| 基本数据 | 2025-09-01 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 34.51 | | 总市值（亿元） | 319 | | 总股本（百万股） | 924 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 812 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 14.58-34.51 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 290.53 | 市场表现 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 (%) 亚钾国际 沪深300 相关研究 —亚钾国际（000893.SZ）公司事件点评报告 2025 年 09 月 02 日 钾肥业务量价齐升兑现利润 买入(首次) 事件 | 分析师：张伟保 | S1050523110001 | | --- | --- | | zhangwb@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：高铭谦 | S1050124080006 | | gaomq@cfsc.com.cn | | 2025 年上半年，公司钾肥业务实现量价齐升，驱动营收显著 增长，公司钾肥产品营收达 24.91 亿元，同比增长 50.17%。 市场上，受到俄、白俄矿山维护减产影响，全球氯化钾供 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [5]. Core Viewpoints - The company's performance is under short-term pressure due to low product prices, with total revenue for the first half of 2025 at 3.444 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.62%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 22 million yuan, down 89.24% year-on-year [1][2]. - The chemical and new materials business saw a revenue increase of 2.37% to 2.234 billion yuan, while the energy business revenue decreased by 21.75% to 1.210 billion yuan. The overall profitability has declined significantly due to narrowing price spreads between products and raw materials [2]. - The company has increased its R&D investment, reaching 175 million yuan, a 37.36% increase year-on-year, which has impacted cash flow negatively [3]. - The expansion of the butanol production capacity is expected to strengthen the company's competitive edge, with the new capacity projected to reach 150,000 tons per year [4][8]. - The company is expected to fill the market gap left by Shell's exit and improve performance through increased production of MTBE and butanediol, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 129 million, 410 million, and 518 million yuan respectively [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported total operating income of 3.444 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.62% year-on-year, and a net profit of 22 million yuan, down 89.24% year-on-year [1]. - The chemical and new materials segment's revenue increased by 2.37% to 2.234 billion yuan, while the energy segment's revenue decreased by 21.75% to 1.210 billion yuan [2]. R&D and Cash Flow - R&D expenses accounted for 2.78% of total revenue, with a significant increase in investment to 175 million yuan, impacting cash flow negatively [3]. Production Capacity and Market Position - The company is expanding its butanol production capacity, which is expected to enhance its market position and operational efficiency [4][8]. - The new MTBE production capacity is anticipated to help recover from the decline in profitability and fill the market void left by competitors [9]. Profit Forecast - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 129 million, 410 million, and 518 million yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 35.1, 11.1, and 8.8 [9].

2025 年 09 月 02 日 | 基本数据 | 2025-09-01 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 25.94 | | 总市值（亿元） | 12329 | | 总股本（百万股） | 47530 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 2990 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 23.23-31.47 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 1127.69 | 市场表现 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 (%) 中国海油 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《中国海油（600938）：油气产 量和储量双增，成本持续下降》 2025-04-09 2、《中国海油（600938）：Q3 油气 产量提升，优质多元资产支撑稳健 经营》2024-11-13 油价下行拖累业绩，增储上产筑牢资源护城河 —中国海油（600938.SH）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 | 分析师：张伟保 | S1050523110001 | | --- | --- | | zhangwb@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：高铭谦 | S1050124080006 | ...

2025 年 09 月 02 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：85 分（过热） 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（过热） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 85 分，市场情绪处于"过热"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：机器人、GPU、稀土 1、机器人主题：英伟达即将推出机器人新"大脑"。8 月 24 日，英伟达机器人账号在社交平台发布预热推文，"你安排 好时间了吗？2025 年 8 月 25 日。"配图中是一个黑色礼 盒，上面是一张写着"好好享受！"、带着黄仁勋签名落款 的 贺 卡 。 相 关 标 的 ： 卧 龙 电 驱 （ 600580 ） 、 长 盛 轴 承 （300718） 2、GPU 主题：工信部副部长熊继军在 2025 中国算力大会上强 调，工信部将有序引导算力设施建设，切实提升算力资源供 给质量。推动完善算力布局政策体系，优化布局算力基础设 ...

