行业平均市盈率 29.13 或有分化 投资摘要： 每周一谈 市场回顾： 上周证券行业指数涨跌幅落后于沪深 300 指数，行业内个股多数上涨，但也有三 分之一左右个股出现下跌，显示行业内部的分化特征。我们认为证券行业依然存 在着调整的压力和分化的可能性。 2024 年 12 月 30 日 行业基本资料 资料来源：wind，申港证券研究所 2、《短期或维持高位震荡：证券行业周 报》2024-12-18 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1. 每周一谈 1—11 月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额 66674.8 亿元，同比下降 4.7% （按可比口径计算，详见附注二）。 1—11 月份，主要行业利润情况如下：有色金属冶炼和压延加工业利润同比增 长 20.2%，电力、热力生产和供应业增长 13.5%，纺织业增长 4.6%，计算机、通信 和其他电子设备制造业增长 2.9%，农副食品加工业增长 0.5%，通用设备制造业下 降 0.1%，专用设备制造业下降 0.9%，电气机械和器材制造业下降 3.1%，石油和天 然气开采业下降 4.4%，汽车制造业下降 7.3%，化学原料和化学制品制造业下降 9.3%， 煤炭开 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Increase" for the industry [5] Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a significant increase in demand driven by advancements in AI applications and hardware integration, particularly in edge devices [33][59] - The report highlights the strong performance of the semiconductor sector, with the Shenwan Electronics Industry Index rising 3.55% in the last week, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.69% [20][26] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic substitution and AI-driven demand in shaping investment opportunities within semiconductor equipment and materials companies [33] Market Review - The Shenwan Electronics Industry Index increased by 5.45% from December 1 to December 20, ranking second among 31 industries [20] - Year-to-date, the index has risen by 24.38%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 9.91% [20] - Key sub-sectors such as digital chip design, printed circuit boards, and integrated circuit packaging have shown strong performance, with respective outperformance against the CSI 300 Index of 9.26%, 6.27%, and 4.41% [26] AI Model Developments - ByteDance's release of the Doubao visual understanding model has significantly increased the usage of AI in smart terminals, with a daily token usage exceeding 4 trillion, a 33-fold increase since May [30] - OpenAI's o3 model has demonstrated enhanced reasoning capabilities, achieving scores of 87.5% and 75.7% in high and low computational settings, respectively [32] - The report notes that the integration of AI models with various smart devices is expected to drive the popularity of AI applications in consumer electronics [33] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on semiconductor equipment and materials companies that benefit from domestic substitution and AI demand, including North China Huachuang, Zhongwei Company, and Huahai Qingke [33] - It also highlights investment opportunities in consumer electronics and AI-related supply chains, such as Luxshare Precision and Lens Technology [33]

