2025 年 07 月 21 日 即时零售"反内卷"，短期爆发转向常态化布局 —食品饮料行业周报 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | 分析师：孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | --- | --- | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：张倩 | S1050124070037 | | zhangqian@cfsc.com.cn | | 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 食品饮料(申万) 1.3 -6.2 -0.7 沪深 300 5.5 7.6 14.7 市场表现 0 10 20 30 (%) 食品饮料 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -20 相关研究 1、《食品饮料行业周报：外卖大战 继续，中报窗口期将至》2025-07- 14 2、《食品饮料行业周报："外卖大 战"爆发，新式茶饮充分受益》 2025-07-06 3、《食品饮料行业周报：新茶饮经 营向好，餐饮链低位布局》2025- 06-30 ▌ 一周新闻速递 行业新闻：1）6 月酒饮茶制造业增加值同比增长 3.4%；2） 1-6 月白酒产量 191.6 万千升；3）中国连锁经营协会发布抵 制即时零售"内卷式 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 行业周报 出海正向循环，助推估值提升 医药行业周报 投资评级： 报告日期： 推荐 （ 维持 ） 2025年07月20日 分析师：胡博新 SAC编号：S1050522120002 分析师：吴景欢 SAC编号：S1050523070004 医 药 行 业 观 点 1. 创新正向循环逐步建立，支撑价值提升 创新出海是本轮创新药价值重估的重要推动因素，其价值的锚点在于BD估值水平的变化，尤其是PD-1/VEGF为代表的双抗。 从康方生物与SUMMIT THERAPEUTICS 的合作开始到6月2日，BMS与BioNTech达成一项超90亿美元的交易，海外MNC 对PD-1双抗的价值认知和交易金额在快速提高。根据医药魔方数据，2025H1中国相关交易总金额为608亿美元，较2024年 全年交易总金额高出37亿美元，同比增长129%，中国相关交易数量144笔，同比增加67%，单项交易金额提升显著。中国 新药授权出海交易的持续火热，有需求方面因素，MNC在专利悬崖的挑战下，亟需新的重磅品种的补充，供给方面，中国 的企业在双抗、ADC等持续取得领先优势。随着更多中国新药临床数据的读出，MNC对中国新药 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 行业周报 政策呵护，供需结构持续优化 新能源汽车行业周报 投资评级： （ ） 报告日期： 推荐 维持 2025年07月20日 ◼ 分析师：黎江涛 ◼ SAC编号：S1050521120002 投 资 要 点 政策呵护，供需结构持续优化。根据中汽协数据，新能源汽车方面，6月新能源汽车产销分别完成126.8万辆和132.9万辆，同 比分别增长26.4%和26.7%，新能源汽车新车销量达到汽车新车总销量的45.8%。1-6月，新能源汽车产销分别完成696.8万 辆和693.7万辆，同比分别增长41.4%和40.3%，新能源汽车新车销量达到汽车新车总销量的44.3%。供给端，电池及主机厂 新品不断推出，需求端反馈积极，政策也不断发力。价格层面，产业链历经价格大幅下行，资本开支不断收缩，供需格局不断 优化，行业协会、产业链公司均在积极优化产能与供给，力争价格保障企业盈利。整体而言，产业链价格处于底部，价格易涨 难跌，需求端韧性强劲，调整带来布局良机，产业链核心公司估值处于历史低水平，看好产业链优质公司。 行业评级及投资策略： 政策持续呵护，供给端部分企业开始收缩资本开支，供需结构在边际优化，20 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [4]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a significant growth in performance, with a projected net profit for H1 2025 ranging from 0.63 to 0.78 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 62% to 100% [4]. - The self-owned brand strategy is highlighted as a key driver for growth, particularly with the "Zhenjia" brand's flagship product, the scented laundry detergent, showing strong sales momentum [4][5]. - The company is focusing on enhancing brand recognition and expanding its product offerings, particularly in high-potential categories such as fabric softeners and nutritional supplements [5]. Summary by Sections Performance Forecast - The company anticipates a net profit of 0.36 to 0.51 billion yuan for Q2 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 36% to 94% [4]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.79, 1.21, and 1.66 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 67, 43, and 32 times [6]. Revenue and Profit Growth - The company's main revenue is forecasted to grow from 1.766 billion yuan in 2024 to 4.57 billion yuan by 2027, with growth rates of 29.3%, 68.0%, 27.7%, and 20.6% for the respective years [10]. - The net profit is expected to increase from 106 million yuan in 2024 to 362 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 94.6%, 62.9%, 53.9%, and 36.9% [10]. Brand Development - The "Zhenjia" brand has achieved a 150% year-on-year sales increase across all channels in Q1 2025, and a 458% increase in GMV on Douyin [5]. - The "Feicui" brand has rapidly gained traction since its launch in September 2024, becoming a top performer in its category on platforms like Tmall [5]. Financial Metrics - The report outlines a projected return on equity (ROE) increasing from 9.6% in 2024 to 20.8% in 2027, indicating improving profitability [10]. - The gross margin is expected to rise from 44.6% in 2024 to 50.2% in 2027, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency [10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][7]. Core Insights - The company has shown continuous growth in sales, with a revenue of 177.61 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.46%. The revenue breakdown includes 117.5 billion yuan from power products, 51.9 billion yuan from polymer materials, and 5.0 billion yuan from communication products [4]. - The company is expanding its market share in the polymer materials sector, with a current domestic market share of approximately 20%, up from about 15% in 2021. The production capacity for high-pressure insulation materials is expected to reach 60,000 tons after the completion of ongoing projects [5]. - The company has strategically positioned itself in the robotics cable market, becoming the largest supplier of robotics cables for KUKA in China and successfully entering new fields such as humanoid robots and robotic dogs [6]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 206.29 billion yuan, 240.68 billion yuan, and 281.33 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.53 yuan, 0.65 yuan, and 0.81 yuan, indicating a positive growth trajectory [7][9]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 177.61 billion yuan, a 17.46% increase year-on-year. The revenue from power products, polymer materials, and