智能化转型加速，国际化战略与技术创新双轮并 进 买入(维持) 事件 分析师：尤少炜 S1050525030002 yousw@cfsc.com.cn | 基本数据 | 2025-09-01 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 24.02 | | 总市值（亿元） | 56 | | 总股本（百万股） | 235 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 152 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 19.5-37.17 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 83.15 | 市场表现 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 (%) 运机集团 沪深300 2025 年 09 月 02 日 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《运机集团（001288）：大额订 单保证业绩增长，矿山巡检机器人 实现应用》2025-05-06 2、《运机集团（001288）：业绩显 著增长，盈利能力明显提升》2024- 10-31 3、《运机集团（001288）：业务国 际化战略稳步推进，业绩有望持续 增长》2024-08-31 —运机集团（001288.SZ）公司事件点评报告 运机集团于 2025 年 8 月 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony sectors, indicating a positive outlook for these industries [12]. Core Views - The report highlights that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the upcoming domestic demand peak are expected to support the prices of precious metals, particularly gold and silver [4][5]. - It anticipates a strong demand season for copper and aluminum, with prices expected to rise due to supply constraints and seasonal demand [5][9]. - The report notes that tin prices are likely to show resilience due to tight supply conditions, while antimony prices are under pressure from weak demand [10][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) saw a 3.37% increase in the week from August 25 to August 29, outperforming the broader market [21]. - The top-performing sub-sectors included rare earths (+17.19%), tungsten (+14.70%), and silver (+12.45%) [21]. 2. Macroeconomic and Industry News - China's industrial profits for July showed a year-on-year decline of 1.5%, an improvement from the previous month's decline of 4.3% [27]. - The U.S. second-quarter core PCE price index was reported at 2.5%, aligning with expectations, indicating stable inflation [27]. 3. Precious Metals Market Data - London gold prices rose to $3,429.15 per ounce, an increase of $90.85 (2.72%) from August 21 [30]. - Silver prices also increased to $38.80 per ounce, up $1.24 (3.29%) [30]. 4. Industrial Metals Data - Copper prices on the LME closed at $9,875 per ton, up $150 (1.54%) from August 22 [41]. - Aluminum prices in China were reported at 20,720 yuan per ton, a slight decrease of 30 yuan [42]. 5. Industry Ratings and Investment Strategies - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony sectors, reflecting a favorable investment outlook [12]. - Specific stocks recommended include Zijin Mining, Zhongjin Gold, and Huaxi Securities among others [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [9]. Core Insights - The food and beverage industry shows resilience with a notable performance in the liquor sector, particularly for leading brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, which are expected to achieve stable growth [6][9]. - The new consumption sector is experiencing high demand, with individual company performances expected to steadily improve, driven by strong fundamentals [7][9]. - The report highlights the ongoing recovery in the mass consumer goods sector, with a focus on companies like Ximai Food and Youyou Food, which are expected to benefit from market dynamics [9]. Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector has shown a 1-month performance of 6.6%, a 3-month performance of 0.6%, and a 12-month performance of 13.1% [3]. - The liquor industry reported sales revenue of 330.42 billion yuan for the first half of the year [20]. - The report notes a 5.3% year-on-year increase in liquor industry revenue, totaling 796.4 billion yuan for 2024 [34]. Company Feedback - Kweichow Moutai is launching a high-end product, Moutai 1935, and continues to expand its cultural experience venues [20]. - Ximai Food reported a gross margin increase of 3 percentage points to 43.5% due to product structure optimization and lower raw material costs [58]. - Shede Liquor's net profit margin improved by 5 percentage points to 8.56% in Q2 2025, reflecting effective cost control measures [61]. Key Data Trends - The liquor industry's cumulative production for 2024 was 4.145 million tons, a decrease of 7.72% year-on-year [34]. - The seasoning industry is projected to grow from 259.5 billion yuan in 2014 to 687.1 billion yuan by 2024, with a CAGR of 10.23% [36]. - The snack food market is expected to grow from 0.82 trillion yuan in 2016 to 1.2 trillion yuan in 2022, with a CAGR of 6% [52].