资料来源：Wind，申港证券研究所 电池订阅服务：宁德时代在发布会上公布了"磷酸铁锂版"换电电池租赁价格， 并与 30 家企业签订了 10.75 万块电池订阅服务。 电动化和智能化的优质赛道核心标的，如华阳集团、德赛西威、瑞可达、科博达、 伯特利等； 汽车行业周涨幅前五个股分别为：上海凤凰、科博达、华懋科技、祥鑫科技、浙江 黎明。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------|-------|--------|----------|-------|----------|----------|-------|-------|-------|-------|--------|----------|--------|----------|----------|----------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that among the 31 primary industry indices tracked, 3 indices increased while 28 indices decreased last week. The top five performing industries were communication, electronics, banking, computer, and public utilities. The bottom five were light industry manufacturing, real estate, building materials, commercial retail, and social services [3][34]. - The major indices showed a decline last week, with the CSI 300 down by 0.14%, the Shanghai Composite down by 0.70%, the Shenzhen Component down by 0.62%, the ChiNext down by 1.15%, and the CSI 500 down by 1.19% [5][13][34]. - The total trading volume was approximately 6,770.70 billion shares, with a trading value of about 76,148.69 billion yuan. There were 1,209 stocks that increased in price while 4,126 stocks decreased [17][35]. Group 2 - The report notes that the number of stocks reaching historical highs was 21, while 6 stocks reached historical lows. The number of stocks reaching new highs over the past 30, 60, and 120 days were 323, 201, and 163 respectively. Conversely, the number of stocks reaching new lows over the same periods were 108, 60, and 12 [6][38][50]. - Margin trading data indicates that the weekly margin balance increased by approximately 1.1 billion yuan, while the short selling balance decreased by about 0.3 billion yuan [4][49]. Group 3 - The market is currently experiencing a cooling trend, characterized by a significant reduction in trading volume and a decrease in the number of stocks that increased in price compared to the previous week. The report suggests that the market is in a high-level consolidation phase, with potential for increased volatility in certain stocks [7][53][61].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the central economic work conference has prioritized boosting consumption as a key focus for economic development in the coming year, which is expected to improve the demand fundamentals across various sub-sectors of the food and beverage industry [17][25] - The food and beverage index rose by 2.01% in the week of December 9-13, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.02%, ranking 7th among 31 industries [9][14] - The report suggests that the upcoming festive season will likely drive sales in specific segments, particularly in leisure foods and the restaurant supply chain [25][26] Market Review - The food and beverage index increased by 2.01% last week, with sub-sectors such as pre-processed foods, soft drinks, baked goods, snacks, and beer outperforming the CSI 300 index by 13.04%, 12.69%, 11.94%, 11.84%, and 7.69% respectively [14][9] - Year-to-date, the food and beverage index has decreased by 4.84%, ranking 29th among 31 industries, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 19.48% [8][9] Investment Strategy - The report recommends identifying investment opportunities in high-end liquor brands such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, as well as in beer companies like Yanjing Beer that are expected to benefit from operational improvements and cost reductions [26] - It also suggests focusing on resilient condiment companies like Haitian Flavoring and Angel Yeast, and on food supply chain companies such as Anjuke Food and Qianwei Central Kitchen for potential recovery opportunities [26][25]

行 业 研 究 短期或维持高位震荡 ——证券行业周报 投资摘要： 每周一谈 评级 增持（维持） 2024 年 12 月 16 日 2024 年 11 月份居民消费价格同比上涨 0.2% 其中，城市上涨 0.1%，农村上涨 0.2%；食品价格上涨 1.0%，非食品价格持平；消费品价格持平，服务价格上涨 0.4%。1—11 月平均，全国居民消费价格比上年同期上涨 0.3%。 11 月份，全国 居民消费价格环比下降 0.6%。其中，城市下降 0.6%，农村下降 0.6%；食品价 格下降 2.7%，非食品价格下降 0.1%；消费品价格下降 0.7%，服务价格下降 0.3%。 市场回顾： 上周（12.9-12.13）沪深 300 指数的涨跌幅为-1.01%，申万二级行业指数证券行 业涨跌幅为-2.14%。板块内 11 家个股上涨，39 家个股下跌。 证券板块个股周度表现： 股价涨跌幅前五名为：国盛金控、国联证券、第一创业、哈投股份、南京证券。 股价涨跌幅后五名为：东方财富、光大证券、华林证券、中原证券、中国银河。 本周投资策略： 上周证券行业指数涨幅落后于沪深 300 指数，板块弹性表现的较为明显，板块的 高位震荡符合 ...

行 业 研 究 商品猪出栏均价周环比回升 标肥价差周 环比走阔 ——农林牧渔行业研究周报 投资摘要： 每周一谈：商品猪出栏均价回升 标肥价差周环比走阔 商品猪出栏均价周环比回升，仔猪均价周环比下跌 商品猪出栏均价周环比回升 0.38%。根据钢联数据，截至 12 月 13 日，商品 猪出栏均价 15.68 元/kg，周环比上涨 0.38%，在上一周出栏均价阶段性跌幅 较大情况下有所修复。 仔猪均价周环比下跌 2.55%，二元母猪均价周环比持平。截至 12 月 13 日， 钢联样本数据显示 7kg 仔猪均价 373.57 元/头，周环比下跌 2.55%。二元母 猪均价 1641.43 元/头，周环比持平。 淘汰母猪均价周环比下跌。截至 12 月 13 日，钢联样本企业淘汰母猪均价 11.45 元/kg，周环比下跌 8.03%。淘汰母猪与商品猪价格比值 0.73，较前一 周回落。 商品猪出栏均重周环比下跌，标肥价差周环比走阔 商品猪出栏均重周环比下跌，大猪出栏数占比周环比小幅提高。根据钢联数 据，截至 12 月 13 日，商品猪出栏均重 123.57kg、周环比下跌 0.11%，宰后 均重 91.94kg、周环比上 ...