communication products was 117.5 billion yuan, 51.9 billion yuan, and 5.0 billion yuan, respectively [4]. Market Position and Expansion - The company has increased its market share in high-pressure insulation materials to about 20%. The production capacity is set to expand significantly with ongoing projects [5]. - The company has established a strong foothold in the robotics cable market, collaborating with major players and achieving significant sales milestones [6]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 206.29 billion yuan, 240.68 billion yuan, and 281.33 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. EPS is expected to grow from 0.53 yuan in 2025 to 0.81 yuan in 2027 [7][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [9] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.18 billion to 1.28 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20% to 30% [5] - The company's strong performance is driven by both domestic and international markets, with significant growth in its earthmoving machinery business due to favorable equipment renewal policies and recovering industry demand [5] - The management transition has not affected the company's market-oriented reforms, and ongoing incentive mechanisms are expected to drive long-term development [6] - The company's overseas business has shown high-quality growth, with revenue from international operations reaching 13.76 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.05% [7] - The company forecasts revenues of 34.86 billion, 39.66 billion, and 44.45 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.01, 1.43, and 1.94 yuan [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 1.18 billion to 1.28 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a growth rate of 20% to 30% compared to the same period in 2024 [5] - The expected net profit for 2025 is 2.04 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 53.7% [11] Market Dynamics - The domestic market benefits from equipment renewal policies and recovering demand, while the international market is supported by a comprehensive globalization strategy [5][7] - The company's overseas revenue accounted for 45.77% of total revenue in 2024, indicating a significant contribution from international operations [7] Management and Strategy - The management transition is expected to maintain the company's strategic direction and market-oriented operations, with a focus on enhancing profitability and shareholder returns [6] - The company has implemented a dual-track incentive mechanism combining market-based compensation and equity incentives to boost core team performance [6] Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued revenue growth, with projected revenues increasing from 34.86 billion yuan in 2025 to 44.45 billion yuan in 2027 [9] - The expected EPS growth reflects the company's strong operational performance and market positioning [9]

Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment score is 84, indicating an "overheated" market condition [2][10][21] - Historical trends show that when sentiment is below or near 30, the market tends to find support, while above 90, resistance is likely [10] Hot Themes Tracking - **Robotics Theme**: The government is promoting entrepreneurship, with significant contracts awarded for humanoid biped robots, totaling 124 million yuan. Related stocks include Wolong Electric Drive and Changsheng Bearing [7] - **RDA Theme**: The Shanghai Data Exchange has introduced the RDA paradigm, emphasizing the integration of real data assets with physical assets. Related stocks include Tongxingbao and Wanda Information [7] - **Innovative Pharmaceuticals Theme**: New measures from the National Healthcare Security Administration support the use of medical insurance data in drug development. Related stocks include Heng Rui Medicine and Betta Pharmaceuticals [7] Capital Flow Analysis - **Net Inflow**: The top ten stocks with the highest net inflow include Changshan Beiming and Runhe Software, with inflows of 201 million yuan and 93 million yuan respectively [11] - **Net Buy in Financing**: New Yi Sheng leads with a net buy of 56 million yuan, followed by Changshan Beiming with 34 million yuan [12] - **Net Outflow**: The top ten stocks with the highest net outflow include Zhongdian Port and ST Huatuo, with outflows of 51 million yuan and 39 million yuan respectively [13] Industry Insights - The computer and electronic sectors are currently attracting significant capital inflow, while industries like banking and environmental protection are experiencing net outflows [16][17][22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [9] Core Insights - The company has launched its second-generation flexible sensor products, showcasing significant advancements in sensitivity, durability, and multi-modal perception [5][6] - A strategic partnership with Zhaowei has been established, positioning the company as a key supplier for the new generation of bionic hands, enhancing its market presence [6][7] - The company has implemented a new equity incentive plan aimed at