Market Overview - The A-share market saw significant declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 6.62% to 3258.86 points, the Shenzhen Component down 8.15% to 10557.81 points, and the ChiNext Index down 10.59% to 2280.10 points[1][6]. - Total trading volume in the A-share market reached 29,665.53 billion yuan[1][6]. ETF and Market Trends - Over 800 billion yuan has flowed into the A-share market through ETFs this year, highlighting their growing importance as a liquidity source and stabilizing factor for equity assets[1]. - The Wind All A Index fell by 7.46% to 4899.65 points, while the CSI 300 Index decreased by 7.05% to 3955.98 points[1][8]. Sector Performance - The top-performing concept indices included the GPU Index (up 4.23%) and the MCU Chip Index (up 0.72%), while the FinTech Index fell by 0.14%[1][10]. - Among the Shenwan industry sectors, the largest declines were seen in Beauty Care (-13.16%), Media (-11.00%), and Electric Equipment (-10.95%)[1][10]. Market Sentiment - The number of stocks that rose significantly decreased to 294, down from 5,024 the previous day, while the number of stocks that fell surged to 5,039, up from 291[1][13]. - The number of stocks hitting the daily limit down increased to 962, compared to just 5 the previous day[1][13].

Market Overview - The major indices experienced a strong rebound after four consecutive monthly declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index rising by 17.39% and 26.13% respectively in September[6] - The stock market's trading volume exceeded 1 trillion CNY for four consecutive trading days at the end of September, reaching 26,114.91 billion CNY on September 30[6] - The Federal Reserve's 50 basis point rate cut provided significant policy space for China, leading to a substantial recovery in equity market sentiment[1] Fund Issuance and Performance - In September, 86 public funds were established, raising a total of 87.088 billion CNY, a significant increase of 34.527 billion CNY from the previous month[11] - Equity funds accounted for the highest proportion of issuance this year, with stock, mixed, and bond funds comprising 28.88%, 2.87%, and 65.10% respectively[11] - The average issuance size of stock funds rose to 680 million CNY, while bond funds saw an average issuance size of 2.577 billion CNY[11] Sector Positioning - Active equity funds increased their positions in the power equipment, new energy, computer, and machinery sectors, while reducing exposure to electronics, coal, and oil and petrochemical sectors over the past month[15] - The report suggests that small-cap stocks represented by the CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 indices may see a rebound as the market continues to evolve[1] Risk Factors - The analysis is based on historical public information and may be subject to sample changes, which could introduce analysis bias[1] - Historical performance of funds does not guarantee future results, and there is a risk of model failure in quantitative analysis[1]

Economic Growth and Industrial Performance - In August, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 4.5% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The profit growth of industrial enterprises in August was -17.8%, a decline of 21.9 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by high temperature and seasonal factors[10] - Fixed asset investment from January to August increased by 3.4% year-on-year, with real estate investment down by 10.2%[13] Trade and Consumption Trends - In August, China's exports amounted to $308.65 billion, with a growth rate of 8.7%, while imports grew only by 0.5%, leading to a trade surplus of $91.02 billion[18] - Retail sales of consumer goods in August increased by 2.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from July[15] - The share of county and rural retail sales in total retail sales rose to 38%, up by 0.7 percentage points from the previous year[15] Price Indices and Inflation - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August rose by 0.6% year-on-year, with food prices increasing by 2.8%[22] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) recorded a year-on-year decline of 1.8%, marking the 23rd consecutive month of negative growth for production materials[26] Financial and Policy Environment - The total social financing in August increased by 30.31 billion yuan, but the year-on-year growth rate fell to 8.1%[33] - The central bank's net cash withdrawal in the first nine months of the year reached 12,809 billion yuan, indicating a tightening liquidity environment[37] - Government budget revenue from January to August was 147,776 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 2.6%[40]