行 业 研 究 11 月新能源汽车表现亮眼 ——汽车行业研究周报 投资摘要： 每周一谈：11 月新能源汽车表现亮眼 2024 年 11 月全国汽车销量、库存情况等数据公布，车企新车型持续发布，居民 购车需求持续释放，汽车市场热度延续，市场表现持续向好。新能源汽车销量增 速依然保持较高水平。伴随各项刺激政策效果不断显现，汽车销量有望继续攀升， 全年销量有望创历史新高。 总体销量：11 月汽车销量为 331.6 万辆，同比增加 11.7%。今年 1-11 月，汽车 累计销量为 2794 万辆，同比增长 3.7%。 库存情况：11 月汽车经销商综合库存系数为 1.1，同比减少 22.4%，环比增加 低估值零部件龙头，如华域汽车、福耀玻璃等；电动化和智能化的优质赛道核心 标的，如华阳集团、德赛西威、瑞可达、科博达、伯特利等；国产替代概念受益 股，如菱电电控、三花智控、星宇股份、上声电子、中鼎股份等；强势整车企业 对核心零部件的拉动效应，如拓普集团、文灿股份、旭升集团等。 本周重点关注组合：比亚迪 20%、理想汽车 20%、拓普集团 20%、德赛西威 20% 和上声电子 20%。 市场回顾： | --- | --- | ...

行 业 研 究 11 月动力电池装车量稳步增长 ——电力设备行业研究周报 投资摘要： 每周一谈：11 月动力电池装车量稳步增长 新能源汽车销量稳定增长。2024 年 11 月，我国新能源汽车销量为 151.2 万辆， 同比增长 47.38%，渗透率为 45.6%。2024 年 1-11 月，新能源汽车销量为 1126 万辆，同比增长 35.6%，渗透率为 40.3%。随着各大厂家加速向新能源转型，我 们对新能源车市场的发展保持长期乐观的态度。 装车增速依然可观。11 月，我国动力电池装车量 67.2GWh，同比增长 50%。2024 年 1-11 月，我国动力电池累计装车量 473GWh，同比增长 39%，增速依然可观， 维持较高水平。 磷酸铁锂动力电池装车量同比高增长。11 月，我国磷酸铁锂动力电池装车量 53.6 GWh，占总装车量 80%，同比增长 84%；三元动力电池装车量 13.6 GWh，占 总装车量 20%，同比减少 13.4%。2024 年 1-11 月，国内磷酸铁锂动力电池装车 量 348 GWh，占总装车量 74%，同比增长 51%；三元电池装车量 124.6 GWh， 占总装车量 26% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electronic industry [4]. Core Insights - The U.S. has implemented export controls on semiconductor equipment and software to China, affecting 136 Chinese semiconductor manufacturers and related entities. This may accelerate the domestic production of advanced semiconductor equipment and materials [2][25]. - OpenAI has initiated a 12-day product launch cycle, which is expected to catalyze growth in AI applications. The AI application sector has shown strong performance, with several companies reporting significant growth [3][28]. - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a shift towards domestic production due to export restrictions, which may alleviate supply pressures and enhance self-sufficiency [2][27]. Market Review - The Shenwan Electronics Industry Index rose by 1.61% from December 2 to December 6, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.16%. The index has increased by 19.85% year-to-date, ranking 5th among 31 industries [12][16]. - Within the electronics sub-industries, optical components, analog chip design, printed circuit boards, and consumer electronics parts showed relatively strong performance, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.89%, 2.87%, 2.68%, and 2.09% respectively [16][19]. Industry Dynamics - The global wafer foundry industry saw a 27% year-over-year revenue increase in Q3 2024, driven by strong AI demand and a faster-than-expected economic recovery in mainland China [36][38]. - The global semiconductor market is projected to reach $620.2 billion in 2024, with mainland China accounting for 30.1% of this market. The market is expected to grow by 17% year-over-year [39][40]. - Logic chips and memory chips are expected to see significant growth in 2024, with increases of 21% and 61.3% respectively, while other segments may experience declines [40].