Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the media industry, indicating expected performance above the market over the next six months [2][3]. Core Insights - The media sector outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, with a weekly increase of 7.25% compared to the index's 0.98% rise, ranking fourth among Shenwan's primary industries [6][10]. - The gaming sub-sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio has risen to over 50%, reflecting strong investor interest and valuation increases [2][10]. - The report highlights the continued growth in mobile gaming exports, with significant contributions from companies like miHoYo and Tencent, indicating a robust international market presence [18][19]. Summary by Sections Market Review - During the week of October 14-18, 2024, the media sector saw a total transaction volume of 247.17 billion yuan, with all six sub-sectors experiencing gains [6][10]. - The gaming sub-sector led the gains with a 10.83% increase, followed by film and television, advertising, digital media, publishing, and television broadcasting [7][8]. Industry Data Tracking - The number of moviegoers in the 42nd week was 12.837 million, a decrease of 8.97% year-on-year and a significant drop of 74.58% week-on-week [13]. - The average box office per screening fell to 298.81 yuan, although this represents a 26.21% increase compared to the same week last year [15]. - The popularity of short dramas remained stable, with a heat index of 440 million [17]. Industry News Summary - The report notes that in September, 35 Chinese companies made it to the global mobile game publisher revenue list, collectively earning 1.91 billion USD, which accounts for 36% of the total [18]. - The Chinese gaming market reached a record high revenue of 91.766 billion yuan in Q3 2024, marking an 8.95% year-on-year increase [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social service industry, indicating a projected growth of over 5% relative to the benchmark index in the next six months [3][29]. Core Insights - The social service industry experienced a 4.50% increase from October 14 to October 18, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by approximately 3.52 percentage points, ranking it sixth among major sectors [6][7]. - The education sector led the gains within the social service industry, with a remarkable increase of 9.41%, followed by professional services at 4.10%, tourism and scenic spots at 3.61%, and hotel and catering at 1.07% [8][9]. - The report highlights a strong recovery in the social service industry driven by policy support and market demand, particularly in tourism and education sectors [21][22]. Industry Performance Analysis - The average daily number of domestic flights from October 14 to October 20 was 12,680, reflecting a 3.00% decrease from the previous week but a 4.56% increase compared to the same period in 2023 [13][15]. - The tourism consumption price index in Hainan was recorded at 83.76, showing a significant 29.91% decrease from the previous week and an 18.40% decline year-on-year [15][16]. - The education sector had the highest trading volume at 27.917 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 98.31%, while the professional services sector had a trading volume of 16.701 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 95.93% [9][10]. Industry News and Developments - The National Immigration Administration reported that 160 million people entered and exited the country in the third quarter, marking a 30.1% year-on-year increase, with significant growth in foreign tourists [19]. - The Central Committee and the State Council issued guidelines to enhance the quality of doctoral education, aiming to cultivate urgently needed talents for national strategic needs [22]. - The upcoming "Double Eleven" shopping festival is expected to significantly boost outbound tourism, with promotional activities from major platforms enhancing market competition [20][21].

Price Movement - As of October 18, 2024, Shanghai gold price closed at 616.8 CNY/gram, with a weekly increase of 3.27%[5] - COMEX gold closed at 2719.6 USD/ounce, reflecting a weekly rise of 2.43%[5] - London spot gold was priced at 2712.5 USD/ounce, showing a weekly gain of 2.40%[5] Short-term Outlook - Gold prices are expected to continue fluctuating at high levels due to the Federal Reserve's cautious approach to interest rate cuts, with a remaining space for cuts this year[1] - Geopolitical conflicts are likely to influence risk aversion, further supporting gold prices[1] Long-term Investment Opportunities - The commencement of the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle suggests a downward trend in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, potentially raising the central price of gold[1] - Global economic challenges and geopolitical risks enhance gold's value as a safe-haven asset[1] Market Sentiment - As of October 18, 2024, the market anticipates a 90.8% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November[10] - The S&P 500 volatility index (VIX) decreased to 18.03 points, indicating reduced market panic[10] ETF Holdings - SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 10.65 tons to approximately 888.63 tons as of October 18, 2024[7] - iShares Gold ETF holdings rose by 1.35 tons to about 377.13 tons during the same period[7] Futures and Inventory - As of October 15, 2024, CFTC COMEX non-commercial net long positions in gold reached 286,434 contracts, an increase of 8,254 contracts from the previous week[15] - COMEX gold inventory decreased by 55,300 ounces to 1,699,280 ounces as of October 18, 2024[15]

