Price Performance - As of September 27, 2024, Shanghai gold price closed at 597.16 CNY/gram, with a weekly increase of 1.51%[4] - COMEX gold closed at 2649.9 USD/ounce, with a weekly increase of 1.07%[4] - London spot gold closed at 2661.85 USD/ounce, with a weekly increase of 2.15%[4] Market Outlook - Short-term gold prices are expected to continue high-level fluctuations due to the initiation of the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle, providing support for gold prices[1] - Long-term investment opportunities in gold remain favorable, with expectations of a rising price center driven by geopolitical risks and declining long-term U.S. Treasury yields[1] Economic Indicators - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November 2024 are approximately 47.4%, while a 50 basis point cut has a probability of 52.6%[10] - The S&P 500 volatility index (VIX) recorded 16.96 points, an increase of 0.81 from the previous week, indicating rising market anxiety[10] ETF Holdings - As of September 27, 2024, SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 3.45 tons to approximately 871.94 tons, while iShares Gold ETF holdings increased by 1.38 tons to approximately 371.36 tons[6] Futures and Inventory - As of September 24, 2024, CFTC COMEX non-commercial net long positions in gold increased by 5,324 contracts to 387,572 contracts[14] - COMEX gold inventory increased by 279,222.44 ounces to 17.1773 million ounces as of September 27, 2024[14]

Group 1: Export Trends - China's export amount increased by $892.3 billion and trade surplus by $471.2 billion from 2018 to 2023[1] - Exports to ASEAN and emerging economies have significantly increased, with ASEAN becoming China's largest trading partner, accounting for over 16% of total exports[1] - The share of exports to developed economies (US and EU) decreased from approximately 38% in 2018 to about 32% in 2024, a decline of nearly 6 percentage points[1] Group 2: Product Structure Changes - High-end manufacturing products, particularly electromechanical products, accounted for nearly 42% of China's exports in 2023, with a significant increase of $313.9 billion from 2018 to 2023[1] - Exports of low-value-added products like textiles have decreased in growth, indicating a shift towards higher value-added industries[1] - The export structure is diversifying, with significant growth in high-tech products such as electric vehicles and lithium batteries, which contributed $136.4 billion to export growth[1] Group 3: Trade Partner Dynamics - The trade surplus with the US increased by only $12.8 billion from 2018 to 2023, while the US trade deficit grew by $202.8 billion during the same period[1] - Exports to Latin America, particularly Brazil and Argentina, showed a strong increase in high-end manufacturing and chemical products, reflecting rising consumption in these regions[1] - The trade dynamics with Middle Eastern countries also indicate a strong demand for high-end manufacturing products, with exports to this region increasing by $71.5 billion[1] Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - The report highlights potential risks including slower global economic recovery and rising trade protectionism, which could impact future export growth[2] - Despite potential downturns in demand from developed economies, the resilience of emerging markets is expected to support China's export growth moving forward[2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the media industry, indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market average over the next six months [3][25]. Core Insights - The media sector saw a weekly increase of 1.37%, slightly outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.32%. The sector ranked sixteenth among the Shenwan first-level industries, with a total trading volume of 46.509 billion yuan over three trading days [2][7]. - All Shenwan second-level sub-sectors experienced gains except for publishing, which declined by 1.44%. The advertising and marketing sector led the gains with a 3.57% increase, followed by digital media (2.96%), television broadcasting (1.77%), film and cinema (0.85%), and gaming (0.81%) [2][9]. - The number of moviegoers in the 38th week of 2024 was 6.9023 million, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 40.88% and a week-on-week decline of 3.39%. However, the average box office per screening increased to 223.82 yuan, up 20.53% year-on-year and 11.01% week-on-week [15][17]. - The popularity of short dramas reached a heat index of 437 million, indicating significant engagement on relevant platforms [20]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The media sector's performance was highlighted with a 1.37% increase, outperforming the CSI 300 index [2][7]. - The publishing sector was the only one to decline, while advertising and marketing saw the highest increase [9][11]. 