Employment Data - In September, the U.S. added 254,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 144,000, marking the largest increase since March[1] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. fell to 4.1%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, continuing a two-month downward trend[8] - The broader U6 unemployment rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 7.7%[8] Wage Growth - Year-on-year wage growth in September rose to 4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points[10] - Month-on-month wage growth was 0.4%, slightly down from the previous value[10] Economic Outlook - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November is now at 86.6%, with a 13.4% chance of no cut[13] - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for September was recorded at 47.2%, indicating continued contraction for six months[15] - The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 54.9%, reflecting expansion for three consecutive months[17] International Trade - South Korea's exports grew by 7.5% year-on-year in September, while imports increased by 2%, resulting in a trade surplus of approximately $6.7 billion[21] - Semiconductor exports from South Korea maintained over 25% growth but showed a decline of 16 percentage points compared to the previous period[21] Market Sentiment - The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the U.S. improved from -0.8 to 14.3, indicating a positive shift in economic expectations[23]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Insights - The manufacturing PMI increased to 49.8% in September from 49.1% in August, indicating an improvement in economic sentiment[1] - New orders index rose by 1 percentage point to 49.9%, ending a five-month decline[4] - High-tech manufacturing PMI reached 53.0%, up 1.3 percentage points, while equipment manufacturing PMI rose to 52.0%, up 0.8 percentage points[4] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing PMI fell to 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, remaining at the critical threshold[1] - Construction PMI slightly increased to 50.7%, while service sector PMI decreased to 49.9%[11] - New orders index for non-manufacturing dropped to 44.2%, down 2.1 percentage points from August[11] Group 3: Economic Risks and Trends - Risks include potential delays in policy implementation, slow global economic recovery, and insufficient effective domestic demand[1] - The production index in manufacturing rose to 51.2%, indicating a positive outlook for production activities[4] - Employment index in non-manufacturing decreased to 44.7%, reflecting a continuous decline in hiring sentiment[11]

Profit Growth Trends - From January to August 2024, the cumulative year-on-year profit growth rate of industrial enterprises fell to 0.5%, a decrease of 3.1 percentage points from the previous month[1] - In August 2024, the year-on-year profit growth rate for industrial enterprises was -17.8%, down 21.9 percentage points from July[4] - Among 41 major industrial categories, 29 reported year-on-year profit growth, indicating over 70% of industries experienced positive growth[4] Sector Performance - Foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan enterprises saw profit growth rates of 6.9% and 2.6%, respectively, while state-owned and joint-stock enterprises recorded declines of 1.3%[4] - The mining sector's profit decline narrowed to -9.2%, while manufacturing and utilities saw profit growth rates of 1.1% and 14.7%, respectively[4] - The equipment manufacturing sector benefited from strong industrial exports, with a profit growth rate of 3.2% from January to August 2024[4] Revenue and Inventory Insights - The cumulative year-on-year revenue growth rate for industrial enterprises was 2.4%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous period[6] - As of the end of August, the inventory of finished industrial products grew by 5.1% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[6] Financial Health Indicators - The asset-liability ratio for industrial enterprises remained at 57.6% for three consecutive months, indicating a stable financial position[6] - Accounts receivable increased by 8.4% year-on-year, with the average collection period extending to 66.8 days, reflecting a historically high level[6] Risk Factors - Key risks include insufficient effective domestic demand, slower-than-expected economic recovery, and potential delays in policy implementation[7]

Group 1: US Economic Indicators - The US PCE price index increased by 2.2% year-on-year in August, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous value, marking the lowest level since February 2021[5] - Core PCE rose by 2.7% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous value, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, the lowest since May this year[5] - Personal consumption expenditures and personal income both grew by 0.2% month-on-month in August, the lowest since January 2024 and July 2023, respectively[6] Group 2: Housing Market Trends - Existing home sales in the US totaled 3.86 million units in August, down 4.22% year-on-year and 2.53% month-on-month; new home sales were 716,000 units, up 9.82% year-on-year but down 4.66% month-on-month[9] - The median sales price of existing homes rose by 3.1% year-on-year to $416,700, while the median price of new homes fell by 4.6% year-on-year to $420,600, marking the seventh consecutive month of decline[9] - The MBA refinancing index increased by 20.3% to 1132.90, the highest level since April 2022, indicating a recovery in housing demand[9] Group 3: Market Expectations and Commodity Prices - The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the US rose from -24.2 at the end of August to -6.1 in September, an increase of nearly 75%[12] - Precious metals prices continued to rise, with gold and silver up by 1.3% in the week of September 23-27, 2024, due to anticipated interest rate cuts[13] - Oil prices fell by 2.3% due to supply-side disruptions, while agricultural prices saw significant increases, with soybeans, corn, and wheat rising by 5.3%, 3.9%, and 2.0%, respectively[13]