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [9] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the upcoming release of the iPhone 17 series, coinciding with the consumer electronics peak season, which may lead to a sequential improvement in performance [6][8] - The company has faced challenges in the first half of 2025, with a significant decline in revenue and net profit, attributed to a decrease in market share and adjustments in business structure [5][8] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 253.70 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.69%, and a net profit of 2.22 million yuan, down 43.98% year-on-year [4] - In Q2 2025, revenue was 126.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 26.52%, and net profit was 0.95 billion yuan, down 58.06% year-on-year [5] - The company’s gross margin for Q2 2025 was 4.76%, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.8 percentage points [5] Strategic Partnerships and Market Position - The company maintains long-term strategic partnerships with major brands like Apple, Honor, and Samsung, and has the largest number of self-operated Apple APR stores in China [8] - As of the first half of 2025, the company added 36 self-operated Apple APR stores, bringing the total to 236, solidifying its leading position in the APR channel [8] Earnings Forecast - The company’s projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 711.52 billion yuan, 782.67 billion yuan, and 853.12 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.54 yuan, 0.66 yuan, and 0.71 yuan [9][11]

3 2025 年 09 月 01 日 国产未来 10 年 AI 战略蓝图已现，国产 AI 算力 基建实现重大突破 推荐(维持) 投资要点 相关研究 1、《电子行业周报：DeepSeek 正式 发布新模型 V3.1，英伟达暂停 H20 芯片生产》2025-08-25 2、《电子行业周报：高端 AI 芯片 国产化势在必行，覆铜板厂商涨价 反映 PCB 产业链景气度高企》2025- 08-18 3、《电子行业周报：中芯国际发布 二季度财报，OpenAI 发布 GPT5》 分析师：吕卓阳 S1050523060001 lvzy@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 电子(申万) 24.0 44.8 88.3 沪深 300 8.3 17.1 35.4 市场表现 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 (%) 电子 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 2025-08-11 ▌上周回顾 8 月 25 日- 8 月 29 日当周，申万一级行业涨跌呈分化的态 势。其中电子行业上涨 6.28%，位列第 3 位。估值前三的行 业为计算机、国防军工、电子，电子行业市盈率为 70.91。 电子行 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [2][11] Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in H1 2025 performance, with a revenue of 5.272 billion yuan, up 25.64% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.107 billion yuan, up 55.79% year-on-year [5][11] - The company successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising approximately 3.1 billion HKD, which enhances its capital structure and supports future exploration and expansion [8][10] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company produced 6.75 tons of gold, a decrease of 10.56% year-on-year, with sales of 6.76 tons, down 10.91% year-on-year. The sales price increased by 41.42% to 699.95 yuan per gram [6] - The sales cost for gold in H1 2025 was 319.06 yuan per gram, up 11.78% year-on-year, while the all-in sustaining cost was 355.41 yuan per gram, up 34.28% year-on-year [6] - The company’s copper production in H1 2025 was 2,798.45 tons, an increase of 4.65% year-on-year, with a sales price of 69,718.53 yuan per ton, up 9.38% year-on-year [6] - The company’s net cash inflow from operating activities in H1 2025 was 1.613 billion yuan, up 12.39% year-on-year, primarily due to increased sales from rising gold prices [10] Future Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 11.105 billion yuan in 2025, 11.585 billion yuan in 2026, and 11.905 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 2.852 billion yuan, 3.225 billion yuan, and 3.463 billion yuan respectively [11][13]