2. Industry Data Tracking - Movie attendance showed a seasonal decline, with significant year-on-year and week-on-week drops [15]. - The average box office per screening showed a positive trend despite a slight decrease in the number of screenings [17]. - Short drama engagement metrics indicate a strong interest in this content format [20]. 3. Industry News Summary - ByteDance launched an AI music generation tool, Seed-Music, which allows users to create music through various inputs, showcasing significant innovation in the field [3][22]. - Alibaba's Qwen-Max model was upgraded, showing substantial improvements in performance metrics, which is expected to enhance AI applications across industries [3][23]. - The gaming industry reported a revenue of 33.64 billion yuan in August 2024, with notable contributions from the game "Black Myth: Wukong" [3][23].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The mechanical equipment industry experienced an overall increase of 1.58% from September 16 to September 20, 2024, with engineering machinery showing the highest growth at 3.85% [2][8] - The domestic average daily sales of passenger cars reached 63,000 units during the week of September 9 to September 15, 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 26% [3][17] - In August 2024, China's imports of integrated circuits amounted to $33.08 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [20] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - From September 16 to September 20, the mechanical equipment industry saw a rise of 1.58%, ranking 15th among sectors [2][8] - The highest increase was in engineering machinery at 3.85%, followed by specialized equipment (+1.78%), general equipment (+0.94%), and automation equipment (+0.77%). The rail transit equipment II sector had the smallest increase at 0.27% [2][8] 2. Industry Data Tracking - The average daily sales of passenger cars in China were 63,000 units for the week of September 9 to September 15, 2024, a 26% increase year-on-year [3][17] - For the first half of September, retail sales of passenger cars reached 828,000 units, up 18% year-on-year [3][17] - In August 2024, the total retail sales of automobiles amounted to 394.3 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 7.3% but a month-on-month increase of 3.8% [3][17] 3. Industry News Announcements - In August, the total working hours of engineering machinery in China increased by 4.4% month-on-month, with a national operating rate of 50.01% [4][24] - The domestic sales of excavators in September are estimated to be around 7,300 units, with a year-on-year growth of nearly 17% [4][24] - The overall sales of excavators in China for the first nine months of 2024 are expected to show a year-on-year decline of about 1%, with domestic sales increasing over 8% [4][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services industry [3][30]. Core Insights - The social services industry experienced a 2.02% increase from September 18 to September 20, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by approximately 0.69 percentage points, ranking 8th among major sectors [2][7]. - The education sector led the gains within the industry, with a rise of 4.75%, followed by the hotel and catering, tourism and scenic spots, and professional services sectors, which increased by 4.75%, 2.08%, 1.15%, and 1.03% respectively [2][9]. - Domestic travel during the Mid-Autumn Festival saw 107 million trips, a 6.3% increase compared to the same period in 2019, with total spending reaching 51.047 billion yuan, an 8.0% increase [3][24]. - The average daily number of domestic flights was 12,351, a decrease of 2.06% week-on-week and 1.80% year-on-year [17]. - Hainan's tourism consumption price index rose to 120.34, reflecting a 24.74% increase week-on-week and an 18.81% increase year-on-year [19]. - Duty-free sales in August 2024 reached 2.197 billion yuan, a 31.09% increase from July but a 33.12% decrease year-on-year [22]. Summary by Sections Industry Weekly Performance - The social services industry outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index with a 2.02% increase, ranking 8th among major sectors [2][7]. - The education sector had the highest weekly trading volume at 5.996 billion yuan and an average turnover rate of 85.91% [12]. Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - The average daily domestic flight count was 12,351, down 2.06% from the previous week [17]. - Hainan's tourism consumption price index increased to 120.34, up 24.74% week-on-week [19]. - Duty-free sales for the first eight months of 2024 totaled 22.33 billion yuan, a 30.69% decrease year-on-year [22]. Industry News and Company Announcements - Domestic travel during the Mid-Autumn Festival reached 107 million trips, with total spending of 51.047 billion yuan [3][24]. - Shenzhen's border control recorded over 165 million entry and exit trips this year, surpassing the total for 2023 [25].