Export Data - In September 2024, China's export value was $303.71 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.4%, down 6.3 percentage points from August[1] - The trade surplus in September was $81.71 billion, a decrease of $9.31 billion from the previous month[1] - Exports to the EU showed a significant slowdown, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.32%, down from 13.40%[9] Import Data - In September 2024, China's import value was $222.00 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from August[1] - Imports from the EU decreased by 1.81 percentage points to -3.49% year-on-year[13] - Imports from the US, Japan, and ASEAN also saw declines, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.68%, -7.11%, and 4.23% respectively[13] Market Outlook - The global economic growth rate is below the average level of the first two decades of this century, as reported by the IMF[1] - The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank both lowered their economic growth forecasts by 0.1 percentage points in September[1] - Despite short-term disruptions from extreme weather, exports may rebound as these factors subside[1]

Group 1: Social Financing Overview - In September 2024, the social financing scale increased by 37,634 billion yuan, but this was a year-on-year decrease of 3,692 billion yuan[1] - The growth rate of social financing stock continued to decline by 0.1 percentage points to 8.0%[5] - Government bond issuance significantly accelerated since August, becoming the main support for social financing, while credit remains a major drag[5] Group 2: Loan and Financing Details - New RMB loans in September amounted to 15,900 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7,200 billion yuan[7] - In the household sector, loans increased by 5,000 billion yuan, down 3,585 billion yuan year-on-year, marking eight consecutive months of decline[7] - New government bond financing reached 15,357 billion yuan, an increase of 5,437 billion yuan year-on-year[5] Group 3: Monetary Aggregates - M2 recorded a year-on-year growth of 6.8%, up 0.5 percentage points from August, while M1's year-on-year decline widened to -7.4%, hitting a historical low[10] - The "scissors gap" between M1 and M2 expanded to 14.2%[10] - Non-bank deposits increased year-on-year, likely due to a recovery in the stock market at the end of September[10]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [42] Core Insights - The electronic industry experienced a slight decline of -0.02% in the week of October 7-11, 2024, outperforming major market indices which saw declines ranging from -3.3% to -4.5% [6][8] - The semiconductor sector showed a significant increase of 4.4%, while other segments like optical optoelectronics and consumer electronics faced declines of -5.3% and -3.4% respectively [8][11] - Predictions indicate a substantial reduction in the price increase of DRAM memory in Q4 2024, with LPDDR4X Mobile DRAM expected to decrease by 5%-10%, potentially improving smartphone manufacturers' profit margins [33] - The global notebook market is projected to maintain growth in 2024, driven by strong demand in the low-end market and promotional activities such as back-to-school and Double Eleven [35] Market Overview - The electronic industry ranked first among 31 sectors in terms of performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by -3.6% during the same period [6] - The semiconductor sector had the highest trading volume at 728.56 billion yuan, followed by consumer electronics at 244.6 billion yuan [11] Industry News - DRAM prices are expected to stabilize in Q4 2024, with a forecasted increase of 8%-13% for overall DRAM prices, while PC DRAM prices are expected to remain stable [33] - LCD TV panel prices are anticipated to stop declining in October due to improved demand from "old-for-new" policies and supply-side production controls [34] - The global notebook market showed a strong recovery in the first three quarters of 2024, with a projected year-on-year growth of 4% [35] Company Announcements - Dinglong Co. reported a revenue of 2.41 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 28.7%, with net profit expected to grow by 108%-115% [36] - Weir Co. forecasted a net profit of 2.27-2.47 billion yuan for the same period, reflecting a growth of 515.4%-569.6% [38] - Yuchip Technology projected a revenue of 470 million yuan, up 23.9%, with net profit increasing by 51.1% [39] - Yutong Optical announced a net profit of 130-140 million yuan, marking a growth of 208.6%-242.3% [40] - Rockchip Microelectronics expects a revenue of 2.16 billion yuan, with a net profit growth of 339.8%-365.6% [41]

Inflation Data - In September, the CPI increased by 0.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[6] - The core CPI recorded a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous value[8] - Food prices rose by 3.3% year-on-year, while non-food prices fell by 0.2% year-on-year[10][11] PPI Trends - The PPI decreased by 2.8% year-on-year, a decline of 1 percentage point from the previous month[6] - The PPI recorded a month-on-month decrease of 0.6%[15] - Production materials saw a year-on-year decline of 3.3%, marking 24 consecutive months of negative growth[15] Market Insights - Effective domestic demand remains insufficient, impacting inflation and production prices[20] - The manufacturing PMI index rebounded, indicating potential improvement in economic conditions[20] - Risks include policy implementation falling short of expectations and domestic economic slowdown exceeding forecasts[20]