Policy and Economic Outlook - The Chinese government is increasing fiscal and monetary policy counter-cyclical adjustments to support economic growth[1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to lower the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, injecting approximately CNY 1 trillion into the financial market[12] - The Swiss National Bank has cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 1%, marking the third rate cut this year[1] Market Performance - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks rebounded strongly, returning to above 3000 points due to positive policy signals[1] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) continued to rise, indicating improved shipping demand, with a week-on-week increase of 6.73%[8] Commodity and Real Estate Trends - Brent crude oil prices fell to USD 71.98 per barrel, down 3.37% week-on-week and 24.48% year-on-year[8] - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities surged by 77.60% week-on-week, although it remains down 23.87% year-on-year[8] - The average price of rebar increased to CNY 3,552 per ton, reflecting a 4.56% week-on-week rise[18] Inflation and Currency - The onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the USD were recorded at 7.01 and 6.98, respectively, indicating a slight depreciation[1] - The average wholesale price of pork decreased to CNY 26.13 per kilogram, down 1.99% week-on-week[8] Upcoming Economic Indicators - Key indicators to watch this week include China's September manufacturing PMI and the U.S. September unemployment rate and non-farm payroll data[1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage industry [3]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector showed a strong performance with a weekly increase of approximately 26.1%, ranking first among primary sub-industries [2][7]. - The overall valuation of the food and beverage industry has recovered but remains at historically low levels [12]. Market Review - From September 23 to September 27, the Shanghai Composite Index experienced a rise of about 15.7%, with a total weekly trading volume of approximately 1,649.29 billion yuan. The food and beverage sector's trading volume was around 231.66 billion yuan [2][7]. - The sub-industry performance included significant gains in liquor and dairy products, with liquor II and dairy products leading with increases of 29.5% and 21.2%, respectively [9]. High-Frequency Data Tracking - Retail sales in August showed a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, with urban retail sales up by 1.8% and rural retail sales up by 3.9% [16]. - The Citigroup China Economic Surprise Index rose to -35.4 on September 27, indicating a slight recovery [18]. - August production data revealed a decline in liquor production by 10.2% year-on-year, while fresh milk prices continued to decrease, down 15.8% year-on-year [21][23]. Industry News and Company Announcements - Water Weaving announced a price increase of 10 yuan per bottle for its premium liquor starting October 1 [30]. - Eight Chinese liquor brands made it to the "Asia's 500 Most Valuable Brands" list, showcasing the growing influence of Chinese food and beverage brands [30]. - The company Water Weaving plans to cancel 858,200 shares from its 2021 buyback, reducing its registered capital accordingly [31].

证券研究报告—宏观研究周报 撰写日期：2024 年 09 月 24 日 人民币汇率偏强运行 宏观经济高频数据周报（2024 年 9 月 16 日-9 月 22 日） 本报告导读： 9 月 18 日，国务院总理李强主持召开国务院常务会议，研究促进创业 投资发展的有关举措。会议指出，要健全资本市场功能，进一步激发创业投 资市场活力。9 月 20 日，中国人民银行公布 1 年期 LPR 为 3.35%，5 年期以 上 LPR 为 3.85%，与上月持平。海外方面，当地时间 9 月 18 日，美联储将 联邦基金利率下调 50BP 至 4.75%~5.00%，这是美联储四年来首次降息。随 着美国降息，全球多地掀起一轮"降息潮"。中国香港金管局、南非央行、 卡塔尔央行、巴林央行、阿联酋央行及科威特央行均接连降息。但在全球掀 起"降息潮"的背景下，有些国家或按兵不动，有些或逆势而行。当地时间 9 月 19 日，英国央行宣布将基准利率维持在 5%不变，符合市场预期。同时， 英国央行维持缩表步伐，宣布将在未来 12 个月内削减 1000 亿英镑的债券 购买量。当地时间 9 月 20 日，日本央行公布利率决议，政策利率维持在 0 ...