Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the copper industry [10]. Core Insights - The production of major copper-producing countries, Chile and Peru, has shown mixed results, with Chile's production slightly increasing and Peru's production recovering after a decline in 2024 [4][18]. - The overall production from twelve overseas copper mining companies has decreased, with significant declines noted in Freeport and Glencore due to operational disruptions [5][66]. - Future new or expanded copper mining projects are limited, indicating a potential supply constraint in the coming years [8][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Copper Production from Major Producing Countries - Chile's copper production for January to September 2025 reached 3.972 million metric tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.1% [4][18]. - Peru's copper production during the same period was 2.048 million metric tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.58% [4][18]. - The increase in Chile's production is primarily attributed to the Escondida project, while Peru's growth is driven by Las Bambas and Toromocho projects [4][18]. 2. Overseas Copper Mining Companies' Production - The total copper production from fifteen major copper mining companies in the first three quarters of 2025 was 9.3231 million metric tons, a slight increase of 0.36% year-on-year [5][43]. - Excluding three Chinese companies, the twelve overseas companies reported a total production of 7.5641 million metric tons, a decrease of 2.42% year-on-year [5][43]. - Freeport and Glencore experienced significant production declines of 13.61% and 17.26%, respectively, due to operational issues [5][66]. 3. Future Project Developments - There are few new or expanded copper mining projects anticipated, with notable projects like Codelco's Rajo Inca and First Quantum's Kansanshi expansion expected to contribute limited additional supply [8][9]. - Long-term projects such as Rio Tinto's Oyu Tolgoi are in ramp-up phases, with expected production increases by 2028 [9].

2025 年 12 月 17 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：35 分（较冷） 最近一年大盘走势 25 (%) 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 ▌ 风险提示 宏观经济意外下滑、地缘政治风险、流动性收紧超预期、行 业政策低于预期。 相关研究 | 1、《双融日报》2025-12-16 | | --- | | 2、《双融日报》2025-12-15 | | 3、《双融日报》2025-12-12 | ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（较冷） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 35 分，市场情绪处于"较冷"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：液冷、银行、券商 1、液冷主题：第五届国际 AIDC 液冷产业链千人大会暨全球 数据中心液冷市场趋势研讨会将于 12 月 18 日至 19 日举行。 近年来国际 AI 领域的主要企业正加速转向液冷技术应用。例 如，英伟达在去年发布的 B100 与 H200 芯片上，已正式将散 热方案从传统风 ...

2025 年 12 月 16 日 MistraiAI 发布 Devstral2 系列，GPT-5.2 定义 专家级智能 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：任春阳 S1050521110006 rency@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 计算机(申万) -3.8 -10.8 6.1 沪深 300 -1.6 0.6 16.4 市场表现 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 (%) 计算机 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《计算机行业周报：DeepSeek 发 布 V3.2 双模型，谷歌 DeepThink 引 领推理革命》2025-12-08 2 、《计算机行业周报： ClaudeOpus4.5 发布， DeepSeekMath-V2 重磅开源》2025- 12-01 3、《计算机行业点评报告：小马智 行（PONY.O）：商业化里程碑确 立，跨城深耕与全球布局双驱》 2025-11-29 ▌ 算 力 ： 算 力 租 赁 价 格 平 稳 ， MistraiAI 发 布 Devstral2 系列 2025 年 12 月 10 日，MistralAI 发布了专为 ...

2025 年 12 月 16 日 获人形机器人项目订单，开辟轻量化新兴应用市 场 买入(维持) 事件 分析师：林子健 S1050523090001 linzj@cfsc.com.cn | 基本数据 | 2025-12-15 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 11.05 | | 总市值（亿元） | 101 | | 总股本（百万股） | 918 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 918 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 6.24-12.41 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 359.99 | 市场表现 -20 0 20 40 60 80 (%) 模塑科技 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《模塑科技（000700）：2025Q3 净利润短期承压，新项目定点奠定 未来成长基本盘》2025-11-18 2、《模塑科技（000700）：盈利能 力逐步修复，密集获得大客户项目 定点》2025-08-26 —模塑科技（000700.SZ）公司事件点评报告 模塑科技与国内某机器人公司签订了零部件采购协议，正式 接到客户发出的人形机器人外覆盖件小批量采购订单。 公司在国内豪华车外 ...

2025 年 12 月 16 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 | 1、《双融日报》2025-12-15 | | --- | | 2、《双融日报》2025-12-12 | | 3、《双融日报》2025-12-11 | ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（中性） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 58 分，市场情绪处于"中性"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：有色金属、银行、券商 1、有色金属主题：美元降息提振需求预期，AI 数据中心拉 动边际增量。铜：金融属性叠加矿端紧张、冶炼厂减产，传 统需求韧性+AI 拉动，价格中枢上移。铝：国内产能见顶、 海外增量有限，十五五开局紧平衡强化。相关标的：紫金矿 业（601899）、中国铝业（601600） 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：58 分（中性） 2、银行主题：银行股具有高股息特性，如中证银行指数的股 息率高达 6.02%，显著高于 10 ...

