position. The recommended portfolio for this week is the SSE 50 index (80% position) and the CSI 1000 index (20% position). [8][24] 3.3 Industry Recommendation 3.3.1 Industry Performance Review - This week, the A - share market rose with shrinking volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.4%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 3.6%, and the ChiNext Index rose 4.5%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, communication, electronics, comprehensive, media, and light manufacturing had the largest increases, while petroleum and petrochemicals, banking, coal, and transportation had the largest declines. [29] 3.3.2 Industry Crowding and Trading Volume - As of November 28, the top five industries in terms of crowding were electronics, power equipment, computer, communication, and machinery, with values of 17.7%, 10.6%, 7.1%, 6.9%, and 6.4% respectively. The bottom five were beauty care, comprehensive, coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, and steel, with values of 0.2%, 0.3%, 0.5%, 0.6%, and 0.6% respectively. [32] - This week, the top five industries with the largest increase in crowding were electronics, communication, machinery, retail, and media, with increases of 2.6%, 1.9%, 0.4%, 0.3%, and 0.3% respectively. The top five with a decline were non - bank finance, basic chemicals, power equipment, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and banking, with declines of 1%, 0.9%, 0.9%, 0.7%, and 0.5% respectively. [32] - The average daily trading volume of the entire A - share market this week was 1.74 trillion yuan, down from 1.87 trillion yuan last week. The industries with the highest year - on - year growth in trading volume were media, communication, national defense and military industry, social services, and electronics, while coal, steel, beauty care, power equipment, and non - bank finance had the largest declines. [33] 3.3.3 Industry Valuation and Earnings - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, communication, electronics, media, comprehensive, and light manufacturing had the largest increases in PE(TTM), while petroleum and petrochemicals, coal, food and beverage, and steel had the largest declines. [37] - As of November 28, 2025, industries with high full - year 2024 earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations compared to history include banking, securities, insurance, coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, pharmaceutical biology, auto parts, beauty care, new energy, and consumer electronics. [38] 3.3.4 Industry Prosperity - In terms of external demand, there was a marginal recovery. The global manufacturing PMI rose from 50.7 to 50.8 in October, and the PMIs of major economies showed mixed trends. The CCFI index declined slightly week - on - week in the latest week, and the port cargo throughput decreased. South Korea's export growth rate decreased in October and increased in the first 20 days of November, while Vietnam's export growth rate slightly declined. [42] - In terms of domestic demand, the second - hand housing price declined in the latest week, and the quantity indicators showed mixed trends. The highway truck traffic volume decreased. The capacity utilization rate of ten major industries showed a continuous increase from May to August 2025, a continuous decline from September to October, and a slight increase in November but still at a historical low. The automobile trading volume was at a relatively high level in the same period of history, the new - housing trading volume remained at a historical low, and the second - hand housing trading volume declined seasonally. [42] 3.3.5 Public Fund Market Review - In the fourth week of November (November 24 - 28), most active public equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. The 10%, 20%, 30%, and 50% weekly returns were 6%, 4.9%, 4.1%, and 3.1% respectively, while the CSI 300 rose 1.6% weekly. [59] - As of November 28, based on the latest net value and share estimates, the net asset value of active public equity funds was 3.83 trillion yuan, slightly up from 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024. [59] 3.3.6 Industry Recommendation - In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to outperform. The recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 13 A + H stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 A - shares, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation. [65]

◼ 分析师：黎江涛 ◼ SAC编号：S1050521120002 证 券 研 究 报 告 行业周报 锂电产业链持续景气，电解液涨幅显著 新能源汽车行业周报 投资评级： （ ） 报告日期： 推荐 维持 2025年11月30日 投 资 要 点 需求旺盛，继续看好产业链优质企业。根据中汽协数据，10月，我国新能源汽车月产销分别完成177.2万辆和171.5万辆，同 比分别增长21.1%和20%。1~10月，我国新能源汽车产销累计完成1301.5万辆和1294.3万辆，同比分别增长33.1%和 32.7% 。供给端，电池及主机厂新品不断推出，需求端反馈积极，政策也不断发力。价格层面，产业链历经价格大幅下行， 资本开支不断收缩，供需格局不断优化，行业协会、产业链公司均在积极优化产能与供给，力争价格保障企业盈利。整体而言， 产业链价格处于底部，价格企稳回升，部分环节如碳酸锂、六氟磷酸锂、电解液需求强劲，供给偏紧，价格进入上升阶段，看 好产业链优质公司。 行业评级及投资策略： 政策持续呵护，供给端部分企业开始收缩资本开支，供需结构在边际优化，2025年产业链价格触底修复。继续优选有望贡献 超额收益方向，看好机器人阿尔法品种 ...