Policy and Economic Measures - The Chinese government is implementing a package of incremental policies to promote economic recovery and structural improvement[1] - A joint working group has been established by the People's Bank of China and the Ministry of Finance to manage central bank bond trading, enhancing liquidity management[1] - The Ministry of Finance plans to introduce targeted incremental policy measures and reform initiatives over the next two years[1] Market Indicators - For the week of October 7-13, upstream high-frequency indicators showed mixed year-on-year changes, while midstream indicators rebounded month-on-month[1] - The Brent crude oil price increased by 9.81% to $79.04 per barrel, but decreased by 13.04% year-on-year[6] - The LME copper price decreased by 2.67% to $9,596.50 per ton, with a year-on-year increase of 21.61%[6] Real Estate and Land Transactions - The transaction area for residential properties in 30 major cities was 218.41 million square meters, down 5.96% month-on-month and 12.02% year-on-year[15] - The land transaction area in 100 major cities recorded 1,605.93 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 34.34% and a year-on-year decrease of 13.22%[15] Inflation and Consumer Prices - The average wholesale price of pork was 25.02 yuan per kilogram, down 4.25% month-on-month but up 15.30% year-on-year[16] - The consumer price index for vegetables increased by 25.66% year-on-year, with an average price of 6.22 yuan per kilogram[16]

Inflation Data - The US September CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year, narrowing by 0.1 percentage points from the previous value, and rose by 0.2% month-on-month, unchanged from the previous value[1] - Core CPI rose by 3.3% year-on-year, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous value, and increased by 0.3% month-on-month, also unchanged from the previous value, both exceeding market expectations by 0.1 percentage points[1] - The energy prices continued to decline, contributing to the overall decrease in CPI, while service prices, particularly rent, remained sticky, indicating potential inflationary risks ahead[1] Employment and Interest Rate Expectations - Initial jobless claims for the week ending October 5 recorded 258,000, exceeding market expectations of 230,000, marking a 14-month high[1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November is 83.2%, while the probability of no cut is 16.8%[1] Consumer Confidence and Retail Sales - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for October recorded 68.9, down 1.2 from the previous value, ending a two-month upward trend but still above last year's level[1] - The US Redbook retail sales year-on-year showed a significant rebound at the end of September and early October, indicating resilience in US consumption[1] Emerging Markets Observations - South Korea's exports for the first 10 days of October increased by 33.2% year-on-year, with semiconductor exports rising by 45.5%[1] - Vietnam's consumer spending growth marginally declined to 1.4% in September, with services dragging down the overall performance[1] - Brazil's import growth remained above 10% for four consecutive months, with September exports reversing previous negative growth, rising to 0.26%[1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the mechanical equipment industry [4]. Core Insights - The mechanical equipment industry experienced an overall decline of 5.11% from October 8 to October 11, 2024, with the smallest drop in rail transit equipment II at 2.40% and the largest in general equipment at 5.91% [2][11]. - The report highlights a significant increase in the average working hours for major engineering machinery products, which rose by 3.99% month-on-month in September 2024, indicating a recovery in operational activity [4][24]. - The automotive market showed mixed signals, with a year-on-year decline of 8% in daily average sales for passenger cars during the last week of September, but a month-on-month increase of 20% [3][18]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The mechanical equipment industry saw a decline of 5.11% during the specified period, ranking 15th among sectors [8]. - The trading volume was highest in the general equipment sector at 188.3 billion yuan, while rail transit equipment II had the lowest at 38.2 billion yuan [13][15]. Industry Data Tracking - In September 2024, the average daily sales of passenger cars were 102,000 units, reflecting an 8% year-on-year decrease but a 20% increase compared to the previous month [3][18]. - The import of integrated circuits reached 33.08 billion USD in August 2024, marking an 11.7% year-on-year increase, while the export of electromechanical products was 183.55 billion USD, up 12.4% year-on-year [20]. Industry News Announcements - The average working hours for major engineering machinery products in September 2024 were reported at 90 hours, with a month-on-month increase of 3.99% [4][24]. - The machine tool industry saw a revenue decline of 3.5% year-on-year for key enterprises from January to August 2024, although profitability remained overall positive [4][24].