政策定调提质增效，助力 2026 年 A 股盈利驱动 行情 —点评报告 事件 中央经济工作会议 12 月 10 日至 11 日在北京举行。会议分析 当前经济形势，部署 2026 年经济工作。 投资要点 2025 年 12 月 15 日 ▌ 政策聚焦提质增效，发展质量重要性凸显 2025 年中央经济工作会议整体基调延续"稳中有进"的表 述，提出五个新"必须"，"以进促稳"替换为"提质增 效"，从增量扩张转为存量提质增效，在保障经济合理增长 的同时，强调发展质量的提升，物价合理回升，产业向新向 优。 ▌ 物价有望合理回升，结构盈利修复可期 宏观层面，政策组合发力助推 2026 年物价合理回升。预计 2026 年 PPI 同比降幅稳步收窄直至转正，物价回升前景可 期。 中观层面，三大支撑助力 2026 年企业盈利修复：①新质生产 力逐步成为经济增长新引擎：中央经济工作会议明确"加紧 培育壮大新动能"，2026 年新兴产业的增长弹性会进一步凸 显；②反内卷政策有望进一步深化提速：现阶段反内卷已在 光伏、锂矿、化工等局部产业环节初有成效，后续伴随政策 表述转向"深入整治"，反内卷政策有望在多个重点行业加 速推进，逐步解 ...

行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 电力设备(申万) -6.0 8.5 36.0 沪深 300 -1.0 1.1 16.5 市场表现 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 (%) 电力设备 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 2025 年 12 月 15 日 博通甲骨文业绩引市场波动，AI 缺电持续演绎 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | 分析师：傅鸿浩 | S1050521120004 | | --- | --- | | fuhh@cfsc.com.cn | | | 分析师：臧天律 | S1050522120001 | | zangtl@cfsc.com.cn | | 相关研究 1、《电力设备行业周报：英伟达预 警 AI 能源危机，国产电力设备迎北 美突破性机遇》2025-12-08 2、《电力设备行业周报：工信部推 进电池反内卷，机器人整机密集启 动 IPO》2025-12-01 3、《电力设备行业周报：全栈式软 硬件构筑谷歌 AI 生态护城河，关注 产业链公司投资机遇》2025-11-23 ▌ 博通甲骨文业绩引市场波动，AI 缺电持续演绎 周五晚上随着博通和甲骨文相继引发市场对 AI 泡沫的担忧， ...