证券研究报告—消费行业周报 撰写日期：2024 年 09 月 24 日 食品饮料行业周报(2024 年第 39 周) 摘要 市场行情回顾：9 月 16 日至 9 月 20 日，沪深 300 涨跌幅约 1.3%，大 盘略有回升；沪深 300 周成交额约 4692.2 亿元。食品饮料板块涨跌幅约 0.2%，一级子行业排名第 24，跑输沪深 300 约 1.1pct；成交额约 663.0 亿 元。食品饮料二级行业表现来看，休闲食品、非白酒 5 日涨幅为 4.2%、3.8%， 食品加工、饮料乳品、调味发酵品Ⅱ、白酒Ⅱ涨跌幅分别为+2.2%、+1.9%、 +1.9%、-0.8%。截止 9 月 20 日, 食品饮料行业整体处于历史估值低位。 行业高频数据跟踪：1）8 月社零同比+2.1%，其中城镇消费品零售额 同比+1.8%，乡村消费品零售额同比+3.9%。2）9 月 20 日，花旗中国经济意 外指数为-39.1, 较 9 月 13 日（上一周）下降 5.4，有所回落。3）白酒： 8 月中国白酒当月产量达25.6 万千升，同比-10.2%；1-8 月累计产量达261.9 万千升，同比-2.1%。4）乳制品：9 月 12 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperforming the Market" for the first time [2] Core Insights - The global e-commerce market is steadily growing, with a market size reaching $5.8 trillion in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10% and a CAGR of 14.8% [10] - Cross-border e-commerce is rapidly expanding, driven by China's manufacturing advantages and the increasing demand for high-quality, cost-effective products [2][10] - Emerging platforms like Temu, Shein, and TikTok Shop are reshaping the market landscape, posing significant competition to established players like Amazon [2][17] Summary by Sections Global E-commerce Growth - The global e-commerce market is projected to reach $6.9 trillion by 2025, with a penetration rate in retail expected to rise from 13.8% in 2019 to 19.4% in 2023 [10] - B2C e-commerce is showing significant growth potential, with cross-border e-commerce expected to grow at a CAGR of 29.3%, reaching $7.9 trillion by 2030 [13] China's Cross-border E-commerce Opportunities - China's cross-border e-commerce transaction volume reached 13.2 trillion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 13.3% over the past five years [28] - The demand for high-quality, cost-effective products is driving the growth of cross-border e-commerce, with logistics and import/export policies being key influencing factors [28][42] Emerging Platforms and Market Dynamics - Temu has rapidly gained traction with a GMV of $14 billion in 2023, leveraging a low-price strategy and extensive advertising [62] - Shein, initially focused on fashion, is expanding into a broader range of categories while maintaining a strong supply chain and user engagement through social media [69][74] - TikTok Shop is capitalizing on its vast user base and content-driven