2025 年 10 月 31 日 业绩稳健增长，布局灵巧手微链技术 —征和工业（003033.SZ）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 2025 年 10 月 30 日，征和工业发布 2025 年三季度报告。 2025 年前三季度公司实现营收 13.90 亿元，同比增长 5.24%； 归母净利润 1.33 亿元，同比增长 35.70%；扣非净利润 1.06 亿元，同比增长 14.98%。其中 2025 年 Q3 公司实现营收 4.85 亿元，同比增长 1.80%；归母净利润 0.44 亿元，同比增长 14.65%；扣非净利润 0.43 亿元，同比增长 16.19%。 投资要点 ▌营收利润稳步提升，现金流大幅改善 2025 年 Q3 公司实现营业收入 4.85 亿元，同比增长 1.80%；归 母净利润 0.44 亿元，同比增长 14.65%。前三季度公司营业收 入/归母净利润/扣非净利润分别为 13.90/1.33/1.06 亿元， 同比+5.24%/+35.70%/+14.98%。业绩整体稳健，利润增长势 头强劲。 盈 利 能 力 层 面 ， 公 司 前 三 季 度 毛 利 率 / 净利率分别为 22.80 ...

2025 年 10 月 31 日 研 究 报 告 Q3 盈利增速亮眼，B 端业务成增长核心 —合合信息（688615.SH）公司事件点评报告 买入(首次) 事件 分析师：任春阳 S1050521110006 rency@cfsc.com.cn 2025 年 10 月 30 日，合合信息发布 2025 年三季报。 2025 年 Q3 公司实现营收 4.60 亿元，同比增加 27.49%；归母 净利润 1.16 亿元元，同比增加 34.93%；扣非净利润 0.98 亿 元，同比增加 33.97%。前三季度公司实现总营收 13.03 亿 元，同比增加 24.22%；归母净利润 3.51 亿元，同比增加 14.55%；扣非净利润 3.10 亿元，同比增加 11.09%。 投资要点 ▌前三季度营收利润双增，Q3 盈利增速亮眼 2025 年前三季度公司实现营业收入/归母净利润/扣非净利润 分别为 13.03 亿 元 /3.51 亿 元 /3.10 亿元，同比 +24.22%/+14.55%/+11.09%。其中 Q3 公司实现营收 4.60 亿 元，同比增加 27.49%；归母净利润 1.16 亿元元，同比增加 34.9 ...

2025 年 10 月 31 日 确收错期扰动费率，自有品牌强势放量 买入(维持) 事件 | 分析师：孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | --- | --- | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：张倩 | S1050124070037 | | zhangqian@cfsc.com.cn | | | 基本数据 | 2025-10-30 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 41.33 | | 总市值（亿元） | 129 | | 总股本（百万股） | 311 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 226 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 14.45-79.21 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 362.29 | 市场表现 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 (%) 若羽臣 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《若羽臣（003010）：自有品牌 放量，盈利能力优化》2025-08-20 2、《若羽臣（003010）：业绩高速 增长，自有品牌放量》2025-07-18 —若羽臣（003010.SZ）公司事件点评报告 ...

2025 年 10 月 31 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：49 分（中性） 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（中性） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 49 分，市场情绪处于"中性"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：户外运动、光刻胶、储能 1、户外运动主题：国家发展改革委等六部门发布通知，拟将 "北京市平谷区金海湖户外运动目的地"等 49 个地区纳入首 批高质量户外运动目的地建设名单，予以重点支持。此次建 设并非试点示范或挂牌命名，而是聚焦资源禀赋好、基础扎 实的区域，精准配套政策、资金、项目，打造标杆、以点带 面，带动全国户外运动产业提质升级，进一步满足人民群众 多层次、多样化的户外运动和美好生活需要。相关标的：三 夫户外(002780)、影石创新(688775) 2、光刻胶主题：据科技日报，近日，北京大学化学与分子工 程学院彭海琳教授团队及合 ...