2025 年 12 月 15 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：61 分（较热） 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 | 1、《双融日报》2025-12-12 | | --- | | 2、《双融日报》2025-12-11 | | 3、《双融日报》2025-12-10 | 今日热点主题：有色金属、银行、券商 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（较热） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 61 分，市场情绪处于"较热"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1 ▌ 热点主题追踪 1、有色金属主题：美元降息提振需求预期，AI 数据中心拉 动边际增量。铜：金融属性叠加矿端紧张、冶炼厂减产，传 统需求韧性+AI 拉动，价格中枢上移。铝：国内产能见顶、 海外增量有限，十五五开局紧平衡强化。相关标的：紫金矿 业（601899）、中国铝业（601600） 2、银行主题：银行股具有高股息特性，如中证银行指数的股 息率高达 6.02%，显著高于 10 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall macro - policy aims to stabilize the macro - leverage ratio. The liability growth rate of the real - sector is expected to decline in December 2025, and the government debt growth rate is also expected to continue to fall. - The economic situation on the asset side is weak, with the physical quantity data in October weaker than that in September. It is necessary to focus on when the economy will stabilize and pick up. - The stock - bond ratio is in an interval - shock state, currently with risk - preference at the upper limit of the interval and trending downward later. The stock - bond ratio is in favor of bonds, and the equity style is in favor of value [17][19][22]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Asset Balance Sheet Analysis - **Liability Side**: In November 2025, the liability growth rate of the real - sector was 8.7%, the same as the previous value, and it is expected to drop to around 8.5% in December. The government debt growth rate was 13.1% at the end of November, and is expected to fall to around 12.5% in December. The capital market was basically stable last week, mainly due to the renewal of 750 billion special treasury bonds on the 12th, with a high probability of subsequent marginal convergence [17][18]. - **Fiscal Policy**: The net increase of government bonds last week was 298.1 billion yuan, higher than the planned net decrease of 510.2 billion yuan. It is planned that the government bonds will have a net decrease of 119.2 billion yuan next week [2][18]. - **Monetary Policy**: Last week, the capital trading volume and price increased on a weekly average basis, and the term spread was stable. The one - year treasury bond yield fluctuated narrowly, closing at 1.39% on the weekend. The term spread between the ten - year and one - year treasury bonds was stable at 45 basis points. The yield fluctuation ranges of the ten - year and thirty - year treasury bonds are expected to be around 1.6% - 1.9% and 1.8% - 2.3% respectively [2][18]. - **Asset Side**: The physical quantity data in October was weaker than that in September. The annual real economic growth target in 2025 is about 5%, and the nominal economic growth target is about 4.9%. It is necessary to observe whether 5% will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [3][19]. 3.2 Stock - Bond Ratio and Stock - Bond Style - **Economic Cycle**: Since 2011, China has entered a period of declining potential economic growth, which seems to have ended in the fourth quarter of 2024. The government put forward three policy goals in 2016, and currently the liability - side convergence has not ended but the space is limited [6][20]. - **Overseas Situation**: China and the US are in a state of equal - power competition. If the valuation of the US technology field is re - evaluated, global funds may flow to China. It is necessary to focus on whether the RMB exchange rate will enter an appreciation channel [6][21]. - **Market Performance**: Last week, the capital market was stable, with stocks and bonds rising slightly, and the equity style shifting to growth - dominance. The bond yields at both long - and short - ends declined slightly, and the stock - bond ratio was in favor of bonds [7][21]. - **Investment Recommendation**: It is recommended to allocate long - term bonds and value - type equity assets. This week, it is recommended to allocate the Shanghai Composite 50 Index (80% position) and the 30 - year treasury bond ETF (20% position) [8][22]. 3.3 Industry Recommendation - **Industry Performance Review**: This week, A - shares fell on heavy volume. Among the Shenwan primary industries, communication, national defense and military industry, electronics, machinery, and power equipment had the largest increases, while coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, steel, real estate, and textile and clothing had the largest declines [30]. - **Industry Crowding and Trading Volume**: As of December 12, the top five crowded industries were electronics, power equipment, communication, machinery, and computers, while the bottom five were beauty care, comprehensive, petroleum and petrochemicals, steel, and coal. The trading volume of the whole A - shares rebounded this week, with the trading volume of some industries increasing and that of some industries decreasing [31][34]. - **Industry Valuation and Earnings**: This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, the PE (TTM) of communication, electronics, national defense and military industry, machinery, and comprehensive increased the most, while that of coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, steel, real estate, and textile and clothing decreased the most. Industries with high 2024 full - year earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations include banks, securities, insurance, etc. [37][38]. - **Industry Prosperity**: Externally, the demand is declining marginally, with the global manufacturing PMI falling and the export growth rates of some countries fluctuating. Domestically, the second - hand housing price fell last week, and quantity indicators showed mixed trends [42]. - **Public Offering Market Review**: In the second week of December, most active public - offering equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. As of December 12, the net asset value of active public - offering equity funds increased slightly compared with that in Q4 2024 [60]. - **Industry Recommendation**: In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio is only slightly in favor of equities, and the value style is more likely to dominate. A recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 13 stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 stocks, mainly concentrated in industries such as banks, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [9][65].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the automotive industry and humanoid robotics sector [2][4][6]. Core Insights - The humanoid robotics sector is expected to reach a pivotal point in the next one to two years, with significant advancements anticipated in the field of embodied intelligence [3][4]. - The automotive industry has achieved record monthly production and sales figures, with a notable increase in the production of new energy vehicles [5][6]. Summary by Sections Humanoid Robotics Sector - The Huaxin humanoid robotics index decreased by 0.94% this week, but has a cumulative return of 94.3% year-to-date [16]. - The sensor segment within the humanoid robotics sector showed positive performance, increasing by 1.1%, while other segments like actuators and reducers experienced declines [19]. - Key companies in the robotics sector, such as Zhongjian Technology and Zhongding Shares, saw significant stock price increases [24]. Automotive Sector - The CITIC automotive index rose by 0.1%, outperforming the broader market by 0.2% [32]. - The motorcycle and other segments within the automotive sector performed well, with a 1.6% increase, while automotive sales and services dropped by 3.5% [35]. - The automotive industry's PE ratio is at 31.8, placing it in the 36.4% percentile over the past four years, indicating a relatively stable valuation [48]. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - Recommended companies include: - New Spring Co., Ltd. (EPS: 0.68, PE: 16.22, Rating: Buy) [8] - Shuanglin Co., Ltd. (EPS: 1.24, PE: 30.45, Rating: Buy) [8] - Jianghuai Automobile (EPS: 0.12, PE: 412.83, Rating: Buy) [8] - Other notable mentions include KaiDi Co., Ltd. and Kete Co., Ltd. [7][10].