binding core R&D personnel, which reflects confidence in future growth and aims to stabilize the research team [8] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The current stock price is 32.12 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 9 billion yuan and a total share count of 280 million [1] Product Development - The second-generation electronic skin products have improved in three key dimensions: true flexibility across surfaces, integration of multiple physical modalities, and the ability to capture multi-directional forces [5][6] Strategic Partnerships - The collaboration with Zhaowei includes the application of the company's sensors in ZWHAND's new bionic hand series, enhancing the product's tactile sensing capabilities [6][7] Equity Incentive Plan - The new equity incentive plan involves granting 2.427 million restricted shares at a price of 15.64 yuan per share to 103 core employees, including key R&D personnel [8] Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 123 million yuan, 156 million yuan, and 219 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 72.9, 57.6, and 41.1 [9][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for China CNR Corporation Limited (601766.SH) [1] Core Views - The railway investment sector is experiencing high prosperity, driving steady performance for the company [5] - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with estimates ranging from 67.22 billion to 75.62 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 60% to 80% [4] - The company’s new industry segment, particularly in clean energy equipment, is becoming a crucial growth driver, with revenues from this segment reaching 863 billion yuan in 2024 [6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The railway transportation industry is maintaining a high level of prosperity, with passenger and freight volumes projected to grow by 4.9% and 1.1% respectively in 2025 [5] - The demand for maintenance of high-speed trains is surging, with new orders for train sales reaching 602 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 162.48% [5] Business Structure Optimization - The company’s new industry segment, excluding rail transit components, has established clean energy equipment as a key growth area, with strong order growth expected in 2025 [6] - The global rail transit industry is recovering steadily, supported by policies promoting green and low-carbon development [6] Profitability and Financial Forecast - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 48.671 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.23%, with net profit soaring to 30.53 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 202.79% [8] - The company forecasts revenues of 266.79 billion, 283.37 billion, and 299.71 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.47, 0.52, and 0.56 yuan [9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [7]. Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from the dual drivers of new energy and intelligent manufacturing, with steady expansion across multiple business areas [3]. - The demand for electric heating components is expected to grow significantly due to the rapid increase in new energy vehicle production and sales, which are projected to reach 12.89 million units in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 34.4% [3]. - The company has established itself as a primary supplier of thermal management systems for new energy vehicles, leveraging various heating technologies to meet the green and low-carbon trends [3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock performance is compared against the CSI 300 index, indicating a positive trend [2]. Business Dynamics - In 2024, the company's revenue from electric heating components for new energy vehicles reached 157 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.95%, with a gross margin of 31.61% [4]. - The production volume of electric heating components for new energy vehicles reached 3.05 million units, a 90.63% increase year-on-year, while the shipment volume was 2.52 million units, up 45.66% year-on-year [4]. - The company has deepened collaborations with several global clients, enhancing its international and diversified customer base [4]. Capacity and Profitability - The company has established production capacity in Zhejiang and Thailand, utilizing flexible manufacturing and automation to improve delivery capabilities [5]. - The gross margin for the electric heating components business improved to 30.72% in 2024, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from 2023, with net profit growing by 19.90% year-on-year [5]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 454 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.56%, and a net profit of 68.82 million yuan, up 20.54% year-on-year [5]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.122 billion yuan, 2.340 billion yuan, and 2.554 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.90 yuan, 1.04 yuan, and 1.17 yuan for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 23.5, 20.2, and 18.0 [7][9].