AI 业务增长发力，盈利能力优化提速 —能科科技（603859.SH）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 分析师：任春阳 S1050521110006 rency@cfsc.com.cn | 基本数据 | 2025-10-30 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 44.12 | | 总市值（亿元） | 108 | | 总股本（百万股） | 245 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 245 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 20.58-53.02 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 513.05 | 市场表现 -50 0 50 100 150 200 (%) 能科科技 沪深300 2025 年 10 月 30 日 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《能科科技（603859）：AI 业务 表现亮眼，持续深耕工业 AI 领域》 2025-08-27 2、《能科科技（603859）：全面深 耕工业 AI，"AllinAI"战略彰显公 司决心》2025-08-08 2025 年 10 月 27 日，能科科技发布 2025 年三季报。 2025 年 Q3 公司实现营收 3.51 亿元，同 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [8] Core Insights - The company has demonstrated steady revenue growth, with total operating income for Q1-Q3 2025 reaching 3.145 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 248 million yuan, up 22% year-on-year [4][8] - The company is focusing on cost control and efficiency improvements, with a reduction in sales and management expense ratios, leading to a net profit margin of 7.03% [5][8] - The core supermarket business remains stable, with significant growth in frozen baked goods and a positive market response to high-end cream products [6][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, total operating income was 1.075 billion yuan, a 15% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 77 million yuan, up 14% year-on-year [4][6] - The company expects to see continued improvement in profitability due to enhanced cost control and the release of scale effects [7][8] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts EPS for 2025-2027 to be 1.92, 2.32, and 2.70 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 22, 18, and 16 times [8][10] - Projected revenue growth rates for 2025-2027 are 15.0%, 12.3%, and 10.0% respectively, with net profit growth rates of 21.2%, 20.8%, and 16.6% [10][11] Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively expanding its product offerings and enhancing its market presence through new product launches and improved customer engagement strategies [6][7] - The focus on high-end cream products is expected to strengthen the company's competitive position in the market [6][8]

2025 年 10 月 30 日 大健康战略顺利推进，利润表现超预期 —西麦食品（002956.SZ）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 2025 年 10 月 29 日，西麦食品发布 2025 年三季报，2025Q1- Q3 总营业收入 16.96 亿元（同增 18%），归母净利润 1.32 亿 元（同增 22%），扣非净利润 1.27 亿元（同增 43%）。其中 2025Q3 总营业收入 5.47 亿元（同增 19%），归母净利润 0.51 亿元（同增 21%），扣非净利润 0.49 亿元（同增 86%）。 投资要点 ▌成本延续下行通道，费用管控效果显著 公司 2025Q3 毛利率同增 1pct 至 43.75%，主要系产品结构优 化、澳麦原粮成本下降所致，公司已锁定全年原料价格，且 年底供货商询价来看，成本仍处下降通道，预计后续毛利率 持续兑现，销售费用率同减 2pct 至 27.11%，主要系电商费 投收窄所致，管理费用率同减 1pct 至 5.08%，主要系经营效 率提升叠加规模效应释放所致，净利率同增 0.1pct 至 9.31%，盈利能力稳步优化。 ▌药食同源反馈积极，电商渠道利润改善 产品端 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for Tesla (TSLA.O) [11] Core Insights - Tesla's Q3 2025 total revenue reached $28.095 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12%, while net profit decreased by 37% to $1.389 billion [4][5] - The energy business showed significant growth with a revenue increase of 44%, while automotive revenue growth slowed to 6% [5] - The company is facing pressure on profit margins due to rising operational costs and pricing strategies, despite maintaining strong cash flow [9][11] Revenue and Profitability - Total revenue for Q3 2025 was $28.095 billion, with automotive sales contributing $21.205 billion, reflecting a 6% year-on-year growth [5][6] - Energy generation and storage revenue reached $3.415 billion, marking a 44% increase [5] - The gross margin for the quarter was approximately 18%, slightly lower than the previous year, influenced by cost pressures [5][9] Automotive Sales and Costs - Automotive sales revenue increased from $18.831 billion in Q4 2024 to $20.359 billion in Q3 2025, a growth of about 8% [6] - The cost of automotive sales was $17.365 billion, indicating ongoing cost challenges despite efforts to optimize production and logistics [6] FSD and Deferred Revenue - Deferred revenue related to Full Self-Driving (FSD) reached $3.83 billion as of September 30, 2025, up from $3.60 billion at the end of 2024, indicating a strong future revenue source [8] - The company anticipates recognizing $880 million of this deferred revenue within the next 12 months [8] Operational Expansion and Cash Flow - Tesla's operational expansion led to a 57% increase in R&D expenses to $1.630 billion, and a 32% rise in selling, general, and administrative expenses to $1.562 billion [9][10] - Despite these increases, operating cash flow remained robust at $10.934 billion for the nine months [9] AI Strategy - R&D expenses for AI and related projects significantly increased, with total AI infrastructure assets reaching $6.621 billion [10] - The company is integrating its AI chip design team, incurring $238 million in restructuring costs [10]