Group 1: Overall Market Insights - The report highlights the focus on the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, liquidity recovery, and AI chip competition in December, predicting a volatile recovery in the US stock market with opportunities for low-cost investments [4][14][15] - Domestic PMI shows slight improvement, with attention on policy signals from the Political Bureau and Central Economic Work Conference, indicating a cautious but positive outlook for the A-share market [4][19][21] - The report anticipates a range-bound movement in the A-share market, with a focus on low-consumption sectors, price recovery cycles, and technology themes driven by industrial catalysts [4][22] Group 2: Key Stock Recommendations - The report lists ten key stocks, including Luxshare Precision (002475.SZ) in electronics, Rui Ming Technology (002970.SZ) in new energy, and Zhongmin Resources (002738.SZ) in non-ferrous metals, among others, with no specific ranking [5][12] - Luxshare Precision is expected to benefit from AI-enabled consumer electronics, with a projected revenue growth from 265.32 billion to 358.63 billion RMB from 2024 to 2026 [23][26] - Rui Ming Technology is positioned as a leader in commercial vehicle AI solutions, with revenue forecasts of 26.7 billion to 41.5 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027, driven by policy support and safety requirements [30][34] Group 3: Industry-Specific Insights - The electronics sector, particularly Luxshare Precision, is experiencing growth due to AI integration in consumer electronics, with significant revenue increases expected [23][24] - The storage market is recovering, with companies like Zhaoyi Innovation (603986.SH) benefiting from rising demand and prices for niche DRAM products, projecting revenues of 73.83 million to 107.37 million RMB from 2024 to 2026 [27][28] - The new energy sector, represented by Rui Ming Technology, is set for high growth due to increasing demand for intelligent driving solutions and supportive regulations, with revenue forecasts indicating substantial growth [30][34] Group 4: Financial Performance and Projections - Luxshare Precision reported a revenue of 177.18 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 13.67% [23] - Zhaoyi Innovation's revenue for Q1 2024 showed a year-on-year increase of 21.32%, reflecting a recovery in the consumer market [27] - Zhongmin Resources is enhancing its lithium salt self-sufficiency and expanding its copper mining projects, with projected revenues of 56.91 billion to 97.27 billion RMB from 2024 to 2026 [49][50]

Core Insights - The report indicates a neutral market sentiment with a score of 57, suggesting a balanced outlook for investors [5][9]. - Key themes identified for investment include non-ferrous metals, banking, and low-altitude economy, driven by various market dynamics [5]. Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals theme is buoyed by expectations of increased demand due to potential US interest rate cuts and AI data center growth, leading to a price increase for copper and aluminum [5]. - Specific stocks highlighted include Zijin Mining (601899) and Aluminum Corporation of China (601600) as potential beneficiaries of this trend [5]. Banking Sector - The banking sector is characterized by high dividend yields, with the China Securities Banking Index yielding 6.02%, significantly above the 10-year government bond yield [5]. - In a slowing economy with increased market volatility, bank stocks are positioned as attractive options for long-term institutional investors, with Agricultural Bank of China (601288) and Ningbo Bank (002142) mentioned as key stocks [5]. Low-Altitude Economy - The low-altitude economy is gaining traction, highlighted by the Asia General Aviation Exhibition taking place from November 27 to 30, 2025, in Zhuhai, attracting over 300 companies from 21 countries [5]. - This sector is still in its early development stages, with significant opportunities in infrastructure and aircraft manufacturing, with stocks like Zongshen Power (001696) and Haige Communications (002465) identified as potential investments [5].

Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment score is 72, indicating a "relatively hot" market condition, with historical trends showing that scores below 30 provide support and scores above 70 present resistance [5][8]. Hot Themes Tracking - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Demand expectations are boosted by the anticipated US interest rate cuts and AI data centers driving marginal increases. Copper prices are rising due to financial attributes, supply tightness, and production cuts, while aluminum faces a tight balance with limited overseas growth. Key stocks include Zijin Mining (601899) and China Aluminum (601600) [5]. - **Power Equipment**: The intersection of global energy and digital transformation is accelerating AI penetration in the power sector. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global data center electricity consumption will double by 2030. China's State Grid investment exceeded 420 billion yuan in the first nine months of the year, with a projected annual investment of over 650 billion yuan. Relevant stocks include Guodian Nanzi (600268) and China XD Electric (601179) [5]. - **Low-altitude Economy**: The Asia General Aviation Exhibition is set to take place from November 27 to 30, attracting over 300 companies from 21 countries. The low-altitude economy is in its early development stage, with significant market potential, particularly in infrastructure and aircraft manufacturing. Key stocks include Zongshen Power (001696) and Haige Communication (002465) [5]. Capital Flow Analysis - The top ten stocks with the highest net inflow include Yangguang Electric (300274) with 108.68 million yuan and Huhua Electric (002463) with 99.75 million yuan, indicating strong investor interest in these companies [9][10]. - The top ten stocks with the highest net outflow include BlueFocus (300058) with -122.18 million yuan and Shenguang Group (002400) with -89.17 million yuan, reflecting investor caution towards these stocks [13]. Industry Insights - The report highlights significant capital inflows in the communication, power equipment, and electronics sectors, indicating strong investor confidence in these industries [16][19]. - Conversely, industries such as media, computer, and non-bank financials are experiencing notable capital outflows, suggesting a shift in investor sentiment away from these sectors [22].