sales model, with a focus on engaging younger consumers [79] Regional Market Insights - The U.S. remains the largest export destination for China's cross-border e-commerce, accounting for 35.1% of total exports, followed by the UK, Germany, and France [19] - Southeast Asia is identified as a high-potential market, with a growing e-commerce sector projected to reach $139 billion in GMV by 2023 [24] Competitive Landscape - Amazon continues to dominate the global e-commerce market with a GMV of approximately $700 billion in 2023, but faces increasing competition from emerging platforms [47] - The report highlights the diverse operational models of platforms, including self-operated, third-party, and independent sites, each with unique advantages [45][62][69]

证券研究报告—宏观研究周报 撰写日期：2024 年 09 月 23 日 海外需求观察——2024 年第 39 周 当地时间 9 月 18 日，美联储发布 FOMC 声明，宣布将联邦基金利 率目标区间下调 50BP 至 4.75-5.00%，为美联储近 4 年来首次降息。 美联储继续认为美国经济活动以稳健的速度扩张，但对就业市场的描 述从降温调整为放缓；对通胀率持续向 2%迈进有了更大的信心。上述 描述均符合近期通胀和就业数据表现的趋势，而近期非农数据表现不 及预期也使得美联储对就业市场下行风险更加关注，美联储在声明中 也新增强调致力于支持最大就业。新闻发布会上，美联储主席鲍威尔 表明 50BP 的降息幅度并非是常态，更像是"校准式"降息，并且不 应将大幅降息看作是美国经济衰退临近，整体表态偏鹰，导致资本市 场价格冲高回落。美联储 9 月降息也宣告着本轮降息周期正式开启， 最新公布的点阵图显示未来大致还有 200BP 的降息空间，2024 年内 还有望降息 50BP。 总体来看，美国通胀温和回落、劳动力市场尚未失速下行，风险 相对可控，美联储"校准式"降息将助力美国经济更稳健地实现"软 着陆"。此外，美国降息周 ...

证券研究报告—宏观研究周报 撰写日期：2024 年 09 月 23 日 海外需求观察——2024 年第 39 周 当地时间 9 月 18 日，美联储发布 FOMC 声明，宣布将联邦基金利 率目标区间下调 50BP 至 4.75-5.00%，为美联储近 4 年来首次降息。 美联储继续认为美国经济活动以稳健的速度扩张，但对就业市场的描 述从降温调整为放缓；对通胀率持续向 2%迈进有了更大的信心。上述 描述均符合近期通胀和就业数据表现的趋势，而近期非农数据表现不 及预期也使得美联储对就业市场下行风险更加关注，美联储在声明中 也新增强调致力于支持最大就业。新闻发布会上，美联储主席鲍威尔 表明 50BP 的降息幅度并非是常态，更像是"校准式"降息，并且不 应将大幅降息看作是美国经济衰退临近，整体表态偏鹰，导致资本市 场价格冲高回落。美联储 9 月降息也宣告着本轮降息周期正式开启， 最新公布的点阵图显示未来大致还有 200BP 的降息空间，2024 年内 还有望降息 50BP。 总体来看，美国通胀温和回落、劳动力市场尚未失速下行，风险 相对可控，美联储"校准式"降息将助力美国经济更稳健地实现"软 着陆"。此外，美国降息周 ...

证券研究报告—宏观研究周报 撰写日期：2024 年 09 月 22 日 1 黄金周度观察——2024 年第 39 周 摘要 上周黄金价格震荡，沪金表现弱于伦敦现货黄金。截至 2024 年 9 月 20日，上金所金价收报588.30元/克，周涨幅0.99%；COMEX黄金收报2621.80 美元/盎司，周涨幅 1.63%；伦敦现货黄金收报 2605.85 美元/盎司，周涨幅 1.19%。 短期来看，黄金价格将延续高位震荡。美联储 9 月议息会议宣布将联 邦基金利率目标区间下调 50BP 至 4.75%-5%，为 4 年来首次降息；但鲍威尔 在会后新闻发布会的措辞偏鹰，提示 50BP 的降息幅度并不是常态，贵金属 价格冲高回落。点阵图显示年内还有 50BP 的降息空间，仍将对黄金价格形 成一定支撑。 长期来看，黄金依旧存在较好的投资机会。美联储降息周期正式开启， 长端美债利率存在下行空间，黄金价格中枢有望持续抬升。此外，全球经济 和地缘政治的不确定性风险仍存，黄金具备较强的配置价值。。 风险提示：美国经济数据超预期，美联储货币政策不及预期，地缘政 治风险。 麦高证券 研究发展部 分析师：王湘萍 资格证书：S065 ...