Interest Rate Changes - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark overnight borrowing rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4% with a 10 to 2 vote[2] - The end of Quantitative Tightening (QT) is set for December 1[2] - There is significant internal disagreement within the Fed regarding the pace of rate cuts, with one member advocating for a 50 basis point cut[3] Future Rate Outlook - Powell indicated that a rate cut in December is not guaranteed, as inflation remains resilient and non-farm payroll data shows a cooling trend[4] - The Fed may lean towards a slower pace of rate cuts in December due to data uncertainties[4] Market Reactions - The market reacted to the hawkish tone of the Fed, with U.S. Treasury yields and rate cut expectations declining, while the dollar strengthened and gold prices fell[6] - CME's expectations for a December rate cut have decreased to around 67%[6] Economic Conditions - Current credit market conditions are deemed to have no systemic risks, and AI continues to support stock market performance, boosting sentiment in U.S. equities[5] - The U.S. economy is experiencing stagflation, with a divide between booming AI investments and sluggish low-end consumer spending[6] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to look for opportunities in low-end consumer stocks like DLTR amidst ongoing government shutdowns and the suspension of food stamps[6] - For U.S. Treasuries, there are opportunities to go long around a yield of approximately 4.2%[8]

Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment score is 82, indicating an "overheated" market condition. Historical trends suggest that when the sentiment score is below or close to 50, the market tends to receive support, while scores above 90 may indicate resistance [5][9]. Hot Themes Tracking - **Outdoor Sports Theme**: The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments have announced support for 49 regions, including Beijing's Pinggu District, to become high-quality outdoor sports destinations. This initiative aims to enhance the outdoor sports industry nationwide. Related stocks include Sanfu Outdoor (002780) and Yingshi Innovation (688775) [5]. - **Photoresist Theme**: A team from Peking University has made significant advancements in understanding the microscopic 3D structure of photoresist molecules, which could lead to reduced defects in the industry. Related stocks include Jingrui Electric Materials (300655) and Nanda Optoelectronics (300346) [5]. - **Energy Storage Theme**: The "New Energy Storage Special Action Plan" aims for 180 million kilowatts of installed capacity by 2027, attracting 250 billion yuan in direct investment. Policies are expected to enhance project IRR to over 8%. Overseas orders have surged by 220% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reaching 160 GWh. Related stocks include CATL (300750) and Sungrow Power Supply (300274) [5]. Capital Flow Analysis - The top ten stocks with the highest net inflow include: - Shanzigaoke (000981.SZ): 201,990.87 million yuan - Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ): 146,500.08 million yuan - XianDao Intelligent (300450.SZ): 120,383.08 million yuan - CATL (300750.SZ): 119,869.80 million yuan [10]. - The top ten stocks with the highest net outflow include: - ZTE Corporation (000063.SZ): -172,042.08 million yuan - Xinyi Development (300502.SZ): -72,782.80 million yuan - Yingxin Development (000620.SZ): -65,588.02 million yuan [12]. Industry Performance - The top industries by net inflow include: - SW Electric Equipment: 944,099 million yuan - SW Banking: 155,618 million yuan - SW Non-ferrous Metals: 117,352 million yuan [15]. - The top industries by net outflow include: - SW Electronic: -351,915 million yuan - SW Communication: -416,268 million yuan - SW Defense and Military: -254,682 million yuan [20].